Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

Slope estimation in a parametric measurement error model: A simulation study

In regression analysis, covariate measurement error occurs in many applications. The error-prone covariates are often referred to as latent variables. In this proposed study, we extended the study of Chan et al. (2008) on recovering latent slope in a simple regression model to that in a multiple regression model. We presented an approach that applied the Monte Carlo method in the Bayesian framework to the parametric regression model with the measurement error in an explanatory variable. The proposed estimator applied the conditional expectation of latent slope given the observed outcome and surrogate variables in the multiple regression models. A simulation study was presented showing that the method produces estimator that is efficient in the multiple regression model, especially when the measurement error variance of surrogate variable is large.^

Community health workers: The critical link to sustainable, healthy societies in low-resource settings---A model for the Baylor Shoulder to Shoulder Foundation

Community health workers (CHWs) can serve as a bridge between healthcare providers and communities to positively impact social determinants of health and, thus, the overall health of the population. The potential to effect lasting change is particularly significant within resource-poor settings with limited access to formally trained health care providers such as the small, rural village of Santa Ana Intibucá, Honduras and surrounding areas—located on the geographically and politically isolated border of Honduras and El Salvador. The Baylor Shoulder to Shoulder Foundation (BSTS) works in conjunction with Santa Ana's volunteer health committee to bring a health brigade that has provided health care and public health projects to the area at least twice a year since 2001. They have also hired a full-time Honduran physician, a Honduran in-country administrative director, and built a clinic; yet, no community health worker program exists. This CHW program model is the response to a clear need for a CHW program within the area served by BSTS and presents a CHW program model specific to Santa Ana Intibucá and surrounding areas to be implemented by BSTS. Methods used to develop this model include reviewing the literature for recommendations from leading authorities as well as successfully implemented CHW programs in comparable regions. This information was incorporated into existing knowledge and materials currently being used in the area. Using the CHW model proposed here, each brigade, in conjunction with the communities served, can help develop new modules to respond to the specific health priorities of the region at that time, incorporating consistent modes of contact with the local physician and the CHWs to provide refresher courses, training in new topics of interest, and to be reminded of the importance of community health workers' role as the critical link to healthy societies. With cooperation, effort, and support, the brigade can continue to help integrate a sustainable CHW system in which communities may be able to maximize the care they receive while also learning to care for their own health and the future of their communities.^

ACCURACY OF THE BRCAPRO RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL IN MALES PRESENTING TO MD ANDERSON FOR BRCA TESTING

ACCURACY OF THE BRCAPRO RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL IN MALES PRESENTING TO MD ANDERSON FOR BRCA TESTING Publication No. _______ Carolyn A. Garby, B.S. Supervisory Professor: Banu Arun, M.D. Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (HBOC) syndrome is due to mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. Women with HBOC have high risks to develop breast and ovarian cancers. Males with HBOC are commonly overlooked because male breast cancer is rare and other male cancer risks such as prostate and pancreatic cancers are relatively low. BRCA genetic testing is indicated for men as it is currently estimated that 4-40% of male breast cancers result from a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation (Ottini, 2010) and management recommendations can be made based on genetic test results. Risk assessment models are available to provide the individualized likelihood to have a BRCA mutation. Only one study has been conducted to date to evaluate the accuracy of BRCAPro in males and was based on a cohort of Italian males and utilized an older version of BRCAPro. The objective of this study is to determine if BRCAPro5.1 is a valid risk assessment model for males who present to MD Anderson Cancer Center for BRCA genetic testing. BRCAPro has been previously validated for determining the probability of carrying a BRCA mutation, however has not been further examined particularly in males. The total cohort consisted of 152 males who had undergone BRCA genetic testing. The cohort was stratified by indication for genetic counseling. Indications included having a known familial BRCA mutation, having a personal diagnosis of a BRCA-related cancer, or having a family history suggestive of HBOC. Overall there were 22 (14.47%) BRCA1+ males and 25 (16.45%) BRCA2+ males. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for the cohort overall, for each particular indication, as well as for each cancer subtype. Our findings revealed that the BRCAPro5.1 model had perfect discriminating ability at a threshold of 56.2 for males with breast cancer, however only 2 (4.35%) of 46 were found to have BRCA2 mutations. These results are significantly lower than the high approximation (40%) reported in previous literature. BRCAPro does perform well in certain situations for men. Future investigation of male breast cancer and men at risk for BRCA mutations is necessary to provide a more accurate risk assessment.

ALLERGEN SENSITIZATION AND IMMUNOMODULATION BY SYNTHETIC LIGANDS, PUL-042, IN AN ALLERGEN-INDUCED ASTHMA MURINE MODEL

Allergen-induced asthma is the leading form of asthma and a chronic condition worldwide. Common allergens are known to contribute to the pathogenesis of this disease. Murine models of allergic asthma have mostly used an intraperitoneal route of sensitization (not airway) to study this disease. Allergic asthma pathophysiology involves the activation of TH2-specific cells, which triggers production of IgE antibodies, the up-regulation of TH2-specific cytokines (i.e. IL-4, IL-5, IL-9 and IL-13), increased airway eosinophilia, and mucin hypersecretion. Although there are several therapeutics currently treating asthmatic patients, some of these treatments can result in drug tolerance and may be linked to increased mortality. CpG oligodeoxynucleotides (ODNs) is a synthetic ligand that targets Toll-like Receptor (TLR) 9. It has been evaluated as a therapeutic agent for the treatment of cancer, infectious diseases, and for treating allergy and asthma. PUL-042 is also a synthetic TLR ligand and is composed of two agonists against TLR2/6 heterodimer and TLR9. Previous studies have evaluated PUL-042 for its ability to confer resistance against bacterial and viral lung infection. These findings, combined with studies performed using CpG ODNs, led to speculation that PUL-042 dampens the immune response in allergen-induced asthma. My thesis research investigated airway route sensitization and airway delivery of PUL-042 to evaluate its effects in reducing an allergen-induced asthma phenotype in a murine model. The results of this study contribute to the foundation for future investigations to evaluate the efficacy of PUL-042 as a novel therapy in allergic-asthma disease.

CHARACTERIZATION AND TREATMENT OF A NOVEL MOUSE MODEL OF TSC-ASSOCIATED AUTISM

Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is a dominant tumor suppressor disorder caused by mutations in either TSC1 or TSC2. The proteins of these genes form a complex to inhibit the mammalian target of rapamycin complex 1 (mTORC1), which controls protein translation and cell growth. TSC causes substantial neuropathology, often leading to autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) in up to 60% of patients. The anatomic and neurophysiologic links between these two disorders are not well understood. However, both disorders share cerebellar abnormalities. Therefore, we have characterized a novel mouse model in which the Tsc2 gene was selectively deleted from cerebellar Purkinje cells (Tsc2f/-;Cre). These mice exhibit progressive Purkinje cell degeneration. Since loss of Purkinje cells is a well-reported postmortem finding in patients with ASD, we conducted a series of behavior tests to assess if Tsc2f/-;Cre mice displayed autistic-like deficits. Using the three chambered social choice assay, we found that Tsc2f/-;Cre mice showed behavioral deficits, exhibiting no preference between a stranger mouse and an inanimate object, or between a novel and a familiar mouse. Tsc2f/-;Cre mice also demonstrated increased repetitive behavior as assessed with marble burying activity. Altogether, these results demonstrate that loss of Tsc2 in Purkinje cells in a haploinsufficient background lead to behavioral deficits that are characteristic of human autism. Therefore, Purkinje cells loss and/or dysfunction may be an important link between TSC and ASD. Additionally, we have examined some of the cellular mechanisms resulting from mutations in Tsc2 leading to Purkinje cell death. Loss of Tsc2 led to upregulation of mTORC1 and increased cell size. As a consequence of increased protein synthesis, several cellular stress pathways were upregulated. Principally, these included altered calcium signaling, oxidative stress, and ER stress. Likely as a consequence of ER stress, there was also upregulation of ubiquitin and autophagy. Excitingly, treatment with an mTORC1 inhibitor, rapamycin attenuated mTORC1 activity and prevented Purkinje cell death by reducing of calcium signaling, the ER stress response, and ubiquitin. Remarkably, rapamycin treatment also reversed the social behavior deficits, thus providing a promising potential therapy for TSC-associated ASD.

Assessing and applying evidence-based interventions at the community level in India as a model policy to reduce neonatal mortality rates in Nigeria

Background. The United Nations' Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 aims for a two-thirds reduction in death rates for children under the age of five by 2015. The greatest risk of death is in the first week of life, yet most of these deaths can be prevented by such simple interventions as improved hygiene, exclusive breastfeeding, and thermal care. The percentage of deaths in Nigeria that occur in the first month of life make up 28% of all deaths under five years, a statistic that has remained unchanged despite various child health policies. This paper will address the challenges of reducing the neonatal mortality rate in Nigeria by examining the literature regarding efficacy of home-based, newborn care interventions and policies that have been implemented successfully in India. ^ Methods. I compared similarities and differences between India and Nigeria using qualitative descriptions and available quantitative data of various health indicators. The analysis included identifying policy-related factors and community approaches contributing to India's newborn survival rates. Databases and reference lists of articles were searched for randomized controlled trials of community health worker interventions shown to reduce neonatal mortality rates. ^ Results. While it appears that Nigeria spends more money than India on health per capita ($136 vs. $132, respectively) and as percent GDP (5.8% vs. 4.2%, respectively), it still lags behind India in its neonatal, infant, and under five mortality rates (40 vs. 32 deaths/1000 live births, 88 vs. 48 deaths/1000 live births, 143 vs. 63 deaths/1000 live births, respectively). Both countries have comparably low numbers of healthcare providers. Unlike their counterparts in Nigeria, Indian community health workers receive training on how to deliver postnatal care in the home setting and are monetarily compensated. Gender-related power differences still play a role in the societal structure of both countries. A search of randomized controlled trials of home-based newborn care strategies yielded three relevant articles. Community health workers trained to educate mothers and provide a preventive package of interventions involving clean cord care, thermal care, breastfeeding promotion, and danger sign recognition during multiple postnatal visits in rural India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan reduced neonatal mortality rates by 54%, 34%, and 15–20%, respectively. ^ Conclusion. Access to advanced technology is not necessary to reduce neonatal mortality rates in resource-limited countries. To address the urgency of neonatal mortality, countries with weak health systems need to start at the community level and invest in cost-effective, evidence-based newborn care interventions that utilize available human resources. While more randomized controlled studies are urgently needed, the current available evidence of models of postnatal care provision demonstrates that home-based care and health education provided by community health workers can reduce neonatal mortality rates in the immediate future.^

Bayesian estimation of multilevel item response model with missing data

This study proposed a novel statistical method that modeled the multiple outcomes and missing data process jointly using item response theory. This method follows the "intent-to-treat" principle in clinical trials and accounts for the correlation between outcomes and missing data process. This method may provide a good solution to chronic mental disorder study. ^ The simulation study demonstrated that if the true model is the proposed model with moderate or strong correlation, ignoring the within correlation may lead to overestimate of the treatment effect and result in more type I error than specified level. Even if the within correlation is small, the performance of proposed model is as good as naïve response model. Thus, the proposed model is robust for different correlation settings if the data is generated by the proposed model.^

UNDERSTANDING INTERRUPTIONS IN HEALTHCARE: DEVELOPING A MODEL

Developing a Model Interruption is a known human factor that contributes to errors and catastrophic events in healthcare as well as other high-risk industries. The landmark Institute of Medicine (IOM) report, To Err is Human, brought attention to the significance of preventable errors in medicine and suggested that interruptions could be a contributing factor. Previous studies of interruptions in healthcare did not offer a conceptual model by which to study interruptions. As a result of the serious consequences of interruptions investigated in other high-risk industries, there is a need to develop a model to describe, understand, explain, and predict interruptions and their consequences in healthcare. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop a model grounded in the literature and to use the model to describe and explain interruptions in healthcare. Specifically, this model would be used to describe and explain interruptions occurring in a Level One Trauma Center. A trauma center was chosen because this environment is characterized as intense, unpredictable, and interrupt-driven. The first step in developing the model began with a review of the literature which revealed that the concept interruption did not have a consistent definition in either the healthcare or non-healthcare literature. Walker and Avant’s method of concept analysis was used to clarify and define the concept. The analysis led to the identification of five defining attributes which include (1) a human experience, (2) an intrusion of a secondary, unplanned, and unexpected task, (3) discontinuity, (4) externally or internally initiated, and (5) situated within a context. However, before an interruption could commence, five conditions known as antecedents must occur. For an interruption to take place (1) an intent to interrupt is formed by the initiator, (2) a physical signal must pass a threshold test of detection by the recipient, (3) the sensory system of the recipient is stimulated to respond to the initiator, (4) an interruption task is presented to recipient, and (5) the interruption task is either accepted or rejected by v the recipient. An interruption was determined to be quantifiable by (1) the frequency of occurrence of an interruption, (2) the number of times the primary task has been suspended to perform an interrupting task, (3) the length of time the primary task has been suspended, and (4) the frequency of returning to the primary task or not returning to the primary task. As a result of the concept analysis, a definition of an interruption was derived from the literature. An interruption is defined as a break in the performance of a human activity initiated internal or external to the recipient and occurring within the context of a setting or location. This break results in the suspension of the initial task by initiating the performance of an unplanned task with the assumption that the initial task will be resumed. The definition is inclusive of all the defining attributes of an interruption. This is a standard definition that can be used by the healthcare industry. From the definition, a visual model of an interruption was developed. The model was used to describe and explain the interruptions recorded for an instrumental case study of physicians and registered nurses (RNs) working in a Level One Trauma Center. Five physicians were observed for a total of 29 hours, 31 minutes. Eight registered nurses were observed for a total of 40 hours 9 minutes. Observations were made on either the 0700–1500 or the 1500-2300 shift using the shadowing technique. Observations were recorded in the field note format. The field notes were analyzed by a hybrid method of categorizing activities and interruptions. The method was developed by using both a deductive a priori classification framework and by the inductive process utilizing line-byline coding and constant comparison as stated in Grounded Theory. The following categories were identified as relative to this study: Intended Recipient - the person to be interrupted Unintended Recipient - not the intended recipient of an interruption; i.e., receiving a phone call that was incorrectly dialed Indirect Recipient – the incidental recipient of an interruption; i.e., talking with another, thereby suspending the original activity Recipient Blocked – the intended recipient does not accept the interruption Recipient Delayed – the intended recipient postpones an interruption Self-interruption – a person, independent of another person, suspends one activity to perform another; i.e., while walking, stops abruptly and talks to another person Distraction – briefly disengaging from a task Organizational Design – the physical layout of the workspace that causes a disruption in workflow Artifacts Not Available – supplies and equipment that are not available in the workspace causing a disruption in workflow Initiator – a person who initiates an interruption Interruption by Organizational Design and Artifacts Not Available were identified as two new categories of interruption. These categories had not previously been cited in the literature. Analysis of the observations indicated that physicians were found to perform slightly fewer activities per hour when compared to RNs. This variance may be attributed to differing roles and responsibilities. Physicians were found to have more activities interrupted when compared to RNs. However, RNs experienced more interruptions per hour. Other people were determined to be the most commonly used medium through which to deliver an interruption. Additional mediums used to deliver an interruption vii included the telephone, pager, and one’s self. Both physicians and RNs were observed to resume an original interrupted activity more often than not. In most interruptions, both physicians and RNs performed only one or two interrupting activities before returning to the original interrupted activity. In conclusion the model was found to explain all interruptions observed during the study. However, the model will require an even more comprehensive study in order to establish its predictive value.

Metropolitan Observatory for Street Children and Youngsters: A Chilean Experience of an Innovative Model

In Chile, street children and youngsters' situations have changed significantly over the last decades. The Metropolitan Observatory is an innovative organization that makes it possible to follow this velnerable group. The Observatory is becoming a pioneering actor in the subject, thanks to the participative work and agreed consensus of different institutions involved. The aim of this paper is to introduce the innovative cross-sectoral work done by the Metropolitan Observatory for street children and youth.

STIMULATION THROUGH TLR4 INCREASES FVIII INHIBITOR FORMATION IN A MOUSE MODEL OF HEMOPHILIA A

Hemophilia A is a clotting disorder caused by functional factor VIII (FVIII) deficiency. About 25% of patients treated with therapeutic recombinant FVIII develop antibodies (inhibitors) that render subsequent FVIII treatments ineffective. The immune mechanisms of inhibitor formation are not entirely understood, but circumstantial evidence indicates a role for increased inflammatory response, possibly via stimulation of Toll-like receptors (TLRs), at the time of FVIII immunization. I hypothesized that stimulation through TLR4 in conjunction with FVIII treatments would increase the formation of FVIII inhibitors. To test this hypothesis, FVIII K.O. mice were injected with recombinant human FVIII with or without concomitant doses of TLR4 agonist (lipopoysaccharide; LPS). The addition of LPS combined with FVIII significantly increased the rate and the production of anti-FVIII IgG antibodies and neutralizing FVIII inhibitors. In the spleen, repeated in vivo TLR4 stimulation with LPS increased the relative percentage of macrophages and dendritic cells (DCs) over the course of 4 injections. However, repeated in vivo FVIII stimulation significantly increased the density of TLR4 expressed on the surface of all spleen antigen presenting cells (APCs). Culture of splenocytes isolated from mice revealed that the combined stimulation of LPS and FVIII also synergistically increased early secretion of the inflammatory cytokines IL-6, TNF-α, and IL-10, which was not maintained throughout the course of the repeated injections. While cytokine secretion was relatively unchanged in response to FVIII re-stimulation in culture, LPS re-stimulation in culture induced increased and prolonged inflammatory cytokine secretion. Re-stimulation with both LPS and FVIII induced cytokine secretion similar to LPS stimulation alone. Interestingly, long term treatment of mice with LPS alone resulted in splenocytes that showed reduced response to FVIII in culture. Together these results indicated that creating a pro-inflammatory environment through the combined stimulation of chronic, low-dose LPS and FVIII changed not only the populations but also the repertoire of APCs in the spleen, triggering the increased production of FVIII inhibitors. These results suggested an anti-inflammatory regimen should be instituted for all hemophilia A patients to reduce or delay the formation of FVIII inhibitors during replacement therapy.

ROLE OF MIR-19A RELEASED BY INFLAMMATORY BREAST CANCER CELLS IN THE REGULATION OF DENDRITIC CELL FUNCTIONS: IN VITRO MODEL OF CROSSTALK IN THE TUMOR MICROENVIRONMENT OF INFLAMMATORY BREAST CANCER

Inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) is a rare but very aggressive form of locally advanced breast cancer (1-6% of total breast cancer patients in United States), with a 5-year overall survival rate of only 40.5%, compared with 85% of the non-IBC patients. So far, a unique molecular signature for IBC able to explain the dramatic differences in the tumor biology between IBC and non-IBC has not been identified. As immune cells in the tumor microenvironment plays an important role in regulating tumor progression, we hypothesized that tumor-associated dendritic cells (TADC) may be responsible for regulating the development of the aggressive characteristics of IBC. MiRNAs can be released into the extracellular space and mediate the intercellular communication by regulating target gene expression beyond their cells of origin. We hypothesized that miRNAs released by IBC cells can induce an increased activation status, secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines and migration ability of TADC. In an in vitro model of IBC tumor microenvironment, we found that the co-cultured of the IBC cell line SUM-149 with immature dendritic cells (iDCSUM-149) induced a higher degree of activation and maturation of iDCSUM-149 upon stimulation with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) compared with iDCs co-cultured with the non-IBC cell line SUM-159 (iDCSUM-159), resulting in: increased expression of the costimulatory and activation markers; higher production of pro-inflammatory cytokines (TNF-a, IL-6); and 3) higher migratory ability. These differences were due to the exosome-mediated transfer of miR-19a and miR-146a from SUM-149 and SUM-159, respectively, to iDCs, causing the downregulation of the miR-19a target genes PTEN, SOCS-1 and the miR-146a target genes IRAK1, TRAF6. PTEN, SOCS-1 and IRAK1, TRAF6 are important negative and positive regulator of cytokine- and TLR-mediated activation/maturation signaling pathway in DCs. Increased levels of IL-6 induced the upregulation of miR-19a synthesis in SUM-149 cells that was associated with the induction of CD44+CD24-ALDH1+ cancer stem cells (CSCs) with epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) characteristics. In conclusion, in IBC tumor microenvironment IL-6/miR-19a axis can represent a self-sustaining loop able to maintain a pro-inflammatory status of DCs, leading to the development of tumor cells with high metastatic potential (EMT CSCs) responsible of the poor prognosis in IBC patients.

Application of the general linear model to assess the effect of missing data on bone marrow mononuclear cell therapy with infusion timing and follow-up MRI

With most clinical trials, missing data presents a statistical problem in evaluating a treatment's efficacy. There are many methods commonly used to assess missing data; however, these methods leave room for bias to enter the study. This thesis was a secondary analysis on data taken from TIME, a phase 2 randomized clinical trial conducted to evaluate the safety and effect of the administration timing of bone marrow mononuclear cells (BMMNC) for subjects with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).^ We evaluated the effect of missing data by comparing the variance inflation factor (VIF) of the effect of therapy between all subjects and only subjects with complete data. Through the general linear model, an unbiased solution was made for the VIF of the treatment's efficacy using the weighted least squares method to incorporate missing data. Two groups were identified from the TIME data: 1) all subjects and 2) subjects with complete data (baseline and follow-up measurements). After the general solution was found for the VIF, it was migrated Excel 2010 to evaluate data from TIME. The resulting numerical value from the two groups was compared to assess the effect of missing data.^ The VIF values from the TIME study were considerably less in the group with missing data. By design, we varied the correlation factor in order to evaluate the VIFs of both groups. As the correlation factor increased, the VIF values increased at a faster rate in the group with only complete data. Furthermore, while varying the correlation factor, the number of subjects with missing data was also varied to see how missing data affects the VIF. When subjects with only baseline data was increased, we saw a significant rate increase in VIF values in the group with only complete data while the group with missing data saw a steady and consistent increase in the VIF. The same was seen when we varied the group with follow-up only data. This essentially showed that the VIFs steadily increased when missing data is not ignored. When missing data is ignored as with our comparison group, the VIF values sharply increase as correlation increases.^

STUDYING AGGREGATE FORMATION BY AMYOTROPHIC LATERAL SCLEROSIS-ASSOCIATED MUTANT SOD1 PROTEIN IN DROSOPHILA MODEL

A common pathological hallmark of most neurodegenerative disorders is the presence of protein aggregates in the brain. Understanding the regulation of aggregate formation is thus important for elucidating disease pathogenic mechanisms and finding effective preventive avenues and cures. Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease, is a selective neurodegenerative disorder predominantly affecting motor neurons. The majority of ALS cases are sporadic, however, mutations in superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1) are responsible for about 20% of familial ALS (fALS). Mutated SOD1 proteins are prone to misfold and form protein aggregates, thus representing a good candidate for studying aggregate formation. The long-term goal of this project is to identify regulators of aggregate formation by mutant SOD1 and other ALS-associated disease proteins. The specific aim of this thesis project is to assess the possibility of using the well-established Drosophila model system to study aggregation by human SOD1 (hSOD1) mutants. To this end, using wild type and the three mutant hSOD1 (A4V, G85R and G93A) most commonly found among fALS, I have generated 16 different SOD1 constructs containing either eGFP or mCherry in-frame fluorescent reporters, established and tested both cell- and animal-based Drosophila hSOD1 models. The experimental strategy allows for clear visualization of ectopic hSOD1 expression as well as versatile co-expression schemes to fully investigate protein aggregation specifically by mutant hSOD1. I have performed pilot cell-transfection experiments and verified induced expression of hSOD1 proteins. Using several tissue- or cell type-specific Gal4 lines, I have confirmed the proper expression of hSOD1 from established transgenic fly lines. Interestingly, in both Drosophila S2 cells and different fly tissues including the eye and motor neurons, robust aggregate formation by either wild type or mutant hSOD1 proteins was not observed. These preliminary observations suggest that Drosophila might not be a good experimental organism to study aggregation and toxicity of mutant hSOD1 protein. Nevertheless this preliminary conclusion implies the potential existence of a potent protective mechanism against mutant hSOD1 aggregation and toxicity in Drosophila. Thus, results from my SOD1-ALS project in Drosophila will help future studies on how to best employ this classic model organism to study ALS and other human brain degenerative diseases.

Evaluation of PRESAGE® dosimeters for brachytherapy sources and the 3D dosimetry and characterization of the new AgX100 125I seed model

With continuous new improvements in brachytherapy source designs and techniques, method of 3D dosimetry for treatment dose verifications would better ensure accurate patient radiotherapy treatment. This study was aimed to first evaluate the 3D dose distributions of the low-dose rate (LDR) Amersham 6711 OncoseedTM using PRESAGE® dosimeters to establish PRESAGE® as a suitable brachytherapy dosimeter. The new AgX100 125I seed model (Theragenics Corporation) was then characterized using PRESAGE® following the TG-43 protocol. PRESAGE® dosimeters are solid, polyurethane-based, 3D dosimeters doped with radiochromic leuco dyes that produce a linear optical density response to radiation dose. For this project, the radiochromic response in PRESAGE® was captured using optical-CT scanning (632 nm) and the final 3D dose matrix was reconstructed using the MATLAB software. An Amersham 6711 seed with an air-kerma strength of approximately 9 U was used to irradiate two dosimeters to 2 Gy and 11 Gy at 1 cm to evaluate dose rates in the r=1 cm to r=5 cm region. The dosimetry parameters were compared to the values published in the updated AAPM Report No. 51 (TG-43U1). An AgX100 seed with an air-kerma strength of about 6 U was used to irradiate two dosimeters to 3.6 Gy and 12.5 Gy at 1 cm. The dosimetry parameters for the AgX100 were compared to the values measured from previous Monte-Carlo and experimental studies. In general, the measured dose rate constant, anisotropy function, and radial dose function for the Amersham 6711 showed agreements better than 5% compared to consensus values in the r=1 to r=3 cm region. The dose rates and radial dose functions measured for the AgX100 agreed with the MCNPX and TLD-measured values within 3% in the r=1 to r=3 cm region. The measured anisotropy function in PRESAGE® showed relative differences of up to 9% with the MCNPX calculated values. It was determined that post-irradiation optical density change over several days was non-linear in different dose regions, and therefore the dose values in the r=4 to r=5 cm regions had higher uncertainty due to this effect. This study demonstrated that within the radial distance of 3 cm, brachytherapy dosimetry in PRESAGE® can be accurate within 5% as long as irradiation times are within 48 hours.