3 resultados para Availability Heuristic

em Digital Peer Publishing


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Conscious events interact with memory systems in learning, rehearsal and retrieval (Ebbinghaus 1885/1964; Tulving 1985). Here we present hypotheses that arise from the IDA computional model (Franklin, Kelemen and McCauley 1998; Franklin 2001b) of global workspace theory (Baars 1988, 2002). Our primary tool for this exploration is a flexible cognitive cycle employed by the IDA computational model and hypothesized to be a basic element of human cognitive processing. Since cognitive cycles are hypothesized to occur five to ten times a second and include interaction between conscious contents and several of the memory systems, they provide the means for an exceptionally fine-grained analysis of various cognitive tasks. We apply this tool to the small effect size of subliminal learning compared to supraliminal learning, to process dissociation, to implicit learning, to recognition vs. recall, and to the availability heuristic in recall. The IDA model elucidates the role of consciousness in the updating of perceptual memory, transient episodic memory, and procedural memory. In most cases, memory is hypothesized to interact with conscious events for its normal functioning. The methodology of the paper is unusual in that the hypotheses and explanations presented are derived from an empirically based, but broad and qualitative computational model of human cognition.

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There has been a discontinuous but fairly persistent long-term decline in homicide rates in core European countries since about 1500. Since the 1950s, however, we observe an upward trend in violent crime not only in Europe but in almost all of the economically advanced nations that combine democratic political structures with free-market economies. The paper presents an explanatory scheme designed to account for both, the long decline and its apparent reversal. The theoretical model draws heavily upon ideas taken from the sociological work of Emile Durkheim and Norbert Elias—with some modifications and extensions. It seeks to integrate sociological and historical perspectives and to give due weight to both, structural and developmental forces. A key hypothesis is that the pacifying effects of the erosion of traditional collectivism can only be maintained to the extent by which “cooperative individualism” dominates over against the forces of “disintegrative individualism.” Some suggestions are made concerning the selection of appropriate indicators and the handling of methodological problems related to causal attribution.

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In recent years, the ability to respond to real time changes in operations and reconfigurability in equipment are likely to become essential characteristics for next generation intralogistics systems as well as the level of automation, cost effectiveness and maximum throughput. In order to cope with turbulences and the increasing level of dynamic conditions, future intralogistics systems have to feature short reaction times, high flexibility in processes and the ability to adapt to frequent changes. The increasing autonomy and complexity in processes of today’s intralogistics systems requires new and innovative management approaches, which allow a fast response to (un)anticipated events and adaptation to changing environment in order to reduce the negative consequences of these events. The ability of a system to respond effectively a disruption depends more on the decisions taken before the event than those taken during or after. In this context, anticipatory change planning can be a usable approach for managers to make contingency plans for intralogistics systems to deal with the rapidly changing marketplace. This paper proposes a simulation-based decision making framework for the anticipatory change planning of intralogistics systems. This approach includes the quantitative assessments based on the simulation in defined scenarios as well as the analysis of performance availability that combines the flexibility corridors of different performance dimensions. The implementation of the approach is illustrated on a new intralogistics technology called the Cellular Transport System.