Analysis of recurrent failure times: A time-dependent Yule process approach

Analysis of recurrent events has been widely discussed in medical, health services, insurance, and engineering areas in recent years. This research proposes to use a nonhomogeneous Yule process with the proportional intensity assumption to model the hazard function on recurrent events data and the associated risk factors. This method assumes that repeated events occur for each individual, with given covariates, according to a nonhomogeneous Yule process with intensity function λx(t) = λ 0(t) · exp( x′β). One of the advantages of using a non-homogeneous Yule process for recurrent events is that it assumes that the recurrent rate is proportional to the number of events that occur up to time t. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to provide estimates of the parameters in the model, and a generalized scoring iterative procedure is applied in numerical computation. ^ Model comparisons between the proposed method and other existing recurrent models are addressed by simulation. One example concerning recurrent myocardial infarction events compared between two distinct populations, Mexican-American and Non-Hispanic Whites in the Corpus Christi Heart Project is examined. ^

Outcomes and cost effectiveness of treating type 2 diabetes with a nurse case manager following treatment algorithms versus primary care physicians

Background. Diabetes places a significant burden on the health care system. Reduction in blood glucose levels (HbA1c) reduces the risk of complications; however, little is known about the impact of disease management programs on medical costs for patients with diabetes. In 2001, economic costs associated with diabetes totaled $100 billion, and indirect costs totaled $54 billion. ^ Objective. To compare outcomes of nurse case management by treatment algorithms with conventional primary care for glycemic control and cardiovascular risk factors in type 2 diabetic patients in a low-income Mexican American community-based setting, and to compare the cost effectiveness of the two programs. Patient compliance was also assessed. ^ Research design and methods. An observational group-comparison to evaluate a treatment intervention for type 2 diabetes management was implemented at three out-patient health facilities in San Antonio, Texas. All eligible type 2 diabetic patients attending the clinics during 1994–1996 became part of the study. Data were obtained from the study database, medical records, hospital accounting, and pharmacy cost lists, and entered into a computerized database. Three groups were compared: a Community Clinic Nurse Case Manager (CC-TA) following treatment algorithms, a University Clinic Nurse Case Manager (UC-TA) following treatment algorithms, and Primary Care Physicians (PCP) following conventional care practices at a Family Practice Clinic. The algorithms provided a disease management model specifically for hyperglycemia, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and microalbuminuria that progressively moved the patient toward ideal goals through adjustments in medication, self-monitoring of blood glucose, meal planning, and reinforcement of diet and exercise. Cost effectiveness of hemoglobin AI, final endpoints was compared. ^ Results. There were 358 patients analyzed: 106 patients in CC-TA, 170 patients in UC-TA, and 82 patients in PCP groups. Change in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) was the primary outcome measured. HbA1c results were presented at baseline, 6 and 12 months for CC-TA (10.4%, 7.1%, 7.3%), UC-TA (10.5%, 7.1%, 7.2%), and PCP (10.0%, 8.5%, 8.7%). Mean patient compliance was 81%. Levels of cost effectiveness were significantly different between clinics. ^ Conclusion. Nurse case management with treatment algorithms significantly improved glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes, and was more cost effective. ^

Are functional and genetic components of platelets linked to coronary artery disease: A case-control study

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a multifactorial disease process involving behavioral, inflammatory, clinical, thrombotic, and genetic components. Previous epidemiologic studies focused on identifying behavioral and demographic risk factors of CAD, but none focused on platelets. Current platelet literature lacks the known effects of platelet function and platelet receptor polymorphisms on CAD. This case-control analysis addressed these issues by analyzing data collected for a previous study. Cases were individuals who had undergone CABG and thus had been diagnosed with CAD, while the controls were volunteers presumed to be CAD free. The platelet function variables analyzed included fibrinogen Von Willebrand Factor activity (VWF), shear-induced platelet aggregation (SIPA), sCD40L, and mean platelet volume; and the platelet polymorphisms studied included PIA, α2 807, Ko, Kozak, and VNTR. Univariate analysis found fibrinogen, VWF, SIPA, and PIA to be independent risk factors of CAD. Logistic regression was used to build a predictive model for CAD using the platelet function and platelet polymorphism data adjusted for age, sex, race, and current smoking status. A model containing only platelet polymorphisms and their respective receptor densities, found polymorphisms within GPIbα to be associated with CAD, yielding an 86% (95% C.I. 0.97–3.55) increased risk with the presence of at least 1 polymorphism in Ko, Kozak, or VNTR. Another model included both platelet function and platelet polymorphism data. Fibrinogen, the receptor density of GPIbα, and the polymorphism in GPIa-IIa (α2 807) were all associated with CAD with odds ratios of 1.10, 1.04, and 2.30 for fibrinogen (10mg/dl increase), GPIbα receptors (1 MFI increase), and GPIa-IIa, respectively. In addition, risk estimates and 99% confidence intervals adjusted for race were calculated to determine if the presence of a platelet receptor polymorphism was associated with CAD. The results were as follows: PIA (1.64, 0.74–3.65); α2 807 (1.35, 0.77–2.37); Ko (1.71, 0.70–4.16); Kozak (1.17, 0.54–2.52); and VNTR (1.24, 0.52–2.91). Although not statistically significant, all platelet polymorphisms were associated with an increased risk for CAD. These exploratory findings indicate that platelets do appear to have a role in atherosclerosis and that anti-platelet drugs targeting GPI-IIa and GPIbα may be better treatment candidates for individuals with CAD. ^

Nonlinear tests for genetic studies of complex disease

Linkage and association studies are major analytical tools to search for susceptibility genes for complex diseases. With the availability of large collection of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and the rapid progresses for high throughput genotyping technologies, together with the ambitious goals of the International HapMap Project, genetic markers covering the whole genome will be available for genome-wide linkage and association studies. In order not to inflate the type I error rate in performing genome-wide linkage and association studies, multiple adjustment for the significant level for each independent linkage and/or association test is required, and this has led to the suggestion of genome-wide significant cut-off as low as 5 × 10 −7. Almost no linkage and/or association study can meet such a stringent threshold by the standard statistical methods. Developing new statistics with high power is urgently needed to tackle this problem. This dissertation proposes and explores a class of novel test statistics that can be used in both population-based and family-based genetic data by employing a completely new strategy, which uses nonlinear transformation of the sample means to construct test statistics for linkage and association studies. Extensive simulation studies are used to illustrate the properties of the nonlinear test statistics. Power calculations are performed using both analytical and empirical methods. Finally, real data sets are analyzed with the nonlinear test statistics. Results show that the nonlinear test statistics have correct type I error rates, and most of the studied nonlinear test statistics have higher power than the standard chi-square test. This dissertation introduces a new idea to design novel test statistics with high power and might open new ways to mapping susceptibility genes for complex diseases. ^

Enteroaggregative Escherichia coli as a cause of acute diarrhea

Enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (EAEC) are considered an important emerging enteric and food-borne pathogen. The groups importantly affected by EAEC include international travelers, children in the developing world, and patients with HIV infection. EAEC does not commonly cause diarrheal illness in all hosts. ^ The reasons for the observed clinical variation in EAEC infection are multifactorial and are dependant on the pathogen, the inoculum ingested and the host susceptibility. A major obstacle in identifying the mechanism of pathogenesis for EAEC is the heterogeneity in virulence of strains. No EAEC virulence gene is consistently present in all diarrheagenic strains. However, a recent report suggests that a package of plasmid borne and chromosomal virulence factors are under the control of the described transcriptional activator aggR. Although the exact inoculum required for EAEC diarrheal illness is not known, a volunteer study has shown that oral ingestion of 10 10 cfu of virulent EAEC elicited diarrhea. Ongoing studies are being conducted to better define the exact infectious dose. There are also host factors associated with increased susceptibility of persons to diarrheal illness with EAEC. ^ The following three manuscripts: (1) review EAEC as an emerging enteric pathogen; (2) identify EAEC as a cause of acute diarrhea among different subpopulations worldwide; (3) identify virulence characteristics and the molecular epidemiology of EAEC isolates among travelers with diarrheal illness and describe the pathogenesis of EAEC infection. ^

Insights into the biology of lymphatic metastasis

Recent data suggest that the generation of new lymphatic vessels (i.e. lymphangiogenesis) may be a rate-limiting step in the dissemination of tumor cells to regional lymph nodes. However, efforts to study the cellular and molecular interactions that take place between tumor cells and lymphatic endothelial cells have been limited due to a lack of lymphatic endothelial cell lines available for study. ^ I have used a microsurgical approach to establish conditionally immortalized lymphatic endothelial cell lines from the afferent mesenteric lymphatic vessels of mice. Characterization of lymphatic endothelial cells, and tumor-associated lymphatic vessels revealed high expression levels of VCAM-1, which is known to facilitate adhesion of some tumor cells to vascular endothelial cells. Further investigation revealed that murine melanoma cells selected for high expression of α4, a counter-receptor for VCAM-1, demonstrated enhanced adhesion to lymphatic endothelial cells in vitro, and increased tumorigenicity and lymphatic metastasis in vivo, despite similar lymphatic vessel numbers. ^ Next, I examined the effects of growth factors that regulate lymphangiogenesis, and report that several growth factors are capable of activating survival and proliferation pathways of lymphatic endothelial cells. The dual protein tyrosine kinase inhibitor AEE788 (EGFR and VEGFR-2) inhibited the activation of Akt and MAPK in lymphatic endothelial cells responding to multiple growth factors. Moreover, oral treatment of mice with AEE788 decreased lymphatic vessel density and production of lymphatic metastasis by human colon cancer cells growing in the cecum of nude mice. ^ In the last set of experiments, I investigated the surgical management of lymphatic metastasis using a novel model of sentinel lymphadenectomy in live mice bearing subcutaneous B16-BL6 melanoma. The data demonstrate that this procedure when combined with wide excision of the primary melanoma, significantly enhanced survival of syngeneic C57BL/6 mice. ^ Collectively, these results indicate that the production of lymphatic metastasis depends on lymphangiogenesis, tumor cell adhesion to lymphatic endothelial cells, and proliferation of tumor cells in lymph nodes. Thus, lymphatic metastasis is a multi-step, complex, and active process that depends upon multiple interactions between tumor cells and tumor associated lymphatic endothelial cells. ^

Preclinical modeling of multi-drug cancer therapies

Anticancer drugs typically are administered in the clinic in the form of mixtures, sometimes called combinations. Only in rare cases, however, are mixtures approved as drugs. Rather, research on mixtures tends to occur after single drugs have been approved. The goal of this research project was to develop modeling approaches that would encourage rational preclinical mixture design. To this end, a series of models were developed. First, several QSAR classification models were constructed to predict the cytotoxicity, oral clearance, and acute systemic toxicity of drugs. The QSAR models were applied to a set of over 115,000 natural compounds in order to identify promising ones for testing in mixtures. Second, an improved method was developed to assess synergistic, antagonistic, and additive effects between drugs in a mixture. This method, dubbed the MixLow method, is similar to the Median-Effect method, the de facto standard for assessing drug interactions. The primary difference between the two is that the MixLow method uses a nonlinear mixed-effects model to estimate parameters of concentration-effect curves, rather than an ordinary least squares procedure. Parameter estimators produced by the MixLow method were more precise than those produced by the Median-Effect Method, and coverage of Loewe index confidence intervals was superior. Third, a model was developed to predict drug interactions based on scores obtained from virtual docking experiments. This represents a novel approach for modeling drug mixtures and was more useful for the data modeled here than competing approaches. The model was applied to cytotoxicity data for 45 mixtures, each composed of up to 10 selected drugs. One drug, doxorubicin, was a standard chemotherapy agent and the others were well-known natural compounds including curcumin, EGCG, quercetin, and rhein. Predictions of synergism/antagonism were made for all possible fixed-ratio mixtures, cytotoxicities of the 10 best-scoring mixtures were tested, and drug interactions were assessed. Predicted and observed responses were highly correlated (r2 = 0.83). Results suggested that some mixtures allowed up to an 11-fold reduction of doxorubicin concentrations without sacrificing efficacy. Taken together, the models developed in this project present a general approach to rational design of mixtures during preclinical drug development. ^

Drinking water quality perception along the U.S.-Mexico border

Drinking water-related exposures within populations living in the United States-Mexico border region, particularly among Hispanics, is an area that is largely unknown. Specifically, perceptions that may affect water source selection is an issue that has not been fully addressed. This study evaluates drinking water quality perceptions in a mostly Hispanic community living along the United States-Mexico border, a community also facing water scarcity issues. Using a survey that was administered during two seasons (winter and summer), data were collected from a total of 608 participants, of which 303 were living in the United States and 305 in Mexico. A (random) convenience sampling technique was used to select households and those interviewed were over 18 years of age. Statistically significant differences were observed involving country of residence (p=0.002). Specifically, those living in Mexico reported a higher use of bottled water than those living in the United States. Perception factors, especially taste, were cited as main reasons for not selecting unfiltered tap water as a primary drinking water source. Understanding what influences drinking water source preference can aid in the development of risk communication strategies regarding water quality. ^

Evaluation of residential bioaerosol concentrations and their related health effects

Limited research has been conducted on the collection of bioaerosols and their health effects on individuals in the El Paso area. A year long study was conducted in the region to evaluate indoor bioaerosol concentrations (Mota et al., unpublished data). As part of the study, air samples were collected during each season for a year from 38 homes from the El Paso area. The main objective of the study was to assess seasonality differences in bioaerosol concentrations. The air samples were then cultured and analyzed for bacterial and fungal concentrations. As a supplement to that study, a health questionnaire was given during each seasonal air sampling to the participating resident to complete regarding their health status. The aim of this study was to evaluate the health questionnaire and assess any associations between the collected bioaerosol concentrations and the self-reported respiratory symptoms of the participating home residents. Symptom frequencies were tabulated and basic descriptive statistics, along with logistic regressions, were conducted on the relationship between “High” reporters of symptoms and bioaerosol concentrations and environmental factors. The most commonly reported symptoms by homeowners were nasal symptoms and allergies. In addition, there was evidence to support an association between indoor respirable bacteria concentrations and homeowners that report greater than or equal to 8 respiratory symptoms (OR=1.10, p=0.045). Smoking status, indoor humidity and season also displayed associations with homeowners that report greater than or equal to 8 respiratory symptoms (OR=3.3, p=0.045; OR=71.0, p=0.030; OR=7.2, 3.2, p=0.001, 0.008). With such a strong association, future assessment of symptoms, bioaerosol concentrations and environmental factors is needed to further establish their relationship. ^

A process evaluation of a health literacy intervention targeting pediatric providers' communication skills at the Texas Children's Health Plan

Background. Health literacy is an important determinant for quality health care, and affects communication between patients and physicians. Poor communication may result in negative effects in health. Improved communication between patients and physicians could positively affect health outcomes. Communication skills are teachable.^ Objectives. (1) to evaluate the process involved in the design and implementation of a health literacy intervention targeting pediatric providers’ communication skills at the Texas Children’s Health Plan in Houston, Texas; and (2) to describe lessons learned from this process that may be used in future attempts to address the issue of health literacy and health communication. ^ Design/methods. The process evaluation of the implementation of a health literacy strategy at the Texas Children’s Health Plan (TCHP) consisted of a critical analysis of all documents and minutes from meetings of the team of investigators. It also involved a secondary analysis of data collected between December 2006 and June 2007. Descriptive statistics, paired t-test and Wilcoxon-signed-rank test were employed in analyzing the data. This information was complemented with a limited review of existing literature on communication skills training programs. ^ Results. The design of the educational intervention followed recommendations from experts in the field of health literacy. The delivery of the intervention was possible and benefited from existing resources and logistics within the TCHP. Very few targeted providers participated in two offerings of the workshop (6.6% and 1.7% respectively). After the educational intervention, providers showed increased knowledge of health literacy facts and its effects in health (p=0.001); increased awareness of the low health literacy problem (p=0.003); increased expectations for change in practice (p=0.002), and intent to use health literacy strategies for communication immediately following the intervention (p=0.001). Low participation indicated the need for further investigation of barriers to, and means for successful implementation of programs aimed to improving health communication. ^ Conclusions. A short, focused intervention utilizing health literacy strategies for communication appeared effective in increasing knowledge and intentions for change in a small group of pediatric providers. ^

Household health assessment and associated water sample analysis in the Miches watershed of the Dominican Republic

Background. Diarrhea and malnutrition are the leading causes of mortality for children age one to four in the Dominican Republic. Communities within the Miches watershed lack sanitation infrastructure and water purification systems, which increases the risk of exposure to water-borne pathogens. The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to analyze health information gathered through household interviews and to test water samples for the presence of diarrheagenic pathogens and antibiotic-resistant bacteria within the Miches watershed. Methods. Frequency counts and thematic analysis were used to investigate Human Health Survey responses and Fisher's exact test was used to determine correlation between water source and reported illness. Bacteria cultured from water samples were analyzed by Gram stain, real-time PCR, API® 20E biochemical identification, and for antibiotic resistance. Results. Community members reported concerns about water sources with respect to water quality, availability, and environmental contamination. Pathogenic strains of E. coli were present in the water samples. Drinking aquifer water was positively-correlated with reported stomach aches (p=0.04) while drinking from rivers or creeks was associated with the reported absence of “gripe” (cold or flu) (p=0.01). The lack of association between reported illnesses and water source for the majority of variables suggested that there were multiple vehicles of disease transmission. Antibiotic resistant bacteria were isolated from the water samples tested. Conclusions. The presence of pathogenic E. coli in water samples suggested that water is at least one route of transmission for diarrheagenic pathogens in the Miches watershed. The presence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the water samples may indicate the proliferation of resistance plasmids in the environment as a result of antibiotic overuse in human and animal populations and a lack of sanitation infrastructure. An intervention that targets areas of hygiene, sanitation, and water purification is recommended to limit human exposure to diarrheagenic pathogens and antibiotic-resistant organisms. ^

Assessing pediatric nasal carriage of S. aureus & MRSA

Staphylococcus aureus and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has become an increasing problem in the community. Nasal carriage of these bacteria has been shown to be a predisposing factor for infection and environmental contamination. This serious public health concern prompted an investigation to assess the pediatric nasal carriage of these bacteria in an effort to better understand the populations at risk and prevention of infection.^ This prospective study surveys 30 children from the Northwest Assistance Ministries (NAM) pediatric clinic from October 2008 to the present. Two nasal swabs were taken in 2-4 week intervals to determine S. aureus carrier status. Microbiologic tests were conducted to isolate and identify S. aureus from nasal cultures. Children with 2 cultures positive for S. aureus were classified as persistent carriers, those with 1 positive and 1 negative culture were classified as intermittent carriers, and those with 2 negative cultures were classified as noncarriers. This information was related to patient records and statistical analyses (X 2 and t-tests) were performed.^ Distribution of S. aureus carriage related to patient demographics (age, sex, & race) was showed no significant differences between S. aureus positive and S. aureus negative patient populations (p = 0.8). Additionally, the distribution of carrier status related to demographics also showed no significant difference (p = 0.8). Finally, the distribution of carrier status related to relevant medical history (immunizations current, past infection, & antibiotic use at time of swabbing) showed no significant difference (p = 0.4).^ This study is a snapshot of an ongoing study to assess the pediatric nasal carriage of S. aureus and MRSA. The inability to draw any reliable conclusion from the distribution of data is likely a result of an inadequate samples size. This is one of few studies assessing pediatric nasal carriage of S. aureus and targeting an underrepresented, Hispanic population is especially unique. Continuing this study allows for a better understanding of the epidemiology of this bacterium which will hopefully lead to appropriate interventions thus preventing future S. aureus infections.^

Involvement of lipocalin 2 in leukemia and breast cancer

Human lipocalin 2 is described as the neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL). The lipocalin 2 gene encodes a small, secreted glycoprotein that possesses a variety of functions, of which the best characterized function is organic iron binding activity. Elevated NGAL expression has been observed in many human cancers including breast, colorectal, pancreatic and ovarian cancers. I focused on the characterization of NGAL function in chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) and breast cancer. Using the leukemic xenograft mouse model, we demonstrated that over-expression of NGAL in K562 cells, a leukemic cell line, led to a higher apoptotic rate and an atrophy phenotype in the spleen of inoculated mice compared to K562 cells alone. These results indicate that NGAL plays a primary role in suppressing hematopoiesis by inducing apoptosis within normal hematopoietic cells. In the breast cancer project, we analyzed two microarray data sets of breast cancer cell lines ( n = 54) and primary breast cancer samples (n = 318), and demonstrated that high NGAL expression is significantly correlated with several tumor characteristics, including negative estrogen receptor (ER) status, positive HER2 status, high tumor grade, and lymph node metastasis. Ectopic NGAL expression in non-aggressive (ZR75.1 and MCF7) cells led to aggressive tumor phenotypes in vitro and in vivo. Conversely, knockdown of NGAL expression in various breast cancer cell lines by shRNA lentiviral infection significantly decreased migration, invasion, and metastasis activities of tumor cells both in vitro and in vivo . It has been previously reported that transgenic mice with a mutation in the region of trans-membrane domain (V664E) of HER2 develop mammary tumors that progress to lung metastasis. However, we observed that genetic deletion of the 24p3 gene, a mouse homolog of NGAL, in HER2 transgenic mice by breeding with 24p3-null mice resulted in a significant delay of mammary tumor formation and reduction of lung metastasis. Strikingly, we also found that treatment with affinity purified 24p3 antibodies in the 4T1 breast cancer mice strongly reduced lung metastasis. Our studies provide evidence that NGAL plays a critical role in breast cancer development and progression, and thus NGAL has potential as a new therapeutic target in breast cancer.^

Variance of familial dietary intake

Although many family-based genetic studies have collected dietary data, very few have used the dietary information in published findings. No single solution has been presented or discussed in the literature to deal with the problem of using factor analyses for the analyses of dietary data from several related individuals from a given household. The standard statistical approach of factor analysis cannot be applied to the VIVA LA FAMILIA Study diet data to ascertain dietary patterns since this population consists of three children from each family, thus the dietary patterns of the related children may be correlated and non-independent. Addressing this problem in this project will enable us to describe the dietary patterns in Hispanic families and to explore the relationships between dietary patterns and childhood obesity. ^ In the VIVA LA FAMILIA Study, an overweight child was first identified and then his/her siblings and parents were brought in for data collection which included 24 hour recalls and food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Dietary intake data were collected using FFQ and 24 hour recalls on 1030 Hispanic children from 319 families. ^ The design of the VIVA LA FAMILIA Study has important and unique statistical considerations since its participants are related to each other, the majority form distinct nuclear families. Thus, the standard approach of factor analysis cannot be applied to these diet data to ascertain dietary patterns. In this project we propose to investigate whether the determinants of the correlation matrix of each family unit will allow us to adjust the original correlation matrix of the dietary intake data prior to ascertaining dietary intake patterns. If these methods are appropriate, then in the future the dietary patterns among related individuals could be assessed by standard orthogonal principal component factor analysis.^

The association between mental health and cigarette smoking in active duty military members

Previous research has shown an association between mental health status and cigarette smoking. This study examined four specific mental health predictors and the outcome variable any smoking, defined as smoking one or more cigarettes in the past 30 days. The population included active duty military members serving in the United States Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps. The data was collected during the 2005 Department of Defense Survey of Health Related Behaviors Among Active Duty Military Personnel, a component of the Defense Lifestyle Assessment Program. The sample size included 13,603 subjects. This cross sectional prevalence study consisted of descriptive statistics, univariate analysis, and multivariate logistic regression analysis of the four mental health predictors and the any smoking outcome variable. Multivariate adjustment showed an association between the four mental health predictors and any smoking. This association is consistent with previous literature and can help guide public health officials in the development of smoking prevention and cessation programs.^