Impact of a Changing Climate on Fine Particulate Concentrations in Butte, MT

A model was developed to assess the potential change in PM2.5 concentrations in Butte, Montana over the course of the 21st century as the result of climate change and changes in emissions. The EPA AERMOD regulatory model was run using NARCCAP climate data for the years of 2040, 2050, 2060 and 2070, and the results were compared to the NAAQS to determine if there is the potential for future impacts to human health. This model predicted an average annual concentration of 15.84 µg/m3 in the year 2050, which would exceed the primary NAAQS of 12 µg/m3 and is a large increase over the average concentration from 2010 – 2012 of 10.52 µg/m3. The effectiveness of a wood stove change out program was also evaluated to determine its efficacy, and modeled results predicted that by changing out 100% of inefficient stoves with an EPA approved model, concentrations could be reduced below the NAAQS.