A multivariate frailty model for disease recurrences and survival

A multivariate frailty hazard model is developed for joint-modeling of three correlated time-to-event outcomes: (1) local recurrence, (2) distant recurrence, and (3) overall survival. The term frailty is introduced to model population heterogeneity. The dependence is modeled by conditioning on a shared frailty that is included in the three hazard functions. Independent variables can be included in the model as covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the posterior distributions of model parameters. The algorithm used in present application is the hybrid Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, which simultaneously updates all parameters with evaluations of gradient of log posterior density. The performance of this approach is examined based on simulation studies using Exponential and Weibull distributions. We apply the proposed methods to a study of patients with soft tissue sarcoma, which motivated this research. Our results indicate that patients with chemotherapy had better overall survival with hazard ratio of 0.242 (95% CI: 0.094 - 0.564) and lower risk of distant recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.636 (95% CI: 0.487 - 0.860), but not significantly better in local recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.575 - 1.054). The advantages and limitations of the proposed models, and future research directions are discussed. ^

STRATEGIES FOR THE TRANSFER OF APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE IMPLEMENTATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PROGRAMS IN TUNISIA

This dissertation focuses on Project HOPE, an American medical aid agency, and its work in Tunisia. More specifically this is a study of the implementation strategies of those HOPE sponsored projects and programs designed to solve the problems of high morbidity and infant mortality rates due to environmentally related diarrheal and enteric diseases. Several environmental health programs and projects developed in cooperation with Tunisian counterparts are described and analyzed. These include (1) a paramedical manpower training program; (2) a national hospital sanitation and infection control program; (3) a community sewage disposal project; (4) a well reconstruction project; and (5) a solid-waste disposal project for a hospital.^ After independence, Tunisia, like many developing countries, encountered several difficulties which hindered progress toward solving basic environmental health problems and prompted a request for aid. This study discusses the need for all who work in development programs to recognize and assess those difficulties or constraints which affect the program planning process, including those latent cultural and political constraints which not only exist within the host country but within the aid agency as well. For example, failure to recognize cultural differences may adversely affect the attitudes of the host staff towards their work and towards the aid agency and its task. These factors, therefore, play a significant role in influencing program development decisions and must be taken into account in order to maximize the probability of successful outcomes.^ In 1969 Project HOPE was asked by the Tunisian government to assist the Ministry of Health in solving its health manpower problems. HOPE responded with several programs, one of which concerned the training of public health nurses, sanitary technicians, and aids at Tunisia's school of public health in Nabeul. The outcome of that program as well as the strategies used in its development are analyzed. Also, certain questions are addressed such as, what should the indicators of success be, and when is the time right to phase out?^ Another HOPE program analyzed involved hospital sanitation and infection control. Certain generic aspects of basic hospital sanitation procedures were documented and presented in the form of a process model which was later used as a "microplan" in setting up similar programs in other Tunisian hospitals. In this study the details of the "microplan" are discussed. The development of a nation-wide program without any further need of external assistance illustrated the success of HOPE's implementation strategies.^ Finally, although it is known that the high incidence of enteric disease in developing countries is due to poor environmental sanitation and poor hygiene practices, efforts by aid agencies to correct these conditions have often resulted in failure. Project HOPE's strategy was to maximize limited resources by using a systems approach to program development and by becoming actively involved in the design and implementation of environmental health projects utilizing "appropriate" technology. Three innovative projects and their implementation strategies (including technical specifications) are described.^ It is advocated that if aid agencies are to make any progress in helping developing countries basic sanitation problems, they must take an interdisciplinary approach to progrm development and play an active role in helping counterparts seek and identify appropriate technologies which are socially and economically acceptable. ^

UNDERSTANDING INTERRUPTIONS IN HEALTHCARE: DEVELOPING A MODEL

Developing a Model Interruption is a known human factor that contributes to errors and catastrophic events in healthcare as well as other high-risk industries. The landmark Institute of Medicine (IOM) report, To Err is Human, brought attention to the significance of preventable errors in medicine and suggested that interruptions could be a contributing factor. Previous studies of interruptions in healthcare did not offer a conceptual model by which to study interruptions. As a result of the serious consequences of interruptions investigated in other high-risk industries, there is a need to develop a model to describe, understand, explain, and predict interruptions and their consequences in healthcare. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop a model grounded in the literature and to use the model to describe and explain interruptions in healthcare. Specifically, this model would be used to describe and explain interruptions occurring in a Level One Trauma Center. A trauma center was chosen because this environment is characterized as intense, unpredictable, and interrupt-driven. The first step in developing the model began with a review of the literature which revealed that the concept interruption did not have a consistent definition in either the healthcare or non-healthcare literature. Walker and Avant’s method of concept analysis was used to clarify and define the concept. The analysis led to the identification of five defining attributes which include (1) a human experience, (2) an intrusion of a secondary, unplanned, and unexpected task, (3) discontinuity, (4) externally or internally initiated, and (5) situated within a context. However, before an interruption could commence, five conditions known as antecedents must occur. For an interruption to take place (1) an intent to interrupt is formed by the initiator, (2) a physical signal must pass a threshold test of detection by the recipient, (3) the sensory system of the recipient is stimulated to respond to the initiator, (4) an interruption task is presented to recipient, and (5) the interruption task is either accepted or rejected by v the recipient. An interruption was determined to be quantifiable by (1) the frequency of occurrence of an interruption, (2) the number of times the primary task has been suspended to perform an interrupting task, (3) the length of time the primary task has been suspended, and (4) the frequency of returning to the primary task or not returning to the primary task. As a result of the concept analysis, a definition of an interruption was derived from the literature. An interruption is defined as a break in the performance of a human activity initiated internal or external to the recipient and occurring within the context of a setting or location. This break results in the suspension of the initial task by initiating the performance of an unplanned task with the assumption that the initial task will be resumed. The definition is inclusive of all the defining attributes of an interruption. This is a standard definition that can be used by the healthcare industry. From the definition, a visual model of an interruption was developed. The model was used to describe and explain the interruptions recorded for an instrumental case study of physicians and registered nurses (RNs) working in a Level One Trauma Center. Five physicians were observed for a total of 29 hours, 31 minutes. Eight registered nurses were observed for a total of 40 hours 9 minutes. Observations were made on either the 0700–1500 or the 1500-2300 shift using the shadowing technique. Observations were recorded in the field note format. The field notes were analyzed by a hybrid method of categorizing activities and interruptions. The method was developed by using both a deductive a priori classification framework and by the inductive process utilizing line-byline coding and constant comparison as stated in Grounded Theory. The following categories were identified as relative to this study: Intended Recipient - the person to be interrupted Unintended Recipient - not the intended recipient of an interruption; i.e., receiving a phone call that was incorrectly dialed Indirect Recipient – the incidental recipient of an interruption; i.e., talking with another, thereby suspending the original activity Recipient Blocked – the intended recipient does not accept the interruption Recipient Delayed – the intended recipient postpones an interruption Self-interruption – a person, independent of another person, suspends one activity to perform another; i.e., while walking, stops abruptly and talks to another person Distraction – briefly disengaging from a task Organizational Design – the physical layout of the workspace that causes a disruption in workflow Artifacts Not Available – supplies and equipment that are not available in the workspace causing a disruption in workflow Initiator – a person who initiates an interruption Interruption by Organizational Design and Artifacts Not Available were identified as two new categories of interruption. These categories had not previously been cited in the literature. Analysis of the observations indicated that physicians were found to perform slightly fewer activities per hour when compared to RNs. This variance may be attributed to differing roles and responsibilities. Physicians were found to have more activities interrupted when compared to RNs. However, RNs experienced more interruptions per hour. Other people were determined to be the most commonly used medium through which to deliver an interruption. Additional mediums used to deliver an interruption vii included the telephone, pager, and one’s self. Both physicians and RNs were observed to resume an original interrupted activity more often than not. In most interruptions, both physicians and RNs performed only one or two interrupting activities before returning to the original interrupted activity. In conclusion the model was found to explain all interruptions observed during the study. However, the model will require an even more comprehensive study in order to establish its predictive value.