Estimation of the incidence of a rare genetic disease through a two-tier mutation survey.

Recent attempts to detect mutations involving single base changes or small deletions that are specific to genetic diseases provide an opportunity to develop a two-tier mutation-screening program through which incidence of rare genetic disorders and gene carriers may be precisely estimated. A two-tier survey consists of mutation screening in a sample of patients with specific genetic disorders and in a second sample of newborns from the same population in which mutation frequency is evaluated. We provide the statistical basis for evaluating the incidence of affected and gene carriers in such two-tier mutation-screening surveys, from which the precision of the estimates is derived. Sample-size requirements of such two-tier mutation-screening surveys are evaluated. Considering examples of cystic fibrosis (CF) and medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency (MCAD), the two most frequent autosomal recessive disease in Caucasian populations and the two most frequent mutations (delta F508 and G985) that occur on these disease allele-bearing chromosomes, we show that, with 50-100 patients and a 20-fold larger sample of newborns screened for these mutations, the incidence of such diseases and their gene carriers in a population may be quite reliably estimated. The theory developed here is also applicable to rare autosomal dominant diseases for which disease-specific mutations are found.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinsonism-dementia complex of Guam: Descriptive epidemiology, secular trends, and birth cohort effects on incidence, 1950--1989

This study describes the patterns of occurrence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and parkinsonism-dementia complex (PDC) of Guam during 1950-1989. Both ALS and PDC occur with high frequency among the indigenous Chamorro population, first recognized in the early 1950's. Reports in the early 1980's indicated that both ALS and PDC were disappearing, due to a purported reduction in exposure to harmful environmental factors as a result of the dramatic changes in lifestyle that took place after World War II. However, this study provides compelling evidence that ALS and PDC have not disappeared on Guam and that rates for both are higher during 1980-1989 than previously reported.^ The patterns of occurrence for both ALS and PDC overlap in most respects: (1) incidence and mortality are decreasing; (2) median age at onset is increasing; (3) males are at increased risk for developing disease; (4) risk is higher for those residing in the south compared to the non-south; and (5) age-specific incidence is decreasing over time except in the oldest age groups.^ Age-specific incidence of ALS and PDC, separately and together, is generally higher for cohorts born before 1920 than for those born after 1920. A significant birth cohort effect on the incidence of PDC for the 1906-1915 birth cohort was found, but not for ALS and for ALS and PDC together. Whether or not a cohort effect, period effect, or both are associated with incidence of ALS and PDC cannot be determined from the data currently available and will require additional follow-up of individuals born after 1920.^ The epidemiological data amassed over this 40-year period provide evidence that supports an environmental exposure model for disease occurrence as opposed to a simple genetic or infectious disease model. Whether neurodegenerative disease in this population occurs as a consequence of a single exposure or is explained by a multifactorial model such as a genetic predisposition with some environmental interaction is yet to be determined. However, descriptive studies such as this can provide clues concerning timing and location of potential adverse exposures but cannot determine etiology, underscoring the urgent need for analytic studies of ALS and PDC to further investigate existing etiologic hypotheses and to test new hypotheses. ^

Incidence, etiology and risk factors of neonatal seizures Harris County, Texas, 1992--1994

This study was conducted to determine the incidence and etiology of neonatal seizures, and evaluate risk factors for this condition in Harris County, Texas, between 1992 and 1994. Potential cases were ascertained from four sources: discharge diagnoses at local hospitals, birth certificates, death certificates, and a clinical study of neonatal seizures conducted concurrent with this study at a large tertiary care center in Houston, Texas. The neonatal period was defined as the first 28 days of life for term infants, and up to 44 weeks gestation for preterm infants.^ There were 207 cases of neonatal seizures ascertained among 116,048 live births, yielding and incidence of 1.8 per 1000. Half of the seizures occurred by the third day of life, 70% within the first week, and 93% within the first 28 days of life. Among 48 preterm infants with seizures 15 had their initial seizure after the 28th day of life. About 25% of all seizures occurred after discharge from the hospital of birth.^ Idiopathic seizures occurred most frequently (0.5/1000 births), followed by seizures attributed to perinatal hypoxia/ischemia (0.4/1000 births), intracranial hemorrhage (0.2/1000 births), infection of the central nervous system (0.2/1000 births), and metabolic abnormalities (0.1/1000 births).^ Risk factors were evaluated based on birth certificate information, using univariate and multivariate analysis (logistic regression). Factors considered included birth weight, gender, ethnicity, place of birth, mother's age, method of delivery, parity, multiple birth and, among term infants, small birth weight for gestational age (SGA). Among preterm infants, very low birth weight (VLBW, $<$1500 grams) was the strongest risk factor, followed by birth in private/university hospitals with a Level III nursery compared with hospitals with a Level II nursery (RR = 2.9), and male sex (RR = 1.8). The effect of very low birth weight varied according to ethnicity. Compared to preterm infants weighing 2000-2999 grams, non-white VLBW infants were 12.0 times as likely to have seizures; whereas white VLBW infants were 2.5 times as likely. Among term infants, significant risk factors included SGA (RR = 1.8), birth in Level III nursery private/university hospitals versus hospitals with Level II nursery (RR = 2.0), and birth by cesarean section (RR = 2.2). ^

The effect of exposure to antibiotics on incidence and spontaneous clearance of childhood Helicobacter pylori infection

It is claimed often in the H. pylori literature that spontaneous clearance (infection loss without attempts to treat) is uncommon, though little evidence supports this claim. Emerging evidence suggests that spontaneous clearance may be frequent in young children; however, factors that determine persistence of untreated H. pylori infection in childhood are not well understood. The author hypothesized that antibiotics taken for common infections cause spontaneous clearance of H. pylori infection in children. The Pasitos Cohort Study (19982005) investigated predictors of acquisition and persistence of H. pylori infection in children from El Paso, Texas, and Juarez, Mexico, enrolled prenatally at maternal-child clinics. Children were screened for infection at target intervals of 6 months from 6-84 months of age by the 13C-urea breath test corrected for body-size-dependent variation in CO2 production. This dissertation aimed to estimate the risk of spontaneous clearance at the next test following an initial detected H. pylori infection (first detected clearance), estimate the effect of antibiotic exposure on the risk of first detected clearance (risk difference), and estimate the effect of antibiotic exposure on the rate of first detected infection (rate ratio). Data on infection status and medication history were available for 608 children followed for a mean of 3.5 years. Among 265 subjects with a first detected infection, 218 had a subsequent test, and among them, the risk of first detected clearance was 68% (95% CI: 61-74%). Children who took antibiotics during the interval between first detected infection and next test had an increased probability (risk difference of 10 percentage points) of a first detected clearance. However, there was also a similar effect of average antibiotic use >0 courses across all intervals preceding the next test. Average antibiotic exposure across all intervals preceding the first detected infection appeared to have a much stronger protective effect than interval/specific exposure when estimating incidence rate ratios (0.45 vs. 1.0). Incidental antibiotic exposure appears to influence the acquisition and duration of childhood H. pylori infection, however, given that many exposed children acquired the infection and many unexposed children cleared the infection, antibiotic exposure does not explain all infection events. ^

HIV incidence estimates and HIV/AIDS concurrent diagnosis in Houston/Harris County

The purpose of this dissertation was to estimate HIV incidence among the individuals who had HIV tests performed at the Houston Department of Health and Human Services (HDHHS) public health laboratory, and to examine the prevalence of HIV and AIDS concurrent diagnoses among HIV cases reported between 2000 and 2007 in Houston/Harris County. ^ The first study in this dissertation estimated the cumulative HIV incidence among the individuals testing at Houston public health laboratory using Serologic Testing Algorithms for Recent HIV Seroconversion (STARHS) during the two year study period (June 1, 2005 to May 31, 2007). The HIV incidence was estimated using two independently developed statistical imputation methods, one developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the other developed by HDHHS. Among the 54,394 persons who tested for HIV during the study period, 942 tested HIV positive (positivity rate=1.7%). Of these HIV positives, 448 (48%) were newly reported to the Houston HIV/AIDS Reporting System (HARS) and 417 of these 448 blood specimens (93%) were available for STARHS testing. The STARHS results showed 139 (33%) out of the 417 specimens were newly infected with HIV. Using both the CDC and HDHHS methods, the estimated cumulative HIV incidences over the two-year study period were similar: 862 per 100,000 persons (95% CI: 655-1,070) by CDC method, and 925 per 100,000 persons (95% CI: 908-943) by HDHHS method. Consistent with the national finding, this study found African Americans, and men who have sex with men (MSM) accounted for most of the new HIV infections among the individuals testing at Houston public health laboratory. Using CDC statistical method, this study also found the highest cumulative HIV incidence (2,176 per 100,000 persons [95%CI: 1,536-2,798]) was among those who tested in the HIV counseling and testing sites, compared to the sexually transmitted disease clinics (1,242 per 100,000 persons [95%CI: 871-1,608]) and city health clinics (215 per 100,000 persons [95%CI: 80-353]. This finding suggested the HIV counseling and testing sites in Houston were successful in reaching high risk populations and testing them early for HIV. In addition, older age groups had higher cumulative HIV incidence, but accounted for smaller proportions of new HIV infections. The incidence in the 30-39 age group (994 per 100,000 persons [95%CI: 625-1,363]) was 1.5 times the incidence in 13-29 age group (645 per 100,000 persons [95%CI: 447-840]); the incidences in 40-49 age group (1,371 per 100,000 persons [95%CI: 765-1,977]) and 50 or above age groups (1,369 per 100,000 persons [95%CI: 318-2,415]) were 2.1 times compared to the youngest 13-29 age group. The increased HIV incidence in older age groups suggested that persons 40 or above were still at risk to contract HIV infections. HIV prevention programs should encourage more people who are age 40 and above to test for HIV. ^ The second study investigated concurrent diagnoses of HIV and AIDS in Houston. Concurrent HIV/AIDS diagnosis is defined as AIDS diagnosis within three months of HIV diagnosis. This study found about one-third of the HIV cases were diagnosed with HIV and AIDS concurrently (within three months) in Houston/Harris County. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, this study found being male, Hispanic, older, and diagnosed in the private sector of care were positively associated with concurrent HIV and AIDS diagnoses. By contrast, men who had sex with men and also used injection drugs (MSM/IDU) were 0.64 times (95% CI: 0.44-0.93) less likely to have concurrent HIV and AIDS diagnoses. A sensitivity analysis comparing difference durations of elapsed time for concurrent HIV and AIDS diagnosis definitions (1-month, 3-month, and 12-month cut-offs) affected the effect size of the odds ratios, but not the direction. ^ The results of these two studies, one describing characteristics of the individuals who were newly infected with HIV, and the other study describing persons who were diagnosed with HIV and AIDS concurrently, can be used as a reference for HIV prevention program planning in Houston/Harris County. ^

Gender differences in colorectal cancer screening and incidence in large nationwide, population-based cohorts

Background. A few studies have reported gender differences along the colorectal cancer (CRC) continuum but none has done so longitudinally to compare a cancer and a non-cancer populations.^ Objectives and Methods. To examine gender differences in colorectal cancer screening (CRCS); to examine trends in gender differences in CRC screening among two groups of patients (Medicare beneficiaries with and without cancer); to examine gender differences in CRC incidence; and to examine for any differences over time. In Paper 1, the study population consisted of men and women, ages 67–89 years, with CRC (73,666) or without any cancer (39,006), residing in 12 U.S. Surveillance Epidemiology and End-Results (SEER) regions. Crude and age-adjusted percentages and odds ratios of receiving fecal occult blood test (FOBT), sigmoidoscopy (SIG), or colonoscopy (COL) were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess gender on the odds of receiving CRC screening over time.^ In Paper 2, age-adjusted incidence rates and proportions over time were reported across race, CRC subsite, CRC stage and SEER region for 373,956 patients, ages 40+ years, residing in 9 SEER regions and diagnosed with malignant CRC. ^ Results. Overall, women had higher CRC screening rates than men and screening rates in general were higher in the SEER sample of persons with CRC diagnosis. Significant temporal divergence in FOBT screening was observed between men and women in both cohorts. Although the largest temporal increases in screening rates were found for COL, especially among the cohort with CRC, little change in the gender gap was observed over time. Receipt of FOBT was significantly associated with female gender especially in the period of full Medicare coverage. Receipt of COL was also significantly associated with male gender, especially in the period of limited Medicare coverage.^ Overall, approximately equal numbers of men (187,973) and women (185,983) were diagnosed with malignant CRC. Men had significantly higher age-adjusted CRC incidence rates than women across all categories of age, race, subsite, stage and SEER region even though rates declined in all categories over time. Significant moderate increases in rate difference occurred among 40-59 year olds; significant reductions occurred among patients age 70+, within subsite rectum, unstaged and distant stage CRC, and eastern and western SEER regions. ^ Conclusions. Persistent gender differences in CRC incidence across time may have implications for gender-based interventions that take age into consideration. A shift toward proximal cancer was observed over time for both genders, but the high proportion of men who develop rectal cancer suggests that a greater proportion of men may need to be targeted with newer screening methods such as fecal DNA or COL. Although previous reports have documented higher CRC screening among men, higher incidence of CRC observed among men suggests that higher risk categories of men are probably not being reached. FOBT utilization rates among women have increased over time and the gender gap has widened between 1998 and 2005. COL utilization is associated with male gender but the differences over time are small.^

Incidence of fatal gunshot injuries occurring to Galveston County residents between 1979--1981

Fatal gunshot injury deaths and their characteristics were ascertained for the population of Galveston County, Texas, for 1979-81. A total of 147 gunshot deaths occurring to residents of Galveston County were enumerated from death certificates, police and hospital records. Residents accounted for 96.1% of all gunshot deaths occurring in the county. The overall firearms death rate was 25 per 100,000 population. This ranked gunshot mortality as the third leading cause of injury death and the sixth leading cause of death from all causes. Gunshot deaths accounted for 10% of all years of life lost due to premature mortality.^ Firearms accounted for 73% of all homicide deaths. The median age of gunshot homicide victims was 27 years. Gunshot homicide mortality was highest among black males with a rate of 61 per 100,000. Rates of 23 per 100,000 and 12 per 100,000 were observed for Hispanic males and black females respectively. Gunshot homicide cases were characterized by use of "low quality" handguns (76.1%), circumstances involving a "relationship breakup" (38.1%), and alcohol consumption (79.6%). The place of occurrence of gunshot homicide was a residence in over half of all cases. The occupation most frequently associated was fishing and farming. Homicide was the primary motivation for 84% of the cases.^ The descriptive epidemiology of gunshot suicide differed from that of gunshot homicide. Firearms accounted for 64% of all suicide deaths. The median age of gunshot suicide victims was 41 years. Gunshot suicide mortality was highest among white males with a rate of 24 per 100,000. Rates of 14 per 100,000 and 9 per 100,000 were observed for black males and Hispanic females respectively. Gunshot suicide cases were characterized by use of "low quality" handguns (69.4%), circumstances involving a "relationship breakup" (39.1%) and alcohol consumption (63%). The place of occurrence was a residence in 80% of the cases. The occupation most frequently associated was police or security guard.^ Strategies for primary prevention are recommended. The research strategy, based on Haddon's model, is suggested for further investigations. ^

Assessment of cancer incidence in Titus County, Texas, 1977--1984

The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of cancer in Titus County, Texas, through the identification of all cases of cancer that occurred in residents of the county during the period from 1977 to 1984. Data gathered from Texas Cancer Registry, hospital records, and death certificates were analyzed with regard to anatomic site, race, sex, age, city of residence, and place of birth. Adjustment of incidence rates by sex and race allowed comparisons with U.S. rates provided by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER).^ Seven hundred sixty-six (766) cancer cases were identified for the eight year period during 171,536 person-years of observation. In whites, statistically significant standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were found for leukemia (males SIR = 2.70 and females SIR = 2.26), melanoma (males SIR = 1.90 and females SIR = 2.25), lung (males SIR = 1.45) and for multiple myeloma (both sexes combined SIR = 1.86). In blacks, significant excess numbers of cases were found for Hodgkin's disease (males SIR = 8.33 and females SIR = 13.3) and for esophagus and bone considering both sexes together (SIR = 2.68 and 12.54, respectively). Rates for blacks were based on a small population and therefore unstable. A statistically significant excess number of cases for all sites combined was found in Mount Pleasant residents (age-adjusted incidence rate = 563.6 per 100,000 per year).^ A review of possible environmental risk factors in the area: hazardous waste disposal site, lignite deposits, and petrochemical and poultry industries are presented. A need for further epidemiological and environmental studies to identify etiological factors that could be responsible for the excess number of leukemia cases are recommended. For melanoma, a public health educational program to teach the population methods of protection from sun exposure is also suggested. ^

Association between cerebral oxygen metabolic rate and the incidence of nosocomial pneumonia in head injury patients

The development of nosocomial pneumonia was monitored in 96 head-trauma patients requiring mechanical ventilation for up to 10 days. Pneumonia occurred in 28 patients (29.2%) or 53.9 cases per 1,000 admission days. The incidence of nosocomial pneumonia was negatively correlated with cerebral oxygen metabolic rate (CMRO$\sb2$) measured during the first five days. The relative risk of nosocomial pneumonia for patients with CMRO$\sb2$ less than 0.6 umol/gm/min is 2.08 (1.09$-$3.98) times those patients with CMRO$\sb2$ greater than 0.6 umol/gm/min. The association between cerebral oxygen metabolic rate and nosocomial pneumonia was not affected by adjustment of potential confounding factors including age, cimetidine and other infections. These findings provide evidences underlying the CNS-immune system interaction. ^

Feeding practices and their associations with diarrhea incidence in a cohort of rural Egyptian infants

A study was conducted in 4 villages in Bilbeis, Egypt, to document the infant feeding practices and identify their determinants, and examine the associations between feeding practices and diarrhea incidence in infants. A cohort of 152 infants were followed from birth with twice-weekly home visits to record feeding practices and diarrheal illness. Cross-sectional information was obtained about child birth; early neonatal feeding practices; and the socioeconomic, demographic, and water and sanitation characteristics of study families.^ Prelacteal fees were given to 60% of the infants. Nineteen percent of the infants were wet nursed at least once during the first week of life. Breast-feeding prevalence declined from 100% among infants aged less than 12 weeks to 84% among those aged 44-47 weeks. The prevalence of exclusive breast-feeding among breast-fed infants was 38% in those aged less than 4 weeks, increased to 54% in age period 4-7 weeks, and then declined rapidly to 4% in age period 24-27 weeks. The patterns and determinants of consumption by breast-fed infants of specific supplements were examined in detail.^ Between birth and age 47 weeks, the diarrhea incidence rate per person-year among breast-fed infants (6.84 episodes) was identical to the rate among all infants (6.89 episodes). In age period 0-11 weeks, the diarrhea incidence rate among breast-fed infants receiving supplements was 1.3 times (95% confidence interval: 0.9-2.0) higher than the rate among those exclusively breast-fed. In other age periods, diarrhea incidence was generally nonsignificantly higher among exclusively breast-fed infants than among those partially breast-fed and those completely weaned.^ Both univariate and multivariate analyses were done to examine the associations between diarrhea incidence and the consumption by breast-fed infants of specific supplements. After multivariate adjustment, supplements that showed significant, borderline, or suggestive positive associations with diarrhea incidence were cereal-water, cheese, raw vegetables, and 'other' foods. Significant, borderline, or suggestive negative associations were observed between diarrhea incidence and the intake of fresh animal milk, and potatoes.^ To reduce the risk of diarrhea, indiscriminate use of supplements among Bilbeis infants aged less than 12 weeks should be strongly discouraged. While mothers in this area should be educated about methods of safer preparation, handling, storage, and administration of all weaning foods, their attention should be particularly drawn to the 4 foods that were found to be positively associated with diarrhea incidence among infants in this study. ^

A nested case-control study of radiation exposure and brain cancer incidence in the United States Air Force

A nested case-control study design was used to investigate the relationship between radiation exposure and brain cancer risk in the United States Air Force (USAF). The cohort consisted of approximately 880,000 men with at least 1 year of service between 1970 and 1989. Two hundred and thirty cases were identified from hospital discharge records with a diagnosis of primary malignant brain tumor (International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, code 191). Four controls were exactly matched with each case on year of age and race using incidence density sampling. Potential career summary extremely low frequency (ELF) and microwave-radiofrequency (MWRF) radiation exposures were based upon the duration in each occupation and an intensity score assigned by an expert panel. Ionizing radiation (IR) exposures were obtained from personal dosimetry records.^ Relative to the unexposed, the overall age-race adjusted odds ratio (OR) for ELF exposure was 1.39, 95 percent confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.88. A dose-response was not evident. The same was true for MWRF, although the OR = 1.59, with 95 percent CI 1.18-2.16. Excess risk was not found for IR exposure (OR = 0.66, 45 percent CI 0.26-1.72).^ Increasing socioeconomic status (SES), as identified by military pay grade, was associated with elevated brain tumor risk (officer vs. enlisted personnel age-race adjusted OR = 2.11, 95 percent CI 1.98-3.01, and senior officers vs. all others age-race adjusted OR = 3.30, 95 percent CI 2.0-5.46). SES proved to be an important confounder of the brain tumor risk associated with ELF and MWRF exposure. For ELF, the age-race-SES adjusted OR = 1.28, 95 percent CI 0.94-1.74, and for MWRF, the age-race-SES adjusted OR = 1.39, 95 percent CI 1.01-1.90.^ These results indicate that employment in Air Force occupations with potential electromagnetic field exposures is weakly, though not significantly, associated with increased risk for brain tumors. SES appeared to be the most consistent brain tumor risk factor in the USAF cohort. Other investigators have suggested that an association between brain tumor risk and SES may arise from differential access to medical care. However, in the USAF cohort health care is universally available. This study suggests that some factor other than access to medical care must underlie the association between SES and brain tumor risk. ^

Incidence of breast cancer in first-degree female relatives of men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer

Prostate cancer is the most common incident cancer and the second leading cause of death in men in the United States. Although numerous attempts have been made to identify risk factors associated with prostate cancer, the results have been inconsistent and conflicting. The only established risk factors are age and ethnicity. A positive family history of prostate cancer has also been shown to increase the risk two- to three-fold among close relatives.^ There are several similarities between breast and prostate cancer that make the relationship between the two of interest. (1) Histologically, both cancers are predominantly adenocarcinomas, (2) both organs have a sexual and/or reproductive role, (3) both cancers occur in hormone-responsive tissue, (4) therapy often consists of hormonal manipulation, (5) worldwide distribution patterns of prostate and breast cancer are positively correlated.^ A family history study was conducted to evaluate the aggregation of prostate cancer and co-aggregation of breast cancer in 149 patients referred to The University of Texas, M.D. Anderson Cancer Center with newly diagnosed prostate cancer. All patients were white, less than 75 years of age at diagnosis and permanent residents of the United States. Through a personal interview with the proband, family histories were collected on 1,128 first-degree relatives. Cancer diagnoses were verified through medical records or death certificate. Standardized incidence ratios were calculated using a computer program by Monson incorporating data from Connecticut Tumor Registry.^ In this study, familial aggregation of prostate cancer was verified only among the brothers, not among fathers. Although a statistically significant excess of breast cancer was not found, the increased point estimates in mothers, sisters and daughters are consistent with a co-aggregation hypothesis. Rather surprising was the finding of a seven-fold increased risk of prostate cancer and a three-fold increased risk of breast cancer among siblings in the presence of a maternal history of any cancer. Larger family history studies including high risk (African-Americans) and lower-risk groups (Hispanics) and incorporating molecular genetic evaluations should be conducted to determine if genetic differences play a role in the differential incidence rates across ethnic groups. ^

Ethnicity as a risk factor for diabetes incidence in a population of diagnosed hypertensives

Significant racial/ethnic differences exist in prevalence of hypertension (HTN) and non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM). Hypertension is more common in diabetics than in non-diabetics, and an etiologic link between the two conditions has been proposed. Since there are few longitudinal studies of persons with both HTN and NIDDM, a retrospective cohort study was conducted to determine if ethnicity (Black, Hispanic (Mexican-American), and non-Hispanic White) was related to NIDDM incidence in a low-SES, multi-ethnic clinic population of diagnosed hypertensives. Two thousand nine hundred forty-one hypertensives free of NIDDM at baseline were followed for up to 10 years. Mean baseline age was 56 $\pm$ 12 years, M:F percent was 33:67, and Black:Hispanic:White percent was 63:17:20. There were 236 incident cases of NIDDM. In Cox proportional hazards analysis, the risk of developing NIDDM over 10 years was not related to ethnicity after controlling for significant covariates, including age, baseline blood glucose and body mass index (adjusted RR for Blacks compared to Whites =.82, 95 percent CI =.57-1.18; adjusted RR for Hispanics compared to Whites =.84, 95 percent CI =.51-1.38). This result contrasts with the increased risk of NIDDM among Blacks and Hispanics compared to Whites found in the general population. The study suggests that a diagnosis of hypertension equalizes the risk of developing NIDDM among the three ethnic groups. ^

Macular edema in Hispanics with non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus in Starr County, Texas: Prevalence, incidence and risk factors

This project is based on secondary analyses of data collected in Starr County, Texas from 1981 till 1991 to determine the prevalence, incidence and risk factors for macular edema in Hispanics with non-insulin-dependent diabetes in Starr County, Texas. Two studies were conducted. The first study examined the prevalence of macular edema in this population. Of the 310 diabetics that were included in the study 22 had macular edema. Of these 22 individuals 9 had clinically significant macular edema. Fasting blood glucose was found to be significantly associated with macular edema. For each 10 mg/dl increase in fasting blood glucose there was a 1.07 probability of an increase in the risk of having macular edema. Individuals with fasting blood glucose $\ge$200 mg/dl were found to be more than three times at risk of having macular edema compared to those with fasting blood glucose $<$200 mg/dl.^ In the second study the incidence and the risk factors that could cause macular edema in this Hispanic population were examined. 240 Hispanics with non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and without macular edema were followed for 1223 person-years. During the follow-up period 27 individuals developed macular edema (2.21/100 person-years). High fasting blood glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin were found to be strong and independent risk factors for macular edema. Participants taking insulin were 3.9 times more at risk of developing macular edema compared to those not taking insulin. Systolic blood pressure was significantly related to macular edema, where each 10 mmHg increase in systolic blood pressure was associated with a 1.3 increase in the risk of macular edema.^ In summary, this study suggests that hyperglycemia is the main underlying factor for retinal pathological changes in this diabetic population, and that macular edema probably is not the result of sudden change in the blood glucose level. It also determined that changes in blood pressure, particularly systolic blood pressure, could trigger the development of macular edema.^ Based on the prevalence reported in this study, it is estimated that 35,500 Hispanic diabetics in the US have macular edema. This imposes a major public health challenge particularly in areas with high concentration of Mexican Americans. It also highlights the importance of public health measures directed to Mexican Americans such as health education, improved access to medical care, and periodic and careful ophthalmologic examination by ophthalmologists knowledgeable and experienced in the management of diabetic macular edema. ^

THE INCIDENCE OF PELVIC ENDOMETRIOSIS IN ROCHESTER, MINNESOTA, 1970-1979

The primary objectives of the study were to measure the incidence of pelvic endometriosis among white females of reproductive age (15-49 years) in Rochester, Minnesota, during the period 1970-1979 and to determine the risk of endometriosis by age, marital status, nun status, and educational attainment in this population. An historical prospective design was used. Incident (newly diagnosed) cases were identified from community medical records, and person-years of risk in the study population were estimated from census data.^ Almost two-thirds of the incident cases had surgically verified endometriosis, while the remainder were diagnosed by clinical findings alone. Incidence rates were prepared first with histologically confirmed cases only and then with the successive inclusion of less certain cases: surgically visualized, clinically probable, and clinically possible. On this basis, overall incidence rates were 108.8 to 246.9 newly diagnosed cases per 100,000 person-years. The incidence of pelvic endometriosis was lowest for women 15-19 years of age, increased markedly through age 44, and then declined for women 45-49 years of age. A significantly greater risk of pelvic endometriosis in never married women was detected only when the numerator was limited to histologically confirmed cases. Among never married women 20-49 years of age, no significant difference in the risk of pelvic endometriosis by nun status was detected, but a trend toward a lower incidence in nuns was observed. Women with education beyond high school had a significantly higher incidence of endometriosis than women with less education.^ Cases in the four diagnostic groups differed greatly by age and marital status but were similar with respect to virtually all other characteristics, once age differences were considered. Reproductive history characteristics described included: age of menarche; history of menopause; total pregnancies; ages of first pregnancy, marriage, and sexual intercourse; years from menarche to first intercourse; years of ovulatory cycling; difficulty becoming pregnant; and delay of the first pregnancy by choice. How these characteristics of incident cases differ from those of women free of endometriosis needs to be studied in future research. ^