A comparison of techniques for forecasting utilization of Veterans Affairs hospitals

This study demonstrated that accurate, short-term forecasts of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital utilization can be made using the Patient Treatment File (PTF), the inpatient discharge database of the VA. Accurate, short-term forecasts of two years or less can reduce required inventory levels, improve allocation of resources, and are essential for better financial management. These are all necessary achievements in an era of cost-containment.^ Six years of non-psychiatric discharge records were extracted from the PTF and used to calculate four indicators of VA hospital utilization: average length of stay, discharge rate, multi-stay rate (a measure of readmissions) and days of care provided. National and regional levels of these indicators were described and compared for fiscal year 1984 (FY84) to FY89 inclusive.^ Using the observed levels of utilization for the 48 months between FY84 and FY87, five techniques were used to forecast monthly levels of utilization for FY88 and FY89. Forecasts were compared to the observed levels of utilization for these years. Monthly forecasts were also produced for FY90 and FY91.^ Forecasts for days of care provided were not produced. Current inpatients with very long lengths of stay contribute a substantial amount of this indicator and it cannot be accurately calculated.^ During the six year period between FY84 and FY89, average length of stay declined substantially, nationally and regionally. The discharge rate was relatively stable, while the multi-stay rate increased slightly during this period. FY90 and FY91 forecasts show a continued decline in the average length of stay, while the discharge rate is forecast to decline slightly and the multi-stay rate is forecast to increase very slightly.^ Over a 24 month ahead period, all three indicators were forecast within a 10 percent average monthly error. The 12-month ahead forecast errors were slightly lower. Average length of stay was less easily forecast, while the multi-stay rate was the easiest indicator to forecast.^ No single technique performed significantly better as determined by the Mean Absolute Percent Error, a standard measure of error. However, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models performed well overall and are recommended for short-term forecasting of VA hospital utilization. ^

Democracy in the healthcare workplace: A critical perspective

A review of existing literature revealed at least two distinct theoretical perspectives or schools of thought which are troubled by problems of the lack of participation in the workplace: Jurgen Habermas' ideal of communicative rationality (1984; 1987); and the field of workplace democracy. Whereas Habermas' ideal of communicative rationality establishes communication as necessary to attain a democratic workplace, the ideal of workplace democracy focuses on a participatory ideal in which conditions of open participation must be fulfilled in order to attain a democratic workplace. This study compared the strengths and weaknesses of the conditions proposed by Habermas with the strengths and weaknesses of the conditions selected to represent the workplace democracy ideal. Two incidents were selected for analysis which occurred within a period of one year within one large healthcare organization. The author was present as a participant-observer to assess these incidents. Each of the conditions for the ideal of communicative rationality and for the workplace democracy ideal was systematically applied to both incidents selected for analysis. The results of the analysis suggested that application of Habermas' theory provided more insight into potential distortions in communication than did the conditions selected to represent workplace democracy. Although the conditions of both models were frequently complementary and even overlapping at times, application of each theory to the same incident produced distinctly different results. ^

A COMPARISON OF COUNTY HOSPITAL UTILIZATION BEFORE AND AFTER INTERVENTION BY THE HOSPITAL'S ALCOHOLISM SERVICES PROGRAM

This study examines the reduction in hospital utilization of 393 public hospital patients who were referred to the hospital's alcoholism screening program for intervention. The 393 patients were the total patient population of the alcoholism screening program for the period of September through December, 1982. Medical records of these patients were investigated to assess the total number of hospital days six months before and six months after intervention. The findings support the hypothesis of decreased utilization. The total number of hospital days for 393 patients before intervention of the alcoholism program was 3,458, with a mean length of stay of 8.80 days. The total number of hospital days after intervention was 458 days, with a mean length of stay of 6.50 days. The average individual difference (decrease) was 7.63 days for one year. From a total of 393 patients counseled by the alcoholism program, 106 (27%) went to treatment for their alcoholism. Other aims were to examine the referral sources (physicians, nurses, social workers and the MAST); study the impact of familial history of alcoholism on referrals, and explore the MAST scores of patients successfully referred. Implications of the study are that it would benefit the public hospital, with their disproportionate numbers of alcoholics, to intervene in the behavioral patterns of alcoholism. Such intervention would be a factor in reducing the overall hospitalization of the alcoholic. ^

MEDICAL CARE UTILIZATION IN TIME AMONG ELDERLY MEDICARE ENROLLEES IN AN HMO

Investigation into the medical care utilization of elderly Medicare enrollees in an HMO (Kaiser - Portland, Oregon): The specific research topics are: (1) The utilization of medical care by selected determinants such as: place of service, type of service, type of appointment, physician status, physician specialty and number of associated morbidities. (2) The attended prevalence of 3 chronic diseases: hypertension, diabetes and arthritis in addition to pneumonias as an example of acute diseases. The selection of these examples was based on their importance in morbidity/or mortality results among the elderly. The share of these diseases in outpatient and inpatient contacts was examined as an example of the relation between morbidity and medical care utilization. (3) The tendency of individual utilization patterns to persist in subsequent time periods. The concept of contagion or proneness was studied in a period of 2 years. Fitting the negative binomial and the Poisson distributions was applied to the utilization in the 2nd year conditional on that in the 1st year as regards outpatient and inpatient contacts.^ The present research is based on a longitudinal study of 20% random sample of elderly Medicare enrollees. The sample size is 1683 individuals during the period from August 1980-December 1982.^ The results of the research were: (1) The distribution of contacts by selected determinants did not reveal a consistent pattern between sexes and age groups. (2) The attended prevalence of hypertension and arthritis showed excess prevalence among females. For diabetes and pneumonias no female excess was noticed. Consistent increased prevalence with increasing age was not detected.^ There were important findings pertaining to the relatively big share of the combined 3 chronic diseases in utilization. They accounted for 20% of male outpatient contacts vs. 25% of female outpatients. For inpatient contacts, they consumed 20% in case of males vs. 24% in case of females. (3) Finding that the negative binomial distribution fit the utilization experience supported the research hypothesis concerning the concept of contagion in utilization. This important finding can be helpful in estimating liability functions needed for forecasting future utilization according to previous experience. Such information has its relevance to organization, administration and planning for medical care in general. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.) ^

UTILIZATION OF EVALUATION RESULTS

The issue over utilization of evaluation results has been receiving increasing attention lately. However, a continuing problem has been the lack of knowledge of the specific determinants of the utilization of evaluation results, the extent that these results are used, and the absence in the literature of empirical investigations of those determinants. The purposes of the current study were to examine the patterns of utilization of the recommendations made to an organization following an extensive evaluation, and to quantitatively examine some determinants of that utilization. During the course of the ten-month study, a number of important points regarding evaluation studies, and the utilization of their results were identified. Primary among these was the fact that a definition of utilization that requires adoption of recommendations is limited. Tremendous amounts of organizational activity may accrue from the results of an evaluation regardless of whether the results are adopted. In addition, none of the characteristics of the recommendations that were examined proved to be significant predictors of the extent of their utilization other than whether adoption was considered an authority decision or the results of staff concensus. ^

The role and impact of transitional care utilization in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND Although one out of every five gastrointestinal cancer patients needs transitional care (home-based skilled care or placement in skilled nursing or rehabilitation facilities) following treatment, few studies have examined outcomes in this population compared to patients who return home without assistance. This study has two primary goals: 1. To evaluate long-term cancer-specific outcomes in colorectal cancer patients utilizing transitional care compared to those that return home without assistance following therapy 2. To compare results using standard regression techniques and propensity scores. ^ METHODS Patients undergoing curative surgery for colorectal adenocarcinoma will be identified using data from a tertiary care Veterans Administration hospital. Survival and recurrence will then be determined from VA records and the Social Security Death Index. ^ The association between transitional care utilization and overall and disease-free survival will be evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression to adjust for confounding factors. Predictors of transitional care utilization will be assessed using multiple logistic regression to generate a propensity score which will also be used to assess differences in survival based on transitional care use. ^ POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE If transitional care utilization is associated with worse survival and recurrence following therapy then it will be important to subsequently assess the mechanism in order to target interventions to improve outcomes. If there is no difference in cancer-specific outcomes, then this project can potentially highlight benefits of supportive therapy following colorectal cancer resection.^

Prevalence of HIV risk-related behaviors among undocumented Central American immigrant women in Houston, Texas, 2010

The primary aim of this dissertation research is to provide epidemiological data on HIV risk-related behaviors among undocumented Central American immigrant women living in Houston, Texas. Between February and May 2010, we used respondent driven sampling (RDS) to recruit 230 Guatemalan, Honduran, and El Salvadoran women, ages 18 to 50 years, living in Houston without a valid United States visa or residency papers. RDS is a probability-based sampling method that utilizes social networks to access members of hidden populations that lack a sampling frame. Participants completed an interview regarding their demographics, access to and utilization of healthcare services, HIV testing, and sexual behaviors. Data from this study were used 1) to describe the prevalence of sexual HIV risk-related behaviors among undocumented Central American immigrant women, comparing those who recently immigrated to the U.S. (within the past five years) to those with more established residency (of over five years); 2) to describe the prevalence of lifetime HIV testing and evaluate its associated factors in this target population; and 3) to describe the effectiveness of RDS to access members of this target population. ^ As described in Paper 1, there was a generally low prevalence of individual HIV risk-related behaviors (i.e., multiple, concurrent, convenience, and casual sexual partnerships) among the undocumented Central American immigrant women in this study. However, there was evidence of HIV risk due to unprotected sex with male partners who have concurrent sexual partnerships. We identified recent immigrants as the subpopulation at greatest risk, as they were significantly more likely than established immigrants to have multiple and/or concurrent sexual partners. As described in Paper 2, the lifetime prevalence of HIV testing was almost 70%. After adjusting for age, number of years living in the U.S., income security, and resource barriers, lifetime HIV testing was significantly associated with being from Honduras, having more than a sixth grade education, having a regular healthcare provider, and having knowledge of available healthcare resources. Finally, as described in Paper 3, RDS was an effective method for obtaining a diverse sample of Central American immigrant women in Houston. ^ This project is the first to use RDS to conduct an HIV behavioral survey among undocumented Central American immigrant women. Our results will inform the design of future research studies and the implementation of HIV prevention activities among undocumented Central American immigrants in the U.S.^

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Utilization of BRCA Testing Among Obstetricians and Gynecologists

Hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) is an inherited cancer syndrome that is associated with mutations in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. Carriers of BRCA mutations, both men and women, are at an increased risk for developing certain cancers. Carriers are most notably at an increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancers; however an increased risk for prostate cancer, melanoma, and pancreatic cancers has also been associated with these mutations. In 2009 the American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) released a practice bulletin stating that evaluating a patient’s risk for HBOC should be a routine part of obstetric and gynecologic practice. A survey was created and completed by 83 obstetricians and gynecologists in the greater Houston, TX area. The survey consisted of four sections designed to capture demographic information, attitudes towards HBOC and BRCA testing, utilization of BRCA testing, and the overall knowledge of respondents with regards to HBOC and BRCA testing. This study found that the majority of participants indicated that they felt that obstetricians and gynecologists should have the primary responsibility of identifying patients who may be at increased risk of carrying a BRCA mutation. Moreover, this study found that the majority of participants indicated that they felt comfortable or very comfortable in identifying patients at an increased risk of carrying a BRCA mutation. However, only about a quarter of participants indicated that they order BRCA genetic testing one to two times per month or more. Lastly, this study demonstrates that the overall knowledge of HBOC and BRCA testing among this population of obstetricians and gynecologists is poor. The results of this study stress the need for more education regarding HBOC, genetic testing, and strategies for identifying patients that may be at risk for having a mutation in a BRCA gene. Furthermore, it reiterates the importance of raising awareness to current practice guidelines and recommendations that can assist obstetricians and gynecologist to better identify and manage patients that may be at an increased risk of having HBOC.

Evidence of hepatitis C transmission in healthcare settings in Karachi, Pakistan

Transmission of Hepatitis C (HCV) in Pakistan is a continuing public health problem. Several cultural and behavioral practices promote HCV transmission through the use of unsafe needles and blood products. This study aimed to determine the prominent risk factors associated with HCV transmission in the Indus Hospital catchment population. A case-control study design was implemented to enroll 300 laboratory confirmed HCV+ participants from consulting clinics at Indus Hospital and 300 laboratory confirmed HCV− participants from both the consulting clinics and the surrounding community. Odds ratios and their 95% were calculated for each risk factor to create a two gender specific multivariable models and a combined multivariable model. Participants who received 12 or more injections in the past year, ever received a blood transfusion, or ever had dental work performed were all independently significant more likely to be HCV+ when compared to those who received 1–4 injections in the past year, never received a blood transfusion, or never had dental work performed. Female participants who received 12 or more injections in the past year, had a blood transfusion while pregnant, or ever had dental work performed were all significantly more likely to be HCV+ while males who received 12 or more injections in the past year were also significantly more likely to be HCV+. Participants who brought their own needles to their injections or infusions along with those who were born in the Sindh province were significantly less likely to be HCV+ when compared to those who did not bring their own needles or born in the Punjab province. ^ Clearly transmission in healthcare settings are implicated for HCV transmission. A population level preventative approach must be taken to educate both the population and healthcare practitioners to prevent further transmission in the Pakistani healthcare system. Participants should also be followed and re-interviewed to ask where they received their various treatments as well as assess their knowledge and attitudes towards injections, infusions, and other unsafe medical procedures.^

Sacred vocation program follow up evaluation at the Baylor healthcare system

Background: The Sacred Vocation Program (SVP) (Amick B, Karff S., 2003) helps workers find meaning, spirituality, and see their job as a sacred vocation. The SVP is based on Participatory Action Research (PAR) (Minkler & Wallerstein, 1997; Parker & Wall, 1998). This study aims to evaluate the SVP implemented at the Baylor Healthcare System, Dallas-Fort Worth. ^ Methods: The study design is a qualitative design. We used data from study participants who have participated in focus groups. During these focus groups specific questions and probes regarding the effectiveness of the SVP have been asked. We analyzed the focus groups and derived themes. ^ Results: Results of this study demonstrate SVP helps graduates feel valued and important. The SVP has improved meaningful work for employees and improved a sense of belonging for participants. The program has also increased participant spirituality. The coping techniques developed during a SVP class helps participants deal with stressful situations. The SVP faces challenges of implementation fidelity, poor communication, program viability in tough economic times and implementation of phase II. Another sustainability challenge for SVP is the perception of the program being a religious one versus a spiritual program. ^ Conclusion: Several aspects of the SVP work. The phase I of SVP is successful in improving meaningful work and a sense of belonging for participants. The coping techniques help participants deal with difficult work situations. The SVP can increase effectiveness through improvements in implementation fidelity, communication and leadership commitment. ^

Implementation of active surveillance cultures and associated infection control practices for the reduction of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus in the healthcare setting: An interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVE. To determine the effectiveness of active surveillance cultures and associated infection control practices on the incidence of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in the acute care setting. DESIGN. A historical analysis of existing clinical data utilizing an interrupted time series design. ^ SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS. Patients admitted to a 260-bed tertiary care facility in Houston, TX between January 2005 through December 2010. ^ INTERVENTION. Infection control practices, including enhanced barrier precautions, compulsive hand hygiene, disinfection and environmental cleaning, and executive ownership and education, were simultaneously introduced during a 5-month intervention implementation period culminating with the implementation of active surveillance screening. Beginning June 2007, all high risk patients were cultured for MRSA nasal carriage within 48 hours of admission. Segmented Poisson regression was used to test the significance of the difference in incidence of healthcare-associated MRSA during the 29-month pre-intervention period compared to the 43-month post-intervention period. ^ RESULTS. A total of 9,957 of 11,095 high-risk patients (89.7%) were screened for MRSA carriage during the intervention period. Active surveillance cultures identified 1,330 MRSA-positive patients (13.4%) contributing to an admission prevalence of 17.5% in high-risk patients. The mean rate of healthcare-associated MRSA infection and colonization decreased from 1.1 per 1,000 patient-days in the pre-intervention period to 0.36 per 1,000 patient-days in the post-intervention period (P<0.001). The effect of the intervention in association with the percentage of S. aureus isolates susceptible to oxicillin were shown to be statistically significantly associated with the incidence of MRSA infection and colonization (IRR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.31-0.80 and IRR = 0.004, 95% CI = 0.00003-0.40, respectively). ^ CONCLUSIONS. It can be concluded that aggressively targeting patients at high risk for colonization of MRSA with active surveillance cultures and associated infection control practices as part of a multifaceted, hospital-wide intervention is effective in reducing the incidence of healthcare-associated MRSA.^

Geographic variation in the utilization and survival associated with oxaliplatin chemotherapy in patients with stage III colon cancer

Background: Overall objectives of this dissertation are to examine the geographic variation and socio-demographic disparities (by age, race and gender) in the utilization and survival of newly FDA-approved chemotherapy agents (Oxaliplatin-containing regimens) as well as to determine the cost-effectiveness of Oxaliplatin in a large nationwide and population-based cohort of Medicare patients with resected stage-III colon cancer. Methods: A retrospective cohort of 7,654 Medicare patients was identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results – Medicare linked database. Multiple logistic regression was performed to examine the relationship between receipt of Oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy and geographic regions while adjusting for other patient characteristics. Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the effect of Oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy on the survival variation across regions using 2004-2005 data. Propensity score adjustments were also made to control for potential bias related to non-random allocation of the treatment group. We used Kaplan-Meier sample average estimator to calculate the cost of disease after cancer-specific surgery to death, loss-to follow-up or censorship. Results: Only 51% of the stage-III patients received adjuvant chemotherapy within three to six months of colon-cancer specific surgery. Patients in the rural regions were approximately 30% less likely to receive Oxaliplatin chemotherapy than those residing in a big metro region (OR=0.69, p=0.033). The hazard ratio for patients residing in metro region was comparable to those residing in big metro region (HR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.49-2.28). Patients who received Oxalipaltin chemotherapy were 33% less likely to die than those received 5-FU only chemotherapy (adjusted HR=0.67, 95% CI: 0.41-1.11). KMSA-adjusted mean payments were almost 2.5 times higher in the Oxaliplatin-containing group compared to 5-FU only group ($45,378 versus $17,856). When compared to no chemotherapy group, ICER of 5-FU based regimen was $12,767 per LYG, and ICER of Oxaliplatin-chemotherapy was $60,863 per LYG. Oxaliplatin was found economically dominated by 5-FU only chemotherapy in this study population. Conclusion: Chemotherapy use varies across geographic regions. We also observed considerable survival differences across geographic regions; the difference remained even after adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics. The cost-effectiveness of Oxaliplatin in Medicare patients may be over-estimated in the clinical trials. Our study found 5-FU only chemotherapy cost-effective in adjuvant settings in patients with stage-III colon cancer.^

UNDERSTANDING INTERRUPTIONS IN HEALTHCARE: DEVELOPING A MODEL

Developing a Model Interruption is a known human factor that contributes to errors and catastrophic events in healthcare as well as other high-risk industries. The landmark Institute of Medicine (IOM) report, To Err is Human, brought attention to the significance of preventable errors in medicine and suggested that interruptions could be a contributing factor. Previous studies of interruptions in healthcare did not offer a conceptual model by which to study interruptions. As a result of the serious consequences of interruptions investigated in other high-risk industries, there is a need to develop a model to describe, understand, explain, and predict interruptions and their consequences in healthcare. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop a model grounded in the literature and to use the model to describe and explain interruptions in healthcare. Specifically, this model would be used to describe and explain interruptions occurring in a Level One Trauma Center. A trauma center was chosen because this environment is characterized as intense, unpredictable, and interrupt-driven. The first step in developing the model began with a review of the literature which revealed that the concept interruption did not have a consistent definition in either the healthcare or non-healthcare literature. Walker and Avant’s method of concept analysis was used to clarify and define the concept. The analysis led to the identification of five defining attributes which include (1) a human experience, (2) an intrusion of a secondary, unplanned, and unexpected task, (3) discontinuity, (4) externally or internally initiated, and (5) situated within a context. However, before an interruption could commence, five conditions known as antecedents must occur. For an interruption to take place (1) an intent to interrupt is formed by the initiator, (2) a physical signal must pass a threshold test of detection by the recipient, (3) the sensory system of the recipient is stimulated to respond to the initiator, (4) an interruption task is presented to recipient, and (5) the interruption task is either accepted or rejected by v the recipient. An interruption was determined to be quantifiable by (1) the frequency of occurrence of an interruption, (2) the number of times the primary task has been suspended to perform an interrupting task, (3) the length of time the primary task has been suspended, and (4) the frequency of returning to the primary task or not returning to the primary task. As a result of the concept analysis, a definition of an interruption was derived from the literature. An interruption is defined as a break in the performance of a human activity initiated internal or external to the recipient and occurring within the context of a setting or location. This break results in the suspension of the initial task by initiating the performance of an unplanned task with the assumption that the initial task will be resumed. The definition is inclusive of all the defining attributes of an interruption. This is a standard definition that can be used by the healthcare industry. From the definition, a visual model of an interruption was developed. The model was used to describe and explain the interruptions recorded for an instrumental case study of physicians and registered nurses (RNs) working in a Level One Trauma Center. Five physicians were observed for a total of 29 hours, 31 minutes. Eight registered nurses were observed for a total of 40 hours 9 minutes. Observations were made on either the 0700–1500 or the 1500-2300 shift using the shadowing technique. Observations were recorded in the field note format. The field notes were analyzed by a hybrid method of categorizing activities and interruptions. The method was developed by using both a deductive a priori classification framework and by the inductive process utilizing line-byline coding and constant comparison as stated in Grounded Theory. The following categories were identified as relative to this study: Intended Recipient - the person to be interrupted Unintended Recipient - not the intended recipient of an interruption; i.e., receiving a phone call that was incorrectly dialed Indirect Recipient – the incidental recipient of an interruption; i.e., talking with another, thereby suspending the original activity Recipient Blocked – the intended recipient does not accept the interruption Recipient Delayed – the intended recipient postpones an interruption Self-interruption – a person, independent of another person, suspends one activity to perform another; i.e., while walking, stops abruptly and talks to another person Distraction – briefly disengaging from a task Organizational Design – the physical layout of the workspace that causes a disruption in workflow Artifacts Not Available – supplies and equipment that are not available in the workspace causing a disruption in workflow Initiator – a person who initiates an interruption Interruption by Organizational Design and Artifacts Not Available were identified as two new categories of interruption. These categories had not previously been cited in the literature. Analysis of the observations indicated that physicians were found to perform slightly fewer activities per hour when compared to RNs. This variance may be attributed to differing roles and responsibilities. Physicians were found to have more activities interrupted when compared to RNs. However, RNs experienced more interruptions per hour. Other people were determined to be the most commonly used medium through which to deliver an interruption. Additional mediums used to deliver an interruption vii included the telephone, pager, and one’s self. Both physicians and RNs were observed to resume an original interrupted activity more often than not. In most interruptions, both physicians and RNs performed only one or two interrupting activities before returning to the original interrupted activity. In conclusion the model was found to explain all interruptions observed during the study. However, the model will require an even more comprehensive study in order to establish its predictive value.