A model of factors determining levels of public support for health care policy in the United States

Public preferences for policy are formed in a little-understood process that is not adequately described by traditional economic theory of choice. In this paper I suggest that U.S. aggregate support for health reform can be modeled as tradeoffs among a small number of behavioral values and the stage of policy development. The theory underlying the model is based on Samuelson, et al.'s (1986) work and Wilke's (1991) elaboration of it as the Greed/Efficiency/Fairness (GEF) hypothesis of motivation in the management of resource dilemmas, and behavioral economics informed by Kahneman and Thaler's prospect theory. ^ The model developed in this paper employs ordered probit econometric techniques applied to data derived from U.S. polls taken from 1990 to mid-2003 that measured support for health reform proposals. Outcome data are four-tiered Likert counts; independent variables are dummies representing the presence or absence of operationalizations of each behavioral variable, along with an integer representing policy process stage. Marginal effects of each independent variable predict how support levels change on triggering that variable. Model estimation results indicate a vanishingly small likelihood that all coefficients are zero and all variables have signs expected from model theory. ^ Three hypotheses were tested: support will drain from health reform policy as it becomes increasingly well-articulated and approaches enactment; reforms appealing to fairness through universal health coverage will enjoy a higher degree of support than those targeted more narrowly; health reforms calling for government operation of the health finance system will achieve lower support than those that do not. Model results support the first and last hypotheses. Contrary to expectations, universal health care proposals did not provide incremental support beyond those targeted to “deserving” populations—children, elderly, working families. In addition, loss of autonomy (e.g. restrictions on choice of care giver) is found to be the “third rail” of health reform with significantly-reduced support. When applied to a hypothetical health reform in which an employer-mandated Medical Savings Account policy is the centerpiece, the model predicts support that may be insufficient to enactment. These results indicate that the method developed in the paper may prove valuable to health policy designers. ^

Racial disparities in patient survival after liver transplantation in the United States

Background. Racial disparities in healthcare span such areas as access, outcomes after procedures, and patient satisfaction. Previous work suggested that minorities experience less healthcare and worse survival rates. In adult orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) mixed results have been reported, with some showing African-American recipients having poor survival compared to Caucasians, and others finding no such discrepancy. ^ Purpose. This study’s purpose was to analyze the most recent United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) data, both before and after the implementation of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)/Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease (PELD) scoring system, to determine if minority racial groups still experience poor outcomes after OLT. ^ Methods. The UNOS dataset for 1992-2001 (Era I) and 2002-2007 (Era II) was used. Patient survival rates for each Era and for adult and pediatric recipients were analyzed with adjustment. A separate multivariate analysis was performed on African-American adult patients in Era II in order to identify unique predictors for poor patient survival. ^ Results. The overall study included 66,118 OLT recipients. The majority were Caucasian (78%), followed by Hispanics (13%) and African-Americans (9%). Hispanic and African-American adults were more likely to be female, have Hepatitis C, to be in the intensive care unit (ICU) or ventilated at time of OLT, to have a MELD score ≥23, to have a lower education level, and to have public insurance when compared to Caucasian adults (all p-values < 0.05). Hispanic and African-American pediatric recipients were more likely have public insurance and less likely to receive a living donor OLT than were Caucasian pediatric OLT recipients (p <0.05). There was no difference in the likelihood of having a PELD score ≥21 among racial groups (p >0.40). African-American adults in Era I and Era II had worse patient survival rates than both Caucasians and Hispanic (pair-wise p-values <0.05). This same disparity was seen for pediatric recipients in Era I, but not in Era II. Multivariate analysis of African-American recipients revealed no unique predictors of patient death. ^ Conclusions. African-American race is still a predictor of poor outcome after adult OLT, even after adjustment for multiple clinical, demographic, and liver disease severity variables. Although African-American and Hispanic subgroups share many characteristics previously thought to increase risk of post-OLT death, only African-American patients have poor survival rates when compared to Caucasians. ^

Use of pneumococcal vaccine in people with chronic disease in United States

Objective. The risk of complications and deaths related to pneumococcal infections is high among high risk population (i.e. those with chronic diseases such as diabetes or asthma), despite current immunization recommendations. The aim of this study is to evaluate the use of pneumonia vaccine in adults with and without diabetes or asthma by year of age and whether immunization practices conform to policy recommendations. ^ Methods. Data were drawn from 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Study. Age specific estimated counts and proportions of pneumonia vaccination status were computed. The association of socio-demographic factors with vaccination status was estimated from multiple logistic regression and results were presented for adults (18-64yrs) and elderly (65 or older). ^ Results. Overall 12.3% of the adults and 61.5% of elderly reported ever received pneumonia vaccine. 66.8% of diabetics and 72.6% of asthmatics received the vaccine among elderly. 33.4% of diabetics and 21.6% of asthmatics received the vaccine among adults. These numbers are far away from Healthy people 2010 objective coverage rates of 90% for elderly and 60% for high risk adults. Though diabetes was one of the recommendations for the pneumonia vaccine still the status was less than 70% even at older ages. Although asthma was not an indication for pneumonia vaccine, asthmatics still achieved 50% level by an early age of 60 and reached up to 80% at as early as 75 years. In those having both asthma and diabetes, although the curve reaches to 50% level at a very early age of 40yrs, it is not stable until the age of 55 and percentages reached to as high as 90% in older ages. Odds of receiving pneumonia vaccine were high in individuals with diabetes or asthma in both the age groups. But the odds were stronger for diabetics in adults compared to those in the elderly [2.24 CI (2.08-2.42) and 1.32 CI (1.18-1.47)]. The odds were slightly higher in adults than in elderly for asthmatics [1.92 CI (1.80-2.04) and 1.73 CI (1.50-2.00)].The likelihood of vaccination also differed by gender, ethnicity, marital status, income category, having a health insurance, current employment, physician visit in last year, reporting of good to excellent health and flu vaccine status. ^ Conclusion. There is a very high proportion of high risk adults and elderly that remain unvaccinated. Given the proven efficacy and safety of vaccine there is a need for interventions targeting the barriers for under-vaccination with more emphasis on physician knowledge and practice as well as the recipient attitudes.^

Targeted immunization to protect infants against pertussis in the United States

Pertussis is an infectious disease caused by the bacteria Bordetella pertussis, and is associated with a serious respiratory infection, a prolonged cough, and can require hospitalization. A vaccine for adolescents and adults has been available since 2005. This paper examines one recommended immunization strategy to prevent pertussis among infants, called “cocooning.” The strategy focuses on creating immunity among adult caregivers so they serve as a protective cocoon to the newborns, who are too young to be vaccinated. This paper looks at relevant studies summarizing implementation of cocooning strategies and addresses the question – Does the research literature support the view of using cocooning as an effective strategy to prevent pertussis in infants? After exclusions, 8 studies remained for synthesis. The evidence shows that cocooning is complex strategy and the evidence is mixed when it comes to ensuring an increase in immunization of caregivers. ^

A survey of statural changes with age in the adult population of the United States

A study of the patterns of height loss with age in the Anglo, black, and Mexican-American populations of the United States has been undertaken. The study was based on data gathered by the United States Public Health Service in the Second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Estimates of height loss were obtained by subtracting present stature from a calculated maximum attained height derived from sex- and race/ethnic-specific regression equations relating stature to subischial length. Anglo women have greater height losses than Anglo, black, or Mexican-American males, and black or Mexican-American females. Between 24 and 74 years of age, Anglo women average 3.8 cm. loss in stature. The black populations lose less height than Anglos or Mexican-Americans. Mexican-Americans lose less height than Anglos from 24 to 54 years and then have a greatly increased height loss so that by age 74 their total height loss is the same as Anglos. Standing height, sitting height, body mass index, and the Poverty Index were found to be negatively correlated with height loss. Age was positively correlated to height loss. The most important determinants of the magnitude of height loss with age were sex and ethnicity. ^

Dengue transmission risk maps of the continental United States

Dengue fever is a strictly human and non-human primate disease characterized by a high fever, thrombocytopenia, retro-orbital pain, and severe joint and muscle pain. Over 40% of the world population is at risk. Recent re-emergence of dengue outbreaks in Texas and Florida following the re-introduction of competent Aedes mosquito vectors in the United States have raised growing concerns about the potential for increased occurrences of dengue fever outbreaks throughout the southern United States. Current deficiencies in vector control, active surveillance and awareness among medical practitioners may contribute to a delay in recognizing and controlling a dengue virus outbreak. Previous studies have shown links between low-income census tracts, high population density, and dengue fever within the United States. Areas of low-income and high population density that correlate with the distribution of Aedes mosquitoes result in higher potential for outbreaks. In this retrospective ecologic study, nine maps were generated to model U.S. census tracts’ potential to sustain dengue virus transmission if the virus was introduced into the area. Variables in the model included presence of a competent vector in the county and census tract percent poverty and population density. Thirty states, 1,188 counties, and 34,705 census tracts were included in the analysis. Among counties with Aedes mosquito infestation, the census tracts were ranked high, medium, and low risk potential for sustained transmission of the virus. High risk census tracts were identified as areas having the vector, ≥20% poverty, and ≥500 persons per square mile. Census tracts with either ≥20% poverty or ≥500 persons per square mile and have the vector present are considered moderate risk. Census tracts that have the vector present but have <20% poverty and <500 persons per square mile are considered low risk. Furthermore, counties were characterized as moderate risk if 50% or more of the census tracts in that county were rated high or moderate risk, and high risk if 25% or greater were rated high risk. Extreme risk counties, which were primarily concentrated in Texas and Mississippi, were considered having 50% or greater of the census tracts ranked as high risk. Mapping of geographic areas with potential to sustain dengue virus transmission will support surveillance efforts and assist medical personnel in recognizing potential cases. ^

Risk factors for surgical site infections among patients undergoing major colon surgery in the United States 2007-2009

Background: Surgical site infections (SSIs) after abdominal surgeries account for approximately 26% of all reported SSIs. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines 3 types of SSIs: superficial incisional, deep incisional, and organ/space. Preventing SSIs has become a national focus. This dissertation assesses several associations with the individual types of SSI in patients that have undergone colon surgery. ^ Methods: Data for this dissertation was obtained from the American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP); major colon surgeries were identified in the database that occurred between the time period of 2007 and 2009. NSQIP data includes more than 50 preoperative and 30 intraoperative factors; 40 collected postoperative occurrences are based on a follow-up period of 30 days from surgery. Initially, four individual logistic regressions were modeled to compare the associations between risk factors and each of the SSI groups: superficial, deep, organ/space and a composite of any single SSI. A second analysis used polytomous regression to assess simultaneously the associations between risk factors and the different types of SSIs, as well as, formally test the different effect estimates of 13 common risk factors for SSIs. The final analysis explored the association between venous thromboembolism (VTEs) and the different types of SSIs and risk factors. ^ Results: A total of 59,365 colon surgeries were included in the study. Overall, 13% of colon cases developed a single type of SSI; 8% of these were superficial SSIs, 1.4% was deep SSIs, and 3.8% were organ/space SSIs. The first article identifies the unique set of risk factors associated with each of the 4 SSI models. Distinct risk factors for superficial SSIs included factors, such as alcohol, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dyspnea and diabetes. Organ/space SSIs were uniquely associated with disseminated cancer, preoperative dialysis, preoperative radiation treatment, bleeding disorder and prior surgery. Risk factors that were significant in all models had different effect estimates. The second article assesses 13 common SSI risk factors simultaneously across the 3 different types of SSIs using polytomous regression. Then each risk factor was formally tested for the effect heterogeneity exhibited. If the test was significant the final model would allow for the effect estimations for that risk factor to vary across each type of SSI; if the test was not significant, the effect estimate would remain constant across the types of SSIs using the aggregate SSI value. The third article explored the relationship of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and the individual types of SSIs and risk factors. The overall incidence of VTEs after the 59,365 colon cases was 2.4%. All 3 types of SSIs and several risk factors were independently associated with the development of VTEs. ^ Conclusions: Risk factors associated with each type of SSI were different in patients that have undergone colon surgery. Each model had a unique cluster of risk factors. Several risk factors, including increased BMI, duration of surgery, wound class, and laparoscopic approach, were significant across all 4 models but no statistical inferences can be made about their different effect estimates. These results suggest that aggregating SSIs may misattribute and hide true associations with risk factors. Using polytomous regression to assess multiple risk factors with the multiple types of SSI, this study was able to identify several risk factors that had significant effect heterogeneity across the 3 types of SSI challenging the use of aggregate SSI outcomes. The third article recognizes the strong association between VTEs and the 3 types of SSIs. Clinicians understand the difference between superficial, deep and organ/space SSIs. Our results indicate that they should be considered individually in future studies.^