Does cigarette smoking modify the association between change in body mass index during young adulthood and risk of coronary mortality during middle-age in men? Twenty-five year follow-up results from the Chicago Western Electric Study

Many persons in the U.S. gain weight during young adulthood, and the prevalence of obesity has been increasing among young adults. Although obesity and physical inactivity are generally recognized as risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD), the magnitude of their effect on risk may have been seriously underestimated due to failure to adequately handle the problem of cigarette smoking. Since cigarette smoking causes weight loss, physically inactive cigarette smokers may remain relatively lean because they smoke cigarettes. We hypothesize cigarette smoking modifies the association between weight gain during young adulthood and risk of coronary heart disease during middle age, and that the true effect of weight gain during young adulthood on risk of CHD can be assessed only in persons who have not smoked cigarettes. Specifically, we hypothesize that weight gain during young adulthood is positively associated with risk of CHD during middle-age in nonsmokers but that the association is much smaller or absent entirely among cigarette smokers. The purpose of this study was to test this hypothesis. The population for analysis was comprised of 1,934 middle-aged, employed men whose average age at the baseline examination was 48.7 years. Information collected at the baseline examinations in 1958 and 1959 included recalled weight at age 20, present weight, height, smoking status, and other CHD risk factors. To decrease the effect of intraindividual variation, the mean values of the 1958 and 1959 baseline examinations were used in analyses. Change in body mass index ($\Delta$BMI) during young adulthood was the primary exposure variable and was measured as BMI at baseline (kg/m$\sp2)$ minus BMI at age 20 (kg/m$\sp2).$ Proportional hazards regression analysis was used to generate relative risks of CHD mortality by category of $\Delta$BMI and cigarette smoking status after adjustment for age, family history of CVD, major organ system disease, BMI at age 20, and number of cigarettes smoked per day. Adjustment was not performed for systolic blood pressure or total serum cholesterol as these were regarded as intervening variables. Vital status was known for all men on the 25th anniversary of their baseline examinations. 705 deaths (including 319 CHD deaths) occurred over 40,136 person-years of experience. $\Delta$BMI was positively associated with risk of CHD mortality in never-smokers, but not in ever-smokers (p for interaction = 0.067). For never-smokers with $\Delta$BMI of stable, low gain, moderate gain, and high gain, adjusted relative risks were 1.00, 1.62, 1.61, and 2.78, respectively (p for trend = 0.010). For ever-smokers, with $\Delta$BMI of stable, low gain, moderate gain, and high gain, adjusted relative risks were 1.00, 0.74, 1.07, and 1.06, respectively (p for trend = 0.422). These results support the research hypothesis that cigarette smoking modifies the association between weight gain and CHD mortality. Current estimates of the magnitude of effect of obesity and physical inactivity on risk of coronary mortality may have been seriously underestimated due to inadequate handling of cigarette smoking. ^

PREDICTIVE VARIABLES FOR WEIGHT CHANGE 2 YEARS FOLLOWING PARTICIPATION IN A WEIGHT LOSS INTERVENTION PROGRAM

A historical prospective study was designed to assess the man weight status of subjects who participated in a behavioral weight reduction program in 1983 and to determine whether there was an association between the dependent variable weight change and any of 31 independent variables after a 2 year follow-up period. Data was obtained by abstracting the subjects records and from a follow-up questionnaire administered 2 years following program participation. Five hundred nine subjects (386 females and 123 males) of 1460 subjects who participated in the program, completed and returned the questionnaire. Results showed that mean weight was significantly different (p < 0.001) between the measurement at baseline and after a 2 year follow-up period. The mean weight loss of the group was 5.8 pounds, 10.7 pounds for males and 4.2 pounds for females after a 2 year follow-up period. A total of 63.9% of the group, 69.9% of males and 61.9% of females were still below their initial weight after the 2 year follow-up period. Sixteen of the 31 variables assessed utilizing bivariate analyses were found to be significantly (p (LESSTHEQ) 0.05) associated with weight change after a 2 year follow-up period. These variables were then entered into a multivariate linear regression model. A total of 37.9% of the variance of the dependent variable, weight change, was accounted for by all 16 variables. Eight of these variables were found to be significantly (p (LESSTHEQ) 0.05) predictive of weight change in the stepwise multivariate process accounting for 37.1% of the variance. These variables included: Two baseline variables (percent over ideal body weight at enrollment and occupation) and six follow-up variables (feeling in control of eating habits, percent of body weight lost during treatment, frequency of weight measurement, physical activity, eating in response to emotions, and number of pounds of weight gain needed to resume a diet). It was concluded that a greater amount of emphasis should be placed on the six follow-up variables by clinicians involved in the treatment of obesity, and by the subjects themselves to enhance their chances of success at long-term weight loss. ^

Physical activity among breast and prostate cancer survivors: Barriers, facilitators and maintenance following the FRESH START trial

Research provides evidence of the positive health effects associated with regular physical activity participation in all populations. Activity may prove to be especially beneficial in those with chronic conditions such as cancer. However, the majority of cancer patients and survivors do not participate in the recommended amount of physical activity. The purpose of this dissertation was to identify factors associated with physical activity participation, describe how these factors change as result of a diet and exercise intervention, and to evaluate correlates of long term physical activity maintenance. ^ For this dissertation, I analyzed data from the FRESH START trial, a randomized, single-blind, phase II clinical trial focused on improving diet and physical activity among recently diagnosed breast and prostate cancer survivors. Analyses included both parametric and non-parametric statistical tests. Three separate studies were conducted, with sample sizes ranging from 400 to 486. ^ Common barriers to exercise, such as “no willpower,” “too busy,” and “I have pain,” were reported among breast and prostate cancer survivors; however, these barriers were not significantly associated with minutes of physical activity. Breast cancer survivors reported a greater number of total barriers to exercise as well as higher proportions reporting individual barriers, compared to prostate cancer survivors. Just less than half of participants reduced their total number of barriers to exercise from baseline to 1-year follow-up, and those who did reduce barriers reported greater increases in minutes of physical activity compared to those who reported no change in barriers to exercise. Participants in both the tailored and standardized intervention groups reported greater minutes of physical activity at 2-year follow-up compared to baseline. Overall, twelve percent of participants reached recommended levels of physical activity at both 1- and 2-year follow-up. Self-efficacy was positively associated with physical activity maintenance, and the number of total barriers to exercise was inversely associated with physical activity maintenance. ^ Results from this dissertation are novel and informative, and will help to guide future physical activity interventions among cancer survivors. Thoughtfully designed interventions may encourage greater participation in physical activity and ultimately improve overall quality of life in this population. ^

Fasting blood glucose and 8-year mortality in the hypertension detection follow-up program population

This study analyzed the relationship between fasting blood glucose (FBG) and 8-year mortality in the Hypertension Detection Follow-up Program (HDFP) population. Fasting blood glucose (FBG) was examined both as a continuous variable and by specified FBG strata: Normal (FBG 60–100 mg/dL), Impaired (FBG ≥100 and ≤125 mg/dL), and Diabetic (FBG>125 mg/dL or pre-existing diabetes) subgroups. The relationship between type 2 diabetes was examined with all-cause mortality. This thesis described and compared the characteristics of fasting blood glucose strata by recognized glucose cut-points; described the mortality rates in the various fasting blood glucose strata using Kaplan-Meier mortality curves, and compared the mortality risk of various strata using Cox Regression analysis. Overall, mortality was significantly greater among Referred Care (RC) participants compared to Stepped Care (SC) {HR = 1.17; 95% CI (1.052,1.309); p-value = 0.004}, as reported by the HDFP investigators in 1979. Compared with SC participants, the RC mortality rate was significantly higher for the Normal FBG group {HR = 1.18; 95% CI (1.029,1.363); p-value = 0.019} and the Impaired FBG group, {HR = 1.34; 95% CI (1.036,1.734); p-value = 0.026,}. However, for the diabetic group, 8-year mortality did not differ significantly between the RC and SC groups after adjusting for race, gender, age, smoking status among Diabetic individuals {HR = 1.03; 95% CI (0.816,1.303); p-value = 0.798}. This latter finding is possibly due to a lack of a treatment difference of hypertension among Diabetic participants in both RC and SC groups. The largest difference in mortality between RC and SC was in the Impaired subgroup, suggesting that hypertensive patients with FBG between 100 and 125 mg/dL would benefit from aggressive antihypertensive therapy.^

Tobacco use and related psychosocial risk factors among youth in urban India: Assessment of Project MYTRI follow-up surveys

Project MYTRI (Mobilizing Youth for Tobacco-Related Initiatives in India) was a large 2-year randomized school-based trial with a goal to reduce and prevent tobacco use among students in 6th and 8th grades in Delhi and Chennai in India (n=32 schools). Baseline analyses in 2004 showed that 6th grade students reported more tobacco use than 8 th grade students, opposite of what is typically observed in developed countries like the US. The present study aims to study differences in tobacco use and psychosocial risk factors between the 6th grade cohort and 8th grade cohort, in a compliant sub-sample of control students that were present at all 3 surveys from 2004-06. Both in 2004 and 2005, 6th grade cohort reported significantly greater prevalence of ever use of all tobacco products (cigarettes, bidis, chewing tobacco, any tobacco). These significant differences in ever use of any tobacco between cohorts were maintained by gender, city and socioeconomic status. The 6th grade cohort also reported significantly greater prevalence of current use of tobacco products (cigarettes, chewing tobacco, any tobacco) in 2004. Similar findings were observed for psychosocial risk factors for tobacco use, where the 6th grade cohort scored higher risk than 8th grade cohort on scales for intentions to smoke or chew tobacco and susceptibility to smoke or chew tobacco in 2004 and 2005, and for knowledge of health effects of tobacco in all three years.^ The evidence of early initiation of tobacco use in our 6th grade cohort in India indicates the need to target prevention programs and other tobacco control measures from a younger age in this setting. With increasing proportions of total deaths and lost DALYs in India being attributable to chronic diseases, addressing tobacco use among younger cohorts is even more critical. Increase in tobacco use among youth is a cause for concern with respect to future burden of chronic disease and tobacco-related mortality in many developing countries. Similarly, epidemiological studies that aim to predict future death and disease burden due to tobacco should address the early age at initiation and increasing prevalence rates among younger populations. ^

Timely follow-up of abnormal diagnostic imaging test results in an outpatient setting: are electronic medical records achieving their potential?

BACKGROUND: Given the fragmentation of outpatient care, timely follow-up of abnormal diagnostic imaging results remains a challenge. We hypothesized that an electronic medical record (EMR) that facilitates the transmission and availability of critical imaging results through either automated notification (alerting) or direct access to the primary report would eliminate this problem. METHODS: We studied critical imaging alert notifications in the outpatient setting of a tertiary care Department of Veterans Affairs facility from November 2007 to June 2008. Tracking software determined whether the alert was acknowledged (ie, health care practitioner/provider [HCP] opened the message for viewing) within 2 weeks of transmission; acknowledged alerts were considered read. We reviewed medical records and contacted HCPs to determine timely follow-up actions (eg, ordering a follow-up test or consultation) within 4 weeks of transmission. Multivariable logistic regression models accounting for clustering effect by HCPs analyzed predictors for 2 outcomes: lack of acknowledgment and lack of timely follow-up. RESULTS: Of 123 638 studies (including radiographs, computed tomographic scans, ultrasonograms, magnetic resonance images, and mammograms), 1196 images (0.97%) generated alerts; 217 (18.1%) of these were unacknowledged. Alerts had a higher risk of being unacknowledged when the ordering HCPs were trainees (odds ratio [OR], 5.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.86-10.89) and when dual-alert (>1 HCP alerted) as opposed to single-alert communication was used (OR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.22-3.36). Timely follow-up was lacking in 92 (7.7% of all alerts) and was similar for acknowledged and unacknowledged alerts (7.3% vs 9.7%; P = .22). Risk for lack of timely follow-up was higher with dual-alert communication (OR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.06-3.48) but lower when additional verbal communication was used by the radiologist (OR, 0.12; 95% CI, 0.04-0.38). Nearly all abnormal results lacking timely follow-up at 4 weeks were eventually found to have measurable clinical impact in terms of further diagnostic testing or treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Critical imaging results may not receive timely follow-up actions even when HCPs receive and read results in an advanced, integrated electronic medical record system. A multidisciplinary approach is needed to improve patient safety in this area.

Identification of genetic variation influencing apolipoprotein E levels: Follow-up of genome-wide linkage scans in the GENOA study

Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) plays a major role in the metabolism of high density and low density lipoproteins (HDL and LDL). Its common protein isoforms (E2, E3, E4) are risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD) and explain between 16 to 23% of the inter-individual variation in plasma apoE levels. Linkage analysis has been completed for plasma apoE levels in the GENOA study (Genetic Epidemiology Network of Atherosclerosis). After stratification of the population by lipoprotein levels and body mass index (BMI) to create more homogeneity with regard to biological context for apoE levels, Hispanic families showed significant linkage on chromosome 17q for two strata (LOD=2.93 at 104 cM for a low cholesterol group, LOD=3.04 at 111 cM for a low cholesterol, high HDLC group). Replication of 17q linkage was observed for apoB and apoE levels in the unstratified Hispanic and African-American populations, and for apoE levels in African-American families. Replication of this 17q linkage in different populations and strata provides strong support for the presence of gene(s) in this region with significant roles in the determination of inter-individual variation in plasma apoE levels. Through a positional and functional candidate gene approach, ten genes were identified in the 17q linked region, and 62 polymorphisms in these genes were genotyped in the GENOA families. Association analysis was performed with FBAT, GEE, and variance-component based tests followed by conditional linkage analysis. Association studies with partial coverage of TagSNPs in the gene coding for apolipoprotein H (APOH) were performed, and significant results were found for 2 SNPs (APOH_20951 and APOH_05407) in the Hispanic low cholesterol strata accounting for 3.49% of the inter-individual variation in plasma apoE levels. Among the other candidate genes, we identified a haplotype block in the ACE1 gene that contains two major haplotypes associated with apoE levels as well as total cholesterol, apoB and LDLC levels in the unstratified Hispanic population. Identifying genes responsible for the remaining 60% of inter-individual variation in plasma apoE level, will yield new insights into the understanding of genetic interactions involved in the lipid metabolism, and a more precise understanding of the risk factors leading to CAD. ^

Association between glycemic index and glycemic load and the risk of incident coronary heart disease among whites and African Americans with and without type 2 diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study

Several studies have examined the association between high glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) diets and the risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, most of these studies were conducted primarily on white populations. The primary aim of this study was to examine whether high GI and GL diets are associated with increased risk for developing CHD in whites and African Americans, non-diabetics and diabetics, and within stratifications of body mass index (BMI) and hypertension (HTN). Baseline and 17-year follow-up data from ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study was used. The study population (13,051) consisted of 74% whites, 26% African Americans, 89% non-diabetics, 11% diabetics, 43% male, 57% female aged 44 to 66 years at baseline. Data from the ARIC food frequency questionnaire at baseline were analyzed to provide GI and GL indices for each subject. Increases of 25 and 30 units for GI and GL respectively were used to describe relationships on incident CHD risk. Adjusted hazard ratios for propensity score with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to assess associations. During 17 years of follow-up (1987 to 2004), 1,683 cases of CHD was recorded. Glycemic index was associated with 2.12 fold (95% CI: 1.05, 4.30) increased incident CHD risk for all African Americans and GL was associated with 1.14 fold (95% CI: 1.04, 1.25) increased CHD risk for all whites. In addition, GL was also an important CHD risk factor for white non-diabetics (HR=1.59; 95% CI: 1.33, 1.90). Furthermore, within stratum of BMI 23.0 to 29.9 in non-diabetics, GI was associated with an increased hazard ratio of 11.99 (95% CI: 2.31, 62.18) for CHD in African Americans, and GL was associated with 1.23 fold (1.08, 1.39) increased CHD risk in whites. Body mass index modified the effect of GI and GL on CHD risk in all whites and white non-diabetics. For HTN, both systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure modified the effect on GI and GL on CHD risk in all whites and African Americans, white and African American non-diabetics, and white diabetics. Further studies should examine other factors that could influence the effects of GI and GL on CHD risk, including dietary factors, physical activity, and diet-gene interactions. ^

Follow-up care after a health fair screening in three Houston neighborhoods in 2008

Background. Each year thousands of people participate in mass health screenings for diabetes and hypertension, but little is known about whether or not those who receive higher than normal screening results obtain the recommended follow-up medical care, or what barriers they perceive to doing so. ^ Methods. Study participants were recruited from attendees at three health fairs in low-income neighborhoods in Houston, Texas Potential participants had higher than normal blood pressure (> 90/140 mgHg) or blood glucose readings (100 mm/dL fasting or 140 mm/dL random). Study participants were called at one, two, and three months and asked if they had obtained follow-up medical care; those who had not yet obtained follow-up care were asked to identify barriers. Using a modified Aday-Andersen model of health service access, the independent variables were individual and community characteristics and self-perceived need. The dependent variable was obtaining follow-up care, with barriers to care a secondary outcome. ^ Results. Eighty-two study participants completed the initial questionnaire and 59 participants completed the study protocol. Forty-eight participants (59% under an intent to treat analysis, 81% of those completing the study protocol) obtained follow-up care. Those who completed the initial questionnaire and who reported a regular source of care were significantly more likely to obtain follow-up care. For those who completed the study protocol the relationship between having a regular source of care and obtaining follow-up care approached but did not reach significance. For those who completed the initial questionnaire, self-described health status, when examined as a binary variable (good, very good, excellent, or poor, fair, not sure) was associated with obtaining follow-up care for those who rated their health as poor, fair, or not sure. While the group who completed the study protocol did not reach statistical significance, the same relationship between self-described health status of poor, fair, or not sure and obtaining follow-up care was present. The participants who completed the study protocol and described their blood pressure as OK or a little high were statistically more likely to get follow-up care than those who described it as high or very high. All those on oral medications for hypertension (12/12) and diabetes (4/4) who were told to obtain follow-up care did so; however, the small sample size allows this correlation to be of statistical significance only for those treating hypertension. ^ The variables significantly associated with obtaining follow-up care were having a regular source of care, self-described health status of poor, fair, or not sure, self-described blood pressure of OK or a little high, and taking medication for blood pressure. ^ At the follow-up telephone calls, 34 participants identified barriers to care; cost was a significant barrier reported by 16 participants, and 10 reported that they didn’t have time because they were working long hours after Hurricane Ike. ^ The study included the offer of access assistance: information about nearby safety-net providers, a visit to or information from the Health Information Center at their Neighborhood Center location, or information from Project Safety Net (a searchable web site for safety net providers). Access assistance was offered at the health fairs and then again at follow-up telephone calls to those who had not yet obtained follow-up care. Of the 48 participants who reported obtaining follow-up care, 26 said they had made use of the access assistance to do so. The use of access assistance was associated with being Hispanic, not having health insurance or a regular source of care, and speaking Spanish. It was also associated with being worried about blood glucose. ^ Conclusion. Access assistance, as a community enabling characteristic, may be useful in aiding low-income people in obtaining medical care. ^

Metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular mortality among participants of the hypertension detection and follow-up program

Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is a clustering of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors that includes obesity, dyslipidemia, hyperglycemia, and elevated blood pressure. Applying the criteria for MetS can serve as a clinically feasible tool for identifying patients at high risk for CV morbidity and mortality, particularly those who do not fall into traditional risk categories. The objective of this study was to examine the association between MetS and CV mortality among 10,940 American hypertensive adults, ages 30-69 years, participating in a large randomized controlled trial of hypertension treatment (HDFP 1973-1983). MetS was defined as the presence of hypertension and at least two of the following risk factors: obesity, dyslipidemia, or hyperglycemia. Of the 10,763 individuals with sufficient data available for analysis, 33.2% met criteria for MetS at baseline. The baseline prevalence of MetS was significantly higher among women (46%) than men (22%) and among non-blacks (37%) versus blacks (30%). All-cause and CV mortality was assessed for 10,763 individuals. Over a median follow-up of 7.8 years, 1,425 deaths were observed. Approximately 53% of these deaths were attributed to CV causes. Compared to individuals without MetS at baseline, those with MetS had higher rates of all-cause mortality (14.5% v. 12.6%) and CV mortality (8.2% versus 6.4%). The unadjusted risk of CV mortality among those with MetS was 1.31 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.52) times that for those without MetS at baseline. After multiple adjustment for traditional risk factors of age, race, gender, history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and smoking status, individuals with MetS, compared to those without MetS, were 1.42 (95% CI, 1.20-1.67) times more likely to die of CV causes. Of the individual components of MetS, hyperglycemia/diabetes conferred the strongest risk of CV mortality (OR 1.73; 95% CI, 1.39-2.15). Results of the present study suggest MetS defined as the presence of hypertension and 2 additional cardiometabolic risk factors (obesity, dyslipidemia, or hyperglycemia/diabetes) can be used with some success to predict CV mortality in middle-aged hypertensive adults. Ongoing and future prospective studies are vital to examine the association between MetS and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in select high-risk subpopulations, and to continue evaluating the public health impact of aggressive, targeted screening, prevention, and treatment efforts to prevent future cardiovascular disability and death.^

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SERUM CHOLESTEROL AND CANCER INCIDENCE IN THE POPULATION OF THE HYPERTENSION DETECTION AND FOLLOW-UP PROGRAM

The relationship between serum cholesterol and cancer incidence was investigated in the population of the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program (HDFP). The HDFP was a multi-center trial designed to test the effectiveness of a stepped program of medication in reducing mortality associated with hypertension. Over 10,000 participants, ages 30-69, were followed with clinic and home visits for a minimum of five years. Cancer incidence was ascertained from existing study documents, which included hospitalization records, autopsy reports and death certificates. During the five years of follow-up, 286 new cancer cases were documented. The distribution of sites and total number of cases were similar to those predicted using rates from the Third National Cancer Survey. A non-fasting baseline serum cholesterol level was available for most participants. Age, sex, and race specific five-year cancer incidence rates were computed for each cholesterol quartile. Rates were also computed by smoking status, education status, and percent ideal weight quartiles. In addition, these and other factors were investigated with the use of the multiple logistic model.^ For all cancers combined, a significant inverse relationship existed between baseline serum cholesterol levels and cancer incidence. Previously documented associations between smoking, education and cancer were also demonstrated but did not account for the relationship between serum cholesterol and cancer. The relationship was more evident in males than females but this was felt to represent the different distribution of occurrence of specific cancer sites in the two sexes. The inverse relationship existed for all specific sites investigated (except breast) although a level of statistical significance was reached only for prostate carcinoma. Analyses after exclusion of cases diagnosed during the first two years of follow-up still yielded an inverse relationship. Life table analysis indicated that competing risks during the period of follow-up did not account for the existence of an inverse relationship. It is concluded that a weak inverse relationship does exist between serum cholesterol for many but not all cancer sites. This relationship is not due to confounding by other known cancer risk factors, competing risks or persons entering the study with undiagnosed cancer. Not enough information is available at the present time to determine whether this relationship is causal and further research is suggested. ^

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEGREE OF BLOOD PRESSURE REDUCTION AND MORTALITY AMONG HYPERTENSIVES IN THE HYPERTENSION DETECTION AND FOLLOW-UP PROGRAM

The relationship between degree of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) reduction and mortality was examined among hypertensives, ages 30-69, in the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program (HDFP). The HDFP was a multi-center community-based trial, which followed 10,940 hypertensive participants for five years. One-year survival was required for inclusion in this investigation since the one-year annual visit was the first occasion where change in blood pressure could be measured on all participants. During the subsequent four years of follow-up on 10,052 participants, 568 deaths occurred. For levels of change in DBP and for categories of variables related to mortality, the crude mortality rate was calculated. Time-dependent life tables were also calculated so as to utilize available blood pressure data over time. In addition, the Cox life table regression model, extended to take into account both time-constant and time-dependent covariates, was used to examine the relationship change in blood pressure over time and mortality.^ The results of the time-dependent life table and time-dependent Cox life table regression analyses supported the existence of a quadratic function which modeled the relationship between DBP reduction and mortality, even after adjusting for other risk factors. The minimum mortality hazard ratio, based on a particular model, occurred at a DBP reduction of 22.6 mm Hg (standard error = 10.6) in the whole population and 8.5 mm Hg (standard error = 4.6) in the baseline DBP stratum 90-104. After this reduction, there was a small increase in the risk of death. There was not evidence of the quadratic function after fitting the same model using systolic blood pressure. Methodologic issues involved in studying a particular degree of blood pressure reduction were considered. The confidence interval around the change corresponding to the minimum hazard ratio was wide and the obtained blood pressure level should not be interpreted as a goal for treatment. Blood pressure reduction was attributed, not only to pharmacologic therapy, but also to regression to the mean, and to other unknown factors unrelated to treatment. Therefore, the surprising results of this study do not provide direct implications for treatment, but strongly suggest replication in other populations. ^

Application of the general linear model to assess the effect of missing data on bone marrow mononuclear cell therapy with infusion timing and follow-up MRI

With most clinical trials, missing data presents a statistical problem in evaluating a treatment's efficacy. There are many methods commonly used to assess missing data; however, these methods leave room for bias to enter the study. This thesis was a secondary analysis on data taken from TIME, a phase 2 randomized clinical trial conducted to evaluate the safety and effect of the administration timing of bone marrow mononuclear cells (BMMNC) for subjects with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).^ We evaluated the effect of missing data by comparing the variance inflation factor (VIF) of the effect of therapy between all subjects and only subjects with complete data. Through the general linear model, an unbiased solution was made for the VIF of the treatment's efficacy using the weighted least squares method to incorporate missing data. Two groups were identified from the TIME data: 1) all subjects and 2) subjects with complete data (baseline and follow-up measurements). After the general solution was found for the VIF, it was migrated Excel 2010 to evaluate data from TIME. The resulting numerical value from the two groups was compared to assess the effect of missing data.^ The VIF values from the TIME study were considerably less in the group with missing data. By design, we varied the correlation factor in order to evaluate the VIFs of both groups. As the correlation factor increased, the VIF values increased at a faster rate in the group with only complete data. Furthermore, while varying the correlation factor, the number of subjects with missing data was also varied to see how missing data affects the VIF. When subjects with only baseline data was increased, we saw a significant rate increase in VIF values in the group with only complete data while the group with missing data saw a steady and consistent increase in the VIF. The same was seen when we varied the group with follow-up only data. This essentially showed that the VIFs steadily increased when missing data is not ignored. When missing data is ignored as with our comparison group, the VIF values sharply increase as correlation increases.^