Effect of primary care availability and health insurance coverage on risk and cost of Preventable Hospitalizations in Harris County

Preventable Hospitalizations (PHs) are hospitalizations that can be avoided with appropriate and timely care in the ambulatory setting and hence are closely associated with primary care access in a community. Increased primary care availability and health insurance coverage may increase primary care access, and consequently may be significantly associated with risks and costs of PHs. Objective. To estimate the risk and cost of preventable hospitalizations (PHs); to determine the association of primary care availability and health insurance coverage with the risk and costs of PHs, first alone and then simultaneously; and finally, to estimate the impact of expansions in primary care availability and health insurance coverage on the burden of PHs among non-elderly adult residents of Harris County. Methods. The study population was residents of Harris County, age 18 to 64, who had at least one hospital discharge in a Texas hospital in 2008. The primary independent variables were availability of primary care physicians, availability of primary care safety net clinics and health insurance coverage. The primary dependent variables were PHs and associated hospitalization costs. The Texas Health Care Information Collection (THCIC) Inpatient Discharge data was used to obtain information on the number and costs of PHs in the study population. Risk of PHs in the study population, as well as average and total costs of PHs were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression models and two-step Heckman regression models with log-transformed costs were used to determine the association of primary care availability and health insurance coverage with the risk and costs of PHs respectively, while controlling for individual predisposing, enabling and need characteristics. Predicted PH risk and cost were used to calculate the predicted burden of PHs in the study population and the impact of expansions in primary care availability and health insurance coverage on the predicted burden. Results. In 2008, hospitalized non-elderly adults in Harris County had 11,313 PHs and a corresponding PH risk of 8.02%. Congestive heart failure was the most common PH. PHs imposed a total economic burden of $84 billion at an average of $7,449 per PH. Higher primary care safety net availability was significantly associated with the lower risk of PHs in the final risk model, but only in the uninsured. A unit increase in safety net availability led to a 23% decline in PH odds in the uninsured, compared to only a 4% decline in the insured. Higher primary care physician availability was associated with increased PH costs in the final cost model (β=0.0020; p<0.05). Lack of health insurance coverage increased the risk of PH, with the uninsured having 30% higher odds of PHs (OR=1.299; p<0.05), but reduced the cost of a PH by 7% (β=-0.0668; p<0.05). Expansions in primary care availability and health insurance coverage were associated with a reduction of about $1.6 million in PH burden at the highest level of expansion. Conclusions. Availability of primary care resources and health insurance coverage in hospitalized non-elderly adults in Harris County are significantly associated with the risk and costs of PHs. Expansions in these primary care access factors can be expected to produce significant reductions in the burden of PHs in Harris County.^

Genetic Predictors of Clinical Outcomes in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality in the US. Emerging evidence has shown that host genetic factors can interact with environmental exposures to influence patient susceptibility to the diseases as well as clinical outcomes, such as survival and recurrence. We aimed to identify genetic prognostic markers for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), a major (85%) subtype of lung cancer, and also in other subgroups. With the fast evolution of genotyping technology, genetic association studies have went through candidate gene approach, to pathway-based approach, to the genome wide association study (GWAS). Even in the era of GWAS, pathway-based approach has its own advantages on studying cancer clinical outcomes: it is cost-effective, requiring a smaller sample size than GWAS easier to identify a validation population and explore gene-gene interactions. In the current study, we adopted pathway-based approach focusing on two critical pathways - miRNA and inflammation pathways. MicroRNAs (miRNA) post-transcriptionally regulate around 30% of human genes. Polymorphisms within miRNA processing pathways and binding sites may influence patients’ prognosis through altered gene regulation. Inflammation plays an important role in cancer initiation and progression, and also has shown to impact patients’ clinical outcomes. We first evaluated 240 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in miRNA biogenesis genes and predicted binding sites in NSCLC patients to determine associations with clinical outcomes in early-stage (stage I and II) and late-stage (stage III and IV) lung cancer patients, respectively. First, in 535 early-stage patients, after correcting multiple comparisons, FZD4:rs713065 (hazard ratio [HR]:0.46, 95% confidence interval [CI]:0.32-0.65) showed a significant inverse association with survival in early stage surgery-only patients. SP1:rs17695156 (HR:2.22, 95% CI:1.44-3.41) and DROSHA:rs6886834 (HR:6.38, 95% CI:2.49-16.31) conferred increased risk of progression in the all patients and surgery-only populations, respectively. FAS:rs2234978 was significantly associated with improved survival in all patients (HR:0.59, 95% CI:0.44-0.77) and in the surgery plus chemotherapy populations (HR:0.19, 95% CI:0.07-0.46).. Functional genomics analysis demonstrated that this variant creates a miR-651 binding site resulting in altered miRNA regulation of FAS, providing biological plausibility for the observed association. We then analyzed these associations in 598 late-stage patients. After multiple comparison corrections, no SNPs remained significant in the late stage group, while the top SNP NAT1:rs15561 (HR=1.98, 96%CI=1.32-2.94) conferred a significantly increased risk of death in the chemotherapy subgroup. To test the hypothesis that genetic variants in the inflammation-related pathways may be associated with survival in NSCLC patients, we first conducted a three-stage study. In the discovery phase, we investigated a comprehensive panel of 11,930 inflammation-related SNPs in three independent lung cancer populations. A missense SNP (rs2071554) in HLA-DOB was significantly associated with poor survival in the discovery population (HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.02-2.09), internal validation population (HR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.02-2.25), and external validation (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.01-2.29) population. Rs2900420 in KLRK1 was significantly associated with a reduced risk for death in the discovery (HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.60-0.96) and internal validation (HR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.61-0.99) populations, and the association reached borderline significance in the external validation population (HR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.63-1.02). We also evaluated these inflammation-related SNPs in NSCLC patients in never smokers. Lung cancer in never smokers has been increasingly recognized as distinct disease from that in ever-smokers. A two-stage study was performed using a discovery population from MD Anderson (411 patients) and a validation population from Mayo Clinic (311 patients). Three SNPs (IL17RA:rs879576, BMP8A:rs698141, and STK:rs290229) that were significantly associated with survival were validated (pCD74:rs1056400 and CD38:rs10805347) were borderline significant (p=0.08) in the Mayo Clinic population. In the combined analysis, IL17RA:rs879576 resulted in a 40% reduction in the risk for death (p=4.1 × 10-5 [p=0.61, heterogeneity test]). We also validated a survival tree created in MD Anderson population in the Mayo Clinic population. In conclusion, our results provided strong evidence that genetic variations in specific pathways that examined (miRNA and inflammation pathways) influenced clinical outcomes in NSCLC patients, and with further functional studies, the novel loci have potential to be translated into clinical use.

ROLE OF STAT3 IN KERATINOCYTE STEM CELLS DURING SKIN TUMORIGENESIS

STATs play crucial roles in a wide variety of biological functions, including development, proliferation, differentiation, migration and in cancer development. In the present study, we examined the impact of Stat3 deletion or activation on behavior of keratinocytes, including keratinocyte stem cells (KSCs). Deletion of Stat3 specifically in the bulge region of the hair follicle using K15.CrePR1 X Stat3fl/fl mice led to decreased tumor development by altering survival of bulge region KSCs. To further understand the role of KSCs in skin tumorigenesis, K5.Stat3C transgenic (Tg) mice which express a constitutively active/dimerized form of Stat3 called Stat3C via the bovine keratin 5 (K5) promoter were studied. The number of CD34 and α6 integrin positive cells was significantly reduced in Tg mice as compared to non-transgenic (NTg) littermates. There was a concomitant increase in the progenitor populations (Lgr-6, Lrig-1 and Sca-1) in the Tg mice vs. the stem cell population (CD34 and Keratin15). To investigate the mechanism underlying the increase in the progenitor population at the expense of bulge region KSCs we examined if Stat3C expression was involved in inducing migration of the bulge region KSCs. There was altered β-catenin and α6-integrin expression in the hair follicles of Tg mice, which may have contributed to reduced adhesive interactions between the epithelial cells and the basement membrane facilitating migration out of the niche. To further study the effect of Stat3 on differentiation of keratinocytes we analyzed the epidermal keratinocytes in K5.Cre X Stat3fl/fl mice. There was an increase in the expression of epidermal differentiation markers in the Stat3 knockout mice. These data suggest that deletion of Stat3 in the epidermis and hair follicle induced differentiation in these cells. Preliminary studies done with the BK5.Stat3C mouse model suggests that multiple hair follicle stem/progenitor populations may be involved in skin tumor development and progression in this model of skin tumorigenesis. Overall, these data suggest that Stat3 plays an important role in differentiation as well as migration of keratinocytes and that these effects may play a role during epithelial carcinogenesis.

Targeting AKT/mTOR Signaling Pathways During Murine Skin Tumor Promotion and the Impact of Dietary Energy Balance Manipulation

The prevalence of obesity has continued to rise over the last several decades in the United States lending to overall increases in risk for chronic diseases including many types of cancer. In contrast, reduction in energy consumption via calorie restriction (CR) has been shown to be a potent inhibitor of carcinogenesis across a broad range of species and tumor types. Previous data has demonstrated differential signaling through Akt and mTOR via the IGF-1R and other growth factor receptors across the diet-induced obesity (DIO)/CR spectrum. Furthermore, mTORC1 is known to be regulated directly via nutrient availability, supporting its role in the link between epithelial carcinogenesis and diet-induced obesity. In an effort to better understand the importance of mTORC1 in the context of both positive and negative energy balance during epithelial carcinogenesis, we have employed the use of specific pharmacological inhibitors, rapamycin (mTORC1 inhibitor) and metformin (AMPK activator) to target mTORC1 or various components of this pathway during skin tumor promotion. Two-stage skin carcinogenesis studies demonstrated that mTORC1 inhibition via rapamycin, metformin or combination treatments greatly inhibited skin tumor development in normal, overweight and obese mice. Furthermore, mechanisms by which these chemopreventive agents may be exerting their anti-tumor effects were explored. In addition, the effect of these compounds on the epidermal proliferative response was analyzed and drastic decreases in epidermal hyperproliferation and hyperplasia were found. Rapamycin also inhibited dermal inflammatory cell infiltration in a dose-dependent manner. Both compounds also blocked or attenuated TPA-induced signaling through epidermal mTORC1 as well as several downstream targets. In addition, inhibition of this pathway by metformin appeared to be, at least in part, dependent on AMPK activation in the skin. Overall, the data indicate that pharmacological strategies targeting this pathway offset the tumor-enhancing effects of DIO and may serve as possible CR mimetics. They suggest that mTORC1 contributes significantly to the process of skin tumor promotion, specifically during dietary energy balance effects. Exploiting the mechanistic information underlying dietary energy balance responsive pathways will help translate decades of research into effective strategies for prevention of epithelial carcinogenesis.

Adaptive clinical trial design for targeted therapy development

The development of targeted therapy involve many challenges. Our study will address some of the key issues involved in biomarker identification and clinical trial design. In our study, we propose two biomarker selection methods, and then apply them in two different clinical trial designs for targeted therapy development. In particular, we propose a Bayesian two-step lasso procedure for biomarker selection in the proportional hazards model in Chapter 2. In the first step of this strategy, we use the Bayesian group lasso to identify the important marker groups, wherein each group contains the main effect of a single marker and its interactions with treatments. In the second step, we zoom in to select each individual marker and the interactions between markers and treatments in order to identify prognostic or predictive markers using the Bayesian adaptive lasso. In Chapter 3, we propose a Bayesian two-stage adaptive design for targeted therapy development while implementing the variable selection method given in Chapter 2. In Chapter 4, we proposed an alternate frequentist adaptive randomization strategy for situations where a large number of biomarkers need to be incorporated in the study design. We also propose a new adaptive randomization rule, which takes into account the variations associated with the point estimates of survival times. In all of our designs, we seek to identify the key markers that are either prognostic or predictive with respect to treatment. We are going to use extensive simulation to evaluate the operating characteristics of our methods.^

Modulation of cytochrome P450 enzyme activity and PAH -induced skin carcinogenesis by naturally occurring coumarins

The present study was designed to determine the potential anticarcinogenic activity of naturally occurring coumarins and their mechanism of action. The results indicated that several naturally occurring coumarins including bergamottin, coriandrin, imperatorin, isopimpinellin, and ostruthin, to which humans are routinely exposed in the diet, were effective inhibitors and/or inactivators of CYP1A1-mediated ethoxyresorufin-O-dealkylase (EROD) or CYP2B1-mediated pentoxyresorufin-O-dealkylase (PROD) in mouse liver microsomes. In addition, bergamottin and corandrin were also found to be inhibitors of purified human P450 1A1 in vitro. Further studies with coriandrin revealed that this compound was a mechanism-based inactivator of P450 1A1 and covalently bound to the P450 1A1 apoprotein. In cultured mouse keratinocytes, bergamottin and coriandrin effectively inhibited the B(a) P metabolism and significantly decreased covalent binding of B(a) P and DMBA to keratinocyte DNA and anti-diol-epoxide-DNA adducts derived from both B(a) P and DMBA in keratinocytes. The data from in vivo experiments showed that bergamottin and coriandrin were potent inhibitors of covalent binding of B (a) P to epidermal DNA and the formation of (+) anti BPDE-DNA adduct, whereas imperatorin and isopimpinellin were more potent inhibitors of covalent binding of DMBA to epidermal DNA. The ability of coumarins to inhibit covalent binding of B (a) P to DNA in mouse epidermis was positively correlated with their inhibitory effect P450 1A1 in vitro, while the inhibitory effect of coumarins on covalent binding of DMBA to epidermal DNA was positively correlated with their inhibitory effects on P450 2B1 and negatively to their inhibitory activity toward P450 1A1. The data from tumor experiments indicated that bergamottin, ostruthin, and coriandrin inhibited tumor initiation by B (a) P in a two-stage carcinogenesis protocol. Bergamottin was most effective in this regard and produced a dose dependent inhibition of papilloma formation in these experiments. In addition, imperatorin was an effective inhibitor of skin tumorigenesis induced by DMBA in SENCAR mouse skin using both a two-stage and a complete carcinogenesis protocol. At dose levels higher than those effective against DMBA, imperatorin also inhibited tumor initiation by B (a) P. The results to date demonstrate that several naturally occurring coumarins possess the ability to block tumor initiation and tumorigenesis by PAHs such as B (a) P and DMBA through inhibition of the P450s involved in the metabolic activation of these hydrocarbons. A working model for the involvement of specific P450s in the metabolic activation of these two PAHs was proposed. ^

An analysis of two methods for the classification of stage of readiness to obtain repeat mammography screening

Background and purpose: Breast cancer continues to be a health problem for women, representing 28 percent of all female cancers and remaining one of the leading causes of death for women. Breast cancer incidence rates become substantial before the age of 50. After menopause, breast cancer incidence rates continue to increase with age creating a long-lasting source of concern (Harris et al., 1992). Mammography, a technique for the detection of breast tumors in their nonpalpable stage when they are most curable, has taken on considerable importance as a public health measure. The lifetime risk of breast cancer is approximately 1 in 9 and occurs over many decades. Recommendations are that screening be periodic in order to detect cancer at early stages. These recommendations, largely, are not followed. Not only are most women not getting regular mammograms, but this circumstance is particularly the case among older women where regular mammography has been proven to reduce mortality by approximately 30 percent. The purpose of this project was to increase our understanding of factors that are associated with stage of readiness to obtain subsequent mammograms. A secondary purpose of this research was to suggest further conceptual considerations toward the extension of the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) of behavior change to repeat screening mammography. ^ Methods. A sample (n = 1,222) of women 50 years and older in a large multi-specialty clinic in Houston, Texas was surveyed by mail questionnaire regarding their previous screening experience and stage of readiness to obtain repeat screening. A computerized database, maintained on all women who undergo mammography at the clinic, was used to identify women who are eligible for the project. The major statistical technique employed to select the significant variables and to examine the man and interaction effects of independent variables on dependent variables was polychotomous stepwise, logistic regression. A prediction model for each stage of readiness definition was estimated. The expected probabilities for stage of readiness were calculated to assess the magnitude and direction of significant predictors. ^ Results. Analysis showed that both ways of defining stage of readiness for obtaining a screening mammogram were associated with specific constructs, including decisional balance and processes of the change. ^ Conclusions. The results of the present study demonstrate that the TTM appears to translate to repeat mammography screening. Findings in the current study also support finding of previous studies that suggest that stage of readiness is associated with respondent decisional balance and the processes of change. ^

Progressive regression of left ventricular hypertrophy two years after bariatric surgery.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a systemic disorder associated with an increase in left ventricular mass and premature death and disability from cardiovascular disease. Although bariatric surgery reverses many of the hormonal and hemodynamic derangements, the long-term collective effects on body composition and left ventricular mass have not been considered before. We hypothesized that the decrease in fat mass and lean mass after weight loss surgery is associated with a decrease in left ventricular mass. METHODS: Fifteen severely obese women (mean body mass index [BMI]: 46.7+/-1.7 kg/m(2)) with medically controlled hypertension underwent bariatric surgery. Left ventricular mass and plasma markers of systemic metabolism, together with body mass index (BMI), waist and hip circumferences, body composition (fat mass and lean mass), and resting energy expenditure were measured at 0, 3, 9, 12, and 24 months. RESULTS: Left ventricular mass continued to decrease linearly over the entire period of observation, while rates of weight loss, loss of lean mass, loss of fat mass, and resting energy expenditure all plateaued at 9 [corrected] months (P <.001 for all). Parameters of systemic metabolism normalized by 9 months, and showed no further change at 24 months after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Even though parameters of obesity, including BMI and body composition, plateau, the benefits of bariatric surgery on systemic metabolism and left ventricular mass are sustained. We propose that the progressive decrease of left ventricular mass after weight loss surgery is regulated by neurohumoral factors, and may contribute to improved long-term survival.

Evaluation of the causal pathways through which subjective norms influence mammography intention and stage of change in a national sample of women veterans

Few studies have investigated causal pathways linking psychosocial factors to each other and to screening mammography. Conflicting hypotheses exist in the theoretic literature regarding the role and importance of subjective norms, a person's perceived social pressure to perform the behavior and his/her motivation to comply. The Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) hypothesizes that subjective norms directly affect intention; while the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) hypothesizes that attitudes mediate the influence of subjective norms on stage of change. No one has examined which hypothesis best predicts the effect of subjective norms on mammography intention and stage of change. Two statistical methods are available for testing mediation, sequential regression analysis (SRA) and latent variable structural equation modeling (LVSEM); however, software to apply LVSEM to dichotomous variables like intention has only recently become available. No one has compared the methods to determine whether or not they yield similar results for dichotomous variables. ^ Study objectives were to: (1) determine whether the effect of subjective norms on mammography intention and stage of change are mediated by pros and cons; and (2) compare mediation results from the SRA and LVSEM approaches when the outcome is dichotomous. We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a national sample of women veterans enrolled in Project H.O.M.E. (H&barbelow;ealthy O&barbelow;utlook on the M&barbelow;ammography E&barbelow;xperience), a behavioral intervention trial. ^ Results showed that the TTM model described the causal pathways better than the TRA one; however, we found support for only one of the TTM causal mechanisms. Cons was the sole mediator. The mediated effect of subjective norms on intention and stage of change by cons was very small. These findings suggest that interventionists focus their efforts on reducing negative attitudes toward mammography when resources are limited. ^ Both the SRA and LVSEM methods provided evidence for complete mediation, and the direction, magnitude, and standard errors of the parameter estimates were very similar. Because SRA parameter estimates were not biased toward the null, we can probably assume negligible measurement error in the independent and mediator variables. Simulation studies are needed to further our understanding of how these two methods perform under different data conditions. ^

Evaluation of the Hosmer -Lemeshow global goodness -of-fit statistic for mixed variable logistic regression models

The performance of the Hosmer-Lemeshow global goodness-of-fit statistic for logistic regression models was explored in a wide variety of conditions not previously fully investigated. Computer simulations, each consisting of 500 regression models, were run to assess the statistic in 23 different situations. The items which varied among the situations included the number of observations used in each regression, the number of covariates, the degree of dependence among the covariates, the combinations of continuous and discrete variables, and the generation of the values of the dependent variable for model fit or lack of fit.^ The study found that the $\rm\ C$g* statistic was adequate in tests of significance for most situations. However, when testing data which deviate from a logistic model, the statistic has low power to detect such deviation. Although grouping of the estimated probabilities into quantiles from 8 to 30 was studied, the deciles of risk approach was generally sufficient. Subdividing the estimated probabilities into more than 10 quantiles when there are many covariates in the model is not necessary, despite theoretical reasons which suggest otherwise. Because it does not follow a X$\sp2$ distribution, the statistic is not recommended for use in models containing only categorical variables with a limited number of covariate patterns.^ The statistic performed adequately when there were at least 10 observations per quantile. Large numbers of observations per quantile did not lead to incorrect conclusions that the model did not fit the data when it actually did. However, the statistic failed to detect lack of fit when it existed and should be supplemented with further tests for the influence of individual observations. Careful examination of the parameter estimates is also essential since the statistic did not perform as desired when there was moderate to severe collinearity among covariates.^ Two methods studied for handling tied values of the estimated probabilities made only a slight difference in conclusions about model fit. Neither method split observations with identical probabilities into different quantiles. Approaches which create equal size groups by separating ties should be avoided. ^