SURVIVAL PREDICTION FOR BRAIN TUMOR PATIENTS USING GENE EXPRESSION DATA

Brain tumor is one of the most aggressive types of cancer in humans, with an estimated median survival time of 12 months and only 4% of the patients surviving more than 5 years after disease diagnosis. Until recently, brain tumor prognosis has been based only on clinical information such as tumor grade and patient age, but there are reports indicating that molecular profiling of gliomas can reveal subgroups of patients with distinct survival rates. We hypothesize that coupling molecular profiling of brain tumors with clinical information might improve predictions of patient survival time and, consequently, better guide future treatment decisions. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, the general goal of this research is to build models for survival prediction of glioma patients using DNA molecular profiles (U133 Affymetrix gene expression microarrays) along with clinical information. First, a predictive Random Forest model is built for binary outcomes (i.e. short vs. long-term survival) and a small subset of genes whose expression values can be used to predict survival time is selected. Following, a new statistical methodology is developed for predicting time-to-death outcomes using Bayesian ensemble trees. Due to a large heterogeneity observed within prognostic classes obtained by the Random Forest model, prediction can be improved by relating time-to-death with gene expression profile directly. We propose a Bayesian ensemble model for survival prediction which is appropriate for high-dimensional data such as gene expression data. Our approach is based on the ensemble "sum-of-trees" model which is flexible to incorporate additive and interaction effects between genes. We specify a fully Bayesian hierarchical approach and illustrate our methodology for the CPH, Weibull, and AFT survival models. We overcome the lack of conjugacy using a latent variable formulation to model the covariate effects which decreases computation time for model fitting. Also, our proposed models provides a model-free way to select important predictive prognostic markers based on controlling false discovery rates. We compare the performance of our methods with baseline reference survival methods and apply our methodology to an unpublished data set of brain tumor survival times and gene expression data, selecting genes potentially related to the development of the disease under study. A closing discussion compares results obtained by Random Forest and Bayesian ensemble methods under the biological/clinical perspectives and highlights the statistical advantages and disadvantages of the new methodology in the context of DNA microarray data analysis.

Excess stroke in Mexican Americans compared with non-Hispanic Whites: the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi Project.

Mexican Americans are the largest subgroup of Hispanics, the largest minority population in the United States. Stroke is the leading cause of disability and third leading cause of death. The authors compared stroke incidence among Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic Whites in a population-based study. Stroke cases were ascertained in Nueces County, Texas, utilizing concomitant active and passive surveillance. Cases were validated on the basis of source documentation by board-certified neurologists masked to subjects' ethnicity. From January 2000 to December 2002, 2,350 cerebrovascular events occurred. Of the completed strokes, 53% were in Mexican Americans. The crude cumulative incidence was 168/10,000 in Mexican Americans and 136/10,000 in non-Hispanic Whites. Mexican Americans had a higher cumulative incidence for ischemic stroke (ages 45-59 years: risk ratio = 2.04, 95% confidence interval: 1.55, 2.69; ages 60-74 years: risk ratio = 1.58, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 1.91; ages >or=75 years: risk ratio = 1.12, 95% confidence interval: 0.94, 1.32). Intracerebral hemorrhage was more common in Mexican Americans (age-adjusted risk ratio = 1.63, 95% confidence interval: 1.24, 2.16). The subarachnoid hemorrhage age-adjusted risk ratio was 1.57 (95% confidence interval: 0.86, 2.89). Mexican Americans experience a substantially greater ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage incidence compared with non-Hispanic Whites. As the Mexican-American population grows and ages, measures to target this population for stroke prevention are critical.

THE EXPRESSION PROFILE OF A GWAS DETECTED GENE (NINJ2) IN THE BRAIN OF A MOUSE MODEL OF ISCHEMIC STROKE

Stroke is the third leading cause of death and a major debilitating disease in the United States. Multiple factors, including genetic factors, contribute to the development of the disease. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have contributed to the identification of genetic loci influencing risk for complex diseases, such as stroke. In 2010, a GWAS of incident stroke was performed in four large prospective cohorts from the USA and Europe and identified an association of two Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome 12p13 with a greater risk of ischemic stroke in individuals of European and African-American ancestry. These SNPs are located 11 Kb upstream of the nerve injury-induced gene 2, Ninjurin2 (NINJ2), suggesting that this gene may be involved in stroke pathogenesis. NINJ2 is a cell adhesion molecule induced in the distal glial cells from a sciatic-nerve injury at 7-days after injury. In an effort to ascribe a possible role of NINJ2 in stroke, we have assessed changes in the level of gene and protein expression of NINJ2 following a time-course from a transiently induced middle cerebral artery ischemic stroke in mice brains. We report an increase in the gene expression of NINJ2 in the ischemic and peri-infarct (ipsilateral) cortical tissues at 7 and 14-days after stroke. We also report an increase in the protein expression of NINJ2 in the cortex of both the ipsilateral and contralateral cortical tissues at the same time-points. We conclude that the expression of NINJ2 is regulated by an ischemic stroke in the cortex and is consistent with NINJ2 being involved in the recovery time-points of stroke.

AN EPIDEMIOLOGIC CASE-CONTROL ANALYSIS OF CHILDHOOD INTRACRANIAL AND SPINAL CORD TUMORS IN RELATION TO PATERNAL OCCUPATION AT BIRTH (BRAIN, CANCER)

Epidemiologic case-control studies of small groups of childhood nervous system tumor patients have suggested that parental employment in occupations with exposure to hydrocarbons is a risk factor for disease. The main focus of this case-control study was to assess the paternal occupation at the time of birth of offspring who later developed childhood intracranial and spinal tumors. All children under 15 years of age dying of such tumors in Texas, during the period 1964-1980, were selected as cases. Disease and demographic data were abstracted from death certificates. The birth certificate for each child of the final group of 499 cases was located and parental occupation information, as well as demographic and obstetric data, were collected. The comparison group consisted of a random sample from all Texas live births with the same birth year, race and sex distribution as the cases.^ The paternal occupations were categorized into broad classifications of those involving hydrocarbon exposure versus those that did not, based on the occupation criteria used in the previous studies. Odds ratios did not indicate any increased risk associated with general paternal hydrocarbon exposure in the workplace. In prior studies, increased risk estimates were detected with narrower groups of occupations involving exposure to hydrocarbon materials. The data from this study were classified according to these groups, and again, no increased risks were indicated except for a statistically insignificant but elevated odds ratio for fathers who were paper and pulp mill workers.^ Odds ratios were calculated for specific occupations and industries previously implicated as risk factors. Significantly associated odds ratios (OR) were detected for electricians (OR = 3.5), especially those working for construction companies (OR = 10.0), for employment in the printing occupations (OR = 4.5), particularly graphic arts workers (OR = 21.9), and in the electronics and electronic machinery industries (OR = 3.5). Analysis of the petroleum refining and chemical industries, which were not found in previous study populations, revealed significantly elevated odds ratios of 3.0 for occupations with probable heavy exposure to chemicals and petroleum compounds and 10.0 for salesmen of chemical products. ^

The role and mechanism of supressor of cytokine signaling 1 in brain metastasis

Brain metastasis, which occurs in 40%-60% of patients with advanced melanoma, has led directly to death in the majority of cases. Unfortunately, little is known about the biological and molecular basis of melanoma brain metastases. In our previous study, we developed a model to study human melanoma brain metastasis and found that Stat3 activity was increased in human brain metastatic melanoma cells when compared with that in cutaneous melanoma cells. The increased activation of Stat3 is also responsible for affecting melanoma angiogenesis in vivo and melanoma cell invasion in vitro and significantly affecting the expression of bFGF, VEGF, and MMP-2 in vivo and in vitro. Interestingly, a member of a new family of cytokine-inducible inhibitors of signal transduction, termed suppressors of cytokine signaling 1 (SOCS1) was found to negatively regulate the Janus kinase signal transducer and activator of transcription (Jak/STAT) signaling cascade. Here we report that restoration of SOCS1 expression by transfecting of SOCS1-expressing vector effectively inhibited melanoma brain metastasis through inhibiting Stat3 activation and further affecting melanoma angiogenesis and melanoma cell invasion in vitro, and significantly affected the expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and matrix metalloproteinase-2 (MMP-2) in vitro and in vivo. In addition, we used cDNA array to compare mRNA expression in the SOCS1-transfected and vector-transfected cell lines and found some genes are tightly correlated to the restoration of SOCS1. One of them is Caveolin-1 (Cav-1). Cav-1 was reported to function as a tumor suppressor gene by several groups. Finally, the Cav-1 expression is up-regulated in SOCS1-overexpressing cell line. Further study found the regulation of Cav-1 by SOCS1 occurs through inhibiting Stat3 activation. Activated Stat3 binds directly to Cav-1 promoter and the Cav-1 promoter within -575bp is essential for active Stat3 binding. My studies reveal that Stat3 activation and SOCS1 expression play important roles in melanoma metastases. Moreover, the expression between SOCS1, Stat3 and Cav-1 forms a feedback regulation loop. ^