The role of a nursing home administrator's education in influencing quality of care in US nursing homes

Nursing home literature links poor management practices to poor quality of care and resident outcomes. Since Nursing Home Administrators (NHAs) require an array of skills to perform their role, it is important to explore what makes a NHA effective. This research fills a gap in the literature and provides a possible option to improve the quality of care in nursing homes. Purpose of the study. The study examines whether NHAs with advanced education (defined as a Masters degree or more) are associated with better quality of care in licensed nursing homes (NHs). Design and Methods. Data was derived from the CDC’s 2004 National Nursing Home Survey, which is a representative sample of NHs across the US. A Donabedian- inspired structure-process-outcomes study model was created to explain how education relates to quality of care. Quality of care was defined as onsite oral care, employee influenza vaccination rates and staff recognition programs. Statistical analyses included multivariate logistic regression; covariates included facility-level variables used in similar peer-reviewed research but also included select measures from the Area Resource File to control for county-level factors. Results. Descriptive and analytical analyses confirm that NHAs with a Bachelor’s degree, Associate degree or high school diploma perform less well than NHAs with a Masters degree or more. NHAs with advanced education are more likely to have onsite dental care and recognition programs for staff than NHAs with a Bachelor’s degree (or less). Also NHAs with less than graduate education are more likely to provide off-site dental care. Employee vaccination rates are not impacted by education. Adding certification, tenure or years of experience to a NHA with advanced education gives them an advantage. In fact, certification and experience alone do not have a positive relationship to care indicators; however adding these to advanced education produces a significant result. Implications. This research provides preliminary evidence that advanced education for the NHA is associated with better quality of care. If future research can confirm these findings, there is merit in revisiting the qualifications. Education can be a legitimate option to support quality improvement efforts in US nursing homes. ^

Costs and quality of medication reconciliation practice in primary care clinics

Medication reconciliation, with the aim to resolve medication discrepancy, is one of the Joint Commission patient safety goals. Medication errors and adverse drug events that could result from medication discrepancy affect a large population. At least 1.5 million adverse drug events and $3.5 billion of financial burden yearly associated with medication errors could be prevented by interventions such as medication reconciliation. This research was conducted to answer the following research questions: (1a) What are the frequency range and type of measures used to report outpatient medication discrepancy? (1b) Which effective and efficient strategies for medication reconciliation in the outpatient setting have been reported? (2) What are the costs associated with medication reconciliation practice in primary care clinics? (3) What is the quality of medication reconciliation practice in primary care clinics? (4) Is medication reconciliation practice in primary care clinics cost-effective from the clinic perspective? Study designs used to answer these questions included a systematic review, cost analysis, quality assessments, and cost-effectiveness analysis. Data sources were published articles in the medical literature and data from a prospective workflow study, which included 150 patients and 1,238 medications. The systematic review confirmed that the prevalence of medication discrepancy was high in ambulatory care and higher in primary care settings. Effective strategies for medication reconciliation included the use of pharmacists, letters, a standardized practice approach, and partnership between providers and patients. Our cost analysis showed that costs associated with medication reconciliation practice were not substantially different between primary care clinics using or not using electronic medical records (EMR) ($0.95 per patient per medication in EMR clinics vs. $0.96 per patient per medication in non-EMR clinics, p=0.78). Even though medication reconciliation was frequently practiced (97-98%), the quality of such practice was poor (0-33% of process completeness measured by concordance of medication numbers and 29-33% of accuracy measured by concordance of medication names) and negatively (though not significantly) associated with medication regimen complexity. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for concordance of medication number per patient per medication and concordance of medication names per patient per medication were both 0.08, favoring EMR. Future studies including potential cost-savings from medication features of the EMR and potential benefits to minimize severity of harm to patients from medication discrepancy are warranted. ^

Gender disparities in utilization, unmet need and expenditure for mental health care

Objectives: To compare mental health care utilization regarding the source, types, and intensity of mental health services received, unmet need for services, and out of pocket cost among non-institutionalized psychologically distressed women and men. ^ Method: Cross-sectional data for 19,325 non-institutionalized mentally distressed adult respondents to the “The National Survey on Drug Use and Health” (NSDUH), for the years 2006 -2008, representing over twenty-nine millions U.S. adults was analyzed. To assess the relative odds for women compared to men, logistic regression analysis was used for source of service, for types of barriers, for unmet need and cost; zero inflated negative binomial regression for intensity of utilization; and ordinal logistic regression analysis for quantifying out-of-pocket expenditure. ^ Results: Overall, 43% of mentally distressed adults utilized a form of mental health treatment; representing 12.6 million U.S psychologically distressed adults. Females utilized more mental health care compared to males in the previous 12 months (OR: 1. 70; 95% CI: 1.54, 1.83). Similarly, females were 54% more likely to get help for psychological distress in an outpatient setting and females were associated with an increased probability of using medication for mental distress (OR: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.63, 1.98). Women were 1.25 times likelier to visit a mental health center (specialty care) than men. ^ Females were positively associated with unmet needs (OR: 1.50; 95% CI: 1.29, 1.75) after taking into account predisposing, enabling, and need (PEN) characteristics. Women with perceived unmet needs were 23% (OR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.59, 0.99) less likely than men to report societal accommodation (stigma) as a barrier to mental health care. At any given cutoff point, women were 1.74 times likelier to be in the higher payment categories for inpatient out of pocket cost when other variables in the model are held constant. Conclusions: Women utilize more specialty mental healthcare, report more unmet need, and pay more inpatient out of pocket costs than men. These gender disparities exist even after controlling for predisposing, enabling, and need variables. Creating policies that not only provide mental health care access but also de-stigmatize mental illness will bring us one step closer to eliminating gender disparities in mental health care.^

Effect of primary care availability and health insurance coverage on risk and cost of Preventable Hospitalizations in Harris County

Preventable Hospitalizations (PHs) are hospitalizations that can be avoided with appropriate and timely care in the ambulatory setting and hence are closely associated with primary care access in a community. Increased primary care availability and health insurance coverage may increase primary care access, and consequently may be significantly associated with risks and costs of PHs. Objective. To estimate the risk and cost of preventable hospitalizations (PHs); to determine the association of primary care availability and health insurance coverage with the risk and costs of PHs, first alone and then simultaneously; and finally, to estimate the impact of expansions in primary care availability and health insurance coverage on the burden of PHs among non-elderly adult residents of Harris County. Methods. The study population was residents of Harris County, age 18 to 64, who had at least one hospital discharge in a Texas hospital in 2008. The primary independent variables were availability of primary care physicians, availability of primary care safety net clinics and health insurance coverage. The primary dependent variables were PHs and associated hospitalization costs. The Texas Health Care Information Collection (THCIC) Inpatient Discharge data was used to obtain information on the number and costs of PHs in the study population. Risk of PHs in the study population, as well as average and total costs of PHs were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression models and two-step Heckman regression models with log-transformed costs were used to determine the association of primary care availability and health insurance coverage with the risk and costs of PHs respectively, while controlling for individual predisposing, enabling and need characteristics. Predicted PH risk and cost were used to calculate the predicted burden of PHs in the study population and the impact of expansions in primary care availability and health insurance coverage on the predicted burden. Results. In 2008, hospitalized non-elderly adults in Harris County had 11,313 PHs and a corresponding PH risk of 8.02%. Congestive heart failure was the most common PH. PHs imposed a total economic burden of $84 billion at an average of $7,449 per PH. Higher primary care safety net availability was significantly associated with the lower risk of PHs in the final risk model, but only in the uninsured. A unit increase in safety net availability led to a 23% decline in PH odds in the uninsured, compared to only a 4% decline in the insured. Higher primary care physician availability was associated with increased PH costs in the final cost model (β=0.0020; p<0.05). Lack of health insurance coverage increased the risk of PH, with the uninsured having 30% higher odds of PHs (OR=1.299; p<0.05), but reduced the cost of a PH by 7% (β=-0.0668; p<0.05). Expansions in primary care availability and health insurance coverage were associated with a reduction of about $1.6 million in PH burden at the highest level of expansion. Conclusions. Availability of primary care resources and health insurance coverage in hospitalized non-elderly adults in Harris County are significantly associated with the risk and costs of PHs. Expansions in these primary care access factors can be expected to produce significant reductions in the burden of PHs in Harris County.^

Global practice experience: A useful lens for understanding patient and staff perceptions of successful integration of health information technology in primary care

Making healthcare comprehensive and more efficient remains a complex challenge. Health Information Technology (HIT) is recognized as an important component of this transformation but few studies describe HIT adoption and it's effect on the bedside experience by physicians, staff and patients. This study applied descriptive statistics and correlation analysis to data from the Patient-Centered Medical Home National Demonstration Project (NDP) of the American Academy of Family Physicians. Thirty-six clinics were followed for 26 months by clinician/staff questionnaires and patient surveys. This study characterizes those clinics as well as staff and patient perspectives on HIT usefulness, the doctor-patient relationship, electronic medical record (EMR) implementation, and computer connections in the practice throughout the study. The Global Practice Experience factor, a composite score related to key components of primary care, was then correlated to clinician and patient perspectives. This study found wide adoption of HIT among NDP practices. Patient perspectives on HIT helpfulness on the doctor-patient showed a suggestive trend that approached statistical significance (p = 0.172). Clinicians and staff noted successful integration of EMR into clinic workflow and their perception of helpfulness to the doctor-patient relationship show a suggestive increase also approaching statistical significance (p=0.06). GPE was correlated with clinician/staff assessment of a helpful doctor-patient relationship midway through the study (R 0.460, p = 0.021) with the remaining time points nearing statistical significance. GPE was also correlated to both patient perspectives of EMR helpfulness in the doctor-patient relationship (R 0.601, p = 0.001) and computer connections (R 0.618, p = 0.0001) at the start of the study. ^

Systematic review of current trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and association between health insurance coverage and CVD mortality among women aged 60--65 in Texas in 2000--2011

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is highly preventable, yet it is a leading cause of death among women in Texas. The primary goals of this research were to examine past and current trends of CVD, as well as identify whether there is an association between the insurance coverage and mortality from CVD among women aged 60–65 in Texas between 2000 and 2011. ^ The systematic review of the research is based on the guidelines and recommendations set by the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination for conducting reviews in health care. Over 47 citations of peer-reviewed articles from Ovid MEDLINE and PubMed databases and five websites were identified, of which 7 studies met inclusion criteria for the first systematic review to examine the trends of CVD in Texas. Ten citations of peer-reviewed articles from Ovid MEDLINE and PubMed databases and five web sites were reviewed for the second systematic review (to study the association between insurance coverage and cardiovascular health among Texas women 60–64 years of age), of which 3 studies met inclusion criteria and were included in the research. The results of the study highlighted key gaps in the existing literature and important areas for the further research, as well as determined directions for future public health CVD prevention programs in Texas. ^ Based on the conducted research, the major determinants of premature mortality among women attributed to cardiovascular disease are based on individual level characteristics, more specifically sex, age, race/ethnicity, and education. The results indicate that African American and non-Hispanic white women are more likely to have higher CVD mortality rates than Hispanic women due to higher prevalence of cardiac risk factors. The data also shows higher levels of mortality from CVD in the southeastern United States, with Texas ranking as the third state with the highest prevalence of CVD among women. According to the Texas Department of State Health Services, there are approximately 56,000 deaths caused by CVD annually in Texas, which represents about one death every ten minutes. Coronary artery disease and stroke were the causes of 31.2 percent of all female deaths in Texas in 2009, meaning that approximately 68 women die from any form of cardiac disease in Texas each day. ^ The data of the reviewed studies indicate that women' lack of health insurance was significantly associated with a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease. The uninsured women were more likely to be unaware of their risk factors and more likely to have undiagnosed diabetes—a co-morbidity factor of CVD. One of the studies also reports strong correlation between state rates of uninsured and lower rates of preventive care. Given these strong correlations, those who were chronically uninsured were at a higher risk of mortality than the insured, due to prolonged periods of time without basic access to preventive and medical care. ^ Suggested recommendations to decrease CVD mortality rates in Texas are consistent with the existing literature and include state policy development that addresses elimination of health disparities, consideration of potential benefits of universal health coverage by the legislative policymakers, and maintenance of solid partnerships between public health agencies and hospitals to educate on, diagnose, and treat CVD among the female population in Texas. ^

Development of a standard sign-out procedure for clinicians in a pediatric intensive care unit

Background: Poor communication among health care providers is cited as the most common cause of sentinel events involving patients. Sign-out of patient data at the change of clinician shifts is a component of communication that is especially vulnerable to errors. Sign-outs are particularly extensive and complex in intensive care units (ICUs). There is a paucity of validated tools to assess ICU sign-outs. ^ Objective: To design a valid and reliable survey tool to assess the perceptions of Pediatric ICU (PICU) clinicians about sign-out. ^ Design: Cross-sectional, web-based survey ^ Setting: Academic hospital, 31-bed PICU ^ Subjects: Attending faculty, fellows, nurse practitioners and physician assistants. ^ Interventions: A survey was designed with input from a focus group and administered to PICU clinicians. Test-retest reliability, internal consistency and validity of the survey tool were assessed. ^ Measurements and Main Results: Forty-eight PICU clinicians agreed to participate. We had 42(88%) and 40(83%) responses in the test and retest phases. The mean scores for the ten survey items ranged from 2.79 to 3.67 on a five point Likert scale with no significant test-retest difference and a Pearson correlation between pre and post answers of 0.65. The survey item scores showed internal consistency with a Cronbach's Alpha of 0.85. Exploratory factor analysis revealed three constructs: efficacy of sign-out process, recipient satisfaction and content applicability. Seventy eight % clinicians affirmed the need for improvement of the sign-out process and 83% confirmed the need for face- to-face verbal sign-out. A system-based sign-out format was favored by fellows and advanced level practitioners while attendings preferred a problem-based format (p=0.003). ^ Conclusions: We developed a valid and reliable survey to assess clinician perceptions about the ICU sign-out process. These results can be used to design a verbal template to improve and standardize the sign-out process.^

Black/white disparities in infant mortality rates in the U.S.: A quality of care perspective

The infant mortality rate for non-Hispanic Black infants in the U.S. is 13.63 deaths per 1,000 live births while the IMR for non-Hispanic White persons in the U.S. is 5.76 deaths per 1,000 live births. Black women are 2 times as likely as White women to deliver preterm infants and Black women are 2 times as likely as White women to deliver low birth weight infants (weighing less than 2,500 grams at birth). Differential underlying risk factors among mothers of different racial/ethnic groups for delivering pre-term and low birth weight infants have been historically accepted as the cause of racial disparities in IMRs. However, differential underlying risk status may not be the only major causative factor. Differential or unequal access to and provision of care is widely speculated to be a leading contributing factor to the wide racial disparity in infant mortality.2 This paper conducts a systematic review of existing literature investigating racial disparities in obstetrical care provided by healthcare practitioners to evaluate whether inequities in healthcare services provided to pregnant mothers and their neonates exist. The search terms "racial disparities obstetrical care," "racial differences quality of prenatal care," and "infant mortality racial disparities" were entered into the EBSCO Medline, Ovid Medline, PubMed, and Academic Search Complete databases, and articles between years 1990–2011 were selected for abstract review. The only articles included were those that used statistical methods to assess whether racial inequalities were present in the obstetrical services provided to pregnant women. My literature search returned 5 articles. Four of the five studies yielded significant racial differences in obstetrical care. However, the one study that used a large, nationally representative valid sample did not represent significant differences. Thus, this review provides initial evidence for racial disparities in obstetrical care, but concludes that more studies are needed in this area. Not all of the studies reviewed were consistent in the use and measurement of services, and not all studies were significant. The policy and public health implications of possible racial disparities in obstetrical care include the need to develop standard of care protocols for ALL obstetrical patients across the United States to minimize and/or eliminate the inequities and differences in obstetrical services provided.^

Economic evaluation of latent tuberculosis infection screening among health care workers in Houston

Since interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) were introduced in the 2000's, tuberculin skin testing (TST) and IGRAs have been used in various latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) screening settings. IGRAs are laboratory-based tests and are considered not to be affected by previous Bacille de Calmette et Guérin (BCG) vaccination; however, they are more costly when compared directly with TST, which does not require specimen processing in a laboratory. This study aimed to examine TST and two types of IGRAs, QuantiFERON-TB Gold in Tube (QFT-GIT) and T-SPOT. TB (TSPOT), from an economic viewpoint. Firstly, a systematic literature review was conducted to identify cost related analyses of LTBI screening. Secondly, specific cost information detailing each test's items and labor was collected from an LTBI screening program of health care workers in Houston, and the cost of each test was computed. Thirdly, using the computed cost estimate of each test, cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted to compare TST and IGRAs.^ A literature search showed that a limited number of studies have been conducted, but the IGRA's economic advantages were common among studies. Cost analyses showed that IGRAs were much more costly than TST. The results were consistent with previous studies. In cost-effectiveness analyses, where test cost and consequential TB-related cost were considered, IGRAs showed variable advantages over TST depending on the targeted population. When only non BCG-vaccinated people were considered, TST was the least costly option among the three tests. On the other hand, when only BCG-vaccinated people were considered, IGRAs were less costly options. These results were mostly consistent even with varying assumption parameters.^ IGRAs can be more costly than TST, but their economic disadvantages are alleviated when the target population was BCG-vaccinated. Based on current knowledge, IGRAs may be recommended in a population where the BCG history is mixed. Additional studies are needed to better understand IGRA's reliability among low-incidence and low-risk populations in which background TB prevalence is low.^

Epidemiology of Acute Lung Injury and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in children in Vietnam

Acute Lung Injury (ALI) and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) are life- threatening disorders that can result from many severe conditions and diseases. Since the American European Consensus Conference established the internationally accepted definition of ALI and ARDS, the epidemiology of pediatric ALI/ARDS has been described in some developed countries. In the developing world, however, there are very few data available regarding the burden, etiologies, management, outcome, and factors associated with outcomes of ALI/ARDS in children. ^ Therefore, we conducted this observational, clinical study to estimate the prevalence and case mortality rate of ALI/ARDS among a cohort of patients admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of the National Hospital of Pediatrics in Hanoi, the largest children's hospital in Vietnam. Etiologies and predisposing factors, and management strategies for pediatric ALI/ARDS were described. In addition, we determined the prevalence of HIV infection among children with ALI/ARDS in Vietnam. We also identified the causes of mortality and predictors of mortality and prolonged mechanical ventilation of children with ALI/ARDS. ^ A total of 1,051 patients consecutively admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit from January 2011 to January 2012 were screened daily for development of ALI/ARDS using the American-European Consensus Conference Guidelines. All identified patients with ALI/ARDS were followed until hospital discharge or death in the hospital. Patients' demographic and clinical data were collected. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed to identify independent predictors of mortality and other adverse outcome of ALI/ARDS. ^ Prevalence of ALI and ARDS was 9.6% (95% confidence interval, 7.8% to 11.4%) and 8.8% (95% confidence interval, 7.0% to 10.5%) of total PICU admissions, respectively. Infectious pneumonia and sepsis were the most common causes of ALI/ARDS accounting for 60.4% and 26.7% of cases, respectively. Prevalence of HIV infection among children with ALI/ARDS was 3.0%. The case fatality rate of ALI/ARDS was 63.4% (95% confidence interval, 53.8% to 72.9%). Multiple organ failure and refractory hypoxemia were the main causes of death. Independent predictors of mortality and prolonged mechanical ventilation were male gender, duration of intensive care stay prior to ALI/ARDS diagnosis, level of oxygenation defect measured by PaO2/FiO2 ratio at ALI/ARDS diagnosis, presence of non-pulmonary organ dysfunction at day one and day three after ALI/ARDS diagnosis, and presence of hospital acquired infection. ^ The results of this study demonstrated that ALI/ARDS was a common and severe condition in children in Vietnam. The level of both pulmonary and non-pulmonary organ damage influenced survival of patients with ALI/ARDS. Strategies for preventing ALI/ARDS and for clinical management of the disease are necessary to reduce the associated risks.^

Childhood cancer survivor satisfaction with characteristics of clinical care

This study investigated the characteristics of a clinic that affect how satisfied survivors of childhood cancer are with their medical care. Questionnaire and interview data from the Passport for Care: Texas Implementation project collected between January 2011 to April 2012 were analyzed. Eleven clinics in Texas participated. Questionnaire respondents were childhood cancer survivor patients who had been off therapy for at least 2 years, or their parents. Interview respondents were clinical providers or research staff at the participating clinics. The outcomes evaluated were answers to a single question on satisfaction with care and a composite Percent Satisfaction Score created from seven other questionnaire items that were correlated (Spearman Rho >0.3) with the question on satisfaction. The following characteristics were also evaluated: sex, age, race, education, and type of cancer. The following clinic indicators were evaluated: type of clinic (general vs. dedicated cancer survivor clinics), number of providers, number of survivors, ratio of survivors/providers, distribution of handouts, distribution of treatment summaries, and use of Children's Oncology Group (COG) guidelines. ^ The only demographic characteristic that affected satisfaction was race. A Kruskal-Wallis test showed a statistically significant difference (Chi-square 6.129, 2 d.f., p = 0.0467). To analyze this further, Wilcoxon Rank Sum test of pairings of the three groups were performed. A Bonferroni correction for multiple testing was applied, with p = 0.017 indicating significance at alpha = 0.05. There was no significant difference between the White and Hispanic groups or between the Hispanic and "Other" groups. For the White and "Other" groups there was a significant difference for the satisfaction item (p = 0.0123) but not for the Percent Satisfaction Score (p = 0.0289). These results suggest that race may influence satisfaction and should be evaluated further in future studies. ^ None of the clinic indicators affected the Percent Satisfaction Score. Going to a clinic that distributed patient information handouts (Wilcoxon Rank Sum p = 0.048) and going to a clinic with >=100 survivors (Wilcoxon Rank Sum p = 0.021) were associated with increased satisfaction. The population of childhood cancer survivors is a growing group of individuals with special health needs. In the future survivors will likely seek medical care in a variety of clinical settings, so it is important to investigate features to improve patient satisfaction with clinical care.^

Let their voices be heard: Understanding the barriers to seeking early prenatal care for low-income non-Hispanic Black women

Background: Receipt of early prenatal care, care during the first three months of pregnancy, is the standard in the United States. Sixty percent of non-Hispanic Black women who had a live birth in the Sunnyside community of Houston did not obtain early prenatal care in 2009. ^ This study's aims were to: 1) Describe the barriers to obtaining early prenatal care in non-Hispanic Black women who live in the Sunnyside community of Houston; and, 2) Describe the actions that could encourage non-Hispanic Black women who live in the Sunnyside Community to obtain early prenatal care. The goal was to provide information to organizations that promote early prenatal care use in non-Hispanic Black women in Harris County that may aid in developing interventions. ^ Methods: The Participatory Learning for Action rapid assessment qualitative method was used in a group setting to answer the research questions on behalf of women in the community. Women who participated in the group sessions also participated in an in-depth interview. Key informants who work in the community with pregnant women, or promote the use of prenatal care services, were also interviewed. An inductive analysis of the data was conducted to identify common themes that address the study's aims. ^ Results: Aim 1: Group participants identified fear of the reaction from family and/or the baby's daddy and shame, not having insurance or money, and lack of knowledge of the pregnancy and resources as the top three barriers to early prenatal care for women in the community. Aim 2: Group participants stated that to help women to overcome these barriers, communication, awareness and support; help, resources and services; and information and early education are needed. Participant in-depth interviewees echoed the themes of fear of the reaction from family and/or the baby's daddy and not knowing of the pregnancy. Key informants mentioned these themes as well, though not at the same priority level. Participants and key informants also mentioned similar themes for helping women to overcome barriers to early prenatal care. ^ Conclusion: A comprehensive approach is needed to improve early prenatal care use in the Sunnyside community. Education efforts must include all members of the community, young and old, to promote support for pregnant women. Community members must be a part of the process for developing education campaigns. Engaging the community builds a relationship with organizations that serve the community, which may promote use of the organizations' services, and build trust with the community. All efforts must be ongoing so that women and men of all ages in the community understand the importance of prenatal care and support women obtaining care early in the pregnancy.^

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AS INPUT FOR PREDICTIVE MODELING: PREDICTING CARDIAC ARREST IN A PEDIATRIC INTENSIVE CARE UNIT

The first manuscript, entitled "Time-Series Analysis as Input for Clinical Predictive Modeling: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" lays out the theoretical background for the project. There are several core concepts presented in this paper. First, traditional multivariate models (where each variable is represented by only one value) provide single point-in-time snapshots of patient status: they are incapable of characterizing deterioration. Since deterioration is consistently identified as a precursor to cardiac arrests, we maintain that the traditional multivariate paradigm is insufficient for predicting arrests. We identify time series analysis as a method capable of characterizing deterioration in an objective, mathematical fashion, and describe how to build a general foundation for predictive modeling using time series analysis results as latent variables. Building a solid foundation for any given modeling task involves addressing a number of issues during the design phase. These include selecting the proper candidate features on which to base the model, and selecting the most appropriate tool to measure them. We also identified several unique design issues that are introduced when time series data elements are added to the set of candidate features. One such issue is in defining the duration and resolution of time series elements required to sufficiently characterize the time series phenomena being considered as candidate features for the predictive model. Once the duration and resolution are established, there must also be explicit mathematical or statistical operations that produce the time series analysis result to be used as a latent candidate feature. In synthesizing the comprehensive framework for building a predictive model based on time series data elements, we identified at least four classes of data that can be used in the model design. The first two classes are shared with traditional multivariate models: multivariate data and clinical latent features. Multivariate data is represented by the standard one value per variable paradigm and is widely employed in a host of clinical models and tools. These are often represented by a number present in a given cell of a table. Clinical latent features derived, rather than directly measured, data elements that more accurately represent a particular clinical phenomenon than any of the directly measured data elements in isolation. The second two classes are unique to the time series data elements. The first of these is the raw data elements. These are represented by multiple values per variable, and constitute the measured observations that are typically available to end users when they review time series data. These are often represented as dots on a graph. The final class of data results from performing time series analysis. This class of data represents the fundamental concept on which our hypothesis is based. The specific statistical or mathematical operations are up to the modeler to determine, but we generally recommend that a variety of analyses be performed in order to maximize the likelihood that a representation of the time series data elements is produced that is able to distinguish between two or more classes of outcomes. The second manuscript, entitled "Building Clinical Prediction Models Using Time Series Data: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" provides a detailed description, start to finish, of the methods required to prepare the data, build, and validate a predictive model that uses the time series data elements determined in the first paper. One of the fundamental tenets of the second paper is that manual implementations of time series based models are unfeasible due to the relatively large number of data elements and the complexity of preprocessing that must occur before data can be presented to the model. Each of the seventeen steps is analyzed from the perspective of how it may be automated, when necessary. We identify the general objectives and available strategies of each of the steps, and we present our rationale for choosing a specific strategy for each step in the case of predicting cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Another issue brought to light by the second paper is that the individual steps required to use time series data for predictive modeling are more numerous and more complex than those used for modeling with traditional multivariate data. Even after complexities attributable to the design phase (addressed in our first paper) have been accounted for, the management and manipulation of the time series elements (the preprocessing steps in particular) are issues that are not present in a traditional multivariate modeling paradigm. In our methods, we present the issues that arise from the time series data elements: defining a reference time; imputing and reducing time series data in order to conform to a predefined structure that was specified during the design phase; and normalizing variable families rather than individual variable instances. The final manuscript, entitled: "Using Time-Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit" presents the results that were obtained by applying the theoretical construct and its associated methods (detailed in the first two papers) to the case of cardiac arrest prediction in a pediatric intensive care unit. Our results showed that utilizing the trend analysis from the time series data elements reduced the number of classification errors by 73%. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve increased from a baseline of 87% to 98% by including the trend analysis. In addition to the performance measures, we were also able to demonstrate that adding raw time series data elements without their associated trend analyses improved classification accuracy as compared to the baseline multivariate model, but diminished classification accuracy as compared to when just the trend analysis features were added (ie, without adding the raw time series data elements). We believe this phenomenon was largely attributable to overfitting, which is known to increase as the ratio of candidate features to class examples rises. Furthermore, although we employed several feature reduction strategies to counteract the overfitting problem, they failed to improve the performance beyond that which was achieved by exclusion of the raw time series elements. Finally, our data demonstrated that pulse oximetry and systolic blood pressure readings tend to start diminishing about 10-20 minutes before an arrest, whereas heart rates tend to diminish rapidly less than 5 minutes before an arrest.

Impact of racial differences in medical care on breast cancer survival: Findings from a large nationwide and retrospective cohort study

Background: No studies have attempted to determine whether nodal surgery utilization, time to initiation and completion of chemotherapy or surveillance mammography impact breast cancer survival. ^ Objectives and Methods: To determine whether receipt of nodal surgery, initiation and completion of chemotherapy, and surveillance mammography impact of racial disparities in survival among breast cancer patients in SEER areas, 1992-2005. ^ Results: Adjusting for nodal surgery did not reduce racial disparities in survival. Patients who initiated chemotherapy more than three months after surgery were 1.8 times more likely to die of breast cancer (95% CI 1.3-2.5) compared to those who initiated chemotherapy less than a month after surgery, even after controlling for known confounders or controlling for race. Despite correcting for chemotherapy initiation and completion and known predictors of outcome, African American women still had worse disease specific survival than their Caucasian counterparts. We found that non-whites underwent surveillance mammography less frequently compared with whites and mammography use during a one- or two-year time interval was associated with a small reduced risk of breast-cancer-specific and all-cause mortality. Women who received a mammogram during a two-year interval could expect the same disease-specific survival benefit or overall survival benefit as women who received a mammogram during a one-year interval. We found that while adjustment for surveillance mammography receipt and physician visits reduced differences in mortality between blacks and whites, these survival disparities were eliminated after adjusting for the number of surveillance mammograms received. ^ Conclusions: The disparities in survival among African American and Hispanic women with breast cancer are not explained by nodal surgery utilization or chemotherapy initiation and chemotherapy completion. Surveillance mammograms, physician visits and number of mammograms received may play a major role in achieving equal outcomes for breast cancer-specific mortality for women diagnosed with primary breast cancer. Racial disparities in all-cause mortality were explained by racial differences in surveillance mammograms to certain degree, but were no longer significant after controlling for differences in comorbidity. Focusing on access to quality care and post treatment surveillance might help achieve national goals to eliminate racial disparities in healthcare and outcomes. ^

A Renewed Day for Family Preservation

The philosophy and principles of family preservation have emerged in new forms over the past eight years. From the Family Preservation and Support Act of 1993 to the Adoption and Safe Families Act (ASFA) of today, the value of the family to individuals and society is clear. While family preservation "programs" per se may not be as plentiful, the principals are founding almost every array of services from children, corrections, D.D. to mental health and work with the elderly. The Administration's priorities of healthy marriage, fatherhood, incarcerated parents, and faith-based programs reflect a family-centered approach to social issues. This redefining of the village will require our renewed efforts to articulate the importance of family centered practice and policy.