Metabolic syndrome in Mexican American females---prevalence and impact of age, socioeconomic status, and family history of type II diabetes

This thesis presents an analysis of data from Molecular Epidemiology of Type II Diabetes Mellitus in Mexican Americans. The study included 294 families. Among the participating families were 500 Mexican American females aged 19 to 86 who provided information on characteristics such as height, weight, and a variety of biochemical indicators. The research questions for this thesis are: (1) How strong is the association between indicators of the metabolic syndrome in study participants and their family histories of type II diabetes; and (2) How is an individual's family history of type II diabetes, age and socioeconomic status associated with the metabolic syndrome? In this thesis education status of the participants is used as an indicator of socioeconomic status. Answers to these questions are provided through the analysis of women's responses to written questionnaires and biochemical data. ^

Exploration of genetic susceptibility to pancreatic cancer: A GWAS approach

Pancreatic cancer is the 4th most common cause for cancer death in the United States, accompanied by less than 5% five-year survival rate based on current treatments, particularly because it is usually detected at a late stage. Identifying a high-risk population to launch an effective preventive strategy and intervention to control this highly lethal disease is desperately needed. The genetic etiology of pancreatic cancer has not been well profiled. We hypothesized that unidentified genetic variants by previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) for pancreatic cancer, due to stringent statistical threshold or missing interaction analysis, may be unveiled using alternative approaches. To achieve this aim, we explored genetic susceptibility to pancreatic cancer in terms of marginal associations of pathway and genes, as well as their interactions with risk factors. We conducted pathway- and gene-based analysis using GWAS data from 3141 pancreatic cancer patients and 3367 controls with European ancestry. Using the gene set ridge regression in association studies (GRASS) method, we analyzed 197 pathways from the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) database. Using the logistic kernel machine (LKM) test, we analyzed 17906 genes defined by University of California Santa Cruz (UCSC) database. Using the likelihood ratio test (LRT) in a logistic regression model, we analyzed 177 pathways and 17906 genes for interactions with risk factors in 2028 pancreatic cancer patients and 2109 controls with European ancestry. After adjusting for multiple comparisons, six pathways were marginally associated with risk of pancreatic cancer ( P < 0.00025): Fc epsilon RI signaling, maturity onset diabetes of the young, neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction, long-term depression (Ps < 0.0002), and the olfactory transduction and vascular smooth muscle contraction pathways (P = 0.0002; Nine genes were marginally associated with pancreatic cancer risk (P < 2.62 × 10−5), including five reported genes (ABO, HNF1A, CLPTM1L, SHH and MYC), as well as four novel genes (OR13C4, OR 13C3, KCNA6 and HNF4 G); three pathways significantly interacted with risk factors on modifying the risk of pancreatic cancer (P < 2.82 × 10−4): chemokine signaling pathway with obesity ( P < 1.43 × 10−4), calcium signaling pathway (P < 2.27 × 10−4) and MAPK signaling pathway with diabetes (P < 2.77 × 10−4). However, none of the 17906 genes tested for interactions survived the multiple comparisons corrections. In summary, our current GWAS study unveiled unidentified genetic susceptibility to pancreatic cancer using alternative methods. These novel findings provide new perspectives on genetic susceptibility to and molecular mechanisms of pancreatic cancer, once confirmed, will shed promising light on the prevention and treatment of this disease. ^

A comparison of adherence with minocycline treatment in Parkinson's disease and rheumatoid arthritis clinical trials

Background: Little is known about the effects on patient adherence when the same study drug is administered in the same dose in two populations with two different diseases in two different clinical trials. The Minocycline in Rheumatoid Arthritis (MIRA) trial and the NIH Exploratory Trials in Parkinson's disease (NET-PD) Futility Study I provide a unique opportunity to do the above and to compare methods measuring adherence. This study may increase understanding of the influence of disease and adverse events on patient adherence and will provide insights to investigators selecting adherence assessment methods in clinical trials of minocycline and other drugs in future.^ Methods: Minocycline adherence by pill count and the effect of adverse events was compared in the MIRA and NET-PD FS1 trials using multivariable linear regression. Within the MIRA trial, agreement between assay and pill count was compared. The association of adverse events with assay adherence was examined using multivariable logistic regression.^ Results: Adherence derived from pill count in the MIRA and NET-PD FS1 trials did not differ significantly. Adverse events potentially related to minocycline did not appear useful to predict minocycline adherence. In the MIRA trial, adherence measured by pill count appears higher than adherence measured by assay. Agreement between pill count and assay was poor (kappa statistic = 0.25).^ Limitations: Trial and disease are completely confounded and hence the independent effect of disease on adherence to minocycline treatment cannot be studied.^ Conclusion: Simple pill count may be preferred over assay in the minocycline clinical trials to measure adherence. Assays may be less sensitive in a clinical setting where appointments are not scheduled in relation to medication administration time, given assays depend on many pharmacokinetic and instrument-related factors. However, pill count can be manipulated by the patient. Another study suggested that self-report method is more sensitive than pill count method in differentiating adherence from non-adherence. An effect of medication-related adverse events on adherence could not be detected.^

Identification of genes associated with quantitative traits involved in cardiovascular disease and lipoprotein metabolism

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a threat to public health. It has been reported to be the leading cause of death in United States. The invention of next generation sequencing (NGS) technology has revolutionized the biomedical research. To investigate NGS data of CVD related quantitative traits would contribute to address the unknown etiology and disease mechanism of CVD. NHLBI's Exome Sequencing Project (ESP) contains CVD related phenotypes and their associated NGS exomes sequence data. Initially, a subset of next generation sequencing data consisting of 13 CVD-related quantitative traits was investigated. Only 6 traits, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), height, platelet counts, waist circumference, and weight, were analyzed by functional linear model (FLM) and 7 currently existing methods. FLM outperformed all currently existing methods by identifying the highest number of significant genes and had identified 96, 139, 756, 1162, 1106, and 298 genes associated with SBP, DBP, Height, Platelet, Waist, and Weight respectively. ^

Data quality in trauma transfusion studies and the impact of missing data on predicting massive transfusion

Maximizing data quality may be especially difficult in trauma-related clinical research. Strategies are needed to improve data quality and assess the impact of data quality on clinical predictive models. This study had two objectives. The first was to compare missing data between two multi-center trauma transfusion studies: a retrospective study (RS) using medical chart data with minimal data quality review and the PRospective Observational Multi-center Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) study with standardized quality assurance. The second objective was to assess the impact of missing data on clinical prediction algorithms by evaluating blood transfusion prediction models using PROMMTT data. RS (2005-06) and PROMMTT (2009-10) investigated trauma patients receiving ≥ 1 unit of red blood cells (RBC) from ten Level I trauma centers. Missing data were compared for 33 variables collected in both studies using mixed effects logistic regression (including random intercepts for study site). Massive transfusion (MT) patients received ≥ 10 RBC units within 24h of admission. Correct classification percentages for three MT prediction models were evaluated using complete case analysis and multiple imputation based on the multivariate normal distribution. A sensitivity analysis for missing data was conducted to estimate the upper and lower bounds of correct classification using assumptions about missing data under best and worst case scenarios. Most variables (17/33=52%) had <1% missing data in RS and PROMMTT. Of the remaining variables, 50% demonstrated less missingness in PROMMTT, 25% had less missingness in RS, and 25% were similar between studies. Missing percentages for MT prediction variables in PROMMTT ranged from 2.2% (heart rate) to 45% (respiratory rate). For variables missing >1%, study site was associated with missingness (all p≤0.021). Survival time predicted missingness for 50% of RS and 60% of PROMMTT variables. MT models complete case proportions ranged from 41% to 88%. Complete case analysis and multiple imputation demonstrated similar correct classification results. Sensitivity analysis upper-lower bound ranges for the three MT models were 59-63%, 36-46%, and 46-58%. Prospective collection of ten-fold more variables with data quality assurance reduced overall missing data. Study site and patient survival were associated with missingness, suggesting that data were not missing completely at random, and complete case analysis may lead to biased results. Evaluating clinical prediction model accuracy may be misleading in the presence of missing data, especially with many predictor variables. The proposed sensitivity analysis estimating correct classification under upper (best case scenario)/lower (worst case scenario) bounds may be more informative than multiple imputation, which provided results similar to complete case analysis.^

Retrospective analysis of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) skin and Soft-Tissue Infections (SSTI) in a university hospital emergency department (ED)

Study Objective: Identify the most frequent risk factors of Community Acquired-MRSA (CA-MRSA) Skin and Soft-tissue Infections (SSTIs) using a case series of patients and characterize them by age, race/ethnicity, gender, abscess location, druguse and intravenous drug-user (IVDU), underlying medical conditions, homelessness, treatment resistance, sepsis, those whose last healthcare visit was within the last 12 months, and describe the susceptibility pattern from this central Texas population that have come into the University Medical Center Brackenridge (UMCB) Emergency Department (ED). ^ Methods: This study was a retrospective case-series medical record review involving a convenience sample of patients in 2007 from an urban public hospital's ED in Texas that had a SSTI that tested positive for MRSA. All positive MRSA cultures underwent susceptibility testing to determine antibiotic resistance. The demographic and clinical variables that were independently associated with MRSA were determined by univariate and multivariate analysis using logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR), 95% confidence intervals, and significance (p≤ 0.05). ^ Results: In 2007, there were 857 positive MRSA cultures. The demographics were: males 60% and females 40%, with the average age of 36.2 (std. dev. =13) the study population consisted of non-Hispanic white (42%), Hispanics (38%), and non-Hispanic black (18.8%). Possible risk factors addressed included using recreational drugs (not including IVDU) (27%) homelessness (13%), diabetes status (12.6%) or having an infectious disease, and IVDU (10%). The most frequent abscess location was the leg (26.6%), followed by the arm and torso (both 13.7%). Eighty-three percent of patients had one prominent susceptibility pattern that had a susceptibility rate for the following antibiotics: trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) and vancomycin had 100%, gentamicin 99%, clindamycin 96%, tetracycline 96%, and erythromycin 56%. ^ Conclusion: The ED is becoming an important area for disease transmission between the sterile hospital environment and the outside environment. As always, it is important to further research in the ED in an effort to better understand MRSA transmission and antibiotic resistance, as well as to keep surveillance for the introduction of new opportunistic pathogens into the population. ^

Instrumental variable method for the causal relationship between soluble receptor for advanced glycation end-products (sRAGE) and risk of pancreatic cancer

This thesis project is motivated by the potential problem of using observational data to draw inferences about a causal relationship in observational epidemiology research when controlled randomization is not applicable. Instrumental variable (IV) method is one of the statistical tools to overcome this problem. Mendelian randomization study uses genetic variants as IVs in genetic association study. In this thesis, the IV method, as well as standard logistic and linear regression models, is used to investigate the causal association between risk of pancreatic cancer and the circulating levels of soluble receptor for advanced glycation end-products (sRAGE). Higher levels of serum sRAGE were found to be associated with a lower risk of pancreatic cancer in a previous observational study (255 cases and 485 controls). However, such a novel association may be biased by unknown confounding factors. In a case-control study, we aimed to use the IV approach to confirm or refute this observation in a subset of study subjects for whom the genotyping data were available (178 cases and 177 controls). Two-stage IV method using generalized method of moments-structural mean models (GMM-SMM) was conducted and the relative risk (RR) was calculated. In the first stage analysis, we found that the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs2070600 of the receptor for advanced glycation end-products (AGER) gene meets all three general assumptions for a genetic IV in examining the causal association between sRAGE and risk of pancreatic cancer. The variant allele of SNP rs2070600 of the AGER gene was associated with lower levels of sRAGE, and it was neither associated with risk of pancreatic cancer, nor with the confounding factors. It was a potential strong IV (F statistic = 29.2). However, in the second stage analysis, the GMM-SMM model failed to converge due to non- concaveness probably because of the small sample size. Therefore, the IV analysis could not support the causality of the association between serum sRAGE levels and risk of pancreatic cancer. Nevertheless, these analyses suggest that rs2070600 was a potentially good genetic IV for testing the causality between the risk of pancreatic cancer and sRAGE levels. A larger sample size is required to conduct a credible IV analysis.^

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in HIV-positive patients

The main aim of this study was to look at the association of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and HIV. A secondary goal was to look at the trend of CDI-related deaths in Texas from 1999-2011. To evaluate the coinfection of CDI and HIV, we looked at 2 datasets provided by CHS-TDSHS, for 13 years of study period from 1999-2011: 1) Texas death certificate data and 2) Texas hospital discharge data. An ancillary source of data was national level death data from CDC. We did a secondary data analysis and reported the age-adjusted death rates (mortality) and hospital discharge frequencies (morbidity) for CDI, HIV and for CDI+HIV coinfection.^ Since the turn of the century, CDI has reemerged as an important public health challenge due to the emergence of hypervirulent epidemic strains. From 1999-2011, there has been a significant upward trend in CDI-related death rates; in the state of Texas alone, CDI mortality rate has increased 8.7 fold in this time period at the rate of 0.2 deaths per year per 100,000 individuals. On the contrary, mortality due to HIV has decreased by 46% and has been trending down. The demographic groups in Texas with the highest CDI mortality rates were elderly aged 65+, males, whites and hospital inpatients. The epidemiology of C. difficile has changed in such a way that it is not only staying confined to these traditional high-risk groups, but is also being increasingly reported in low-risk populations such as healthy people in the community (community acquired C. difficile), and most recently immunocompromised patients. Among the latter, HIV can worsen the adverse health outcomes of CDI and vice versa. In patients with CDI and HIV coinfection, higher mortality and morbidity was found in young & middle-aged adults, blacks and males, the same demographic population that is at higher risk for HIV. As with typical CDI, the coinfection was concentrated in the hospital inpatients. Of all the CDI-related deaths in USA from 1999-2010, in the 25-44 year age group, 13% had HIV infection. Of all CDI-related inpatient hospital discharges in Texas from 1999-2011, in patients 44 years and younger, 17% had concomitant HIV infection. Therefore, HIV is a possible novel emerging risk factor for CDI.^

Prevalence of Staphylococcus aureus colonization among high-risk HIV populations

Staphylococcus aureus is a common microorganism in humans, typically colonizing the nasopharynx, skin and other mucosal surfaces. It is among the most frequent causes of clinically-significant bacterial infections accounting for increased morbidity and mortality among individuals with HIV/AIDS. Evidence of higher colonization rates among high-risk HIV populations have been observed however, prevalence estimates have varied. Additionally, behavioral, biological, and/or environmental factors that may account for these high colonization rates are not understood. Previous literature on clinic-based surveys were subject to considerable biases. Additionally, representative samples of high-risk HIV populations were difficult to obtain due in part to an underrepresentation of individuals who may not regularly obtain health care. ^ The main objective of this project is to determine the prevalence of methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) and methicillin-resistant (MRSA) nasal colonization in two populations: 1) men who have sex with men (MSM) and 2) injection drug users (IDU). Both of these populations are included in the third round of the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance System (NHBS) in Houston, Texas. ^ In the NHBS-MSM3 study, logistic regression was used to report odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI). For the NHBS-IDU3 study, to account for the lack of independence between samples, the method of generalized estimating equations was utilized to report adjusted odds ratios and 95% CI. The NHBS-MSM3 study enrolled 202 participants with a MSSA colonization rate of 26.7% and MRSA rate of 3%. In the NHBS-IDU3 study, 18.4% were nasally colonized with MSSA and 5.7% were nasally colonized with MRSA. Among the NHBS-MSM3 population, high-risk sexual practices were associated with colonization. For the NHBS-IDU3 population, age, marital status, employment status, and the presence of scabs, were associated with colonization status when controlling for size of recruitment network. In multivariate GEE analyses, the use of antiretroviral medications and age remained significantly associated with S. aureus nasal colonization when controlling for size of recruitment network and gender. In both studies, a significantly higher than expected S. aureus and MRSA colonization rate was observed as compared to colonization rates described for the general population. However, these estimates were moderate in comparison to reported clinic-based MSM and IDU S. aureus colonization findings. This study validates substantial prevalence differences and biases that may exist with data collected from clinic-based MSM and IDU. The prevalence of MSSA and MRSA nasal colonization did not differ significantly with respect to HIV status among NHBS-MSM3/NHBS-IDU3 participants. Continued examination on the effects of S. aureus colonization and infection should be examined longitudinally to confirm additional community-based determinants in populations that are disproportionately affected.^

Optimal, minimax, and Bayesian two-stage designs in two-dose phase II clinical trials

Background: For most cytotoxic and biologic anti-cancer agents, the response rate of the drug is commonly assumed to be non-decreasing with an increasing dose. However, an increasing dose does not always result in an appreciable increase in the response rate. This may especially be true at high doses for a biologic agent. Therefore, in a phase II trial the investigators may be interested in testing the anti-tumor activity of a drug at more than one (often two) doses, instead of only at the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). This way, when the lower dose appears equally effective, this dose can be recommended for further confirmatory testing in a phase III trial under potential long-term toxicity and cost considerations. A common approach to designing such a phase II trial has been to use an independent (e.g., Simon's two-stage) design at each dose ignoring the prior knowledge about the ordering of the response probabilities at the different doses. However, failure to account for this ordering constraint in estimating the response probabilities may result in an inefficient design. In this dissertation, we developed extensions of Simon's optimal and minimax two-stage designs, including both frequentist and Bayesian methods, for two doses that assume ordered response rates between doses. ^ Methods: Optimal and minimax two-stage designs are proposed for phase II clinical trials in settings where the true response rates at two dose levels are ordered. We borrow strength between doses using isotonic regression and control the joint and/or marginal error probabilities. Bayesian two-stage designs are also proposed under a stochastic ordering constraint. ^ Results: Compared to Simon's designs, when controlling the power and type I error at the same levels, the proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs reduce the maximum and expected sample sizes. Most of the proposed designs also increase the probability of early termination when the true response rates are poor. ^ Conclusion: Proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs are superior to Simon's designs in terms of operating characteristics (expected sample size and probability of early termination, when the response rates are poor) Thus, the proposed designs lead to more cost-efficient and ethical trials, and may consequently improve and expedite the drug discovery process. The proposed designs may be extended to designs of multiple group trials and drug combination trials.^

Azithromycin efficacy in treatment of Chlamydia trachomatis

Adolescents 15 – 19 years of age have the highest prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis out of any age group, reaching 28.3% among detained youth [1]. The 2010 Center for Disease Control guidelines recommend one dose of azithromycin for the treatment of uncomplicated chlamydia infections based on 97% cure rate with azithromycin. Recent studies found an 8% or higher failure rate of azithromycin treatment in adolescents [2-5]. We conducted a prospective study beginning May, 2012 in the Harris County Juvenile Justice Center (HCJJC) medical department. Study subjects were detainees with positive urine NAAT tests for chlamydia on intake. We provided treatment with Azithromycin, completed questionnaires assessing risk factors and performed a test of cure for chlamydia three weeks after successful treatment. Those with treatment failure (positive TOC) received doxycycline for seven days. The preliminary results summarized herein are based on data collected from May 2012 to January 2013. Of the 97 youth enrolled in the study to date, 4 (4.1%) experienced treatment failure after administration of Azithromycin. Of these four patients, all were male, African-American and asymptomatic at the time of initial diagnosis and treatment. Of note, 37 (38%) patients in the cohort complained of abdominal pain with administration of Azithromycin. Results to date suggest that the efficacy of Azithromycin in our study is higher than the recent reported studies indicating a possible upper bound of Azithromycin. These results are preliminary and recruitment will continue until a sample size of 127 youth is reached.^

Assessing the patterns of colorectal cancer treatment, adherence to treatment guidelines and survival in Texas

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third leading cancer in both incidence and mortality in Texas. This study investigated the adherence of CRC treatment to standard treatment guidelines and the association between standard treatment and CRC survival in Texas. The author used Texas Cancer Registry (TCR) and Medicare linked data to study the CRC treatment patterns and factors associated with standard treatment in patients who were more than 65 years old and were diagnosed in 2001 through 2007. We also determined whether adherence to standard treatment affect patients' survival. Multiple logistic regression and Cox regression analysis were used to analyze our data. Both regression models are adjusted for demographic characteristics and tumor characteristics. We found that for the 3977 regional colon cancer patients 80 years old or younger, 60.2% of them received chemotherapy, in adherence to the recommended treatment guidelines. People with younger age, female gender, higher education and lower comorbidity score are more likely adherent to this surgery guideline. Patients' adherence to chemotherapy in this cohort have better survival compared to those who are not (HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.68-0.84). For the 12709 colon cancer patients treated with surgery, 49.3% have more than 12 lymph nodes removed, in adherence to the treatment guidelines. People with younger age, female gender, higher education, regional stage, lager tumor size and lower comorbidity score are more likely to adherent to this surgery guideline. Patients with more than 12 lymph nodes removed in this cohort have better survival (HR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.82-0.91). For the 1211 regional rectal cancer patients 80 years old or younger, 63.2% of them were adherent to radiation treatment. People with smaller tumor size and lower comorbidity score are more likely to adherent to this radiation guideline. There is no significant survival difference between radiation adherent patients and non-adherent patients (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.82-1.29). For the 1122 regional rectal cancer patients 80 years old or younger who were treated with surgery, 76.0% of them received postoperative chemotherapy, in adherence to the treatment guidelines. People with younger age and smaller comorbidity score are related with higher adherence rate. Patients adherent with adjuvant chemotherapy in this cohort have better survival than those were not adherent (HR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.45-0.79).^

Weight-for-age percentile and its association to community acquired methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus among pediatric patients in Houston, TX

BACKGROUND: Weight has been implicated as a risk factor for symptomatic community-acquired methicillin resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (CA-MRSA). Information from Texas Children's Hospital (TCH) in Houston, TX was used to implement a case-control study to assess weight-for-age percentile (WFA), race and seasonal exposure as risk factors. ^ METHODS: A retrospective chart review to collect data from TCH was conducted covering the time period January 1st, 2008 to May 31st, 2011. Cases were confirmed and identified by the infectious disease department and were matched on a 1:1 ratio to controls that were seen by the emergency department for non-infected fractures from June 1st, 2008 to May 31st, 2011. Data abstraction was performed using TCH's electronic medical records (EMR) system (EPIC ®). ^ RESULTS: Of 702 CA-MRSA identified cases, ages 9 to 16.99, 564 (80.3%) had the variable `weight' present in their EMR, were not duplicates and not determined to be outliers. Cases were randomly matched to a pool of available controls (n=1864) according to age and gender, yielding 539 1:1 matched pairs (95.5% case matching success) with a total study sample size, N=1078. Case median age was 13.38 years with the majority being White (66.05%) and male (59.4%). Adjusted conditional logistic regression analysis of the matched pairs identified the following risk factors to presenting with CA-MRSA infection among pediatric patients, ages 9 to 16.99 years: a) Individual weight in the highest (75th-99.9th) WFA quartile (OR=1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.06-1.74; P= 0.016), b) Infection during summer months (OR: 1.69; 95% CI=1.2-2.38; P= 0.003), c) patients of African American race/ethnicity (OR= 1.48; 95% CI=1.13-1.95; P= 0.004). ^ CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric patients, 9 to 16.99 years of age, in the highest WFA quartile (75th-99.9th), or of African-American race had an associated increased risk of presenting with CA-MRSA infection. Furthermore, children in this population were at a higher risk of contracting CA-MRSA infection during the summer season.^

Age -period -cohort analysis: An extension of Cox's lifetable regression with time -dependent covariates

It is well known that an identification problem exists in the analysis of age-period-cohort data because of the relationship among the three factors (date of birth + age at death = date of death). There are numerous suggestions about how to analyze the data. No one solution has been satisfactory. The purpose of this study is to provide another analytic method by extending the Cox's lifetable regression model with time-dependent covariates. The new approach contains the following features: (1) It is based on the conditional maximum likelihood procedure using a proportional hazard function described by Cox (1972), treating the age factor as the underlying hazard to estimate the parameters for the cohort and period factors. (2) The model is flexible so that both the cohort and period factors can be treated as dummy or continuous variables, and the parameter estimations can be obtained for numerous combinations of variables as in a regression analysis. (3) The model is applicable even when the time period is unequally spaced.^ Two specific models are considered to illustrate the new approach and applied to the U.S. prostate cancer data. We find that there are significant differences between all cohorts and there is a significant period effect for both whites and nonwhites. The underlying hazard increases exponentially with age indicating that old people have much higher risk than young people. A log transformation of relative risk shows that the prostate cancer risk declined in recent cohorts for both models. However, prostate cancer risk declined 5 cohorts (25 years) earlier for whites than for nonwhites under the period factor model (0 0 0 1 1 1 1). These latter results are similar to the previous study by Holford (1983).^ The new approach offers a general method to analyze the age-period-cohort data without using any arbitrary constraint in the model. ^

Estrogen induced desensitization of c -{\it fos\/} messenger RNA expression {\it in vivo\/}

In this thesis, we investigated the regulation of the nuclear proto-oncogene, c-fos by estrogen in vivo. In the uterus, estrogen causes a rapid, dramatic and transient induction of c-fos mRNA and this occurs by transcriptional activation. We have discovered a previously unrecognized regulatory mechanism by which fos becomes desensitized to estrogen following the transient induction. We investigated three aspects of this desensitization: (1) the kinetics and general characteristics of the phenomenon; (2) the molecular mechanism of the desensitization; and (3) the relationship of desensitization to estrogen stimulated DNA synthesis. The desensitization occurs between 3-24 hours after initial hormonal stimulation and is reversible within 72 hours. The desensitization is not species specific, in that it occurs in both the rat and mouse. The desensitization also occurs in at least two estrogen responsive tissues, the uterus and vagina. The desensitization is not unique to c-fos, since both c-myc and c-jun show similar patterns of desensitization. However, the desensitization is not observed with creatine kinase B (CKB), indicating that not all estrogen inducible genes become desensitized. In the second general area, we determined the desensitization is at the transcriptional level. The desensitization is homologous, but not heterologous, since estrogen induction does not desensitize c-fos to other agents. Other studies show that the desensitization is not due to the lack of functional estrogen receptors. Taken together, these findings suggest that the desensitization occurs at the level of the estrogen responsive element. In the third major area, we demonstrated that the desensitization appears to be related to estrogen induced DNA synthesis. Support for this suggestion comes from the observation that short acting estrogens which induce fos, but not DNA synthesis, do not produce desensitization. ^