The effects of population density on the spread of disease

The objective of this study is to identify the relationship between population density and the initial stages of the spread of disease in a local population. This study proposes to concentrate on the question of how population density affects the distribution of the susceptible individuals in a local population and thus affects the spread of the disease, measles. Population density is measured by the average of the number of contacts with susceptible individuals by each individual in the population during a fixed-length time period. The term “contact with susceptible individuals” means sufficient contact between two people for the disease to pass from an infectious person to a susceptible person. The fixed-length time period is taken to be the average length of time an infected person is infectious without symptoms of the disease. For this study of measles, the time period will be seven days. ^ While much attention has been given to modeling the entire epidemic process of measles, attempts have not been made to study the characteristics of contact rates required to initiate an epidemic. This study explores the relationship between population density, given a specific herd immunity rate in the population, and initial rate of the spread of the disease by considering the underlying distribution of contacts with susceptibles by the individuals in the population. ^ This study does not seek to model an entire measles epidemic, but to model the above stated relationship for the local population within which the first infective person is introduced. This study describes the mathematical relationship between population density parameters and contact distribution parameters. ^ The results are displayed in graphs that show the effects of different population densities on the spread of disease. The results support the idea that the number of new infectives is strongly related to the distribution of susceptible contacts. The results also show large differences in the epidemic measures between populations with densities equal to four versus three. ^

Hepatitis C and human immunodeficiency virus infections in injecting drug users in drug treatment centers in Vietnam

Background. Injecting drug users (IDUs) are at risk of infection with Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Independently, each of these viruses is a serious threat to health, with HIV ravaging the body’s immune system, and HCV causing cirrhosis, liver cancer and liver failure. Co-infection with HIV/HCV weakens the response to antiretroviral therapy in HIV patients. IDUs with HIV/HCV co-infection are at a 20 times higher risk of having liver-related morbidity and mortality than IDUs with HIV alone. In Vietnam, studies to ascertain the prevalence of HIV have found high rates, but little is known about their HCV status. ^ Purpose. To measure the prevalence of HCV and HIV infection and identify factors associated with these viruses among IDUs at drug treatment centers in northern Vietnam. ^ Methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted from November 2007 to February 2008 with 455 injecting drug users aged 18 to 39 years, admitted no more than two months earlier to one of four treatment centers in Northern Vietnam (Hatay Province) (response rate=95%). Participants, all of whom had completed detoxification and provided informed consent, completed a risk assessment questionnaire and had their blood drawn to test for the presence of antibody-HCV and antibody-HIV with enzyme immuno assays. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were utilized to explore the strength of association using HIV, HCV infections and HIV/HCV co-infection as outcomes and demographic characteristics, drug use and sexual behaviors as factors associated with these outcomes. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. ^ Results. Among all IDU study participants, the prevalence of HCV alone was 76.9%, HIV alone was 19.8%. The prevalence of HIV/HCV co-infection was 92.2% of HIV-positive and 23.7% of HCV-positive respondents. No sexual risk behaviors for lifetime, six months or 30 days prior to admission were significantly associated with HCV or HIV infection among these IDUs. Only duration of injection drug use was independently associated with HCV and HIV infection, respectively. Longer duration was associated with higher prevalence. Nevertheless, while HCV infection among IDUs who reported being in their first year of injecting drugs were lower than longer time injectors, their rates were still substantial, 67.5%. ^ Compared with either HCV mono-infection or HIV/HCV non-infection, HIV/HCV co-infection was associated with the length of drug injection history but was not associated with sexual behaviors. Higher education was associated with a lower prevalence of HIV/HCV co-infection. When compared with HIV/HCV non-infection, current marriage was associated with a lower prevalence of HIV/HCV co-infection. ^ Conclusions. HCV was prevalent among IDUs from 18 to 39 years old at four drug treatment centers in northern Vietnam. Co-infection with HCV was predominant among HIV-positive IDUs. HCV and HIV co-infection were closely associated with the length of injection drug history. Further research regarding HCV/HIV co-infection should include non-injecting drug users to assess the magnitude of sexual risk behaviors on HIV and HCV infection. (At these treatment centers non-IDUs constituted 10-20% of the population.) High prevalence of HCV prevalence among IDUs, especially among HIV-infected IDUs, suggests that drug treatment centers serving IDUs should include not only HIV prevention education but they should also include the prevention of viral hepatitis. In addition, IDUs who are HIV-positive need to be tested for HCV to receive the best course of therapy and achieve the best response to HIV treatment. These data also suggest that because many IDUs get infected with HCV in the first year of their injection drug career, and because they also engaged in high risk sexual behaviors, outreach programs should focus on harm reduction, safer drug use and sexual practices to prevent infection among drug users who have not yet begun injecting drugs and to prevent further spread of HCV, HIV and co-infection. ^

Effect of the emergence of community acquired methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus on microbial resistance patterns seen during a seven year study of minocycline/rifampin catheter use

Background. Health care associated catheter related blood stream infections (CRBSI) represent a significant public health concern in the United States. Several studies have suggested that precautions such as maximum sterile barrier and use of antimicrobial catheters are efficacious at reducing CRBSI, but there is concern within the medical community that the prolonged use of antimicrobial catheters may be associated with increased bacterial resistance. Clinical studies have been done showing no association and a significant decrease in microbial resistance with prolonged minocycline/rifampin (M/R) catheter use. One explanation is the emergence of community acquired methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), which is more susceptible to antibiotics, as a cause of CRBSI.^ Methods. Data from 323 MRSA isolates cultured from cancer patients at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer center from 1997-2007 displaying MRSA infection were analyzed to determine whether there is a relationship between resistance to minocycline and rifampin and prolonged wide spread use of minocycline (M/R) catheters. Analysis was also conducted to determine whether there was a significant change in the prevalence community acquired MRSA (CA-MRSA) during this time period and if this emergence act as a confounder masquerading the true relationship between microbial resistance and prolonged M/R catheter use.^ Results. Our study showed that the significant (p=0.008) change in strain type over time is a confounding variable; the adjusted model showed a significant protective effect (OR 0.000281, 95% CI 1.4x10 -4-5.5x10-4) in the relationship between MRSA resistance to minocycline and prolonged M/R catheter use. The relationship between resistance to rifampin and prolonged M/R catheter use was not significant.^ Conclusion. The emergence of CA-MRSA is a confounder and in the relationship between resistance to minocycline and rifampin and prolonged M/R catheter use. However, despite the adjustment for the more susceptible CA-MRSA the widespread use of M/R catheters does not promote microbial resistance. ^

Distribution of quality adjusted life expectancy: A systems approach

Statistical methods are developed which assess survival data for two attributes; (1) prolongation of life, (2) quality of life. Health state transition probabilities correspond to prolongation of life and are modeled as a discrete-time semi-Markov process. Imbedded within the sojourn time of a particular health state are the quality of life transitions. They reflect events which differentiate perceptions of pain and suffering over a fixed time period. Quality of life transition probabilities are derived from the assumptions of a simple Markov process. These probabilities depend on the health state currently occupied and the next health state to which a transition is made. Utilizing the two forms of attributes the model has the capability to estimate the distribution of expected quality adjusted life years (in addition to the distribution of expected survival times). The expected quality of life can also be estimated within the health state sojourn time making more flexible the assessment of utility preferences. The methods are demonstrated on a subset of follow-up data from the Beta Blocker Heart Attack Trial (BHAT). This model contains the structure necessary to make inferences when assessing a general survival problem with a two dimensional outcome. ^