Therapeutic Targeting of ATP7B in Ovarian Carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Resistance to platinum chemotherapy remains a significant problem in ovarian carcinoma. Here, we examined the biological mechanisms and therapeutic potential of targeting a critical platinum resistance gene, ATP7B, using both in vitro and in vivo models. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Expression of ATP7A and ATP7B was examined in ovarian cancer cell lines by real-time reverse transcription-PCR and Western blot analysis. ATP7A and ATP7B gene silencing was achieved with targeted small interfering RNA (siRNA) and its effects on cell viability and DNA adduct formation were examined. For in vivo therapy experiments, siRNA was incorporated into the neutral nanoliposome 1,2-dioleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphatidylcholine (DOPC). RESULTS: ATP7A and ATP7B genes were expressed at higher levels in platinum-resistant cells compared with sensitive cells; however, only differences in ATP7B reached statistical significance. ATP7A gene silencing had no significant effect on the sensitivity of resistant cells to cisplatin, but ATP7B silencing resulted in 2.5-fold reduction of cisplatin IC(50) levels and increased DNA adduct formation in cisplatin-resistant cells (A2780-CP20 and RMG2). Cisplatin was found to bind to the NH(2)-terminal copper-binding domain of ATP7B, which might be a contributing factor to cisplatin resistance. For in vivo therapy experiments, ATP7B siRNA was incorporated into DOPC and was highly effective in reducing tumor growth in combination with cisplatin (70-88% reduction in both models compared with controls). This reduction in tumor growth was accompanied by reduced proliferation, increased tumor cell apoptosis, and reduced angiogenesis. CONCLUSION: These data provide a new understanding of cisplatin resistance in cancer cells and may have implications for therapeutic reversal of drug resistance.

Hepatocellular carcinoma survival in uninsured and underinsured patients.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing. The purpose of this study is to establish baseline survival in a medically-underserved population and to evaluate the effect of HCV seropositivity on our patient population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We reviewed clinicopathologic parameters from a prospective tumor registry and medical records from the Harris County Hospital District (HCHD). Outcomes were compared using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank tests. RESULTS: A total of 298 HCC patients were identified. The median survival for the entire cohort was 3.4 mo. There was no difference in survival between the HCV seropositive and the HCV seronegative groups (3.6 mo versus 2.6 mo, P = 0.7). Patients with a survival <1 mo had a significant increase in>αfetoprotein (AFP), international normalized ratio (INR), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and total bilirubin and decrease in albumin compared with patients with a survival ≥ 1 mo. CONCLUSIONS: Survival for HCC patients in the HCHD is extremely poor compared with an anticipated median survival of 7 mo reported in other studies. HCV seropositive patients have no survival advantage over HCV seronegative patients. Poorer liver function at diagnosis appears to be related to shorter survival. Further analysis into variables contributing to decreased survival is needed.

The Role of Acidic Fibroblast Growth Factor and Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor 4 in High Grade Serous Carcinoma

Background: High grade serous carcinoma whether ovarian, tubal or primary peritoneal, continues to be the most lethal gynecologic malignancy in the USA. Although combination chemotherapy and aggressive surgical resection has improved survival in the past decade the majority of patients still succumb to chemo-resistant disease recurrence. It has recently been reported that amplification of 5q31-5q35.3 is associated with poor prognosis in patients with high grade serous ovarian carcinoma. Although the amplicon contains over 50 genes, it is notable for the presence of several members of the fibroblast growth factor signaling axis. In particular acidic fibroblast growth factor (FGF1) has been demonstrated to be one of the driving genes in mediating the observed prognostic effect of the amplicon in ovarian cancer patients. This study seeks to further validate the prognostic value of fibroblast growth receptor 4 (FGFR4), another candidate gene of the FGF/FGFR axis located in the same amplicon. The emphasis will be delineating the role the FGF1/FGFR4 signaling axis plays in high grade serous ovarian carcinoma; and test the feasibility of targeting the FGF1/FGFR4 axis therapeutically. Materials and Methods: Spearman and Pearson correlation studies on data generated from array CGH and transcriptome profiling analyses on 51 microdissected tumor samples were used to identify genes located on chromosome 5q31-35.3 that showed significant correlation between DNA and mRNA copy numbers. Significant correlation between FGF1 and FGFR4 DNA copy numbers was further validated by qPCR analysis on DNA isolated from 51 microdissected tumor samples. Immunolocalization and quantification of FGFR4 expression were performed on paraffin embedded tissue samples from 183 cases of high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma. The expression was then correlated with clinical data to assess impact on survival. The expression of FGF1 and FGFR4 in vitro was quantified by real-time PCR and western blotting in six high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma cell lines and compared to those in human ovarian surface epithelial cells to identify overexpression. The effect of FGF1 on these cell lines after serum starvation was quantified for in vitro cellular proliferation, migration/invasion, chemoresistance and survival utilizing a combination of commercially available colorimetric, fluorometric and electrical impedance assays. FGFR4 expression was then transiently silenced via siRNA transfection and the effects on response to FGF1, cellular proliferation, and migration were quantified. To identify relevant cellular pathways involved, responsive cell lines were transduced with different transcription response elements using the Cignal-Lenti reporter system and treated with FGF1 with and without transient FGFR4 knock down. This was followed by western blot confirmation for the relevant phosphoproteins. Anti-FGF1 antibodies and FGFR trap proteins were used to attempt inhibition of FGF mediated phenotypic changes and relevant signaling in vitro. Orthotopic intraperitoneal tumors were established in nude mice using serous cell lines that have been previously transfected with luciferase expressing constructs. The mice were then treated with FGFR trap protein. Tumor progression was then followed via bioluminescent imaging. The FGFR4 gene from 52 clinical samples was sequenced to screen for mutations. Results: FGFR4 DNA and mRNA copy numbers were significantly correlated and FGFR4 DNA copy number was significantly correlated with that of FGF1. Survival of patients with high FGFR4 expressing tumors was significantly shorter that those with low expression(median survival 28 vs 55 month p< 0.001) In a multivariate cox regression model FGFR expression significantly increased risk of death (HR 2.1, p<0.001). FGFR4 expression was significantly higher in all cell lines tested compared to HOSE, OVCA432 cell line in particular had very high expression suggesting amplification. FGF1 was also particularly overexpressed in OVCA432. FGF1 significantly increased cell survival after serum deprivation in all cell lines. Transient knock down of FGFR4 caused significant reduction in cell migration and proliferation in vitro and significantly decreased the proliferative effects of FGF1 in vitro. FGFR1, FGFR4 traps and anti-FGF1 antibodies did not show activity in vitro. OVCA432 transfected with the cignal lenti reporter system revealed significant activation of MAPK, NFkB and WNT pathways, western blotting confirmed the results. Reverse phase protein array (RPPA) analysis also showed activation of MAPK, AKT, WNT pathways and down regulation of E Cadherin. FGFR trap protein significantly reduced tumor growth in vivo in an orthotopic mouse model. Conclusions: Overexpression and amplification of several members of the FGF signaling axis present on the amplicon 5q31-35.3 is a negative prognostic indicator in high grade serous ovarian carcinoma and may drive poor survival associated with that amplicon. Activation of The FGF signaling pathway leads to downstream activation of MAPK, AKT, WNT and NFkB pathways leading to a more aggressive cancer phenotype with increased tumor growth, evasion of apoptosis and increased migration and invasion. Inhibition of FGF pathway in vivo via FGFR trap protein leads to significantly decreased tumor growth in an orthotopic mouse model.

Differential gene expression in multistep tumorigenesis using an {\it in vitro\/} human cell model

Using a human terato-carcinoma cell line, PA-1, the functional role of the oncogenes and tumor suppressor gene involved in the multistep process of carcinogenesis have been analyzed. The expression of AP-2 was strongly correlated with the susceptibility to ras transformation. The differential responsiveness to growth factors between stage 1 ras resistant cells and stage 2 ras susceptible cells was observed, indicating that the ability of stage 2 cells to respond to the mutated ras oncogenes in transformation correlated with the ability to be stimulated by certain growth factors. Using differential screening of cDNA libraries, a number of differentially expressed cDNA clones was isolated. One of those, clone 12, is overexpressed in ras transformed stage 3 cells. The amino acid sequence of clone 12 is almost identical to a mouse LLrep3 gene that was growth-regulated, and 78% similar to a yeast ribosomal protein S4. These results suggest that the S4 gene may be involved in regulation of growth. Clone 9 is expressed in stage 1 ras resistant cells (3.5-kb and 3.0-kb transcripts) but the expression of this clone in stage 2 ras susceptible cells and stage 3 ras-transformed cells is greatly diminished. The expression of this cDNA clone was increased to at least five fold in ras resistant cells and nontumorigenic hybrids treated with retinoic acid but not increased in retinoic acid treated ras susceptible cells, ras transformed cells and the tumorigenic segregants. Partial sequence of this clone showed no homology to the sequences in Genbank. These findings suggest that clone 9 could be a suppressor gene or the genes that are involved in the biochemical pathway of tumor suppression or neurogenic differentiation. The apparent pleiotropic effect of the loss of this suppressor gene function support Harris' proposal that tumor suppressor genes regulate differentiation. The tumor suppressor gene may act as negative regulator of tumor growth by controlling gene expression in differentiation. ^

Analysis of galectin expression and identification of endogenous ligands in a human colon carcinoma cell line

The 14.5 kDa (galectin-1) and 31 kDa (galectin-3) lectins are the most well characterized members of a family of vertebrate carbohydrate-binding proteins known as the galectins. Evidence has been obtained implicating these galectins in events as diverse as cell-cell and cell-extracellular matrix interactions, growth regulation, transformation, differentiation, and programmed cell death. In the present study, sodium butyrate was found to be a potent inducer of galectin-1 in the KM12 human colon carcinoma cell line. Prior to treatment with butyrate this cell line expresses only galectin-3. These cells were utilized as an in vitro model system to study galectin expression as well as that of their endogenous ligands. The initial phase of this project involved the examination of the induction of galectin-1 by butyrate at the protein level. These studies indicated that galectin-1 induction by butyrate was relatively rapid reaching nearly maximal levels after only 24 hours. Additionally, the induction was found to be reversible upon the removal of butyrate and to precede the increase in expression of the well characterized differentiation marker, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). The second phase of this project involved the characterization of potential glycoprotein ligands for galectin-1 and galectin-3. This work demonstrated that the polylactosaminoglycan-containing glycoproteins laminin, CEA, and the lysosome-associated glycoproteins-1 and -2 (LAMPs-1 and -2) are capable of serving as ligands for both galectin-1 and -3. The third phase of this project involved the analysis of the induction of the galectin-1 promoter by butyrate. Through the analysis of deletion constructs transiently transfected into KM12 cells, the region of the galectin-1 promoter mediating a high level of induction by butyrate was localized primarily within a proximal portion of the promoter containing a CCAAT element and an Sp1 binding site. The CCAAT-binding activity in the KM12 nuclear extracts was subsequently dentified as NF-Y by gel shift analysis. These studies suggest that: (1) the galectins may be involved in modulating adhesive interactions in human colon carcinoma cells through the binding of several polylactosaminoglycans shown to play a role in adhesion and (2) high level induction of the galectin-1 promoter by butyrate can proceed through a discreet, proximal element containing an NF-Y-binding CCAAT box and an Sp1 site. ^

Chemopreventive function of retinoid X receptors in human squamous cell carcinoma of the skin

Retinoid therapy has been successful for the treatment of skin squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). A suppression of the predominant retinoid X receptor expressed in skin, retinoid X receptor α (RXRα), has been reported in skin SCC. These observations have led to the hypothesis that retinoid receptor loss contributes to the tumorigenic phenotype of epithelial cancers. To test this hypothesis, the RXRα gene was mapped in order to generate a targeting construct. Additionally the transcriptional regulation of the human RXRα a gene in keratinocytes was characterized after identifying the transcription initiation sites, the promoter, and enhancer regions of this gene. The structure is highly conserved between human and mouse. A nontumorigenic human skin-derived cell line called near diploid immortalized keratinocytes (NIKS) has the advantage of growing as organotypic raft cultures, under physiological conditions closely resembling in-vivo squamous stratification. We have exploited the raft culture technique to develop an in-vitro model for skin SCC progression that includes the NIKS cells, HaCaT cells, a premalignant cell line, and SRB 12-p9 cells, a tumorigenic SCC skin cell line. The differentiation, proliferation and nuclear receptor ligand response characteristics of this system were studied and significant and novel results were obtained. RXRs are obligate heterodimerization partners with many of the nuclear hormone receptors, including retinoic acid receptors (RARs), vitamin D3 receptors (VDR), thyroid hormone receptors (T3 R) and peroxisome proliferator activate receptors (PPARs), which are all known to be active in skin. Treatment of the three cell lines in raft culture with the RXR specific ligand BMS649, BMS961 (RARγ-specific), vitamin D3 (VDR ligand), thryoid hormone (T3R ligand) and clofibrate (PPARa ligand), and the combination of BMS649 with each of the 4 receptor partner ligands, resulted in distinct effects on differentiation, proliferation and apoptosis. The effects of activation of RXRs in each of the four-receptor pathways; in the context of skin SCC progression, with an emphasis on the VDR/RXR pathway, are discussed. These studies will lead to a better understanding of RXRα action in human skin and will help determine its role in SCC tumorigenesis, as well as its potential as a target for the prevention, treatment, and control of skin cancer. ^

The biologic and signaling effects of Tiam1 overexpression in colorectal carcinoma

Cellular migration is essential to many normal cellular processes. In tumor cells, aberrant activation of the normal pathways regulating migration is one of the critical steps in the development of metastasis. Previously, I demonstrated for the first time that overexpression of Tiam1, a guanine nucleotide exchange factor (GNEF) for small G proteins in the Rho family, could alter migration in colorectal tumor cells. ^ This dissertation focuses on the roles of Tiam1 in promoting cell migration, survival, and metastasis of colorectal carcinoma cells, utilizing the model system I developed. To determine the in vivo phenotype of the migratory cell lines, athymic nude mice were injected with cells into the orthotopic site. Several of the mice injected with cells of increased migratory potential had metastases. Thus, the in vitro selection for increased migration resulted in increased metastatic potential in vivo, and therefore, the Tiam1-overexpressing cells provide a model to examine signal transduction pathways important to this process. ^ To examine effects of Tiam1 signaling on small G proteins critical to cellular functions associated with migration, I examined the activation status of the small G proteins Rac, Rho, and Cdc42. The cells of increased migratory potential have increased GTP-bound Rac and Rho, compared to control SW480 cells. Cells that overexpress Tiam1 are more migratory and are resistant to detachment-induced death, or anoikis. To determine which effects and phenotypes were Tiam1-specific, we utilized siRNA to downregulate Tiam1 expression. These results demonstrate that Tiam1 is sufficient but not required for the migration of colorectal carcinoma cells in our model system, and that the biologically selected cells have additional changes that promote migration besides the increase in Tiam1. I also show that Tiam1 protects colorectal carcinoma cells from detachment-induced death, but is not required for anoikis resistance in the biologically selected migratory cells. ^ In summary, my studies demonstrate a heretofore-unknown regulator of phenotypes critical to the development of colorectal carcinoma metastases, overexpression of Tiam1. Understanding the mechanism by which Tiam1 contributes to cellular migration and metastasis is crucial to developing desperately needed new therapies for colorectal carcinoma. ^

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a 2-stage community-based hepatocellular carcinoma screening program in Taiwan

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been ranked as the top cause of death due to neoplasm malignancy in Taiwan for years. The high incidence of HCC in Taiwan is primarily attributed to high prevalence of hepatitis viral infection. Screening the subjects with liver cirrhosis for HCC was widely recommended by many previous studies. The latest practice guideline for management of HCC released by the American Association for the Study of Liver Disease (AASLD) in 2005 recommended that the high risk groups, including cirrhotic patients, chronic HBV/HCV carriers, and subjects with family history of HCC and etc., should undergo surveillance.^ This study aims to investigate (1) whether the HCC screening program can prolong survival period of the high risk group, (2) what is the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the HCC screening program in Taiwan, as compared with a non-screening strategy from the payer perspective, (3) which high risk group has the lowest ICER for the HCC screening program from the insurer's perspective, in comparison with no screening strategy of each group, and (4) the estimated total cost of providing the HCC screening program to all high risk groups.^ The high risk subjects in the study were identified from the communities with high prevalence of hepatitis viral infection and classified into three groups (cirrhosis group, early cirrhosis group, and no cirrhosis group) at different levels of risk to HCC by status of liver disease at the time of enrollment. The repeated ultrasound screenings at an interval of 3, 6, and 12 months were applied to cirrhosis group, early cirrhosis group, and no cirrhosis group, respectively. The Markov-based decision model was constructed to simulate progression of HCC and to estimate the ICER for each group of subjects.^ The screening group had longer survival in the statistical results and the model outcomes. Owing to the low HCC incidence rate in the community-based screening program, screening services only have limited effect on survival of the screening group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the HCC screening program was $3834 per year of life saved, in comparison with the non-screening strategy. The estimated total cost of each group from the screening model over 13.5 years approximately consumes 0.13%, 1.06%, and 0.71% of total amount of adjusted National Health Expenditure from Jan 1992 to Jun 2005. ^ The subjects at high risk of developing HCC to undergo repeated ultrasound screenings had longer survival than those without screening, but screening was not the only factor to cause longer survival in the screening group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the 2-stage community-based HCC screening program in Taiwan was small. The HCC screening program was worthy of investment in Taiwan. In comparison with early cirrhosis group and no cirrhosis group, cirrhosis group has the lowest ICER when the screening period is less than 19 years. The estimated total cost of providing the HCC screening program to all high risk groups consumes approximately 1.90% of total amount of adjusted 13.5-year NHE in Taiwan.^

Estrogen-induced gene expression and patient survival in high-grade serous carcinoma of the ovary

Background. Assessment of estrogen receptor (ER) expression has inconsistent utility as a prognostic marker in epithelial ovarian carcinoma. In breast and endometrial cancers, the use of estrogen-induced gene panels, rather than ER expression alone, has shown improved prognostic capability. Specifically, over-expression of estrogen-induced genes in these tumors is associated with a better prognosis and signifies estrogen sensitivity that can be exploited with hormone antagonizing agents. It was therefore hypothesized that estrogen-induced gene expression in ovarian carcinoma would successfully predict outcomes and differentiate between tumors of varying estrogen sensitivities. Methods. Two hundred nineteen (219) patients with ovarian cancer who underwent surgery at M. D. Anderson between 2004 and 2007 were identified. Of these, eighty-three (83) patients were selected for inclusion because they had advanced stage, high-grade serous carcinoma of the ovary or peritoneum, had not received neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and had readily available frozen tissue for study. All patients had also received adjuvant treatment with platinum and taxane agents. The expression of seven genes known to be induced by estrogen in the female reproductive tract (EIG121, sFRP1, sFRP4, RALDH2, PR, IGF-1, and ER) was measured using qRT-PCR. Unsupervised cluster analyses of multiple gene permutations were used to categorize patients as high or low estrogen-induced gene expressors. QPCR gene expression results were then compared to ER and PR immunohistochemical (IHC) expression. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the effects of both individual genes and selected gene clusters on patient survival. Results. Median follow-up time was 38.7 months (range 1-68 months). In a multivariate model, overall survival was predicted by sFRP1 expression (HR 1.10 [1.02-1.19], p=0.01) and EIG121 expression (HR 1.28 [1.10-1.49], p<0.01). A cluster defined by EIG121 and ER was further examined because that combination appeared to reasonably segregate tumors into distinct groups of high and low estrogen-induced gene expressors. Shorter overall survival was associated with high estrogen-induced gene expressors (HR 2.84 [1.11-7.30], p=0.03), even after adjustment for race, age, body mass index, and residual disease at debulking. No difference in IHC ER or PR expression was noted between gene clusters. Conclusion. In sharp contrast to breast and endometrial cancers, high estrogen-induced gene expression predicts shorter overall survival in patients with high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma. An estrogen-induced gene biomarker panel may have utility as prognostic indicator and may be useful to guide management with estrogen antagonists in this population.^

Regulation of squamous cell differentiation in human head and neck carcinoma cells by retinoids

Retinoids have been found to be effective in the prevention of premalignant lesions and second primary cancers in the upper aerodigestive tract. Further development of retinoids for prevention and therapy of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) requires a better understanding of their mechanism of action on the growth and differentiation of such cells. I have chosen to employ cultured HNSCC cell lines as a model system for investigating the mechanism underlying the effects of retinoids. These cells are useful because all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) inhibits their proliferation. Furthermore, two HNSCC cell lines were found to express three squamous differentiation (SqD) markers characteristic of normal keratinocytes and ATRA suppressed the expression of these markers as reported for normal keratinocytes. It is thought that nuclear retinoic acid receptors (RARs and RXRs), which act as DNA-binding transcription modulating factors, mediate the effects of retinoids on the growth and differentiation of normal and tumor cells. I found that all four cell lines examined expressed RAR-$\alpha ,$ RAR-$\tau ,$ and RXR-$\alpha$ and three of four expressed RAR-$\beta .$ ATRA treatment increased the level of RAR-$\alpha ,$ -$\beta ,$ and -$\tau$ in four cell lines. Two HNSCC cell lines that exhibited a progressive increase in the expression of SqD markers during growth in culture also showed a concurrent decrease in RAR-$\beta$ level. Moreover, increasing concentrations of RA suppressed the SqD marker while inducing RAR-$\beta$ mRNA. Several synthetic retinoids which exhibit a preference for binding to specific nuclear RARs showed a differential ability to inhibit cell proliferation, transactivate transcription of the reporter genes (CAT and luciferase) from the RA response element (RARE) of the RAR-$\beta$ gene, and induce RAR-$\beta$ expression. Those retinoids that were effective inducers of RAR-$\beta$ also suppressed SqD effectively, indicating an inverse relationship exists between the expression of RAR-$\beta$ and SqD. This inverse relationship suggests a role for RAR-$\beta$ in the suppression of SqD. ^

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

The risk prediction for SPM and its impact on the survival in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) is the sixth common malignancy in the world, with high rates of developing second primary malignancy (SPM) and moderately low survival rates. This disease has become an enormous challenge in the cancer research and treatments. For HNSCC patients, a highly significant cause of post-treatment mortality and morbidity is the development of SPM. Hence, assessment of predicting the risk for the development of SPM would be very helpful for patients, clinicians and policy makers to estimate the survival of patients with HNSCC. In this study, we built a prognostic model to predict the risk of developing SPM in patients with newly diagnosed HNSCC. The dataset used in this research was obtained from The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center. For the first aim, we used stepwise logistic regression to identify the prognostic factors for the development of SPM. Our final model contained cancer site and overall cancer stage as our risk factors for SPM. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p-value= 0.15>0.05) showed the final prognostic model fit the data well. The area under the ROC curve was 0.72 that suggested the discrimination ability of our model was acceptable. The internal validation confirmed the prognostic model was a good fit and the final prognostic model would not over optimistically predict the risk of SPM. This model needs external validation by using large data sample size before it can be generalized to predict SPM risk for other HNSCC patients. For the second aim, we utilized a multistate survival analysis approach to estimate the probability of death for HNSCC patients taking into consideration of the possibility of SPM. Patients without SPM were associated with longer survival. These findings suggest that the development of SPM could be a predictor of survival rates among the patients with HNSCC.^