Future pandemic influenza control (FPIC) related strategic management plan based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza review of health policy decisions, their practice and implications

This cross-sectional study is based on the qualitative and quantitative research design to review health policy decisions, their practice and implications during 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in the United States and globally. The “Future Pandemic Influenza Control (FPIC) related Strategic Management Plan” was developed based on the incorporation of the “National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza (2005)” for the United States from the U.S. Homeland Security Council and “The Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan for the Health Sector (2006)” from the Canadian Pandemic Influenza Committee for use by the public health agencies in the United States as well as globally. The “global influenza experts’ survey” was primarily designed and administered via email through the “Survey Monkey” system to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic experts as the study respondents. The effectiveness of this plan was confirmed and the approach of the study questionnaire was validated to be convenient and the excellent quality of the questions provided an efficient opportunity to the study respondents to evaluate the effectiveness of predefined strategies/interventions for future pandemic influenza control.^ The quantitative analysis of the responses to the Likert-scale based questions in the survey about predefined strategies/interventions, addressing five strategic issues to control future pandemic influenza. The effectiveness of strategies defined as pertinent interventions in this plan was evaluated by targeting five strategic issues regarding pandemic influenza control. For the first strategic issue pertaining influenza prevention and pre pandemic planning; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for strategy (1a) 87.5%, strategy (1b) 91.7% and strategy (1c) 83.3%. The assessment of the priority level for strategies to address the strategic issue no. (1); (1b (High Priority) > 1a (Medium Priority) > 1c (Low Priority) based on the available resources of the developing and developed countries. For the second Strategic Issue encompassing the preparedness and communication regarding pandemic influenza control; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (2a) 95.6%, strategy (2b) 82.6%, strategy (2c) 91.3% and Strategy (2d) 87.0%. The assessment of the priority level for these strategies to address the strategic issue no. (2); (2a (highest priority) > 2c (high priority) >2d (medium priority) > 2b (low priority). For the third strategic issue encompassing the surveillance and detection of pandemic influenza; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (3a) 90.9% and strategy (3b) 77.3%. The assessment of the priority level for theses strategies to address the strategic Issue No. (3) (3a (high priority) > 3b (medium/low priority). For the fourth strategic issue pertaining the response and containment of pandemic influenza; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (4a) 63.6%, strategy (4b) 81.8%, strategy (4c) 86.3%, and strategy (4d) 86.4%. The assessment of the priority level for these strategies to address the strategic issue no. (4); (4d (highest priority) > 4c (high priority) > 4b (medium priority) > 4a (low priority). The fifth strategic issue about recovery from influenza and post pandemic planning; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (5a) 68.2%, strategy (5b) 36.3% and strategy (5c) 40.9%. The assessment of the priority level for strategies to address the strategic issue no. (5); (5a (high priority) > 5c (medium priority) > 5b (low priority).^ The qualitative analysis of responses to the open-ended questions in the study questionnaire was performed by means of thematic content analysis. The following recurrent or common “themes” were determined for the future implementation of various predefined strategies to address five strategic issues from the “FPIC related Strategic Management Plan” to control future influenza pandemics. (1) Pre Pandemic Influenza Prevention, (2) Seasonal Influenza Control, (3) Cost Effectiveness of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI), (4) Raising Global Public Awareness, (5) Global Influenza Vaccination Campaigns, (6)Priority for High Risk Population, (7) Prompt Accessibility and Distribution of Influenza Vaccines and Antiviral Drugs, (8) The Vital Role of Private Sector, (9) School Based Influenza Containment, (10) Efficient Global Risk Communication, (11) Global Research Collaboration, (12) The Critical Role of Global Public Health Organizations, (13) Global Syndromic Surveillance and Surge Capacity and (14) Post Pandemic Recovery and Lessons Learned. The future implementation of these strategies with confirmed effectiveness to primarily “reduce the overall response time’ in the process of ‘early detection’, ‘strategies (interventions) formulation’ and their ‘implementation’ to eventually ensure the following health outcomes: (a) reduced influenza transmission, (b) prompt and effective influenza treatment and control, (c) reduced influenza related morbidity and mortality.^

Use of intranet and other interventions to increase influenza vaccination among health care workers

Influenza (the flu) is a serious respiratory illness that can cause severe complications, often leading to hospitalization and even death. Influenza epidemics occur in most countries every year, usually during the winter months. Despite recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and efforts by health care institutions across the United States, influenza vaccination rates among health care workers in the United States remain low. How to increase the number of vaccinated health care workers is an important public health question and is examined in two journal articles included here. ^ The first journal article evaluates the effectiveness of an Intranet intervention in increasing the proportion of health care workers (HCWs) who received influenza vaccination. Hospital employees were required go to the hospital's Intranet and select "vaccine received," "contraindicated," or "declined" from the online questionnaire. Declining employees automatically received an online pop-up window with education about vaccination; managers were provided feedback on employees' participation rates via e-mail messages. Employees were reminded of the Intranet requirement in articles in the employee newsletter and on the hospital's Intranet. Reminders about the Intranet questionnaire were provided through managers and newsletters to the HCWs. Fewer than half the employees (43.7%) completed the online questionnaire. Yet the hospital witnessed a statistically significant increase in the percentage of employees who received the flu vaccine at the hospital – 48.5% in the 2008-09 season as compared to 36.5%, 38.5% and 29.8% in the previous three years (P < 0.05). ^ The second article assesses current interventions employed by hospitals, health systems and nursing homes to determine which policies have been the most effective in boosting vaccination rates among American health care workers. A systematic review of research published between January 1994 and March 2010 suggests that education is necessary but not usually sufficient to increase vaccine uptake. Education about the flu and flu vaccines is most effective when complemented with easy access and making the vaccine free, although this combination may not be sufficient to achieve the desired vaccination levels among HCWs. The findings point toward adding incentives for HCWs to get vaccinated and requiring them to record their vaccination status on a declination/consent form – either written or electronic. ^ Based on these findings, American health care organizations, such as hospitals, nursing homes, and long-term care facilities, should consider using online declination forms as a method for increasing influenza vaccination rates among their employees. These online forms should be used in conjunction with other policies, including free vaccine, mobile distribution and incentives. ^ To further spur health care organizations to adopt policies and practices that will raise influenza vaccination rates among employees, The Joint Commission – an independent, not-for- profit organization that accredits and certifies more than 17,000 health care organizations and programs in the United States – should consider altering its standards. Currently, The Joint Commission does not require signed declination forms from employees who eschew vaccination; it only echoes the CDC's recommendations: "Health care facilities should require personnel who refuse vaccination to complete a declination form." Because participation in Joint Commission accreditation is required for Medicare reimbursement, action taken by the Joint Commission to require interventions such as mandatory declination/consent forms might result in immediate action by health care organizations to follow these new standards and lead to higher vaccination rates among HCWs.^ 1“Frequently Asked Questions for H1N1 and Seasonal Influenza.” The Joint Commission - Infection Control: http://www.jointcommission.org/PatientSafety/InfectionControl/h1n1_faq.htm. ^

TB research at UT-Houston--a review of cord factor: new approaches to drugs, vaccines and the pathogenesis of tuberculosis.

Tuberculosis remains a major threat as drug resistance continues to increase. Pulmonary tuberculosis in adults is responsible for 80% of clinical cases and nearly 100% of transmission of infection. Unfortunately, since we have no animal models of adult type pulmonary tuberculosis, the most important type of disease remains largely out of reach of modern science and many fundamental questions remain unanswered. This paper reviews research dating back to the 1950's providing compelling evidence that cord factor (trehalose 6,6 dimycolate [TDM]) is essential for understanding tuberculosis. However, the original papers by Bloch and Noll were too far ahead of their time to have immediate impact. We can now recognize that the physical and biologic properties of cord factor are unprecedented in science, especially its ability to switch between two sets of biologic activities with changes in conformation. While TDM remains on organisms, it protects them from killing within macrophages, reduces antibiotic effectiveness and inhibits the stimulation of protective immune responses. If it comes off organisms and associates with lipid, TDM becomes a driver of tissue damage and necrosis. Studies emanating from cord factor research have produced (1) a rationale for improving vaccines, (2) an approach to new drugs that overcome natural resistance to antibiotics, (3) models of caseating granulomas that reproduce multiple manifestations of human tuberculosis. (4) evidence that TDM is a key T cell antigen in destructive lesions of tuberculosis, and (5) a new understanding of the pathology and pathogenesis of postprimary tuberculosis that can guide more informative studies of long standing mysteries of tuberculosis.

EFFICACY AND MECHANISM OF â-DEFENSIN2 FUSED ANTIGEN PROTEIN VACCINES

Vaccines which use the strategy of fusing adjuvant murine â-defensin2 (mBD2) to an antigen in order to elicit stronger anti-antigen immune responses are referred to as murine â-defensin2 (mBD2) vaccines. Previous studies have validated the potential of mBD2 vaccines, thus in this study we focus on increasing vaccine efficacy as well as mechanism elucidation. Initially, we demonstrate superior IFN-ã release levels by antigen specific effector T cells when antigen is crosspresented by dendritic cells (DC) which absorbed mBD2 vaccine (mBD2 fused antigen protein) over antigen alone. We move unto an in vivo model and note significant increases in the expansion of antigen specific class I T cells but not class II T cells when receiving mBD2 vaccine over antigen alone. Further, knowing mBD2’s link with CC chemokine receptor 6 (CCR6) and Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) we note that this enhanced class I T cell expansion is CCR6 independent but TLR4 dependent. With anti-tumor responses desired, we demonstrate in tumor protection experiments with mice, compelling tumor protection when combining adoptive T cell therapy and mBD2 vaccine immunization. We further note that mBD2 vaccines are not limited by the antigen and characterize a viable strategy for enhancing tumor antigen immunogenicity.

Prime-boost vaccination with plasmid and adenovirus gene vaccines control HER2/neu+ metastatic breast cancer in mice.

INTRODUCTION: Once metastasis has occurred, the possibility of completely curing breast cancer is unlikely, particularly for the 30 to 40% of cancers overexpressing the gene for HER2/neu. A vaccine targeting p185, the protein product of the HER2/neu gene, could have therapeutic application by controlling the growth and metastasis of highly aggressive HER2/neu+ cells. The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of two gene vaccines targeting HER2/neu in preventive and therapeutic tumor models. METHODS: The mouse breast cancer cell line A2L2, which expresses the gene for rat HER2/neu and hence p185, was injected into the mammary fat pad of mice as a model of solid tumor growth or was injected intravenously as a model of lung metastasis. SINCP-neu, a plasmid containing Sindbis virus genes and the gene for rat HER2/neu, and Adeno-neu, an E1,E2a-deleted adenovirus also containing the gene for rat HER2/neu, were tested as preventive and therapeutic vaccines. RESULTS: Vaccination with SINCP-neu or Adeno-neu before tumor challenge with A2L2 cells significantly inhibited the growth of the cells injected into the mammary fat or intravenously. Vaccination 2 days after tumor challenge with either vaccine was ineffective in both tumor models. However, therapeutic vaccination in a prime-boost protocol with SINCP-neu followed by Adeno-neu significantly prolonged the overall survival rate of mice injected intravenously with the tumor cells. Naive mice vaccinated using the same prime-boost protocol demonstrated a strong serum immunoglobulin G response and p185-specific cellular immunity, as shown by the results of ELISPOT (enzyme-linked immunospot) analysis for IFNgamma. CONCLUSION: We report herein that vaccination of mice with a plasmid gene vaccine and an adenovirus gene vaccine, each containing the gene for HER2/neu, prevented growth of a HER2/neu-expressing breast cancer cell line injected into the mammary fat pad or intravenously. Sequential administration of the vaccines in a prime-boost protocol was therapeutically effective when tumor cells were injected intravenously before the vaccination. The vaccines induced high levels of both cellular and humoral immunity as determined by in vitro assessment. These findings indicate that clinical evaluation of these vaccines, particularly when used sequentially in a prime-boost protocol, is justified.

Immune responses against major histocompatibility complex and interleukin-2 gene transfected K1735 murine melanoma: Potential vaccines for the immunotherapy of cancer

Tumor specific immunity is mediated by cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) that recognize peptide antigen (Ag) in the context of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I molecules and by helper T (Th) lymphocytes that recognize peptide Ag in the context of MHC class II molecules. The purpose of this study is (1) to induce or augment the immunogenicity of nonimmunogenic or weakly immunogenic tumors by genetic modification of tumor cells, and (2) to use these genetically altered cells in cancer immunotherapy. To study this, I transfected a highly tumorigenic murine melanoma cell line (K1735) that did not express constitutively either MHC class I or II molecules with syngeneic cloned MHC class I and/or class II genes, and then determined the tumorigenicity of transfected cells in normal C3H mice. K1735 transfectants expressing either $\rm K\sp{k}$ or $\rm A\sp{k}$ molecules alone produced tumors in normal C3H mice, whereas most transfectants that expressed both molecules were rejected in normal C3H mice but produced tumors in nude mice. The rejection of K1735 transfectants expressing $\rm K\sp{k}$ and $\rm A\sp{k}$ Ag in normal C3H mice required both $\rm CD4\sp+$ and $\rm CD8\sp+$ T cells. Interestingly, the $\rm A\sp{k}$ requirement can be substituted by IL-2 because transfection of $\rm K\sp{k}$-positive/A$\sp{\rm k}$-negative K1735 cells with the IL-2 gene also resulted in abrogation of tumorigenicity in normal C3H mice but not in nude mice. In addition, 1735 $(\rm I\sp+II\sp+)$ transfected cells can function as antigen presenting cells (APC) since they could process and present native hen egg lysozyme (HEL) to HEL specific T cell hybridomas. Furthermore, the transplantation immunity induced by K1735 transfectants expressing both $\rm K\sp{k}$ and $\rm A\sp{k}$ molecules completely cross-protected mice against challenge with $\rm K\sp{k}$-positive transfectants but weakly protected them against challenge with parental K1735 cells or $\rm A\sp{k}$-positive transfectants. Finally, I demonstrated that MHC $(\rm I\sp+II\sp+)$ or $\rm K\sp{k}$-positive/IL-2-positive cells can function as anti-cancer vaccines since they can abrogate the growth of established tumors and metastasis.^ In summary, my results indicate that expression of either MHC class I or II molecule alone is insufficient to cause the rejection of K1735 melanoma in syngeneic hosts and that both molecules are necessary. In addition, my data suggest that the failure of $\rm K\sp{k}$-positive K1735 cells to induce a primary tumor-rejection response in normal C3H mice may be due to their inability to induce the helper arm of the anti-tumor immune response. Finally, the ability of MHC $(\rm I\sp+II\sp+)$ or $\rm K\sp{k}$-positive/IL-2-positive cells to prevent growth of established tumors or metastasis suggests that these cell lines can serve as potential vaccines for the immunotherapy of cancer. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

Survey of VFC provider knowledge of catch-up regimens and contraindications to vaccination in Houston, Texas

In 2004, Houston had one of the lowest childhood immunization levels among major metropolitan cities in the United States at 65% for the 4:3:1:3:3 vaccination series. Delays in the receipt of scheduled vaccinations may be related to missed opportunities due to health care provider lack of knowledge about catch-up regimens and contraindications for pediatric vaccination. The objectives of this study are to identify, measure, and report on VFC provider-practice characteristics, knowledge of catch-up regimens and contraindications, and use of Reminder recall (R/R) and moved or gone elsewhere (MOGE) practices among providers with high (>80%) and low (<70%) immunization coverage among 19-35 month old children. The sampling frame consists of 187 Vaccines for Children (VFC) providers with 2004 clinic assessment software application (CASA) scores. Data were collected by personal interview with each participating practice provider. Only ten VFC providers were successful at maximizing vaccinations for every vignette and no provider administered the maximum possible number of vaccinations at visit 2 for all six vignettes. Both coverage groups administered polio conjugate vaccine (PCV), haemophilus influenza type b (Hib), and diphtheria, tetanus and acellular pertussis (DTaP) most frequently and omitted most frequently varicella zoster vaccine (VZV) and measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine. ^

Influenza vaccination and peoples' knowledge and attitudes towards it: Factors that influenced influenza vaccination during the 2004--2005 influenza vaccine shortage

Influenza and pneumonia together comprise the seventh leading cause of death among adults in the U.S and were responsible for 65,163 deaths in 2003 and an average of 36,000 deaths per year in the United States from 1990 to 1999. Vaccination is efficacious and cost-effective in terms of preventing the infection and reducing both health care costs and productivity losses associated with influenza illness. The vaccine shortage of 2004–2005 resulted in a 39% decrease in the influenza vaccine supplies. During the fall of 2004, we conducted a nationwide, random-digit dialing, telephonic-interview survey of 1,202 adults aged 18 years and older to ascertain influenza vaccine knowledge, attitude and behavior. Of the 1,202 total interviewed subjects, 44.7% had received or intended to receive vaccine at the time of the survey (2004–05) and 39.6% had received the influenza vaccine the previous year (2003–04). Receipt of vaccine increased with previous receipt of the influenza vaccine (OR 13.17, 95% CI 8.65–20.08), increased motivation status (OR 7.58, 95% CI 4.03–14.25), subjective risk status (OR 3.33, 95% CI 2.23–4.97), age (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.22–2.75) and previous receipt of the pneumococcal vaccine (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.02–3.0). The influenza vaccine shortage of 2004–05 did not have a negative impact on the vaccination rates of study population. In addition to the increased rates, a large majority of respondents were also aware of the shortage of influenza vaccine during the 2004–05 season, about the indications for receiving the influenza vaccine, about alternative methods to prevent contracting the influenza and increased motivation to receive the vaccine. ^

A model for use by local public health departments to evaluate pandemic influenza plans

The events of the 1990's and early 2000's demonstrated the need for effective planning and response to natural and man-made disasters. One of those potential natural disasters is pandemic flu. Once defined, the CDC stated that program, or plan, effectiveness is improved through the process of program evaluation. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1999) Program evaluation should be accomplished not only periodically, but in the course of routine administration of the program. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1999) Accomplishing this task for a "rare, but significant event" is challenging. (Herbold, John R., PhD., 2008) To address this challenge, the RAND Corporation (under contract to the CDC) developed the "Facilitated Look-Backs" approach that was tested and validated at the state level. (Aledort et al., 2006).^ Nevertheless, no comprehensive and generally applicable pandemic influenza program evaluation tool or model is readily found for use at the local public health department level. This project developed such a model based on the "Facilitated Look-Backs" approach developed by RAND Corporation. (Aledort et al., 2006) Modifications to the RAND model included stakeholder additions, inclusion of all six CDC program evaluation steps, and suggestions for incorporating pandemic flu response plans in seasonal flu management implementation. Feedback on the model was then obtained from three LPHD's—one rural, one suburban, and one urban. These recommendations were incorporated into the final model. Feedback from the sites also supported the assumption that this model promotes the effective and efficient evaluation of both pandemic flu and seasonal flu response by reducing redundant evaluations of pandemic flu plans, seasonal flu plans, and funding requirement accountability. Site feedback also demonstrated that the model is comprehensive and flexible, so it can be adapted and applied to different LPHD needs and settings. It also stimulates evaluation of the major issues associated with pandemic flu planning. ^ The next phase in evaluating this model should be to apply it in a program evaluation of one or more LPHD's seasonal flu response that incorporates pandemic flu response plans.^

A community-based assessment of the spatiotemporal distribution of influenza in a U.S.-Mexico border county during the spring 2009 novel H1N1 swine-origin influenza A pandemic

This study retrospectively evaluated the spatial and temporal disease patterns associated with influenza-like illness (ILI), positive rapid influenza antigen detection tests (RIDT), and confirmed H1N1 S-OIV cases reported to the Cameron County Department of Health and Human Services between April 26 and May 13, 2009 using the space-time permutation scan statistic software SaTScan in conjunction with geographical information system (GIS) software ArcGIS 9.3. The rate and age-adjusted relative risk of each influenza measure was calculated and a cluster analysis was conducted to determine the geographic regions with statistically higher incidence of disease. A Poisson distribution model was developed to identify the effect that socioeconomic status, population density, and certain population attributes of a census block-group had on that area's frequency of S-OIV confirmed cases over the entire outbreak. Predominant among the spatiotemporal analyses of ILI, RIDT and S-OIV cases in Cameron County is the consistent pattern of a high concentration of cases along the southern border with Mexico. These findings in conjunction with the slight northward space-time shifts of ILI and RIDT cluster centers highlight the southern border as the primary site for public health interventions. Finally, the community-based multiple regression model revealed that three factors—percentage of the population under age 15, average household size, and the number of high school graduates over age 25—were significantly associated with laboratory-confirmed S-OIV in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Together, these findings underscore the need for community-based surveillance, improve our understanding of the distribution of the burden of influenza within the community, and have implications for vaccination and community outreach initiatives.^

A systematic review of the animal and human literature on the use of vaccines to prevent dental caries

Streptococcus mutans has been identified as the primary etiological agent of human dental caries. Since its identification, there has been research focused on the development of a vaccine to prevent this disease. Preliminary research has been conducted to test both active and passive vaccines for Streptococcus mutans in animals and humans. Although a vaccine for dental caries caused by Streptococcus mutans would most likely be administered to children, no testing of any type of dental caries vaccines has been conducted on children as of yet. The public health imperative for the development of a vaccine is great. Not only will a vaccine reduce the various consequences, but it would also improve quality of life for many individuals. Among the many possible vaccine antigen candidates, researchers have also been focusing on protein antigens, GTFs, and Gbps as possible candidates for a vaccine. There are also many routes of administration under research, with topical, oral, and intranasal showing a lot of promise. This review will provide an overview on the current state of research, present key factors influencing prevalence of caries, and summarize and discuss the results of animal and human studies on caries vaccines against Streptococcus mutans. The progress and obstacles facing the development of a vaccine to fight dental caries will also be discussed. ^

Systematic review of acceptance of the influenza vaccine among pregnant women

Exposure to influenza places pregnant women at risk for pneumonia and their fetus at risk for premature delivery or fatal stillbirth secondary to maternal hypoxia. Immunization rates are low among pregnant women. Influenza vaccine specific-health belief model constructs, such as cue to action messages from the health care professionals, may increase acceptance of the vaccine and improve immunization rates. A systematic review was conducted to evaluate the impact of physician recommendation upon acceptance of the influenza vaccine by pregnant women. Pregnant women were more likely to accept the influenza vaccine if they received a recommendation from their physician. These women were also more likely to accept the vaccine if they thought the vaccine protected mother and fetus against adverse effects of influenza and were less likely to accept the vaccine if they were concerned about side effects or risk to the fetus from the vaccine.^

Epidemiological trends of influenza A positive patients hospitalized at St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital, Houston, Texas September, 2009--January, 2010

This study was a descriptive analysis of 437 influenza A positive inpatients and outpatients during the five month period between September, 2009 and January, 2010. The objective of the study was to describe the epidemiological trends of the total influenza A positive population and more specifically the clinical features of patients hospitalized with influenza A at St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital in Houston, Texas from September 2009 through January 2010. Eligible cases were included if they tested positive for influenza A test using the rapid antigen test and/or rRT-PCR. Hospitalized cases were included based on the laboratory confirmation of influenza A as well as hospital admission for at least 24 hours. Data was collected from medical record abstraction and included patient demographics, clinical history and history of chronic disease. Clinical findings in the differential diagnosis that led to laboratory-confirmation of influenza A as well as course of treatment during the hospital admission were summarized. Finally, co-morbid conditions charted during the hospital visit were reviewed and evaluated for associations with influenza A complications. During the study period, forty-eight patients were included in the study of which 27 tested positive for the H1N1 subtype. Females were more likely to be hospitalized than men. The median age of all patients admitted to St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital with influenza A was 42. The distribution for admitted cases was 15 White, 15 Black, and 18 Hispanic. Patients with co-morbid disease constituted 81% of the admissions for Influenza A. The presence of an underlying medical condition remains a risk factor for both seasonal and H1N1 influenza. Although respiratory conditions such as asthma and COPD are commonly associated with complications of seasonal influenza, patients with metabolic disorders such as kidney disease and/or diabetes were admitted more frequently (58%) during the study period. The patients in the study also of a much younger age than the age that is usually associated with complications of influenza infection, i.e. no patients greater than 65 years of age were admitted with a diagnosis of influenza A. Lower infection rates among elderly populations were similarly reported in other studies of influenza during the same time period. Older patient populations may benefit from antibodies to previous H1N1 strains that have circulated during the twentieth century, whereas younger age groups lack these exposures.^

Studies of biological rhythms in responses to influenza infection and vaccination

Three studies examined seasonal or circadian variations in selected responses to influenza infection or vaccination. The first, a seroepidemiologic study, evaluated temporal patterns of antibody titers to influenza A/Texas. Human umbilical cord bloods were sampled over a two-year period when the virus was not present in the community. No endogenous seasonal pattern was detected. The second study included three experiments on circadian rhythms in mice. Neither susceptibility nor protection from inactivated or attenuated vaccine varied significantly according to time of administration. A slight effect, however, was suggested with inactivated vaccine. Three human vaccine trials comprised the third study. Outcome variables included rise in antibody titer, final antibody titer, incidence of adverse reactions, and protection from community infection. Patterns in antibody response and protection variables were inconsistent, and generally not clinically significant. Local reactions to inactivated vaccine were more frequent if injections were received in the afternoon as compared to morning. This was true to adults that had been previously vaccinated. ^

A STUDY OF INFLUENZA AND OF STATISTICAL METHODS USED TO REPORT INFLUENZA

This paper defines and compares several models for describing excess influenza pneumonia mortality in Houston. First, the methodology used by the Center for Disease Control is examined and several variations of this methodology are studied. All of the models examined emphasize the difficulty of omitting epidemic weeks.^ In an attempt to find a better method of describing expected and epidemic mortality, time series methods are examined. Grouping in four-week periods, truncating the data series to adjust epidemic periods, and seasonally-adjusting the series y(,t), by:^ (DIAGRAM, TABLE OR GRAPHIC OMITTED...PLEASE SEE DAI)^ is the best method examined. This new series w(,t) is stationary and a moving average model MA(1) gives a good fit for forecasting influenza and pneumonia mortality in Houston.^ Influenza morbidity, other causes of death, sex, race, age, climate variables, environmental factors, and school absenteeism are all examined in terms of their relationship to influenza and pneumonia mortality. Both influenza morbidity and ischemic heart disease mortality show a very high relationship that remains when seasonal trends are removed from the data. However, when jointly modeling the three series it is obvious that the simple time series MA(1) model of truncated, seasonally-adjusted four-week data gives a better forecast.^