Maximal exercise hemodynamics and risk of mortality in apparently healthy men and women

The use of exercise electrocardiography (ECG) to detect latent coronary heart disease (CHD) is discouraged in apparently healthy populations because of low sensitivity. These recommendations however, are based on the efficacy of evaluation of ischemia (ST segment changes) with little regard for other measures of cardiac function that are available during exertion. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the association of maximal exercise hemodynamic responses with risk of mortality due to all-causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and coronary heart disease (CHD) in apparently healthy individuals. Study participants were 20,387 men (mean age = 42.2 years) and 6,234 women (mean age = 41.9 years) patients of a preventive medicine center in Dallas, TX examined between 1971 and 1989. During an average of 8.1 years of follow-up, there were 348 deaths in men and 66 deaths in women. In men, age-adjusted all-cause death rates (per 10,000 person years) across quartiles of maximal systolic blood pressure (SBP) (low to high) were: 18.2, 16.2, 23.8, and 24.6 (p for trend $<$0.001). Corresponding rates for maximal heart rate were: 28.9, 15.9, 18.4, and 15.1 (p trend $<$0.001). After adjustment for confounding variables including age, resting systolic pressure, serum cholesterol and glucose, body mass index, smoking status, physical fitness and family history of CVD, risks (and 95% confidence interval (CI)) of all-cause mortality for quartiles of maximal SBP, relative to the lowest quartile, were: 0.96 (0.70-1.33), 1.36 (1.01-1.85), and 1.37 (0.98-1.92) for quartiles 2-4 respectively. Similar risks for maximal heart rate were: 0.61 (0.44-0.85), 0.69 (0.51-0.93), and 0.60 (0.41-0.87). No associations were noted between maximal exercise rate-pressure product mortality. Similar results were seen for risk of CVD and CHD death. In women, similar trends in age-adjusted all-cause and CVD death rates across maximal SBP and heart rate categories were observed. Sensitivity of the exercise test in predicting mortality was enhanced when ECG results were evaluated together with maximal exercise SBP or heart rate with a concomitant decrease in specificity. Positive predictive values were not improved. The efficacy of the exercise test in predicting mortality in apparently healthy men and women was not enhanced by using maximal exercise hemodynamic responses. These results suggest that an exaggerated systolic blood pressure or an attenuated heart rate response to maximal exercise are risk factors for mortality in apparently healthy individuals. ^

The use of the computerized and revised vital record in conducting etiologic studies on neural tube defects

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the adequacy of computerized vital records in Texas for conducting etiologic studies on neural tube defects (NTDs), using the revised and expanded National Centers for Health Statistics vital record forms introduced in Texas in 1989.^ Cases of NTDs (anencephaly and spina bifida) among Harris County (Houston) residents were identified from the computerized birth and death records for 1989-1991. The validity of the system was then measured against cases ascertained independently through medical records and death certificates. The computerized system performed poorly in its identification of NTDs, particularly for anencephaly, where the false positive rate was 80% with little or no improvement over the 3-year period. For both NTDs the sensitivity and predictive value positive of the tapes were somewhat higher for Hispanic than non-Hispanic mothers.^ Case control studies were conducted utilizing the tape set and the independently verified data set, using controls selected from the live birth tapes. Findings varied widely between the data sets. For example, the anencephaly odds ratio for Hispanic mothers (vs. non-Hispanic) was 1.91 (CI = 1.38-2.65) for the tape file, but 3.18 (CI = 1.81-5.58) for verified records. The odds ratio for diabetes was elevated for the tape set (OR = 3.33, CI = 1.67-6.66) but not for verified cases (OR = 1.09, CI = 0.24-4.96), among whom few mothers were diabetic. It was concluded that computerized tapes should not be solely relied on for NTD studies.^ Using the verified cases, Hispanic mother was associated with spina bifida, and Hispanic mother, teen mother, and previous pregnancy terminations were associated with anencephaly. Mother's birthplace, education, parity, and diabetes were not significant for either NTD.^ Stratified analyses revealed several notable examples of statistical interaction. For anencephaly, strong interaction was observed between Hispanic origin and trimester of first prenatal care.^ The prevalence was 3.8 per 10,000 live births for anencephaly and 2.0 for spina bifida (5.8 per 10,000 births for the combined categories). ^

Genetic epidemiology of gallbladder disease in Mexican Americans and cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase gene sequence variation

Among Mexican Americans, the second largest minority group in the United States, the prevalence of gallbladder disease is markedly elevated. Previous data from both genetic admixture and family studies indicate that there is a genetic component to the occurrence of gallbladder disease in Mexican Americans. However, prior to this thesis no formal genetic analysis of gallbladder disease had been carried out nor had any contributing genes been identified.^ The results of complex segregation analysis in a sample of 232 Mexican American pedigrees documented the existence of a major gene having two alleles with age- and gender-specific effects influencing the occurrence of gallbladder disease. The estimated frequency of the allele increasing susceptibility was 0.39. The lifetime probabilities that an individual will be affected by gallbladder disease were 1.0, 0.54, and 0.00 for females of genotypes "AA", "Aa", and "aa", respectively, and 0.68, 0.30, and 0.00 for males, respectively. This analysis provided the first conclusive evidence for the existence of a common single gene having a large effect on the occurrence of gallbladder disease.^ Human cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase is the rate-limiting enzyme in bile acid synthesis. The results of an association study in both a random sample and a matched case/control sample showed that there is a significant association between cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase gene variation and the occurrence of gallbladder disease in Mexican Americans males but not in females. These data have implicated a specific gene, 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase, in the etiology of gallbladder disease in this population.^ Finally, I asked whether the inferred major gene from complex segregation analysis is genetically linked to the cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase gene. Three pedigrees predicted to be informative for linkage analysis by virtue of supporting the major gene hypothesis and having parents with informative genotypes and multiple offspring were selected for this linkage analysis. In each of these pedigrees, the recombination fractions maximized at 0 with a positive, albeit low, LOD score. The results of this linkage analysis provide preliminary and suggestive evidence that the cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase gene and the inferred gallbladder disease susceptibility gene are genetically linked. ^

Genetic epidemiologic methods in risk determination in Li-Fraumeni syndrome

Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) is characterized by a variety of neoplasms occurring at a young age with an apparent autosomal dominant transmission. Individuals in pedigrees with LFS have high incidence of second malignancies. Recently LFS has been found to be associated with germline mutations of a tumor-suppressor gene, p53. Because LFS is rare and indeed not a clear-cut disease, it is not known whether all cases of LFS are attributable to p53 germline mutations and how p53 plays in cancer occurrence in such cancer syndrome families. In the present study, DNAs from constitutive cells of two-hundred and thirty-three family members from ten extended pedigrees were screened for p53 mutations. Six out of the ten LFS families had germline mutations at the p53 locus, including point and deletion mutations. In these six families, 55 out of 146 members were carriers of p53 mutations. Except one, all mutations occurred in exons 5 to 8 (i.e., the "hot spot" region) of the p53 gene. The age-specific penetrance of cancer was estimated after the genotype for each family member at risk was determined. The penetrance was 0.15, 0.29, 0.35, 0.77, and 0.91 by 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 year-old, respectively, in male carriers; 0.19, 0.44, 0.76, and 0.90 by 20, 30, 40, and 50 year-old, respectively, in female carriers. These results indicated that one cannot escape from tumorigenesis if one inherits a p53 mutant allele; at least ninety percent of p53 carriers will develop cancer by the age of 60. To evaluate the possible bias due to the unexamined blood-relatives in LFS families, I performed a simulation analysis in which a p53 genotype was assigned to each unexamined person based on his cancer status and liability to cancer. The results showed that the penetrance estimates were not biased by the unexamined relatives. I also determined the sex, site, and age-specific penetrance of breast cancer in female carriers and lung cancer in male carriers. The penetrance of breast cancer in female carriers was 0.81 by age 45; the penetrance of lung cancer in male carriers was 0.78 by age 60, indicating that p53 play a key role for tumorigenesis in common cancers. ^

Regulation of squamous cell differentiation in human head and neck carcinoma cells by retinoids

Retinoids have been found to be effective in the prevention of premalignant lesions and second primary cancers in the upper aerodigestive tract. Further development of retinoids for prevention and therapy of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) requires a better understanding of their mechanism of action on the growth and differentiation of such cells. I have chosen to employ cultured HNSCC cell lines as a model system for investigating the mechanism underlying the effects of retinoids. These cells are useful because all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) inhibits their proliferation. Furthermore, two HNSCC cell lines were found to express three squamous differentiation (SqD) markers characteristic of normal keratinocytes and ATRA suppressed the expression of these markers as reported for normal keratinocytes. It is thought that nuclear retinoic acid receptors (RARs and RXRs), which act as DNA-binding transcription modulating factors, mediate the effects of retinoids on the growth and differentiation of normal and tumor cells. I found that all four cell lines examined expressed RAR-$\alpha ,$ RAR-$\tau ,$ and RXR-$\alpha$ and three of four expressed RAR-$\beta .$ ATRA treatment increased the level of RAR-$\alpha ,$ -$\beta ,$ and -$\tau$ in four cell lines. Two HNSCC cell lines that exhibited a progressive increase in the expression of SqD markers during growth in culture also showed a concurrent decrease in RAR-$\beta$ level. Moreover, increasing concentrations of RA suppressed the SqD marker while inducing RAR-$\beta$ mRNA. Several synthetic retinoids which exhibit a preference for binding to specific nuclear RARs showed a differential ability to inhibit cell proliferation, transactivate transcription of the reporter genes (CAT and luciferase) from the RA response element (RARE) of the RAR-$\beta$ gene, and induce RAR-$\beta$ expression. Those retinoids that were effective inducers of RAR-$\beta$ also suppressed SqD effectively, indicating an inverse relationship exists between the expression of RAR-$\beta$ and SqD. This inverse relationship suggests a role for RAR-$\beta$ in the suppression of SqD. ^

Genetic susceptibility, cigarette smoking, and wood dust exposure in lung cancer: Case control analyses

This case control study was conducted to assess the association between lung cancer risk, mutagen sensitivity (a marker of cancer susceptibility), and a putative lung carcinogen, wood dust exposure. There were 165 cases (98 African-Americans, 67 Mexican-Americans) with newly diagnosed, previously untreated lung cancer, and 239 controls, frequency-matched on age, sex, and ethnicity.^ Mutagen sensitivity ($\ge$1 break/cell) was associated with a statistically significant elevated risk for lung cancer (odds ratio (OR) = 4.1, 95% confidence limits (CL) = 2.3,7.2). Wood dust exposure was also a significant predictor of risk (OR = 2.8, 95% CL = 1.2,6.6) after controlling for smoking and mutagen sensitivity. When stratified by ethnicity, wood dust exposure was a significant risk factor for African-Americans (OR = 4.0, 95% CL = 1.4,11.5), but not for Mexican-Americans (OR = 1.5, 95% CL = 0.3,7.1). Stratified analysis suggested a greater than multiplicative interaction between wood dust exposure and both mutagen sensitivity and smoking.^ The cases had significantly more breaks on chromosomes 4 and 5 than the controls did with ORs of 4.9 (95% CL = 2.0, 11.7) and 3.9 (95% CL = 1.6, 9.3), respectively. Breaks at 4p14, 4q27, 4q31, 5q21-22, 5q31, and 5q33 were significantly more common in lung cancer patients than in controls. Lung cancer risk had a dose-response relationship with breaks on chromosomes 4 and 5. Cigarette smoking had a strong interaction with breaks on chromosomes 2, 4, and 5.^ In a molecular cytogenetic study, using chromosome painting and G-banding, we showed that: (1) the proportion of chromosome 5 abnormalities surviving as chromosome-type aberrations remained significantly higher in cells of lung cancer cases (14%) than in controls (5%) (P $<$ 0.001). However, no significant differences were detected in chromosome 4 abnormalities between cases and controls; (2) the proportion of chromosome 5q13-22 abnormalities was 5.3% in the cases and 0.7% in the controls (P $<$ 0.001). 5q13-22 regions represented 40% of all abnormalities on chromosome 5 in the cases and only 14% in the controls.^ This study suggests that mutagen sensitivity, wood dust exposure, and cigarette smoking were independent risk factors for lung cancer, and the susceptibility of particular chromosome loci to mutagenic damage may be a genetic marker for specific types of lung cancer. ^

Studies of the expression of DNA repair related genes

This dissertation examines the biological functions and the regulation of expression of DNA ligase I by studying its expression under different conditions.^ The gene expression of DNA ligase I was induced two- to four-fold in S-phase lymphoblastoid cells but was decreased to 15% of control after administration of a DNA damaging agent, 4-nitroquinoline-1-oxide. When cells were induced into differentiation, the expression level of DNA ligase I was decreased to less than 15% of that of the control cells. When the gene of DNA ligase I was examined for tissue specific expression in adult rats, high levels of DNA ligase I mRNA were observed in testis (8-fold), intermediate levels in ovary and brain (4-fold), and low levels were found in intestine, spleen, and liver (1- to 2-fold).^ In confluent cells of normal skin fibroblasts, UV irradiation induced the gene expression of DNA ligase I at 24 and 48 h. The induction of DNA ligase I gene expression requires active p53 protein. Introducing a vector containing the wild type p53 protein in the cells caused an induction of the DNA ligase I protein 24 h after the treatment.^ Our results indicate that, in addition to the regulation by phosphorylation/dephosphorylation, cellular DNA ligase I activity can be regulated at the gene transcription level, and the p53 tumor suppresser is one of the transcription factors for the DNA ligase I gene. Also, our results suggest that DNA ligase I is involved in DNA repair as well as in DNA replication.^ Also, as an early attempt to clone the human homolog of the yeast CDC9 gene which has been shown to be involved in DNA replication, DNA repair, and DNA recombination, we have identified a human gene with mRNA of 1.7 kb. This dissertation studies the gene regulation and the possible biological functions of this new human gene by examining its expression at different stages of the cell cycle, during cell differentiation, and in cellular response to DNA damage.^ The new gene that we recently identified from human cells is highly expressed in brain and reproductive organs (BRE). This BRE gene encodes an mRNA of 1.7-1.9 kb, with an open reading frame of 1,149 bp, and gives rise to a deduced polypeptide of 383 amino acid residues. No extensive homology was found between BRE and sequences from the EMBL-Gene Banks. BRE showed tissue-specific expression in adult rats. The steady state mRNA levels were high in testis (5-6 fold), ovary and brain (3-4 fold) compared to the spleen level, but low in intestine and liver (1-2 fold). The expression of this gene is responsive to DNA damage and/or retinoic acid (RA) treatment. Treatment of fibroblast cells with UV irradiation and 4-nitroquinoline-1-oxide caused more than 90% and 50% decreases in BRE mRNA, respectively. Similar decreases in BRE expression were observed after treatment of the brain glioma cell line U-251 and the promyelocytic cell line HL-60 with retinoic acid. (Abstract shortened by UMI). ^

Natural history of placebo treatment in adults acquiring travelers' diarrhea in Mexico

The natural history of placebo treated travelers' diarrhea and the prognostic factors of recovery from diarrhea were evaluated using 9 groups of placebo treated subjects from 9 clinical trial studies conducted since 1975, for use as a historical control in the future clinical trial of antidiarrheal agents. All of these studies were done by the same group of investigators in one site (Guadalajara, Mexico). The studies are similar in terms of population, measured parameters, microbiologic identification of enteropathogens and definitions of parameters. The studies had two different durations of followup. In some studies, subjects were followed for two days, and in some they were followed for five days.^ Using definitions established by the Infectious Diseases society of America and the Food and Drug Administration, the following efficacy parameters were evaluated: Time to last unformed stool (TLUS), number of unformed stools post-initiation of placebo treatment for five consecutive days of followup, microbiologic cure, and improvement of diarrhea. Among the groups that were followed for five days, the mean TLUS ranged from 59.1 to 83.5 hours. Fifty percent to 78% had diarrhea lasting more than 48 hours and 25% had diarrhea more than five days. The mean number of unformed stools passed on the first day post-initiation of therapy ranged from 3.6 to 5.8 and, for the fifth day ranged from 0.5 to 1.5. By the end of followup, diarrhea improved in 82.6% to 90% of the subjects. Subjects with enterotoxigenic E. coli had 21.6% to 90.0% microbiologic cure; and subjects with shigella species experienced 14.3% to 60.0% microbiologic cure.^ In evaluating the prognostic factors of recovery from diarrhea (primary efficacy parameter in evaluating the efficacy of antidiarrheal agents against travelers' diarrhea). The subjects from five studies were pooled and the Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the predictors of prolonged diarrhea. After adjusting for design characteristics of each trial, fever with a rate ratio (RR) of 0.40, presence of invasive pathogens with a RR of 0.41, presence of severe abdominal pain and cramps with a RR of 0.50, number of watery stools more than five with a RR of 0.60, and presence of non-invasive pathogens with a RR of 0.84 predicted a longer duration of diarrhea. Severe vomiting with a RR of 2.53 predicted a shorter duration of diarrhea. The number of soft stools, presence of fecal leukocytes, presence of nausea, and duration of diarrhea before enrollment were not associated with duration of diarrhea. ^

DIAGNOSTIC ANTIGENS FOR SCHISTOSOMIASIS MANSONI: PRODUCTION, CHARACTERIZATION AND PURIFICATION OF MONOCLONAL ANTIBODIES, AND AFFINITY PURIFICATION OF ANTIGENS

Attempts have been made in this dissertation to develop a purified antigen with high sensitivity and specificity for diagnosis of Schistosoma mansoni (Sm) infection by using the hybridoma technique.^ Spleen cells, obtained from mice immunized by infection with Sm and boosted by cercarial antigens, or by injection of circulating antigen (CA) in serum from infected mice, were fused with Sp2/0 myeloma cells. The active infection resulted a higher number of hybridomas (100%) than by CA (20%), and higher levels of antibody reactivity as measured by ELISA.^ The IgM and IgG monoclonal antibodies (MCAbs) were purified respectively by gel filtration, DE 52 ion exchange column and proteinase A affinity column. The cercarial and egg antigens were purified by affinity chromatography through MCAb/affi-gel column. The reactivity of the purified antigens were then monitored by ELISA, SDS-PAGE silver stain and EITB.^ The respective MCAbs recognized varying antigenic determinants (AD) present in adult, cercaria and egg stages. By EITB the MCAbs IgM and IgG, when reacted with nine antigens from the various stages, revealed identical bands, suggesting that the two MCAb classes originated from identical AD. By ELISA and COPT, the MCAbs from thirteen cell lines gave same results. But by CHR, two MCAbs showed negative results while eleven other MCAbs showed strong positive. It is assumed that the AD in the immunogen that ilicited the MCAbs were immunochemically closely related.^ One egg purified by immunoaffinity indicated that the epitopes recognized by MCAb were present on four antigenic components with molecular weights (Mr) of approximately 19, 25, 60 and >224 kd, respectively. By EITB the Mr 19 doublet appeared to be species specific; the Mr 25 kd genus specific. They reacted with mouse serum from 13-16 weeks after infection. In monkey serum Mr 19 doublet appeared 8-10 weeks after infection and disappeared at 8-12 weeks after Droncit treatment, paralleled to the disappearance of fecal egg. The Mr 60 and >224 kd bands were also demonstrated with S. japonicum, S. haematobium and Trichinella spiralis infection sera and may be the cause of cross-reaction in conventional serological test. ^

DETECTION OF MALARIAL SPOROZOITES BY THE ENZYME LINKED IMMUNOSORBENT ASSAY (ELISA)

Detection of malarial sporozoites by a double antibody sandwich enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) is described. This investigation utilized the Anopheles stephensi-Plasmodium berghei malaria model for the generation of sporozoites. Anti-sporozoite antibody was obtained from the sera of rats which had been bitten by An. stephensi with salivary gland sporozoites. Mosquitoes were irradiated prior to feeding on the rats to render the sporozoites non-viable.^ The assay employed microtiter plates coated with their rat anti-sporozoite antiserum or rat anti-sporozoite IgG. Intact and sonicated sporozoites were used as antigens. Initially, sporozoites were detected by an ELISA using staphylococcal protein A conjugated with alkaline phosphatase. Sporozoites were also detected using alkaline phosphatase or horseradish peroxidase conjugated to anti-sporozoite IgG. Best results were obtained using the alkaline phosphatase conjugate.^ This investigation included the titration of antigen, coating antibody and labelled antibody as well as studies of various incubation times. A radioimmunoassay (RIA) was also developed and compared with the ELISA for detecting sporozoites. Finally, the detection of a single infected mosquito in pools of 5 to 10 whole, uninfested ones was studied using both ELISA and RIA.^ Sonicated sporozoites were more readily detected than intact sporozoites. The lower limit of detection was approximately 500 sporozoites per ml. Results using ELISA or RIA were similar. The ability of the ELISA to detect a single infected mosquito in a pool of uninfected ones indicates that this technique has potential use in entomological field studies which aim at determining the vector status of anopheline mosquitoes. The potential of the ELISA for identifying sporozoites of different species of malaria is discussed. ^

TRANSOVARIAL TRANSMISSION OF YELLOW FEVER VIRUS BY A SYLVATIC VECTOR, HAEMAGOGUS EQUINUS (THEOBALD)

The potential of a sylvatic vector to act as reservoir of yellow fever virus was assessed in Haemagogus equinus (Theobald). Mosquitoes from the Maje'75 laboratory colony and a Panamanian human isolated strain of yellow fever virus were used. Female mosquitoes infected with yellow fever virus had a minimum transovarial transmission rate of 1:5745. This is the first time transovarial transmission of yellow fever virus has been demonstrated in a New World sylvatic vector. Transovarial transmission of yellow fever virus in this sylvatic mosquito species may be an alternative mechanism for biological survival of the virus during adverse periods or in the absence of susceptible vertebrate hosts. ^

Biomarker circadian rhythm profiles in critically ill mechanically ventilated patients

Objective: To explore the natural trajectory of core body temperature (CBT) and cortisol (CORT) circadian rhythms in mechanically ventilated intensive care unit (MV ICU) patients. ^ Design: Prospective, observational, time-series pilot study. ^ Setting: Medical-surgical and pulmonary ICUs in a tertiary care hospital. ^ Sample: Nine (F = 3, M = 6) adults who were mechanically ventilated within 12 hrs of ICU admission with mean ± SD age of 65.2 ± 14 years old. ^ Measurements: Core body temperature and environmental measures of light, sound, temperature, and relative humidity were logged in 1-min intervals. Hourly urine specimens and 2-hr interval blood specimens were collected for up to 7 consecutive days for CORT assay. Mechanical ventilation days, ICU length of stay, and ICU mortality were documented. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores were computed for each study day. The data of each biologic and environmental variable were analyzed using single cosinor analysis of 24-hr serial segments. One patient did not complete the study because mortality occurred within 8 hrs of enrollment. Nine ICU patients completed the study in 1.6 to 7.0 days. ^ Results: No normal circadian rhythm pattern was found when the cosinor-derived parameters of amplitude (one-half the peak-trough variability) and acrophase (peak time) were compared with cosinor-derived parameter reference ranges of healthy, diurnally active humans, although 83% of patient-day CBT segments showed statistically significant (p ≤ .05) and biologically meaningful (R2≥ 0.30) 24-hr rhythms with abnormal cosinor parameters. Cosinor parameters of the environmental temporal profiles showed 27% of light, 76% of ambient temperature, and 78% of relative humidity serial segments had a significant and meaningful 24-hr diurnal pattern. Average daily light intensity varied from 34 to 187 lx with a maximum light exposure of 1877 lx. No sound measurement segment had a statistically significant cosine pattern, and numerous 1-minute interval peaks ≥ 60 dB occurred around the clock. Average daily ambient temperature and relative humidity varied from 19 to 24°C and from 25% to 61%, respectively. There was no statistically significant association between CBT or clinical outcomes and cosinor-derived parameters of the environmental variables. Circadian rhythms of urine and plasma CORT were deferred for later analysis. ^ Conclusions: The natural trajectory of the CBT circadian rhythm in MV ICU patients demonstrated persistent cosinor parameter alteration, even when a significant and meaningful 24-hr rhythm was present. The ICU environmental measures showed erratic light and sound exposures. Room temperature and relative humidity data produced the highest rate of significant and meaningful diurnal 24-hr patterns. Additional research is needed to clarify relations among the CBT biomarker of the circadian clock and environmental variables of MV ICU patients. ^

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

Genetic variants in the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signaling pathway as predictors of survival and clinical response in women with ovarian cancer

Background. The mTOR pathway is commonly altered in human tumors and promotes cell survival and proliferation. Preliminary evidence suggests this pathway's involvement in chemoresistance to platinum and taxanes, first line therapy for epithelial ovarian cancer. A pathway-based approach was used to identify individual germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and cumulative effects of multiple genetic variants in mTOR pathway genes and their association with clinical outcome in women with ovarian cancer. ^ Methods. The case-series was restricted to 319 non-Hispanic white women with high grade ovarian cancer treated with surgery and platinum-based chemotherapy. 135 SNPs in 20 representative genes in the mTOR pathway were genotyped. Hazard ratios (HRs) for death and Odds ratios (ORs) for failure to respond to primary therapy were estimated for each SNP using the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model and multivariate logistic regression model, respectively, while adjusting for age, stage, histology and treatment sequence. A survival tree analysis of SNPs with a statistically significant association (p<0.05) was performed to identify higher order gene-gene interactions and their association with overall survival. ^ Results. There was no statistically significant difference in survival by tumor histology or treatment regimen. The median survival for the cohort was 48.3 months. Seven SNPs were significantly associated with decreased survival. Compared to those with no unfavorable genotypes, the HR for death increased significantly with the increasing number of unfavorable genotypes and women in the highest risk category had HR of 4.06 (95% CI 2.29–7.21). The survival tree analysis also identified patients with different survival patterns based on their genetic profiles. 13 SNPs on five different genes were found to be significantly associated with a treatment response, defined as no evidence of disease after completion of primary therapy. Rare homozygous genotype of SNP rs6973428 showed a 5.5-fold increased risk compared to the wild type carrying genotypes. In the cumulative effect analysis, the highest risk group (individuals with ≥8 unfavorable genotypes) was significantly less likely to respond to chemotherapy (OR=8.40, 95% CI 3.10–22.75) compared to the low risk group (≤4 unfavorable genotypes). ^ Conclusions. A pathway-based approach can demonstrate cumulative effects of multiple genetic variants on clinical response to chemotherapy and survival. Therapy targeting the mTOR pathway may modify outcome in select patients.^