Lava discharge rate estimates from thermal infrared satellite data at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala

Time-averaged discharge rates (TADR) were calculated for five lava flows at Pacaya Volcano (Guatemala), using an adapted version of a previously developed satellite-based model. Imagery acquired during periods of effusive activity between the years 2000 and 2010 were obtained from two sensors of differing temporal and spatial resolutions; the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) Imager. A total of 2873 MODIS and 2642 GOES images were searched manually for volcanic “hot spots”. It was found that MODIS imagery, with superior spatial resolution, produced better results than GOES imagery, so only MODIS data were used for quantitative analyses. Spectral radiances were transformed into TADR via two methods; first, by best-fitting some of the parameters (i.e. density, vesicularity, crystal content, temperature change) of the TADR estimation model to match flow volumes previously estimated from ground surveys and aerial photographs, and second by measuring those parameters from lava samples to make independent estimates. A relatively stable relationship was defined using the second method, which suggests the possibility of estimating lava discharge rates in near-real-time during future volcanic crises at Pacaya.

Infrared Thermography Enhancements for Concrete Bridge Evaluation

Infrared thermography is a well-recognized non-destructive testing technique for evaluating concrete bridge elements such as bridge decks and piers. However, overcoming some obstacles and limitations are necessary to be able to add this invaluable technique to the bridge inspector's tool box. Infrared thermography is based on collecting radiant temperature and presenting the results as a thermal infrared image. Two methods considered in conducting an infrared thermography test include passive and active. The source of heat is the main difference between these two approaches of infrared thermography testing. Solar energy and ambient temperature change are the main heat sources in conducting a passive infrared thermography test, while active infrared thermography involves generating a temperature gradient using an external source of heat other than sun. Passive infrared thermography testing was conducted on three concrete bridge decks in Michigan. Ground truth information was gathered through coring several locations on each bridge deck to validate the results obtained from the passive infrared thermography test. Challenges associated with data collection and processing using passive infrared thermography are discussed and provide additional evidence to confirm that passive infrared thermography is a promising remote sensing tool for bridge inspections. To improve the capabilities of the infrared thermography technique for evaluation of the underside of bridge decks and bridge girders, an active infrared thermography technique using the surface heating method was developed in the laboratory on five concrete slabs with simulated delaminations. Results from this study demonstrated that active infrared thermography not only eliminates some limitations associated with passive infrared thermography, but also provides information regarding the depth of the delaminations. Active infrared thermography was conducted on a segment of an out-of-service prestressed box beam and cores were extracted from several locations on the beam to validate the results. This study confirms the feasibility of the application of active infrared thermography on concrete bridges and of estimating the size and depth of delaminations. From the results gathered in this dissertation, it was established that applying both passive and active thermography can provide transportation agencies with qualitative and quantitative measures for efficient maintenance and repair decision-making.

Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.

Spatial and temporal analysis of land cover and landscape structure change in Zagros Forests

The Zagros oak forests in Western Iran are critically important to the sustainability of the region. These forests have undergone dramatic declines in recent decades. We evaluated the utility of the non-parametric Random Forest classification algorithm for land cover classification of Zagros landscapes, and selected the best spatial and spectral predictive variables. The algorithm resulted in high overall classification accuracies (>85%) and also equivalent classification accuracies for the datasets from the three different sensors. We evaluated the associations between trends in forest area and structure with trends in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, to identify the most likely driving forces creating deforestation and landscape structure change. We used available socioeconomic (urban and rural population, and rural income), and climatic (mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature) data for two provinces in northern Zagros. The most correlated driving force of forest area loss was urban population, and climatic variables to a lesser extent. Landscape structure changes were more closely associated with rural population. We examined the effects of scale changes on the results from spatial pattern analysis. We assessed the impacts of eight years of protection in a protected area in northern Zagros at two different scales (both grain and extent). The effects of protection on the amount and structure of forests was scale dependent. We evaluated the nature and magnitude of changes in forest area and structure over the entire Zagros region from 1972 to 2009. We divided the Zagros region in 167 Landscape Units and developed two measures— Deforestation Sensitivity (DS) and Connectivity Sensitivity (CS) — for each landscape unit as the percent of the time steps that forest area and ECA experienced a decrease of greater than 10% in either measure. A considerable loss in forest area and connectivity was detected, but no sudden (nonlinear) changes were detected at the spatial and temporal scale of the study. Connectivity loss occurred more rapidly than forest loss due to the loss of connecting patches. More connectivity was lost in southern Zagros due to climatic differences and different forms of traditional land use.

INSTANTANEOUS PHOTOSYNTHETIC RESPONSE TO TEMPERATURE OF MATURE FOREST CANOPIES AND EXPERIMENTALLY WARMED SEEDLINGS

Tropical trees have been shown to be more susceptible to warming compared to temperate species, and have shown growth and photosynthetic declines at elevated temperatures as little as 3oC above ambient. However, regional and global vegetation models lack the data needed to accurately represent physiological response to increased temperatures in tropical forests. We compared the instantaneous photosynthetic responses to elevated temperatures of four mature tropical rainforest tree species in Puerto Rico and the temperate broadleaf species sugar maple (Acer saccharum) in Michigan. Contrary to expectations, leaves in the upper canopy of both temperate and tropical forests had temperature optima that are already exceeded by mean daily leaf temperatures. This indicates that tropical and temperate forests are already seeing photosynthesis decline at mid-day temperature. This decline may worsen as air temperatures rise with climate change if trees are unable to acclimate, increasing the likelihood that forests may shift from carbon sinks to sources. A secondary study was conducted on experimentally warmed sugar maple seedlings to determine if photosynthesis had been able to acclimate to +5oC air temperature over four years. Species abundance models had predicted a decline of sugar maple within the Upper Peninsula of Michigan over the next 100 years, due to elevated temperature and altered precipitation. Instantaneous photosynthetic temperature response curves on both control and heated seedlings showed that the differences between treatments were not statistically significant, though there was a 16% increase in temperature optima and a 3% increase in maximum rates of photosynthesis in warmed plots. Though evidence of acclimation was not significant, the seedlings did not fare poorly as the models suggest.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SOIL MICROORGANISMS IN NORTHERN HARDWOOD FORESTS

As global climate continues to change, it becomes more important to understand possible feedbacks from soils to the climate system. This dissertation focuses on soil microbial community responses to climate change factors in northern hardwood forests. Two soil warming experiments at Harvard Forest in Massachusetts, and a climate change manipulation experiment with both elevated temperature and increased moisture inputs in Michigan were sampled. The hyphal in-growth bag method was to understand how soil fungal biomass and respiration respond to climate change factors. Our results from phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analyses suggest that the hyphal in-growth bag method allows relatively pure samples of fungal hyphae to be partitioned from bacteria in the soil. The contribution of fungal hyphal respiration to soil respiration was examined in climate change manipulation experiments in Massachusetts and Michigan. The Harvard Forest soil warming experiments in Massachusetts are long-term studies with 8 and 18 years of +5 °C warming treatment. Hyphal respiration and biomass production tended to decrease with soil warming at Harvard Forest. This suggests that fungal hyphae adjust to higher temperatures by decreasing the amount of carbon respired and the amount of carbon stored in biomass. The Ford Forestry Center experiment in Michigan has a 2 x 2 fully factorial design with warming (+4-5 °C) and moisture addition (+30% average ambient growing season precipitation). This experiment was used to examine hyphal growth and respiration of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), soil enzymatic capacity, microbial biomass and microbial community structure in the soil over two years of experimental treatment. Results from the hyphal in-growth bag study indicate that AMF hyphal growth and respiration respond negatively to drought. Soil enzyme activities tend to be higher in heated versus unheated soils. There were significant temporal variations in enzyme activity and microbial biomass estimates. When microbial biomass was estimated using chloroform fumigation extractions there were no differences between experimental treatments and the control. When PLFA analyses were used to estimate microbial biomass we found that biomass responds negatively to higher temperatures and positively to moisture addition. This pattern was present for both bacteria and fungi. More information on the quality and composition of the organic matter and nutrients in soils from climate change manipulation experiments will allow us to gain a more thorough understanding of the mechanisms driving the patterns reported here. The information presented here will improve current soil carbon and nitrogen cycling models.

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUNGAL COMMUNITIES ON THE DECOMPOSITION OF WOOD-DERIVED CARBON IN FOREST SOILS

Soils are the largest sinks of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. Soil organic carbon is important for ecosystem balance as it supplies plants with nutrients, maintains soil structure, and helps control the exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere. The processes in which wood carbon is stabilized and destabilized in forest soils is still not understood completely. This study attempts to measure early wood decomposition by different fungal communities (inoculation with pure colonies of brown or white rot, or the original microbial community) under various interacting treatments: wood quality (wood from +CO2, +CO2+O3, or ambient atmosphere Aspen-FACE treatments from Rhinelander, WI), temperature (ambient or warmed), soil texture (loamy or sandy textured soil), and wood location (plot surface or buried 15cm below surface). Control plots with no wood chips added were also monitored throughout the study. By using isotopically-labelled wood chips from the Aspen-FACE experiment, we are able to track wood-derived carbon losses as soil CO2 efflux and as leached dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We analyzed soil water for chemical characteristics such as, total phenolics, SUVA254, humification, and molecular size. Wood chip samples were also analyzed for their proportion of lignin:carbohydrates using FTIR analysis at three time intervals throughout 12 months of decomposition. After two years of measurements, the average total soil CO2 efflux rates were significantly different depending on wood location, temperature, and wood quality. The wood-derived portion soil CO2 efflux also varied significantly by wood location, temperature, and wood quality. The average total DOC and the wood-derived portion of DOC differed between inoculation treatments, wood location, and temperature. Soil water chemical characteristics varied significantly by inoculation treatments, temperature, and wood quality. After 12 months of decomposition the proportion of lignin:carbohydrates varied significantly by inoculation treatment, with white rot having the only average proportional decrease in lignin:carbohydrates. Both soil CO2 efflux and DOC losses indicate that wood location is important. Carbon losses were greater from surface wood chips compared with buried wood chips, implying the importance of buried wood for total ecosystem carbon stabilization. Treatments associated with climate change also had an effect on the level of decomposition. DOC losses, soil water characteristics, and FTIR data demonstrate the importance of fungal community on the degree of decomposition and the resulting byproducts found throughout the soil.