Poverty, Educational Attainment and Health Among America’s Children: Current and Future Effects of Population Diversification and Associated Socioeconomic Change

A complex of interrelated factors including minority status, poverty, education, health status, and other factors determine the general welfare of children in America, particularly in heavily diverse states such as Texas. Although racial/ethnic status is clearly only a concomitant factor in that determination it is a factor for which future projections are available and for which the relationships with the other factors in the complex can be assessed. After examining the nature of the interrelationships between these factors we utilize direct standardization techniques to examine how the future diversification of the United States and Texas will affect the number of children in poverty, the educational status of the householders in households in which children in poverty live and the health status of children in 2040 assuming that the current relationships between minority status and these socioeconomic factors continue into the future. In the results of the analyses, data are compared with the total population of the United States and Texas in 2040 assumed in the first simulation scenario, to have the race/ethnicity characteristics of 2008 and in the second those projected for 2040 by the U.S. Census Bureau for the nation and by the Texas State Data Center for Texas in 2040. The results show that the diversification of the population could increase the number of children in poverty in the United States by nearly 1.8 million more than would occur with the lower levels of diversification evident in 2008. In addition, poverty would become increasingly concentrated among minority children with minority children accounting for 76.2 percent of all children in poverty by 2040 and with Hispanic children accounting for nearly half of the children in poverty by 2040. Results for educational attainment show an increasing concentration of minority children in households with householders with very low levels of education such that by 2040, 85.2 percent of the increase in the number of children in poverty would be in households with a householder with less than a high school level of education. Finally, the results related to several health status factors show that children in poverty will have a higher prevalence of nearly all health conditions. For example, the number of children with untreated dental conditions could increase to more than 4 million in the United States and to nearly 500,000 in Texas. The results clearly show that improving the welfare of children in America will require concerted efforts to change the poverty, educational, and health status characteristics associated with minority status and particularly Hispanic status. Failing to do so will lead to a future in which America’s children are increasingly impoverished, more poorly educated, and less healthy and which, as a result, is an America with a more tentative future.

The contribution of change in ethnic composition to prevalence of obesity and overweight

Objective. The prevalence of overweight and obesity differs substantially among children of different ethnic origin in the United States. The objective of this project is to estimate to what extent changes in ethnic composition since 1980 have contributed to the current general “obesity epidemic” in the childhood population of the United States.^ Methods. Populations by single year of age, 0 to 19, male and female, for Hispanics, non-Hispanic whites, and non-Hispanic blacks, from the US Census’ July estimates for 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005 were taken and compared to the population and percentage of those groups from 1980. Age, sex, and ethnicity specific prevalence rates for overweight in 1980 were then applied to the populations by age for the specified year and differences in expected and actual overweight populations were assessed.^ Result. The results from this investigation provide estimates of the contribution that different ethnic groups have made to the overall prevalence of overweight and obesity in the childhood population of the United States. Assuming that the 1976-1980 prevalence rates had remained unchanged, and then comparing the population had there been no change in ethnic composition with the population given the actual change in ethnicity, the percentage increase was 1.06% in 1985, 1.72% in 1990, 2.57% in 1995, 3.95% in 2000, and 4.39% in 2005.^ Conclusion. The changes in ethnic composition of the population, independent of changes in ethnicity-specific prevalence, have contributed substantially to the current overall prevalence of obesity in the United States childhood population. There are a number of factors that may be responsible for the apparent susceptibility of Mexican-Americans and non-Hispanic blacks to overweight and obesity. Further research is needed on specific characteristics of those populations.^