Spatial and temporal analysis of land cover and landscape structure change in Zagros Forests

The Zagros oak forests in Western Iran are critically important to the sustainability of the region. These forests have undergone dramatic declines in recent decades. We evaluated the utility of the non-parametric Random Forest classification algorithm for land cover classification of Zagros landscapes, and selected the best spatial and spectral predictive variables. The algorithm resulted in high overall classification accuracies (>85%) and also equivalent classification accuracies for the datasets from the three different sensors. We evaluated the associations between trends in forest area and structure with trends in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, to identify the most likely driving forces creating deforestation and landscape structure change. We used available socioeconomic (urban and rural population, and rural income), and climatic (mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature) data for two provinces in northern Zagros. The most correlated driving force of forest area loss was urban population, and climatic variables to a lesser extent. Landscape structure changes were more closely associated with rural population. We examined the effects of scale changes on the results from spatial pattern analysis. We assessed the impacts of eight years of protection in a protected area in northern Zagros at two different scales (both grain and extent). The effects of protection on the amount and structure of forests was scale dependent. We evaluated the nature and magnitude of changes in forest area and structure over the entire Zagros region from 1972 to 2009. We divided the Zagros region in 167 Landscape Units and developed two measures— Deforestation Sensitivity (DS) and Connectivity Sensitivity (CS) — for each landscape unit as the percent of the time steps that forest area and ECA experienced a decrease of greater than 10% in either measure. A considerable loss in forest area and connectivity was detected, but no sudden (nonlinear) changes were detected at the spatial and temporal scale of the study. Connectivity loss occurred more rapidly than forest loss due to the loss of connecting patches. More connectivity was lost in southern Zagros due to climatic differences and different forms of traditional land use.

Rural water system sustainability : a case study of community-managed water systems in Saramaka communities

Worldwide, rural populations are far less likely to have access to clean drinking water than are urban ones. In many developing countries, the current approach to rural water supply uses a model of demand-driven, community-managed water systems. In Suriname, South America rural populations have limited access to improved water supplies; community-managed water supply systems have been installed in several rural communities by nongovernmental organizations as part of the solution. To date, there has been no review of the performance of these water supply systems. This report presents the results of an investigation of three rural water supply systems constructed in Saramaka villages in the interior of Suriname. The investigation used a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, coupled with ethnographic information, to construct a comprehensive overview of these water systems. This overview includes the water use of the communities, the current status of the water supply systems, histories and sustainability of the water supply projects, technical reviews, and community perceptions. From this overview, factors important to the sustainability of these water systems were identified. Community water supply systems are engineered solutions that operate through social cooperation. The results from this investigation show that technical adequacy is the first and most critical factor for long-term sustainability of a water system. It also shows that technical adequacy is dependent on the appropriateness of the engineering design for the social, cultural, and natural setting in which it takes place. The complex relationships between technical adequacy, community support, and the involvement of women play important roles in the success of water supply projects. Addressing these factors during the project process and taking advantage of alternative water resources may increase the supply of improved drinking water to rural communities.

ELECTRICITY GENERATION MODELING AND PHOTOVOLTAIC FORECASTS IN CHINA

With the economic development of China, the demand for electricity generation is rapidly increasing. To explain electricity generation, we use gross GDP, the ratio of urban population to rural population, the average per capita income of urban residents, the electricity price for industry in Beijing, and the policy shift that took place in China. Ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to develop a model for the 1979-2009 period. During the process of designing the model, econometric methods are used to test and develop the model. The final model is used to forecast total electricity generation and assess the possible role of photovoltaic generation. Due to the high demand for resources and serious environmental problems, China is pushing to develop the photovoltaic industry. The system price of PV is falling; therefore, photovoltaics may be competitive in the future.