Comparison of machine learning approaches and statistical methods for estimation of airborne chemical exposures

Accurate quantitative estimation of exposure using retrospective data has been one of the most challenging tasks in the exposure assessment field. To improve these estimates, some models have been developed using published exposure databases with their corresponding exposure determinants. These models are designed to be applied to reported exposure determinants obtained from study subjects or exposure levels assigned by an industrial hygienist, so quantitative exposure estimates can be obtained. ^ In an effort to improve the prediction accuracy and generalizability of these models, and taking into account that the limitations encountered in previous studies might be due to limitations in the applicability of traditional statistical methods and concepts, the use of computer science- derived data analysis methods, predominantly machine learning approaches, were proposed and explored in this study. ^ The goal of this study was to develop a set of models using decision trees/ensemble and neural networks methods to predict occupational outcomes based on literature-derived databases, and compare, using cross-validation and data splitting techniques, the resulting prediction capacity to that of traditional regression models. Two cases were addressed: the categorical case, where the exposure level was measured as an exposure rating following the American Industrial Hygiene Association guidelines and the continuous case, where the result of the exposure is expressed as a concentration value. Previously developed literature-based exposure databases for 1,1,1 trichloroethane, methylene dichloride and, trichloroethylene were used. ^ When compared to regression estimations, results showed better accuracy of decision trees/ensemble techniques for the categorical case while neural networks were better for estimation of continuous exposure values. Overrepresentation of classes and overfitting were the main causes for poor neural network performance and accuracy. Estimations based on literature-based databases using machine learning techniques might provide an advantage when they are applied to other methodologies that combine `expert inputs' with current exposure measurements, like the Bayesian Decision Analysis tool. The use of machine learning techniques to more accurately estimate exposures from literature-based exposure databases might represent the starting point for the independence from the expert judgment.^

Protein quaternary structure determination using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry and chemical crosslinking

A means of analyzing protein quaternary structure using matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI MS) and chemical crosslinking was evaluated. Proteins of known oligomeric structure, as well as monomeric proteins, were analyzed to evaluate the method. The quaternary structure of proteins of unknown or uncertain structure was investigated using this technique. The stoichiometry of recombinant E. coli carbamoyl phosphate synthetase and recombinant human farnesyl protein transferase were determined to be heterodimers using glutaraldehyde crosslinking, agreeing with the stoichiometry found for the wild type proteins. The stoichiometry of the gamma subunit of E. coli DNA polymerase III holoenzyme was determined in solution without the presence of other subunits to be a homotetramer using glutaraldehyde crosslinking and MALDI MS analysis. Chi and psi subunits of E. coli DNA polymerase III subunits appeared to form a heterodimer when crosslinked with heterobifunctional photoreactive crosslinkers.^ Comparison of relative % peak areas obtained from MALDI MS analysis of crosslinked proteins and densitometric scanning of silver stained sodium dodecyl sulfate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) gels showed excellent qualitative agreement for the two techniques, but the quantitative analyses differed, sometimes significantly. This difference in quantitation could be due to SDS-PAGE conditions (differential staining, loss of sample) or to MALDI MS conditions (differences in ionization and/or detection). Investigation of pre-purified crosslinked monomers and dimers recombined in a specific ratio revealed the presence of mass discrimination in the MALDI MS process. The calculation of mass discrimination for two different MALDI time-of-flight instruments showed the loss of a factor of approximately 2.6 in relative peak area as the m/z value doubles over the m/z range from 30,000 to 145,000 daltons.^ Indirect symmetry was determined for tetramers using glutaraldehyde crosslinking with MALDI MS analysis. Mathematical modelling and simple graphing allowed the determination of the symmetry for several tetramers known to possess isologous D2 symmetry. These methods also distinguished tetramers that did not fit D2 symmetry such as apo-avidin. The gamma tetramer of E. coli DNA polymerase III appears to have isologous D2 symmetry. ^

Using GIS methods to assess the occurrence of neural tube defect births by residential proximity at conception to hazardous waste sites

In the United States, approximately 4,000 pregnancies each year are affected by the two most common birth defects, spina bifida and anencephaly. Studies have shown that exposure to environmental chemicals before and after conception may adversely affect reproduction by inducing cell death or dysfunction, which leads to infertility, fetal loss, lowered weight at birth, or birth anomalies in the offspring. The objective of the study was to evaluate the relationship between Neural Tube Defect births and residence at conception in proximity to hazardous waste sites in the Texas-Mexico border region between 1993 and 2000. ^ The study design was a nested matched case-control and utilized secondary data from a project, “The role of chemical and biological factors in the etiology of neural tube birth defects births along the Texas-Mexico Border” (Irina Cech, Principal Investigator). Geographic Information Systems (GIS) database methods were used to compare Neural Tube Defects cases to controls on status of conception residence occurring within a one-mile radius from hazardous waste sites, as compared to conception residence further away. Information on the exposures was obtained from the OnTarget Database and Environment Protection Agency website. Conditional logistic regression was used for the matched case-control study to investigate the relationship between an outcome of being a case or a control and proximity to hazardous waste sites. ^ The result of the study showed a 36 percent non-significant increased risk of having an NTD birth associated with maternal proximity to abandoned hazardous waste sites (95% CI = 0.62–3.02). In addition, there was a 24% non-significant elevated risk of having an NTD birth when living in proximity to air pollutant sites than when living further away (95% CI = 0.67–2.32). Although this study did not find statistically significant associations, it will expand on the existing knowledge of the relationship between NTD and proximity to hazardous waste sites. ^

A comparative review of water disinfection methods appropriate for developing countries and their efficacy, cost-efficiency, and usability

Developing countries are heavily burdened by limited access to safe drinking water and subsequent water-related diseases. Numerous water treatment interventions combat this public health crisis, encompassing both traditional and less-common methods. Of these, water disinfection serves as an important means to provide safe drinking water. Existing literature discusses a wide range of traditional treatment options and encourages the use of multi-barrier approaches including coagulation-flocculation, filtration, and disinfection. Most sources do not delve into approaches specifically appropriate for developing countries, nor do they exclusively examine water disinfection methods.^ The objective of this review is to focus on an extensive range of chemical, physio-chemical, and physical water disinfection techniques to provide a compilation, description and evaluation of options available. Such an objective provides further understanding and knowledge to better inform water treatment interventions and explores alternate means of water disinfection appropriate for developing countries. Appropriateness for developing countries corresponds to the effectiveness of an available, easy to use disinfection technique at providing safe drinking water at a low cost.^ Among chemical disinfectants, SWS sodium hypochlorite solution is preferred over sodium hypochlorite bleach due to consistent concentrations. Tablet forms are highly recommended chemical disinfectants because they are effective and very easy to use, but also because they are stable. Examples include sodium dichloroisocyanurate, calcium hypochlorite, and chlorine dioxide, which vary in cost depending on location and availability. Among physio-chemical disinfection options, electrolysis which produces mixed oxidants (MIOX) provides a highly effective disinfection option with a higher upfront cost but very low cost over the long term. Among physical disinfection options, solar disinfection (SODIS) applications are effective, but they treat only a fixed volume of water at a time. They come with higher initial costs but very low on-going costs. Additional effective disinfection techniques may be suitable depending on the location, availability and cost.^

Use of short term test systems for the prediction of the hazard represented by potential chemical carcinogens

It has been hypothesized that results from the short term bioassays will ultimately provide information that will be useful for human health hazard assessment. Although toxicologic test systems have become increasingly refined, to date, no investigator has been able to provide qualitative or quantitative methods which would support the use of short term tests in this capacity.^ Historically, the validity of the short term tests have been assessed using the framework of the epidemiologic/medical screens. In this context, the results of the carcinogen (long term) bioassay is generally used as the standard. However, this approach is widely recognized as being biased and, because it employs qualitative data, cannot be used in the setting of priorities. In contrast, the goal of this research was to address the problem of evaluating the utility of the short term tests for hazard assessment using an alternative method of investigation.^ Chemical carcinogens were selected from the list of carcinogens published by the International Agency for Research on Carcinogens (IARC). Tumorigenicity and mutagenicity data on fifty-two chemicals were obtained from the Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances (RTECS) and were analyzed using a relative potency approach. The relative potency framework allows for the standardization of data "relative" to a reference compound. To avoid any bias associated with the choice of the reference compound, fourteen different compounds were used.^ The data were evaluated in a format which allowed for a comparison of the ranking of the mutagenic relative potencies of the compounds (as estimated using short term data) vs. the ranking of the tumorigenic relative potencies (as estimated from the chronic bioassays). The results were statistically significant (p $<$.05) for data standardized to thirteen of the fourteen reference compounds. Although this was a preliminary investigation, it offers evidence that the short term test systems may be of utility in ranking the hazards represented by chemicals which may be human carcinogens. ^

AN INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECT OF FORMALDEHYDE SPECIES ON ENVIRONMENTAL MEASUREMENT METHODS UNDER AMBIENT CONDITIONS

Species variations in formaldehyde solutions and gases were investigated by means of infrared spectral analysis. Double beam infrared spectrometry in conjunction with sodium chloride wafer technique and solvent compensation technique were employed. Formaldehyde species in various solutions were investigated. Formalin 37% was stable for many months. Refrigeration had no effects on its stability. Spectral changes were detected in 1000 ppm formaldehyde solutions. The absorbances of very diluted solutions up to 100 ppm were lower than the detection limit of the instruments. Solvent compensation improved resolution, but was associated with an observed lack of repeatability. Formaldehyde species in animal chambers containing animals and in mobile home air were analyzed with the infrared spectrophotometer equipped with a 10 cm gas cell. Spectra were not different from the spectrum of clean air. A portable single beam infrared spectrometer with a 20 meter pathlength was used for reinvestigation. Indoor formaldehyde could not be detected in the spectral; conversely, an absorption peak at 3.58 microns was found in the spectra of 3 and 15 ppm formaldehyde gas in animal chambers. This peak did not appear in the spectrum of the control chamber. Because of concerns over measurement bias among various analytical methods for formaldehyde, side-by-side comparisons were conducted in both laboratory and field measurements. The chromotropic acid method with water and 1% sodium bisulfite as collection media, the pararosaniline method, and a single beam infrared spectrometer were compared. Measurement bias was elucidated and the extent of the effects of temperature and humidity was also determined. The problems associated with related methods were discussed. ^