On Bayesian seamless phase I-II designs

Early phase clinical trial designs have long been the focus of interest for clinicians and statisticians working in oncology field. There are several standard phse I and phase II designs that have been widely-implemented in medical practice. For phase I design, the most commonly used methods are 3+3 and CRM. A newly-developed Bayesian model-based mTPI design has now been used by an increasing number of hospitals and pharmaceutical companies. The advantages and disadvantages of these three top phase I designs have been discussed in my work here and their performances were compared using simulated data. It was shown that mTPI design exhibited superior performance in most scenarios in comparison with 3+3 and CRM designs. ^ The next major part of my work is proposing an innovative seamless phase I/II design that allows clinicians to conduct phase I and phase II clinical trials simultaneously. Bayesian framework was implemented throughout the whole design. The phase I portion of the design adopts mTPI method, with the addition of futility rule which monitors the efficacy performance of the tested drugs. Dose graduation rules were proposed in this design to allow doses move forward from phase I portion of the study to phase II portion without interrupting the ongoing phase I dose-finding schema. Once a dose graduated to phase II, adaptive randomization was used to randomly allocated patients into different treatment arms, with the intention of more patients being assigned to receive more promising dose(s). Again simulations were performed to compare the performance of this innovative phase I/II design with a recently published phase I/II design, together with the conventional phase I and phase II designs. The simulation results indicated that the seamless phase I/II design outperform the other two competing methods in most scenarios, with superior trial power and the fact that it requires smaller sample size. It also significantly reduces the overall study time. ^ Similar to other early phase clinical trial designs, the proposed seamless phase I/II design requires that the efficacy and safety outcomes being able to be observed in a short time frame. This limitation can be overcome by using validated surrogate marker for the efficacy and safety endpoints.^

A Time-Motion Study of Registered Nurses’ Workflow in Intensive Care Unit Remote Monitoring

Utilizing advanced information technology, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) remote monitoring allows highly trained specialists to oversee a large number of patients at multiple sites on a continuous basis. In the current research, we conducted a time-motion study of registered nurses’ work in an ICU remote monitoring facility. Data were collected on seven nurses through 40 hours of observation. The results showed that nurses’ essential tasks were centered on three themes: monitoring patients, maintaining patients’ health records, and managing technology use. In monitoring patients, nurses spent 52% of the time assimilating information embedded in a clinical information system and 15% on monitoring live vitals. System-generated alerts frequently interrupted nurses in their task performance and redirected them to manage suddenly appearing events. These findings provide insight into nurses’ workflow in a new, technology-driven critical care setting and have important implications for system design, work engineering, and personnel selection and training.

A study of factors regulating the autonomous proliferation of the steroid hormone-induced LJ6195 murine reproductive tract tumor

Neonatal estrogen treatment of BALB/c mice results in the unregulated proliferation of the cervicovaginal epithelium and eventually tumorigenesis. The conversion of the normally estrogen responsive cyclic proliferation of the vaginal epithelium to a continuous estrogen-independent pattern of growth is a complex phenomenon. The aim of this study was to gain an understanding of the mechanism(s) by which steroid hormone administration during a critical period of development alters the cyclic proliferation of vaginal epithelium, ultimately leading to carcinogenesis in the adult animal.^ The LJ6195 murine cervicovaginal tumor was induced by treating newborn female BALB/c mice with 20 $\mu$g 17$\beta$-estradiol plus 100 $\mu$g progesterone for the first 5 days after birth. In contrast to proliferation of the normal vaginal epithelium, proliferation of LJ6195 is not regulated by estradiol. Northern blot analysis of RNA from vaginal tracts of normal mice, neonatal-estrogen treated mice, and LJ6195 indicate that there is an alteration in the expression of several genes such as the estrogen receptor, c-fos, and HER2/neu. In response to neonatal estrogen treatment, the estrogen receptor is down regulated in the murine vaginal tract. Therefore, the estrogen-independent nature of this tissue is established as early as 3 months after treatment. There is strong evidence that the proliferation of LJ6195 is regulated through an autocrine growth pathway. The LJ6195 tumor expresses mRNA for the epidermal growth factor receptor. In addition, conditioned medium from the LJ6195 tumor cell line contains a growth factor(s) with epidermal growth factor-like activity. Conditioned medium from the LJ6195 cell line stimulated the proliferation of the EGF-dependent COMMA D mouse mammary gland cell line in a dose-dependent manner. The addition of an anti-mEGF-antibody to LJ6195 cell cultures significantly decreased growth. These results suggest that the EGF-receptor mediated growth pathway may play a role in regulating the estrogen-independent proliferation of the LJ6195 tumor. ^

Regression with autocorrelated data: A study of time trend of global infant mortality rate

The infant mortality rate (IMR) is considered to be one of the most important indices of a country's well-being. Countries around the world and other health organizations like the World Health Organization are dedicating their resources, knowledge and energy to reduce the infant mortality rates. The well-known Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), whose aim is to archive a two thirds reduction of the under-five mortality rate between 1990 and 2015, is an example of the commitment. ^ In this study our goal is to model the trends of IMR between the 1950s to 2010s for selected countries. We would like to know how the IMR is changing overtime and how it differs across countries. ^ IMR data collected over time forms a time series. The repeated observations of IMR time series are not statistically independent. So in modeling the trend of IMR, it is necessary to account for these correlations. We proposed to use the generalized least squares method in general linear models setting to deal with the variance-covariance structure in our model. In order to estimate the variance-covariance matrix, we referred to the time-series models, especially the autoregressive and moving average models. Furthermore, we will compared results from general linear model with correlation structure to that from ordinary least squares method without taking into account the correlation structure to check how significantly the estimates change.^