Design and analysis for three level hierarchical structures with count response

In numerous intervention studies and education field trials, random assignment to treatment occurs in clusters rather than at the level of observation. This departure of random assignment of units may be due to logistics, political feasibility, or ecological validity. Data within the same cluster or grouping are often correlated. Application of traditional regression techniques, which assume independence between observations, to clustered data produce consistent parameter estimates. However such estimators are often inefficient as compared to methods which incorporate the clustered nature of the data into the estimation procedure (Neuhaus 1993).1 Multilevel models, also known as random effects or random components models, can be used to account for the clustering of data by estimating higher level, or group, as well as lower level, or individual variation. Designing a study, in which the unit of observation is nested within higher level groupings, requires the determination of sample sizes at each level. This study investigates the design and analysis of various sampling strategies for a 3-level repeated measures design on the parameter estimates when the outcome variable of interest follows a Poisson distribution. ^ Results study suggest that second order PQL estimation produces the least biased estimates in the 3-level multilevel Poisson model followed by first order PQL and then second and first order MQL. The MQL estimates of both fixed and random parameters are generally satisfactory when the level 2 and level 3 variation is less than 0.10. However, as the higher level error variance increases, the MQL estimates become increasingly biased. If convergence of the estimation algorithm is not obtained by PQL procedure and higher level error variance is large, the estimates may be significantly biased. In this case bias correction techniques such as bootstrapping should be considered as an alternative procedure. For larger sample sizes, those structures with 20 or more units sampled at levels with normally distributed random errors produced more stable estimates with less sampling variance than structures with an increased number of level 1 units. For small sample sizes, sampling fewer units at the level with Poisson variation produces less sampling variation, however this criterion is no longer important when sample sizes are large. ^ 1Neuhaus J (1993). “Estimation efficiency and Tests of Covariate Effects with Clustered Binary Data”. Biometrics , 49, 989–996^

HPV vaccine coverage in Texas counties: An application of multilevel, small area estimation

Health departments, research institutions, policy-makers, and healthcare providers are often interested in knowing the health status of their clients/constituents. Without the resources, financially or administratively, to go out into the community and conduct health assessments directly, these entities frequently rely on data from population-based surveys to supply the information they need. Unfortunately, these surveys are ill-equipped for the job due to sample size and privacy concerns. Small area estimation (SAE) techniques have excellent potential in such circumstances, but have been underutilized in public health due to lack of awareness and confidence in applying its methods. The goal of this research is to make model-based SAE accessible to a broad readership using clear, example-based learning. Specifically, we applied the principles of multilevel, unit-level SAE to describe the geographic distribution of HPV vaccine coverage among females aged 11-26 in Texas.^ Multilevel (3 level: individual, county, public health region) random-intercept logit models of HPV vaccination (receipt of ≥ 1 dose Gardasil® ) were fit to data from the 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (outcome and level 1 covariates) and a number of secondary sources (group-level covariates). Sampling weights were scaled (level 1) or constructed (levels 2 & 3), and incorporated at every level. Using the regression coefficients (and standard errors) from the final models, I simulated 10,000 datasets for each regression coefficient from the normal distribution and applied them to the logit model to estimate HPV vaccine coverage in each county and respective demographic subgroup. For simplicity, I only provide coverage estimates (and 95% confidence intervals) for counties.^ County-level coverage among females aged 11-17 varied from 6.8-29.0%. For females aged 18-26, coverage varied from 1.9%-23.8%. Aggregated to the state level, these values translate to indirect state estimates of 15.5% and 11.4%, respectively; both of which fall within the confidence intervals for the direct estimates of HPV vaccine coverage in Texas (Females 11-17: 17.7%, 95% CI: 13.6, 21.9; Females 18-26: 12.0%, 95% CI: 6.2, 17.7).^ Small area estimation has great potential for informing policy, program development and evaluation, and the provision of health services. Harnessing the flexibility of multilevel, unit-level SAE to estimate HPV vaccine coverage among females aged 11-26 in Texas counties, I have provided (1) practical guidance on how to conceptualize and conduct modelbased SAE, (2) a robust framework that can be applied to other health outcomes or geographic levels of aggregation, and (3) HPV vaccine coverage data that may inform the development of health education programs, the provision of health services, the planning of additional research studies, and the creation of local health policies.^

A comparative analysis of hospital -based physician monitoring systems

The purpose of the multiple case-study was to determine how hospital subsystems (such as physician monitoring and credentialing; quality assurance; risk management; and peer review) were supporting the monitoring of physicians? Three large metropolitan hospitals in Texas were studied and designated as hospitals #1, #2, and #3. Realizing that hospital subsystems are a unique entity and part of a larger system, conclusions were made on the premises of a quality control system, in relation to the tools of government (particularly the Health Care Quality Improvement Act (HCQIA)), and in relation to itself as a tool of a hospital.^ Three major analytical assessments were performed. First, the subsystems were analyzed as to their "completeness"; secondly, the subsystems were analyzed for "performance"; and thirdly, the subsystems were analyzed in reference to the interaction of completeness and performance.^ The physician credentialing and monitoring and the peer review subsystems as quality control systems were most complete, efficient, and effective in hospitals #1 and #3. The HCQIA did not seem to be an influencing factor in the completeness of the subsystem in hospital #1. The quality assurance and risk management subsystem in hospital #2 was not representative of completeness and performance and the HCQIA was not an influencing factor in the completeness of the Q.A. or R.M. systems in any hospital. The efficiency (computerization) of the physician credentialing, quality assurance and peer review subsystems in hospitals #1 and #3 seemed to contribute to their effectiveness (system-wide effect).^ The results indicated that the more complete, effective, and efficient subsystems were characterized by (1) all defined activities being met, (2) the HCQIA being an influencing factor, (3) a decentralized administrative structure, (4) computerization an important element, and (5) staff was sophisticated in subsystem operations. However, other variables were identified which deserve further research as to their effect on completeness and performance of subsystems. They include (1) medical staff affiliations, (2) system funding levels, (3) the system's administrative structure, and (4) the physician staff "cultural" characteristics. Perhaps by understanding other influencing factors, health care administrators may plan subsystems that will be compatible with legislative requirements and administrative objectives. ^

Expression, induction and regulation of the cytochrome P450 monooxygenase system in the rat glioma C6 cell line

The cytochrome P450 monooxygenase system consists of NADPH- cytochrome P450 reductase (P450 reductase) and cytochromes P450, which can catalyze the oxidation of a wide variety of endogenous and exogenous compounds, including steroid hormones, fatty acids, drugs, and pollutants. The functions of this system are as diverse as the substrates. P450 reductase transfers reducing equivalents from NADPH to P450, which in turn catalyzes metabolic reactions. This enzyme system has the highest level of activity in the liver. It is also present in other tissues, including brain. The functions of this enzyme system in brain seem to include: neurotransmission, neuroendocrinology, developmental and behavioral modulation, regulation of intracellular levels of cholesterol, and potential neurotoxicity.^ In this study, we have set up the rat glioma C6 cell line as an in vitro model system to examine the expression, induction, and tissue-specific regulation of P450s and P450 reductase. Rat glioma C6 cells were treated with P450 inducers phenobarbital (PB) or benzo(a)anthracene (BA). The presence of P450 reductase and of cytochrome P450 1A1, 1A2, 2A1, 2B1/2, 2C7, 2D1-5 and 2E1 was detected by reverse transcription followed by polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and confirmed by restriction digestion. The induction of P450 1A1 and 2B1/2 and P450 reductase was quantified using competitive PCR. Ten- and five-fold inductions of P450 1A and 2B mRNA after BA or PB treatments, respectively, were detected. Western blot analysis of microsomal preparations of glioma C6 cells demonstrated the presence of P450 1A, 2B and P450 reductase at the protein level. ELISAs showed that BA and PB induce P450 1A and 2B proteins 7.3- and 13.5-fold, respectively. Microsomes prepared from rat glioma C6 cells showed cytochrome P450 CO difference spectra with absorption at or near 450 nm. Microsomes prepared from rat glioma C6 cells demonstrated much higher levels of ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) and pentoxyresorufin O-dealkylase (PROD) activity, when treated with BA or PB, respectively. These experiments provide further evidence that the rat glioma C6 cell line contains an active cytochrome P450 monooxygenase system which can be induced by P450 inducers. The mRNAs of P450 1A1 and 2B1/2 can not bind to the oligo(dT) column efficiently, indicating they have very short poly(A) tails. This finding leads us to study the tissue specific regulation of P450s at post-transcriptional level. The half lives of P450 1A1 and 2B1/2 mRNA in glioma C6 cells are only 1/10 and 1/3 of that in liver. This may partly contribute to the low expression level of P450s in glial cells. The induction of P450s by BA or PB did not change their mRNA half lives, indicating the induction may be due to transcriptional regulation. In summary of this study, we believe the presence of the cytochrome P450 monooxygenase system in glial cells of the brain may be important in chemotherapy and carcinogenesis of brain tumors. ^

AN ASCENDING SEROTONERGIC PAIN MODULATION SYSTEM

This dissertation describes an ascending serotonergic pain modulation system projecting from the dorsal raphe (DR) nucleus of the midbrain to the parafascicularis (PF) nucleus of the thalamus. Previous studies by other investigators have led to the hypothesis that the DR would modulate responses to noxious stimuli in the PF by using 5HT. These other studies have shown that the DR contains serotonergic (5HT) cell bodies which project to many areas of the forebrain including the PF, that the PF is involved in pain perception, that electrical stimulation of the DR causes analgesia, and 5HT is necessary for this type of analgesia. One theory of the mechanisms of an endogenous pain modulation system is that brainstem nuclei have a decsending projection to the spinal cord to inhibit responses to noxious input at this level. The present study tests the hypothesis that there is also an ascending pain modulation pathway from the brainstem to the thalamus.^ To test this hypothesis, several types of experiments were performed on anesthetised rats. The major results of the experiments are as follows: (1) Three types of spontaneously active PF neurons were found: slow units firing at 1-10 spikes/sec, bursting units firing 2-5 times in 10-20 msec, pattern repeating every 1-2 sec, and fast units firing at 15-40 spikes/sec. The first two groups showed similar results to the treatments and were analysed together. The fast firing units did not respond to any of the treatments. (2) Noxious stimuli primarily increased neuronal firing rates in the PF, where as DR stimulation primarily decreased neuronal activity. DR stimulation applied simultaneously with noxious stimuli decreased the responses to the noxious stimuli as recorded in the PF units. (3) Microiontophoretically applied 5HT in the PF decreased spontaneous activity in the PF in a dose dependent manner and decreases responses to noxious stimuli in the PF. (4) Reduction of brain 5HT by 5,7 dihydroxytryptamine, a potent 5HT neurotoxin, caused PF units to be hypersensitive to both noxious and non noxious stimuli, reversed the effects of DR stimulation so that DR stimulation increased single units activity in the PF, and prolonged and intensified the depressant action of microiontophoretically applied 5HT. The results of this study are consistent with the hypothesis that the DR uses 5HT in a direct ascending pathway to the PF to modulate pain in the thalamus. ^

Molecular consequences of the loss of 3'→5' exonuclease activity of DNA polymerases delta and epsilon

The DNA replication polymerases δ and ϵ have an inherent proofreading mechanism in the form of a 3'→5' exonuclease. Upon recognition of errant deoxynucleotide incorporation into DNA, the nascent primer terminus is partitioned to the exonuclease active site where the incorrectly paired nucleotide is excised before resumption of polymerization. The goal of this project was to identify the cellular and molecular consequences of an exonuclease deficiency. The proofreading capability of model system MEFs with EXOII mutations was abolished without altering polymerase function.^ It was hypothesized that 3'→5' exonucleases of polymerases δ and ϵ are critical for prevention of replication stress and important for sensitization to nucleoside analogs. To test this hypothesis, two aims were formulated: Determine the effect of the exonuclease active site mutation on replication related molecular signaling and identify the molecular consequences of an exonuclease deficiency when replication is challenged with nucleoside analogs.^ Via cell cycle studies it was determined that larger populations of exonuclease deficient cells are in the S-phase. There was an increase in levels of replication proteins, cell population growth and DNA synthesis capacity without alteration in cell cycle progression. These findings led to studies of proteins involved in checkpoint activation and DNA damage sensing. Finally, collective modifications at the level of DNA replication likely affect the strand integrity of DNA at the chromosomal level.^ Gemcitabine, a DNA directed nucleoside analog is a substrate of polymerases δ and ϵ and exploits replication to become incorporated into DNA. Though accumulation of gemcitabine triphosphate was similar in all cell types, incorporation into DNA and rates of DNA synthesis were increased in exonuclease defective cells and were not consistent with clonogenic survival. This led to molecular signaling investigations which demonstrated an increase in S-phase cells and activation of a DNA damage response upon gemcitabine treatment.^ Collectively, these data indicate that the loss of exonuclease results in a replication stress response that is likely required to employ other repair mechanisms to remove unexcised mismatches introduced into DNA during replication. When challenged with nucleoside analogs, this ongoing stress response coupled with repair serves as a resistance mechanism to cell death.^

NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

APPLICATION OF THE BRAINSTEM EVOKED RESPONSE (BER) TO NEUROTOXICITY EVALUATION OF THE AUDITORY SYSTEM: ASSESSMENT OF INORGANIC LEAD-INDUCED OTOTOXICITY

An experimental procedure was developed using the Brainstem Evoked Response (BER) electrophysiological technique to assess the effect of neurotoxic substances on the auditory system. The procedure utilizes Sprague-Dawley albino rats who have had dural electrodes implanted in their skulls, allowing neuroelectric evoked potentials to be recorded from their brainstems. Latency and amplitude parameters derived from the evoked potentials help assess the neuroanatomical integrity of the auditory pathway in the brainstem. Moreover, since frequency-specific auditory stimuli are used to evoke the neural responses, additional audiometric information is obtainable. An investigation on non-exposed control animals shows the BER threshold curve obtained by tests at various frequencies very closely approximates that obtained by behavioral audibility tests. Thus, the BER appears to be a valid measure of both functional and neuroanatomical integrity of the afferent auditory neural pathway.^ To determine the usefulness of the BER technique in neurobehavioral toxicology research, a known neurotoxic agent, Pb, was studied. Female Sprague-Dawley rats were dosed for 45 days with low levels of Pb acetate in their drinking water, after which BER recordings were obtained. The Pb dosages were determined from the findings of an earlier pilot study. One group of 6 rats received normal tap water, one group of 7 rats received a solution of 0.1% Pb, and another group of 7 rats received a solution of 0.2% Pb. After 45 days, the three groups exhibited blood Pb levels of 4.5 (+OR-) 0.43 (mu)g/100 ml, 37.8 (+OR-) 4.8 (mu)g/100 ml and 47.3 (+OR-) 2.7 (mu)g/100 ml, respectively.^ The results of the BER recording indicated evoked response waveform latency abnormalities in both the Pb-treated groups when midrange frequency (8 kHz to 32 kHz) stimuli were used. For the most part, waveform amplitudes did not vary significantly from control values. BER recordings obtained after a 30-day recovery period indicated the effects seen in the 0.1% Pb group had disappeared. However, those anomalies exhibited by the 0.2% Pb group either remained or increased in number. This outcome indicates a longer lasting or possibly irreversible effect on the auditory system from the higher dose of Pb. The auditory pathway effect appears to be in the periphery, at the level of the cochlea or the auditory (VIII) nerve. The results of this research indicate the BER technique is a valuable and sensitive indicator of low-level toxic effects on the auditory system.^