Bayesian inference and its application to meta-analysis of epidemiologic data

In Part One, the foundations of Bayesian inference are reviewed, and the technicalities of the Bayesian method are illustrated. Part Two applies the Bayesian meta-analysis program, the Confidence Profile Method (CPM), to clinical trial data and evaluates the merits of using Bayesian meta-analysis for overviews of clinical trials.^ The Bayesian method of meta-analysis produced similar results to the classical results because of the large sample size, along with the input of a non-preferential prior probability distribution. These results were anticipated through explanations in Part One of the mechanics of the Bayesian approach. ^

Molecular evolution of primate immunodeficiency viruses and hepatitis delta virus

Primate immunodeficiency viruses, or lentiviruses (HIV-1, HIV-2, and SIV), and hepatitis delta virus (HDV) are RNA viruses characterized by rapid evolution. Infection by primate immunodeficiency viruses usually results in the development of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in humans and AIDS-like illnesses in Asian macaques. Similarly, hepatitis delta virus infection causes hepatitis and liver cancer in humans. These viruses are heterogeneous within an infected patient and among individuals. Substitution rates in the virus genomes are high and vary in different lineages and among sites. Methods of phylogenetic analysis were applied to study the evolution of primate lentiviruses and the hepatitis delta virus. The following results have been obtained: (1) The substitution rate varies among sites of primate lentivirus genes according to the two parameter gamma distribution, with the shape parameter $\alpha$ being close to 1. (2) Primate immunodeficiency viruses fall into species-specific lineages. Therefore, viral transmissions across primate species are not as frequent as suggested by previous authors. (3) Primate lentiviruses have acquired or lost their pathogenicity several times in the course of evolution. (4) Evidence was provided for multiple infections of a North American patient by distinct HIV-1 strains of the B subtype. (5) Computer simulations indicate that the probability of committing an error in testing HIV transmission depends on the number of virus sequences and their length, the divergence times among sequences, and the model of nucleotide substitution. (6) For future investigations of HIV-1 transmissions, using longer virus sequences and avoiding the use of distant outgroups is recommended. (7) Hepatitis delta virus strains are usually related according to the geographic region of isolation. (8) Evolution of HDV is characterized by the rate of synonymous substitution being lower than the nonsynonymous substitution rate and the rate of evolution of the noncoding region. (9) There is a strong preference for G and C nucleotides at the third codon positions of the HDV coding region. ^

Comparison of machine learning approaches and statistical methods for estimation of airborne chemical exposures

Accurate quantitative estimation of exposure using retrospective data has been one of the most challenging tasks in the exposure assessment field. To improve these estimates, some models have been developed using published exposure databases with their corresponding exposure determinants. These models are designed to be applied to reported exposure determinants obtained from study subjects or exposure levels assigned by an industrial hygienist, so quantitative exposure estimates can be obtained. ^ In an effort to improve the prediction accuracy and generalizability of these models, and taking into account that the limitations encountered in previous studies might be due to limitations in the applicability of traditional statistical methods and concepts, the use of computer science- derived data analysis methods, predominantly machine learning approaches, were proposed and explored in this study. ^ The goal of this study was to develop a set of models using decision trees/ensemble and neural networks methods to predict occupational outcomes based on literature-derived databases, and compare, using cross-validation and data splitting techniques, the resulting prediction capacity to that of traditional regression models. Two cases were addressed: the categorical case, where the exposure level was measured as an exposure rating following the American Industrial Hygiene Association guidelines and the continuous case, where the result of the exposure is expressed as a concentration value. Previously developed literature-based exposure databases for 1,1,1 trichloroethane, methylene dichloride and, trichloroethylene were used. ^ When compared to regression estimations, results showed better accuracy of decision trees/ensemble techniques for the categorical case while neural networks were better for estimation of continuous exposure values. Overrepresentation of classes and overfitting were the main causes for poor neural network performance and accuracy. Estimations based on literature-based databases using machine learning techniques might provide an advantage when they are applied to other methodologies that combine `expert inputs' with current exposure measurements, like the Bayesian Decision Analysis tool. The use of machine learning techniques to more accurately estimate exposures from literature-based exposure databases might represent the starting point for the independence from the expert judgment.^

Molecular and evolutionary genetics of the X -linked visual pigment genes in humans and New World monkeys

Normal humans have one red and at least one green visual pigment genes. These genes are tightly linked as tandem repeats on the X chromosome and each of them has six exons. There is only one X-linked visual pigment gene in New World monkeys (NWMs) but the locus has three polymorphic alleles encoding red, yellow and green visual pigments, respectively. The spectral properties of the squirrel monkey and the marmoset (both NWMs) have been studied and partial sequences of the three alleles are available. To study the evolutionary history of these X-linked opsin genes in humans and NWMs, coding and intron sequences of the three squirrel monkey alleles and the three marmoset alleles were amplified by PCR followed by subcloning and sequencing. Introns 2 and 4 of the human red and green pigment genes were also sequenced. The results obtained are as follows: (1) The sequences of introns 2 and 4 of the human red and green opsin genes are significantly more similar between the two genes than are coding sequences, contrary to the usual situation where coding regions are better conserved in evolution than are introns. The high similarities in the two introns are probably due to recent gene conversion events during evolution of the human lineage. (2) Phylogenetic analysis of both intron and exon sequences indicates that the phylogenetic tree of the available primate opsin genes is the same as the species tree. The two human genes were derived from a gene duplication event after the divergence of the human and NWM lineages. The three alleles in each of the two NWM species diverged after the split of the two NWMs but have persisted in the population for at least 5 million years. (3) Allelic gene conversion might have occurred between the three squirrel monkey alleles. (4) A model of additive effect of hydroxyl-bearing amino acids on spectral tuning is proposed by treating some unknown variables as groups. Under the assumption that some residues have no effect, it is found that at least five amino acid residues, at positions 178 (3 nm), 180 (5 nm), 230 ($-$4 nm), 277 (9 nm) and 285 (13 nm), have linear spectral tuning effects. (5) Adaptive evolution of the opsin genes to different spectral peaks was observed at four residues that are important for spectral tuning. ^