Bioterrorism preparedness at a hospital level in the Southwest Region of the United States -- A systematic review

Since the tragic events of September, 11 2001 the United States bioterrorism and disaster preparedness has made significant progress; yet, numerous research studies of nationwide hospital emergency response have found alarming shortcomings in surge capacity and training level of health care personnel in responding to bioterrorism incidents. The primary goals of this research were to assess hospital preparedness towards the threat of bioterrorist agents in the Southwest Region of the United States and provide recommendations for its improvement. Since little formal research has been published on the hospital preparedness of Oklahoma, Arizona, Texas and New Mexico, this research study specifically focused on the measurable factors affecting the respective states' resources and level of preparedness, such as funding, surge capacity and preparedness certification status.^ Over 300 citations of peer-reviewed articles and 17 Web sites were reviewed, of which 57 reports met inclusion criteria. The results of the systematic review highlighted key gaps in the existing literature and the key targets for future research, as well as identified strengths and weaknesses of the hospital preparedness in the Southwest states compared to the national average. ^ Based on the conducted research, currently, the Southwest states hospital systems are unable fully meet presidential preparedness mandates for emergency and disaster care: the staffed beds to 1,000 population value fluctuated around 1,5 across the states; funding for the hospital preparedness lags behind hospital costs by millions of dollars; and public health-hospital partnership in bioterrorism preparedness is quite weak as evident in lack of joint exercises and training. However, significant steps towards it are being made, including on-going hospital preparedness certification by the Joint Commission of Health Organization. Variations in preparedness levels among states signify that geographic location might determine a hospital level of bioterrorism preparedness as well, tending to favor bigger states such as Texas.^ Suggested recommendations on improvement of the hospital bioterrorism preparedness are consistent with the existing literature and include establishment and maintenance of solid partnerships between hospitals and public health agencies, conduction of joint exercises and drills for the health care personnel and key partners, improved state and federal funding specific to bioterrorism preparedness objectives, as well as on-going training of the clinical personnel on recognition of the bioterrorism agents.^

OUT-OF-HOSPITAL CHILDBEARING CENTERS IN THE UNITED STATES: A DESCRIPTIVE STUDY OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC AND MEDICAL-OBSTETRIC CHARACTERISTICS OF WOMEN BEGINNING LABOR THEREIN 1972-1979

There is currently much interest in the appropriate use of obstetrical technology, cost containment and meeting consumers' needs for safe and satisfying maternity care. At the same time, there has been an increase in professionally unattended home births. In response, a new type of service, the out-of-hospital childbearing center (CBC) has been developed which is administratively and structurally separate from the hospital. In the CBC, maternity care is provided by certified nurse-midwives to carefully screened low risk childbearing families in conjunction with physician and hospital back-up.^ It was the purpose of this study to accomplish the following objectives: (1) To describe in a historical prospective study the demographic and medical-obstetric characteristics of patients laboring in eleven selected out-of-hospital childbearing centers in the United States from May 1, 1972, to December 15, 1979. Labor is defined as the onset of regular contractions as determined by the patient. (2) To describe any differences between those patients who require transfer to a back-up hospital and those who do not. (3) To describe administrative and service characteristics of eleven selected out-of-hospital childbearing centers in the United States. (4) To compare the demographic and medical-obstetric characteristics of women laboring in eleven selected out-of-hospital childbearing centers with a national sample of women of similar obstetric risk who according to birth certificates delivered legitimate infants in a hospital setting in the United States in 1972.^ Research concerning CBCs and supportive to the development of CBCs including studies which identified factors associated with fetal and perinatal morbidity and mortality, obstetrical risk screening, and the progress of technological development in obstetrics were reviewed. Information concerning the organization and delivery of care at each selected CBC was also collected and analyzed.^ A stratified, systematic sample of 1938 low risk women who began labor in a selected CBC were included in the study. These women were not unlike those described previously in small single center studies reported in the literature. The mean age was 25 years. Sixty-three per cent were white, 34 per cent Hispanic, 88 per cent married, 45 per cent had completed at least two years of college, nearly one-third were professionals and over a third were housewives. . . . (Author's abstract exceeds stipulated maximum length. Discontinued here with permission of school.) UMI ^

1902 Polk's Medical Register and Directory of the United States and Canada (Texas portion only)

List of Physicians and Surgeons arranged by states and provinces, giving post office address with population and location, the School practiced, date and college of graduation, all the existing and extinct medical colleges in the United States and Canada, with locations, officers, number of professors, lecturers, demonstrators, etc., the various medical societies, state prisons, hospitals, sanitariums, dispensaries, asylums and other medical institutions, boards of health, boards of medical examiners, a synopsis of the laws of registration and other laws relating to the profession, medical journals with names of editors, frequency of publication and subscription rates, medical libraries, mineral springs, official list of officers of the medical departments of the U.S. Army, Navy and Marine Hospital Service, roster of examining surgeons of the U.S. Pension Department, a descriptive sketch of each state, territory and province, embodying such matters as location, boundary, extent in miles and acres, latitude and longitude, statistics relating to climate, temperature, rate of mortality, number of deaths from consumption, etc. full particulars of all national associations and societies relating to medicine and surgery, and an INDEX TO THE PHYSICIANS OF THE UNITED STATES. Arranged alphabetically, with the number of the page on which the name appears.

Estimates of hospital and physician costs of epilepsy in the United States for 1995 comparing the provider -based survey method and a patient -based medical charts and billing method

This investigation compares two different methodologies for calculating the national cost of epilepsy: provider-based survey method (PBSM) and the patient-based medical charts and billing method (PBMC&BM). The PBSM uses the National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS), the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) and the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS) as the sources of utilization. The PBMC&BM uses patient data, charts and billings, to determine utilization rates for specific components of hospital, physician and drug prescriptions. ^ The 1995 hospital and physician cost of epilepsy is estimated to be $722 million using the PBSM and $1,058 million using the PBMC&BM. The difference of $336 million results from $136 million difference in utilization and $200 million difference in unit cost. ^ Utilization. The utilization difference of $136 million is composed of an inpatient variation of $129 million, $100 million hospital and $29 million physician, and an ambulatory variation of $7 million. The $100 million hospital variance is attributed to inclusion of febrile seizures in the PBSM, $−79 million, and the exclusion of admissions attributed to epilepsy, $179 million. The former suggests that the diagnostic codes used in the NHDS may not properly match the current definition of epilepsy as used in the PBMC&BM. The latter suggests NHDS errors in the attribution of an admission to the principal diagnosis. ^ The $29 million variance in inpatient physician utilization is the result of different per-day-of-care physician visit rates, 1.3 for the PBMC&BM versus 1.0 for the PBSM. The absence of visit frequency measures in the NHDS affects the internal validity of the PBSM estimate and requires the investigator to make conservative assumptions. ^ The remaining ambulatory resource utilization variance is $7 million. Of this amount, $22 million is the result of an underestimate of ancillaries in the NHAMCS and NAMCS extrapolations using the patient visit weight. ^ Unit cost. The resource cost variation is $200 million, inpatient is $22 million and ambulatory is $178 million. The inpatient variation of $22 million is composed of $19 million in hospital per day rates, due to a higher cost per day in the PBMC&BM, and $3 million in physician visit rates, due to a higher cost per visit in the PBMC&BM. ^ The ambulatory cost variance is $178 million, composed of higher per-physician-visit costs of $97 million and higher per-ancillary costs of $81 million. Both are attributed to the PBMC&BM's precise identification of resource utilization that permits accurate valuation. ^ Conclusion. Both methods have specific limitations. The PBSM strengths are its sample designs that lead to nationally representative estimates and permit statistical point and confidence interval estimation for the nation for certain variables under investigation. However, the findings of this investigation suggest the internal validity of the estimates derived is questionable and important additional information required to precisely estimate the cost of an illness is absent. ^ The PBMC&BM is a superior method in identifying resources utilized in the physician encounter with the patient permitting more accurate valuation. However, the PBMC&BM does not have the statistical reliability of the PBSM; it relies on synthesized national prevalence estimates to extrapolate a national cost estimate. While precision is important, the ability to generalize to the nation may be limited due to the small number of patients that are followed. ^

Analysis of clonality and antibiotic resistance among early clinical isolates of Enterococcus faecium in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The Enterococcus faecium genogroup, referred to as clonal complex 17 (CC17), seems to possess multiple determinants that increase its ability to survive and cause disease in nosocomial environments. METHODS: Using 53 clinical and geographically diverse US E. faecium isolates dating from 1971 to 1994, we determined the multilocus sequence type; the presence of 16 putative virulence genes (hyl(Efm), esp(Efm), and fms genes); resistance to ampicillin (AMP) and vancomycin (VAN); and high-level resistance to gentamicin and streptomycin. RESULTS: Overall, 16 different sequence types (STs), mostly CC17 isolates, were identified in 9 different regions of the United States. The earliest CC17 isolates were part of an outbreak that occurred in 1982 in Richmond, Virginia. The characteristics of CC17 isolates included increases in resistance to AMP, the presence of hyl(Efm) and esp(Efm), emergence of resistance to VAN, and the presence of at least 13 of 14 fms genes. Eight of 41 of the early isolates with resistance to AMP, however, were not in CC17. CONCLUSIONS: Although not all early US AMP isolates were clonally related, E. faecium CC17 isolates have been circulating in the United States since at least 1982 and appear to have progressively acquired additional virulence and antibiotic resistance determinants, perhaps explaining the recent success of this species in the hospital environment.

Hormonal exposure and risk of pancreatic cancer in the United States

Background. In the United States, the incidence of pancreatic cancer has increased; more than 37,000 new cases of pancreatic cancer were diagnosed in the year 2007. Overall, the five-year survival rate is about 5% and pancreatic cancer ranks the fourth leading cause of cancer-related mortality among men and women. Despite the observed progress in cancer diagnosis and treatment, pancreatic cancer remains an unresolved significant public health problem in the United States. Familial pancreatic cancer has been confirmed to be responsible for approximately 10% of pancreatic cancer cases. However, 90% are still without known inherited predisposition. Until now, the role of oral contraceptive pills (OCPs) and hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) among women with pancreatic cancer remain unclear. We examined the association of exogenous hormonal uses in US women with risk of pancreatic cancer. ^ Methods. This was an active hospital-based case-control study which is conducted at the department of gastrointestinal medical oncology in The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center. Between January 2005 and December 2007, a total of 287 women with pathologically confirmed pancreatic cancer (cases) and 287 healthy women (controls) were included in this investigation. Both cases and controls were frequency matched by age and race. Information about the use of hormonal contraceptives and hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) preparations as well as information about several risk factors of pancreatic cancer were collected by personal interview. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed in this study to analyze the data. ^ Results. We found a statistical significant protective effect for use of exogenous hormone preparations on pancreatic cancer development (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2–0.8). In addition, a 40% reduction in pancreatic cancer risk was observed among women who ever used any of the contraceptive methods including oral contraceptive pills (AOR, 6; 95% CI, 0.4–0.9). ^ Conclusions. Consistent with previous studies, the use of exogenous hormone preparations including oral contraceptive pills may confers a protective effect for pancreatic cancer development. More studies are warranted to explore for the underlying mechanism of such protection.^

A nested case-control study of radiation exposure and brain cancer incidence in the United States Air Force

A nested case-control study design was used to investigate the relationship between radiation exposure and brain cancer risk in the United States Air Force (USAF). The cohort consisted of approximately 880,000 men with at least 1 year of service between 1970 and 1989. Two hundred and thirty cases were identified from hospital discharge records with a diagnosis of primary malignant brain tumor (International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, code 191). Four controls were exactly matched with each case on year of age and race using incidence density sampling. Potential career summary extremely low frequency (ELF) and microwave-radiofrequency (MWRF) radiation exposures were based upon the duration in each occupation and an intensity score assigned by an expert panel. Ionizing radiation (IR) exposures were obtained from personal dosimetry records.^ Relative to the unexposed, the overall age-race adjusted odds ratio (OR) for ELF exposure was 1.39, 95 percent confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.88. A dose-response was not evident. The same was true for MWRF, although the OR = 1.59, with 95 percent CI 1.18-2.16. Excess risk was not found for IR exposure (OR = 0.66, 45 percent CI 0.26-1.72).^ Increasing socioeconomic status (SES), as identified by military pay grade, was associated with elevated brain tumor risk (officer vs. enlisted personnel age-race adjusted OR = 2.11, 95 percent CI 1.98-3.01, and senior officers vs. all others age-race adjusted OR = 3.30, 95 percent CI 2.0-5.46). SES proved to be an important confounder of the brain tumor risk associated with ELF and MWRF exposure. For ELF, the age-race-SES adjusted OR = 1.28, 95 percent CI 0.94-1.74, and for MWRF, the age-race-SES adjusted OR = 1.39, 95 percent CI 1.01-1.90.^ These results indicate that employment in Air Force occupations with potential electromagnetic field exposures is weakly, though not significantly, associated with increased risk for brain tumors. SES appeared to be the most consistent brain tumor risk factor in the USAF cohort. Other investigators have suggested that an association between brain tumor risk and SES may arise from differential access to medical care. However, in the USAF cohort health care is universally available. This study suggests that some factor other than access to medical care must underlie the association between SES and brain tumor risk. ^

Environmental, health and safety cost benefit analysis in the United States chemical industry

The purpose of this research project is to determine whether there is a cost/benefit to allocating financial and other company-related resources to improve environmental, health and safety performance beyond that which is required by law. The issue of whether a company benefits from spending dollars to achieve environmental, health and safety performance beyond legal compliance is an important issue to the chemical manufacturing industry in the United States because of the voluminous and complex legal requirements impacting environmental, health and safety expenditures. The cost/benefit issue has practical significance because many U.S. chemical manufacturing companies base their environmental, health and safety management strategies on just achieving and maintaining compliance with legal requirements when in reality this strategy may actually be a higher cost way of managing environmental, health and safety practices. This difference in environmental, health and safety management strategy is being investigated to determine if managing environmental, health and safety to achieve performance beyond that which is required by law results in a greater benefit to companies in the U.S. chemical manufacturing sector.

Influence of host interleukin-10 polymorphisms on development of traveler's diarrhea due to heat-labile enterotoxin-producing Escherichia coli in travelers from the United States who are visiting Mexico.

Up to 60% of U.S. visitors to Mexico develop traveler's diarrhea (TD), mostly due to enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) strains that produce heat-labile (LT) and/or heat-stable (ST) enterotoxins. Distinct single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the interleukin-10 (IL-10) promoter have been associated with high, intermediate, or low production of IL-10. We conducted a prospective study to investigate the association of SNPs in the IL-10 promoter and the occurrence of TD in ETEC LT-exposed travelers. Sera from U.S. travelers to Mexico collected on arrival and departure were studied for ETEC LT seroconversion by using cholera toxin as the antigen. Pyrosequencing was performed to genotype IL-10 SNPs. Stools from subjects who developed diarrhea were also studied for other enteropathogens. One hundred twenty-one of 569 (21.3%) travelers seroconverted to ETEC LT, and among them 75 (62%) developed diarrhea. Symptomatic seroconversion was more commonly seen in subjects who carried a genotype producing high levels of IL-10; it was seen in 83% of subjects with the GG genotype versus 54% of subjects with the AA genotype at IL-10 gene position -1082 (P, 0.02), in 71% of those with the CC genotype versus 33% of those with the TT genotype at position -819 (P, 0.005), and in 71% of those with the CC genotype versus 38% of those with the AA genotype at position -592 (P, 0.02). Travelers with the GCC haplotype were more likely to have symptomatic seroconversion than those with the ATA haplotype (71% versus 38%; P, 0.002). Travelers genetically predisposed to produce high levels of IL-10 were more likely to experience symptomatic ETEC TD.

A prospective cohort study evaluating the state of medical readiness in the United States Air Force and risk factors to improve the medical readiness posture

A cohort of 418 United States Air Force (USAF) personnel from over 15 different bases deployed to Morocco in 1994. This was the first study of its kind and was designed with two primary goals: to determine if the USAF was medically prepared to deploy with its changing mission in the new world order, and to evaluate factors that might improve or degrade USAF medical readiness. The mean length of deployment was 21 days. The cohort was 95% male, 86% enlisted, 65% married, and 78% white.^ This study shows major deficiencies indicating the USAF medical readiness posture has not fully responded to meet its new mission requirements. Lack of required logistical items (e.g., mosquito nets, rainboots, DEET insecticide cream, etc.) revealed a low state of preparedness. The most notable deficiency was that 82.5% (95% CI = 78.4, 85.9) did not have permethrin pretreated mosquito nets and 81.0% (95% CI = 76.8, 84.6) lacked mosquito net poles. Additionally, 18% were deficient on vaccinations and 36% had not received a tuberculin skin test. Excluding injections, the overall compliance for preventive medicine requirements had a mean frequency of only 50.6% (95% CI = 45.36, 55.90).^ Several factors had a positive impact on compliance with logistical requirements. The most prominent was "receiving a medical intelligence briefing" from the USAF Public Health. After adjustment for mobility and age, individuals who underwent a briefing were 17.2 (95% CI = 4.37, 67.99) times more likely to have received an immunoglobulin shot and 4.2 (95% CI = 1.84, 9.45) times more likely to start their antimalarial prophylaxsis at the proper time. "Personnel on mobility" had the second strongest positive effect on medical readiness. When mobility and briefing were included in models, "personnel on mobility" were 2.6 (95% CI = 1.19, 5.53) times as likely to have DEET insecticide and 2.2 (95% CI = 1.16, 4.16) times as likely to have had a TB skin test.^ Five recommendations to improve the medical readiness of the USAF were outlined: upgrade base level logistical support, improve medical intelligence messages, include medical requirements on travel orders, place more personnel on mobility or only deploy personnel on mobility, and conduct research dedicated to capitalize on the powerful effect from predeployment briefings.^ Since this is the first study of its kind, more studies should be performed in different geographic theaters to assess medical readiness and establish acceptable compliance levels for the USAF. ^

Patterns of alcohol and illicit substance use in the United States and Mexico. Substantive and methodologic issues in the cross-national analysis of alcohol and drug use data

This research examines prevalence of alcohol and illicit substance use in the United States and Mexico and associated socio-demographic characteristics. The sources of data for this study are public domain data from the U.S. National Household Survey of Drug Abuse, 1988 (n = 8814), and the Mexican National Survey of Addictions, 1988 (n = 12,579). In addition, this study discusses methodologic issues in cross-cultural and cross-national comparison of behavioral and epidemiologic data from population-based samples. The extent to which patterns of substance abuse vary among subgroups of the U.S. and Mexican populations is assessed, as well as the comparability and equivalence of measures of alcohol and drug use in these national samples.^ The prevalence of alcohol use was somewhat similar in the two countries for all three measures of use: lifetime, past year and past year heavy use, (85.0%, 68.1%, 39.6% and 72.6%, 47.7% and 45.8% for the U.S. and Mexico respectively). The use of illegal substances varied widely between countries, with U.S. respondents reporting significantly higher levels of use than their Mexican counterparts. For example, reported use of any illicit substance in lifetime and past year was 34.2%, 11.6 for the U.S., and 3.3% and 0.6% for Mexico. Despite these differences in prevalence, two demographic characteristics, gender and age, were important correlates of use in both countries. Men in both countries were more likely to report use of alcohol and illicit substances than women. Generally speaking, a greater proportion of respondents in both countries 18 years of age or older reported use of alcohol for all three measures than younger respondents; and a greater proportion of respondents between the ages of 18 and 34 years reported use of illicit substances during lifetime and past year than any other age group.^ Additional substantive research investigating population-based samples and at-risk subgroups is needed to understand the underlying mechanisms of these associations. Further development of cross-culturally meaningful survey methods is warranted to validate comparisons of substance use across countries and societies. ^

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OBESITY AND PSYCHOLOGICAL GENERAL WELL-BEING IN UNITED STATES WOMEN

While clinical studies have shown a negative relationship between obesity and mental health in women, population studies have not shown a consistent association. However, many of these studies can be criticized regarding fatness level criteria, lack of control variables, and validity of the psychological variables.^ The purpose of this research was to elucidate the relationship between fatness level and mental health in United States women using data from the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I), which was conducted on a national probability sample from 1971 to 1974. Mental health was measured by the General Well-Being Schedule (GWB), and fatness level was determined by the sum of the triceps and subscapular skinfolds. Women were categorized as lean (15th percentile or less), normal (16th to 84th percentiles), or obese (85th percentile or greater).^ A conceptual framework was developed which identified the variables of age, race, marital status, socioeconomic status (education), employment status, number of births, physical health, weight history, and perception of body image as important to the fatness level-GWB relationship. Multiple regression analyses were performed separately for whites and blacks with GWB as the response variable, and fatness level, age, education, employment status, number of births, marital status, and health perception as predictor variables. In addition, 2- and 3-way interaction terms for leanness, obesity and age were included as predictor variables. Variables related to weight history and perception of body image were not collected in NHANES I, and thus were not included in this study.^ The results indicated that obesity was a statistically significant predictor of lower GWB in white women even when the other predictor variables were controlled. The full regression model identified the young, more educated, obese female as a subgroup with lower GWB, especially in blacks. These findings were not consistent with the previous non-clinical studies which found that obesity was associated with better mental health. The social stigma of being obese and the preoccupation of women with being lean may have contributed to the lower GWB in these women. ^

Cutaneous malignant melanoma: A study of skin cancer in the United States from 1973--1997

Cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is the cancer of the melanocytes, the cells that produce the pigment melanin, and is an aggressive skin cancer that is most prevalent in the white population. Although most cases of malignant melanoma are white, black and other non-white populations also develop this disease. However, the etiologic factors involved in the development of melanoma in these lower-risk populations are not well known. Generally, survival rates of malignant melanoma have been found to be lower in blacks than for whites with similar stage of disease at diagnosis. ^ This study presents an analysis of the differences in survival between black and white cases with malignant melanoma of the skin as the only or first primary cancer, found in the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) cancer registry from 1973 to 1997. A total of 54,193 cases of CMM were diagnosed in black and white patients between 1973 and 1997. Black patients tended to be older, with a mean age of 64.46 years, compared to 53.14 years for white patients. Eighty-nine percent of patients were diagnosed with CMM as the only cancer. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^

The status of genetically modified foods internationally and in the United States

Biotechnology refers to the broad set of techniques that allow genetic manipulation of organisms. The techniques of biotechnology have broad implications for many industries, however it promises the greatest innovations in the production of products regulated by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Like many other powerful new technologies, biotechnology may carry risks as well as benefits. Several of its applications have engendered fervent emotional reactions and raised serious ethical concerns, especially internationally. ^ First, in my paper I discuss the historical and technical background of biotechnology. Second, I examine the development of biotechnology in Europe, the citizens' response to genetically modified (“GM”) foods and the governments' response. Third, I examine the regulation of bioengineered products and foods in the United States. ^ In conclusion, there are various problems with the current status of regulation of GM foods in the United States. These are four basic flaws: (1) the Coordinated Framework allows for too much jurisdictional overlap of biotechnological foods, (2) GM foods are considered GRAS and consequently, are placed on the market without pre-market approval, (3) federal mandatory labeling of GM foods cannot occur until the question of whether or not nondisclosure of a genetic engineering production processes is misleading or material information and (4) an independent state-labeling scheme of GM foods will most likely impede interstate commerce. ^

A model of factors determining levels of public support for health care policy in the United States

Public preferences for policy are formed in a little-understood process that is not adequately described by traditional economic theory of choice. In this paper I suggest that U.S. aggregate support for health reform can be modeled as tradeoffs among a small number of behavioral values and the stage of policy development. The theory underlying the model is based on Samuelson, et al.'s (1986) work and Wilke's (1991) elaboration of it as the Greed/Efficiency/Fairness (GEF) hypothesis of motivation in the management of resource dilemmas, and behavioral economics informed by Kahneman and Thaler's prospect theory. ^ The model developed in this paper employs ordered probit econometric techniques applied to data derived from U.S. polls taken from 1990 to mid-2003 that measured support for health reform proposals. Outcome data are four-tiered Likert counts; independent variables are dummies representing the presence or absence of operationalizations of each behavioral variable, along with an integer representing policy process stage. Marginal effects of each independent variable predict how support levels change on triggering that variable. Model estimation results indicate a vanishingly small likelihood that all coefficients are zero and all variables have signs expected from model theory. ^ Three hypotheses were tested: support will drain from health reform policy as it becomes increasingly well-articulated and approaches enactment; reforms appealing to fairness through universal health coverage will enjoy a higher degree of support than those targeted more narrowly; health reforms calling for government operation of the health finance system will achieve lower support than those that do not. Model results support the first and last hypotheses. Contrary to expectations, universal health care proposals did not provide incremental support beyond those targeted to “deserving” populations—children, elderly, working families. In addition, loss of autonomy (e.g. restrictions on choice of care giver) is found to be the “third rail” of health reform with significantly-reduced support. When applied to a hypothetical health reform in which an employer-mandated Medical Savings Account policy is the centerpiece, the model predicts support that may be insufficient to enactment. These results indicate that the method developed in the paper may prove valuable to health policy designers. ^