The effects of population density on the spread of disease

The objective of this study is to identify the relationship between population density and the initial stages of the spread of disease in a local population. This study proposes to concentrate on the question of how population density affects the distribution of the susceptible individuals in a local population and thus affects the spread of the disease, measles. Population density is measured by the average of the number of contacts with susceptible individuals by each individual in the population during a fixed-length time period. The term “contact with susceptible individuals” means sufficient contact between two people for the disease to pass from an infectious person to a susceptible person. The fixed-length time period is taken to be the average length of time an infected person is infectious without symptoms of the disease. For this study of measles, the time period will be seven days. ^ While much attention has been given to modeling the entire epidemic process of measles, attempts have not been made to study the characteristics of contact rates required to initiate an epidemic. This study explores the relationship between population density, given a specific herd immunity rate in the population, and initial rate of the spread of the disease by considering the underlying distribution of contacts with susceptibles by the individuals in the population. ^ This study does not seek to model an entire measles epidemic, but to model the above stated relationship for the local population within which the first infective person is introduced. This study describes the mathematical relationship between population density parameters and contact distribution parameters. ^ The results are displayed in graphs that show the effects of different population densities on the spread of disease. The results support the idea that the number of new infectives is strongly related to the distribution of susceptible contacts. The results also show large differences in the epidemic measures between populations with densities equal to four versus three. ^

Factors governing late-recurrence of disease in a cohort of early-stage breast cancer survivors

Purpose. To determine the risk of late breast cancer recurrence (5 years after treatment) in a population of women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer at The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) between 1985-2000 and to examine the effect of this population’s BMI, smoking history, reproductive history, hormone use, and alcohol intake at the time of diagnosis on risk of late recurrence.^ Methods. Patients included 1,913 members of the Early Stage Breast Cancer Repository recruited at MDACC who had survived without a recurrence for at least five years after their initial diagnosis of early stage breast cancer. Clinical and epidemiological information was ascertained twice on participants during the study—first by medical record abstraction then by patient interview at least five years after receipt of adjuvant treatment. A total of 223 late breast cancer recurrences were captured, with an average follow-up of 10.6 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). ^

Genetics and epidemiology of gallbladder disease in New World native peoples.

Native peoples of the New World, including Amerindians and admixed Latin Americans such as Mexican-Americans, are highly susceptible to diseases of the gallbladder. These include cholesterol cholelithiasis (gallstones) and its complications, as well as cancer of the gallbladder. Although there is clearly some necessary dietary or other environmental risk factor involved, the pattern of disease prevalence is geographically associated with the distribution of genes of aboriginal Amerindian origin, and levels of risk generally correspond to the degree of Amerindian admixture. This pattern differs from that generally associated with Westernization, which suggests a gene-environment interaction, and that within an admixed population there is a subset whose risk is underestimated when admixture is ignored. The risk that an individual of a susceptible New World genotype will undergo a cholecystectomy by age 85 can approach 40% in Mexican-American females, and their risk of gallbladder cancer can reach several percent. These are heretofore unrecognized levels of risk, especially of the latter, because previous studies have not accounted for admixture or for the loss of at-risk individuals due to cholecystectomy. A genetic susceptibility may, thus, be as "carcinogenic" in New World peoples as any known major environmental exposure; yet, while the risk has a genetic basis, its expression as gallbladder cancer is so delayed as to lead only very rarely to multiply-affected families. Estimates in this paper are derived in part from two studies of Mexican-Americans in Starr County and Laredo, Texas.

Measuring health state preferences for hemophilia: Development of a disease-specific utility instrument

Research has shown that disease-specific health related quality of life (HRQoL) instruments are more responsive than generic instruments to particular disease conditions. However, only a few studies have used disease-specific instruments to measure HRQoL in hemophilia. The goal of this project was to develop a disease-specific utility instrument that measures patient preferences for various hemophilia health states. The visual analog scale (VAS), a ranking method, and the standard gamble (SG), a choice-based method incorporating risk, were used to measure patient preferences. Study participants (n = 128) were recruited from the UT/Gulf States Hemophilia and Thrombophilia Center and stratified by age: 0–18 years and 19+. ^ Test retest reliability was demonstrated for both VAS and SG instruments: overall within-subject correlation coefficients were 0.91 and 0.79, respectively. Results showed statistically significant differences in responses between pediatric and adult participants when using the SG (p = .045). However, no significant differences were shown between these groups when using the VAS (p = .636). When responses to VAS and SG instruments were compared, statistically significant differences in both pediatric (p < .0001) and adult (p < .0001) groups were observed. Data from this study also demonstrated that persons with hemophilia with varying severity of disease, as well as those who were HIV infected, were able to evaluate a range of health states for hemophilia. This has important implications for the study of quality of life in hemophilia and the development of disease-specific HRQoL instruments. ^ The utility measures obtained from this study can be applied in economic evaluations that analyze the cost/utility of alternative hemophilia treatments. Results derived from the SG indicate that age can influence patients' preferences regarding their state of health. This may have implications for considering treatment options based on the mean age of the population under consideration. Although both instruments independently demonstrated reliability and validity, results indicate that the two measures may not be interchangeable. ^

Predictors of survival in Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is associated with greater mortality and reduced survival among individuals with Alzheimer's disease as compared to those without dementia. It is uncertain how these survival estimates change when the clinical signs and/or symptoms of comorbid conditions are present in individuals' with Alzheimer's disease. Cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension, hyperlipidemia, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, and diabetes mellitus are common conditions in the aged population. Independently, these factors influence mortality and may have an additive effect on reduced survival in an individual with concomitant Alzheimer's disease. The bulk of the evidence from previous research efforts suggests an association between vascular co-morbidities and Alzheimer's disease incidence, but their role in survival remains to be elucidated. The objective of this proposed study was to examine the effects of cardiovascular comorbidities on the survival experience of individuals with probable Alzheimer's disease in order to identify prognostic factors for life expectancy following onset of disease. This study utilized data from the Baylor College of Medicine Alzheimer's Disease Center (ADC) longitudinal study of Alzheimer's disease and other memory disorders. Individuals between the ages of 55-69, 70-79, and ≥80 had a median survival from date of onset of 9.2 years, 8.0 years, and 7.2 years, respectively (p<0.001) and 5.5 years, 4.3 years, and 3.4 years from diagnosis. Sex was the strongest predictor of death from onset of AD, with females having a 30 percent lower risk compared to males. These findings further support the notion that age (both from onset and from diagnosis) and sex are the strongest predictors of survival among those with AD. ^

A systematic review and meta-analysis of diabetes disease management programs

Context. Despite the rapid growth of disease management programs, there are still questions about their efficacy and effectiveness for improving patient outcomes and their ability to reduce costs associated with chronic disease. ^ Objective. To determine the effectiveness of disease management programs on improving the results of HbA1c tests, lipid profiles and systolic blood pressure (SBP) readings among diabetics. These three quantitative measures are widely accepted methods of determining the quality of a patient's diabetes management and the potential for future complications. ^ Data Sources. MEDLINE and CINAHL were searched from 1950 to June 2008 using MeSH terms designed to capture all relevant studies. Scopus pearling and hand searching were also done. Only English language articles were selected. ^ Study Selection. Titles and abstracts for the 2347 articles were screened against predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria, yielding 217 articles for full screening. After full article screening, 29 studies were selected for inclusion in the review. ^ Data Extraction. From the selected studies, data extraction included sample size, mean change over baseline, and standard deviation for each control and experimental arm. ^ Results. The pooled results show a mean HbA1c reduction of 0.64%, 95% CI (-0.83 to -0.44), mean SBP reduction of 7.39 mmHg (95% CI to -11.58 to -3.2), mean total cholesterol reduction of 5.74 mg/dL (95% CI, -10.01 to -1.43), and mean LDL cholesterol reduction of 3.74 mg/dL (95% CI, -8.34 to 0.87). Results for HbA1c, SBP and total cholesterol were statistically significant, while the results for LDL cholesterol were not. ^ Conclusions. The findings suggest that disease management programs utilizing five hallmarks of care can be effective at improving intermediate outcomes among diabetics. However, given the significant heterogeneity present, there may be fundamental differences with respect to study-specific interventions and populations that render them inappropriate for meta-analysis. ^

Cross-culture perspectives on fear of HIV disease and AIDS in health care workers

Health care workers have been known to carry into the workplace a variety of judgmental and negative attitudes towards their patients. In no other area of patient care has this issue been more pronounced as in the management of patients with AIDS. Health care workers have refused to treat or manage patients with AIDS and have often treated them more harshly than identically described leukemia patients. Some health care institutions have simply refused to admit patients with AIDS and even recent applicants to medical colleges and schools of nursing have indicated a preference for schools in areas with low prevalence of HIV disease. Since the attitudes of health care workers do have significant consequences on patient management, this study was carried out to determine the differences in clinical practice in Nigeria and the United States of America as it relates to knowledge of a patient's HIV status, determine HIV prevalence and culture in each of the study sites and how they impact on infection control practices, determine the relationship between infection control practices and fear of AIDS, and also determine the predictors of safe infection control practices in each of the study sites.^ The study utilized the 38-item fear of AIDS scale and the measure of infection control questionnaire for its data. Questionnaires were administered to health care workers at the university teaching hospital sites of Houston, Texas and Calabar in Nigeria. Data was analyzed using a chi-square test, and where appropriate, a student t-tests to establish the demographic variables for each country. Factor analysis was done using principal components analysis followed by varimax rotation to simple structure. The subscale scores for each study site were compared using t-tests (separate variance estimates) and utilizing Bonferroni adjustments for number of tests. Finally, correlations were carried out between infection control procedures and fear of AIDS in each study site using Pearson-product moment correlation coefficients.^ The study revealed that there were five dimensions of the fear of AIDS in health care workers, namely fear of loss of control, fear of sex, fear of HIV infection through blood and illness, fear of death and medical interventions and fear of contact with out-groups. Fear of loss of control was the primary area of concern in the Nigerian health care workers whereas fear of HIV infection through blood and illness was the most important area of AIDS related feats in United States health care workers. The study also revealed that infection control precautions and practices in Nigeria were based more on normative and social pressures whereas it was based on knowledge of disease transmission, supervision and employee discipline in the United States, and thus stresses the need for focused educational programs in health care settings that emphasize universal precautions at all times and that are sensitive to the cultural nuances of that particular environment. ^

A comparison of adherence with minocycline treatment in Parkinson's disease and rheumatoid arthritis clinical trials

Background: Little is known about the effects on patient adherence when the same study drug is administered in the same dose in two populations with two different diseases in two different clinical trials. The Minocycline in Rheumatoid Arthritis (MIRA) trial and the NIH Exploratory Trials in Parkinson's disease (NET-PD) Futility Study I provide a unique opportunity to do the above and to compare methods measuring adherence. This study may increase understanding of the influence of disease and adverse events on patient adherence and will provide insights to investigators selecting adherence assessment methods in clinical trials of minocycline and other drugs in future.^ Methods: Minocycline adherence by pill count and the effect of adverse events was compared in the MIRA and NET-PD FS1 trials using multivariable linear regression. Within the MIRA trial, agreement between assay and pill count was compared. The association of adverse events with assay adherence was examined using multivariable logistic regression.^ Results: Adherence derived from pill count in the MIRA and NET-PD FS1 trials did not differ significantly. Adverse events potentially related to minocycline did not appear useful to predict minocycline adherence. In the MIRA trial, adherence measured by pill count appears higher than adherence measured by assay. Agreement between pill count and assay was poor (kappa statistic = 0.25).^ Limitations: Trial and disease are completely confounded and hence the independent effect of disease on adherence to minocycline treatment cannot be studied.^ Conclusion: Simple pill count may be preferred over assay in the minocycline clinical trials to measure adherence. Assays may be less sensitive in a clinical setting where appointments are not scheduled in relation to medication administration time, given assays depend on many pharmacokinetic and instrument-related factors. However, pill count can be manipulated by the patient. Another study suggested that self-report method is more sensitive than pill count method in differentiating adherence from non-adherence. An effect of medication-related adverse events on adherence could not be detected.^

Population-based cross -sectional survey on intestinal helminth infections with a focus on taeniasis among residents of El Paso, Texas and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico

Few studies have been conducted on the epidemiology of enteric infectious diseases of public health importance in communities along the United States-Mexico border, and these studies typically focus on bacterial and viral diseases. The epidemiology of intestinal helminth infections along the border has not recently been explored, and there are no published reports for El Paso and Ciudad Juarez, both of which are high traffic urban areas along the Texas-Mexico border. The purpose of this research project was to conduct a cross-sectional epidemiologic survey for enteric helminths of medical importance along the Texas-Mexico border region of El Paso and Ciudad Juarez and to evaluate risk factors for exposure to these parasites. In addition, an emphasis was placed on the zoonotic tapeworm, Taenia solium. This tapeworm is especially important in this region because of the increasing incidence of neurocysticercosis, a severe disease spread by carriers of intestinal T. solium. Fecal samples were collected from individuals of all ages in a population-based cross-sectional household survey and evaluated for the presence of helminth parasites using fecal flotations. In addition, a Taenia coproantigen enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was performed on each stool sample to identify tapeworm carriers. A standardized questionnaire was administered to identify risk factors and routes of exposure for enteric helminth infections with additional questions to assess risk factors specific for taeniasis. The actual prevalence of taeniasis along the Texas-Mexico border was unknown, and this is the first population-based study performed in this region. Flotations were performed on 395 samples and four (1%) were positive for helminths including Ascaris, hookworms and Taenia species. Immunodiagnostic testing demonstrated a prevalence of 2.9% (11/378) for taeniasis. Based on the case definition, a 3% (12/395) prevalence of taeniasis was detected in this area. In addition, statistical analyses indicate that residents of El Paso are 8.5 times more likely to be a tapeworm carrier compared to residents of Juarez (PR=8.5, 95% CI=2.35, 30.81). This finding has important implications in terms of planning effective health education campaigns to decrease the prevalence of enteric helminths in populations along the Texas-Mexico border. ^