20 resultados para positive predictive value
Resumo:
Mean corpuscular volume, which is an inexpensive and widely available measure to assess, increases in HIV infected individuals receiving zidovudine and stavudine raising the hypothesis that it could be used as a surrogate for adherence.^ The aim of this study was to examine the association between mean corpuscular volume and adherence to antiretroviral therapy among HIV infected children and adolescents aged 0–19 years in Uganda as well as the extent to which changes in mean corpuscular volume predict adherence as determined by virologic suppression.^ The investigator retrospectively reviewed and analyzed secondary data of 158 HIV infected children and adolescents aged 0–19 years who initiated antiretroviral therapy under an observational cohort at the Baylor College of Medicine Children's Foundation - Uganda. Viral suppression was used as the gold standard for monitoring adherence and defined as viral load of < 400 copies/ml at 24 and 48 weeks. ^ Patients were at least 48 weeks on therapy, age 0.2–18.4 years, 54.4% female, 82.3% on zidovudine based regimen, 92% WHO stage III at initiation of therapy, median pre therapy MCV 80.6 fl (70.3–98.3 fl), median CD4% 10.2% (0.3%–28.0%), and mean pre therapy viral load 407,712.9 ± 270,413.9 copies/ml. For both 24 and 48 weeks of antiretroviral therapy, patients with viral suppression had a greater mean percentage change in mean corpuscular volume (15.1% ± 8.4 vs. 11.1% ± 7.8 and 2.3% ± 13.2 vs. -2.7% ± 10.5 respectively). The mean percentage change in mean corpuscular volume was greater in the first 24 weeks of therapy for patients with and without viral suppression (15.1% ± 8.4 vs. 2.3% ± 13.2 and 11.1% ± 7.8 vs. -2.7% ± 10.5 respectively). In the multivariate logistic regression model, percentage change in mean corpuscular volume ≥ 20% was significantly associated with viral suppression (adjusted OR 4.0; CI 1.2–13.3; p value 0.02). The ability of percentage changes in MCV to correctly identify children and adolescents with viral suppression was higher at a cut off of ≥ 20% (90.7%; sensitivity, 31.7%) than at ≥ 9% (82.9%; sensitivity, 78.9%). Negative predictive value was lower at ≥ 20% change (25%; specificity, 84.8%) than at ≥ 9% change (33.3%; specificity, 39.4%).^ Mean corpuscular volume is a useful marker of adherence among children and adolescents with viral suppression. ^
Resumo:
The use of exercise electrocardiography (ECG) to detect latent coronary heart disease (CHD) is discouraged in apparently healthy populations because of low sensitivity. These recommendations however, are based on the efficacy of evaluation of ischemia (ST segment changes) with little regard for other measures of cardiac function that are available during exertion. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the association of maximal exercise hemodynamic responses with risk of mortality due to all-causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and coronary heart disease (CHD) in apparently healthy individuals. Study participants were 20,387 men (mean age = 42.2 years) and 6,234 women (mean age = 41.9 years) patients of a preventive medicine center in Dallas, TX examined between 1971 and 1989. During an average of 8.1 years of follow-up, there were 348 deaths in men and 66 deaths in women. In men, age-adjusted all-cause death rates (per 10,000 person years) across quartiles of maximal systolic blood pressure (SBP) (low to high) were: 18.2, 16.2, 23.8, and 24.6 (p for trend $<$0.001). Corresponding rates for maximal heart rate were: 28.9, 15.9, 18.4, and 15.1 (p trend $<$0.001). After adjustment for confounding variables including age, resting systolic pressure, serum cholesterol and glucose, body mass index, smoking status, physical fitness and family history of CVD, risks (and 95% confidence interval (CI)) of all-cause mortality for quartiles of maximal SBP, relative to the lowest quartile, were: 0.96 (0.70-1.33), 1.36 (1.01-1.85), and 1.37 (0.98-1.92) for quartiles 2-4 respectively. Similar risks for maximal heart rate were: 0.61 (0.44-0.85), 0.69 (0.51-0.93), and 0.60 (0.41-0.87). No associations were noted between maximal exercise rate-pressure product mortality. Similar results were seen for risk of CVD and CHD death. In women, similar trends in age-adjusted all-cause and CVD death rates across maximal SBP and heart rate categories were observed. Sensitivity of the exercise test in predicting mortality was enhanced when ECG results were evaluated together with maximal exercise SBP or heart rate with a concomitant decrease in specificity. Positive predictive values were not improved. The efficacy of the exercise test in predicting mortality in apparently healthy men and women was not enhanced by using maximal exercise hemodynamic responses. These results suggest that an exaggerated systolic blood pressure or an attenuated heart rate response to maximal exercise are risk factors for mortality in apparently healthy individuals. ^
Resumo:
Nutrient intake and specific food item data from 24-hour dietary recalls were utilized to study the relationship between measures of diet diversity and dietary adequacy in a population of white females of child-bearing age and socioeconomic subgroups of that population. As the basis of the diet diversity measures, twelve food groups were constructed from the 24-hour recall data and the number of unique foods per food group counted and weighted according to specified weighting schemes. Utilizing these food groups, nine diet diversity indices were developed.^ Sensitivity/specificity analysis was used to determine the ability of varying levels of selected diet diversity indices to identify individuals above and below preselected intakes of different nutrients. The true prevalence proportions, sensitivity and specificity, false positive and false negative rates, and positive predictive values observed at the selected levels of diet diversity indices were investigated in relation to the objectives and resources of a variety of nutrition improvement programs. Diet diversity indices constructed from the total population data were evaluated as screening tools for respondent nutrient intakes in each of the socioeconomic subgroups as well.^ The results of the sensitivity/specificity analysis demonstrated that the false positive rate, the false negative rate, or both were too high at each diversity cut-off level to validate the widespread use of any of the diversity indices in the dietary assessment of the study population. Although diet diversity has been shown to be highly correlated with the intakes of a number of nutrients, the diet diversity indices constructed in this study did not adequately represent nutrient intakes in the diet as reported, in this study, intakes as reported in the 24-hour dietary recall. Specific cut-off levels of selected diversity indices might have limited application in some nutrition programs. The results were applicable to the sensitivity/specificity analyses in the socioeconomic subgroups as well as in the total population. ^
Resumo:
Trauma and severe head injuries are important issues because they are prevalent, because they occur predominantly in the young, and because variations in clinical management may matter. Trauma is the leading cause of death for those under age 40. The focus of this head injury study is to determine if variations in time from the scene of accident to a trauma center hospital makes a difference in patient outcomes.^ A trauma registry is maintained in the Houston-Galveston area and includes all patients admitted to any one of three trauma center hospitals with mild or severe head injuries. A study cohort, derived from the Registry, includes 254 severe head injury cases, for 1980, with a Glasgow Coma Score of 8 or less.^ Multiple influences relate to patient outcomes from severe head injury. Two primary variables and four confounding variables are identified, including time to emergency room, time to intubation, patient age, severity of injury, type of injury and mode of transport to the emergency room. Regression analysis, analysis of variance, and chi-square analysis were the principal statistical methods utilized.^ Analysis indicates that within an urban setting, with a four-hour time span, variations in time to emergency room do not provide any strong influence or predictive value to patient outcome. However, data are suggestive that at longer time periods there is a negative influence on outcomes. Age is influential only when the older group (55-64) is included. Mode of transport (helicopter or ambulance) did not indicate any significant difference in outcome.^ In a multivariate regression model, outcomes are influenced primarily by severity of injury and age which explain 36% (R('2)) of variance. Inclusion of time to emergency room, time to intubation, transport mode and type injury add only 4% (R('2)) additional contribution to explaining variation in patient outcome.^ The research concludes that since the group most at risk to head trauma is the young adult male involved in automobile/motorcycle accidents, more may be gained by modifying driving habits and other preventive measures. Continuous clinical and evaluative research are required to provide updated clinical wisdom in patient management and trauma treatment protocols. A National Institute of Trauma may be required to develop a national public policy and evaluate the many medical, behavioral and social changes required to cope with the country's number 3 killer and the primary killer of young adults.^
Resumo:
Developing a Model Interruption is a known human factor that contributes to errors and catastrophic events in healthcare as well as other high-risk industries. The landmark Institute of Medicine (IOM) report, To Err is Human, brought attention to the significance of preventable errors in medicine and suggested that interruptions could be a contributing factor. Previous studies of interruptions in healthcare did not offer a conceptual model by which to study interruptions. As a result of the serious consequences of interruptions investigated in other high-risk industries, there is a need to develop a model to describe, understand, explain, and predict interruptions and their consequences in healthcare. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop a model grounded in the literature and to use the model to describe and explain interruptions in healthcare. Specifically, this model would be used to describe and explain interruptions occurring in a Level One Trauma Center. A trauma center was chosen because this environment is characterized as intense, unpredictable, and interrupt-driven. The first step in developing the model began with a review of the literature which revealed that the concept interruption did not have a consistent definition in either the healthcare or non-healthcare literature. Walker and Avant’s method of concept analysis was used to clarify and define the concept. The analysis led to the identification of five defining attributes which include (1) a human experience, (2) an intrusion of a secondary, unplanned, and unexpected task, (3) discontinuity, (4) externally or internally initiated, and (5) situated within a context. However, before an interruption could commence, five conditions known as antecedents must occur. For an interruption to take place (1) an intent to interrupt is formed by the initiator, (2) a physical signal must pass a threshold test of detection by the recipient, (3) the sensory system of the recipient is stimulated to respond to the initiator, (4) an interruption task is presented to recipient, and (5) the interruption task is either accepted or rejected by v the recipient. An interruption was determined to be quantifiable by (1) the frequency of occurrence of an interruption, (2) the number of times the primary task has been suspended to perform an interrupting task, (3) the length of time the primary task has been suspended, and (4) the frequency of returning to the primary task or not returning to the primary task. As a result of the concept analysis, a definition of an interruption was derived from the literature. An interruption is defined as a break in the performance of a human activity initiated internal or external to the recipient and occurring within the context of a setting or location. This break results in the suspension of the initial task by initiating the performance of an unplanned task with the assumption that the initial task will be resumed. The definition is inclusive of all the defining attributes of an interruption. This is a standard definition that can be used by the healthcare industry. From the definition, a visual model of an interruption was developed. The model was used to describe and explain the interruptions recorded for an instrumental case study of physicians and registered nurses (RNs) working in a Level One Trauma Center. Five physicians were observed for a total of 29 hours, 31 minutes. Eight registered nurses were observed for a total of 40 hours 9 minutes. Observations were made on either the 0700–1500 or the 1500-2300 shift using the shadowing technique. Observations were recorded in the field note format. The field notes were analyzed by a hybrid method of categorizing activities and interruptions. The method was developed by using both a deductive a priori classification framework and by the inductive process utilizing line-byline coding and constant comparison as stated in Grounded Theory. The following categories were identified as relative to this study: Intended Recipient - the person to be interrupted Unintended Recipient - not the intended recipient of an interruption; i.e., receiving a phone call that was incorrectly dialed Indirect Recipient – the incidental recipient of an interruption; i.e., talking with another, thereby suspending the original activity Recipient Blocked – the intended recipient does not accept the interruption Recipient Delayed – the intended recipient postpones an interruption Self-interruption – a person, independent of another person, suspends one activity to perform another; i.e., while walking, stops abruptly and talks to another person Distraction – briefly disengaging from a task Organizational Design – the physical layout of the workspace that causes a disruption in workflow Artifacts Not Available – supplies and equipment that are not available in the workspace causing a disruption in workflow Initiator – a person who initiates an interruption Interruption by Organizational Design and Artifacts Not Available were identified as two new categories of interruption. These categories had not previously been cited in the literature. Analysis of the observations indicated that physicians were found to perform slightly fewer activities per hour when compared to RNs. This variance may be attributed to differing roles and responsibilities. Physicians were found to have more activities interrupted when compared to RNs. However, RNs experienced more interruptions per hour. Other people were determined to be the most commonly used medium through which to deliver an interruption. Additional mediums used to deliver an interruption vii included the telephone, pager, and one’s self. Both physicians and RNs were observed to resume an original interrupted activity more often than not. In most interruptions, both physicians and RNs performed only one or two interrupting activities before returning to the original interrupted activity. In conclusion the model was found to explain all interruptions observed during the study. However, the model will require an even more comprehensive study in order to establish its predictive value.