Golden-winged Warbler habitat model validation for northern Wisconsin and central Minnesota

Between 1966 and 2003, the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) experienced declines of 3.4% per year in large parts of the breeding range and has been identified by Partners in Flight as one of 28 land birds requiring expedient action to prevent its continued decline. It is currently being considered for listing under the Endangered Species Act. A major step in advancing our understanding of the status and habitat preferences of Golden-winged Warbler populations in the Upper Midwest was initiated by the publication of new predictive spatially explicit Golden-winged Warbler habitat models for the northern Midwest. Here, I use original data on observed Golden-winged Warbler abundances in Wisconsin and Minnesota to compare two population models: the hierarchical spatial count (HSC) model with the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model. I assessed how well the field data compared to the model predictions and found that within Wisconsin, the HSC model performed slightly better than the HSI model whereas both models performed relatively equally in Minnesota. For the HSC model, I found a 10% error of commission in Wisconsin and a 24.2% error of commission for Minnesota. Similarly, the HSI model has a 23% error of commission in Minnesota; in Wisconsin due to limited areas where the HSI model predicted absences, there was incomplete data and I was unable to determine the error of commission for the HSI model. These are sites where the model predicted presences and the Golden-winged Warbler did not occur. To compare predicted abundance from the two models, a 3x3 contingency table was used. I found that when overlapped, the models do not complement one another in identifying Golden-winged Warbler presences. To calculate discrepancy between the models, the error of commission shows that the HSI model has only a 6.8% chance of correctly classifying absences in the HSC model. The HSC model has only 3.3% chance of correctly classifying absences in the HSI model. These findings highlight the importance of grasses for nesting, shrubs used for cover and foraging, and trees for song perches and foraging as key habitat characteristics for breeding territory occupancy by singing males.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC, CLIMATE, AND POLICY INDUCED CHANGES OF PHOSPHORUS EXPORT IN THE UNITED STATES LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS

Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.

High temperature, low cycle fatigue of a hybrid particulate/fiber aluminum metal-matrix composite

The effect of shot particles on the high temperature, low cycle fatigue of a hybrid fiber/particulate metal-matrix composite (MMC) was studied. Two hybrid composites with the general composition A356/35%SiC particle/5%Fiber (one without shot) were tested. It was found that shot particles acting as stress concentrators had little effect on the fatigue performance. It appears that fibers with a high silica content were more likely to debond from the matrix. Final failure of the composite was found to occur preferentially in the matrix. SiC particles fracture progressively during fatigue testing, leading to higher stress in the matrix, and final failure by matrix overload. A continuum mechanics based model was developed to predict failure in fatigue based on the tensile properties of the matrix and particles. By accounting for matrix yielding and recovery, composite creep and particle strength distribution, failure of the composite was predicted.

Modeling and classifying variable width riparian zones utilizing digital elevation models, flood height data, digital soil data and national wetlands inventory : a new approach for riparian zone delineation

Riparian zones are dynamic, transitional ecosystems between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems with well defined vegetation and soil characteristics. Development of an all-encompassing definition for riparian ecotones, because of their high variability, is challenging. However, there are two primary factors that all riparian ecotones are dependent on: the watercourse and its associated floodplain. Previous approaches to riparian boundary delineation have utilized fixed width buffers, but this methodology has proven to be inadequate as it only takes the watercourse into consideration and ignores critical geomorphology, associated vegetation and soil characteristics. Our approach offers advantages over other previously used methods by utilizing: the geospatial modeling capabilities of ArcMap GIS; a better sampling technique along the water course that can distinguish the 50-year flood plain, which is the optimal hydrologic descriptor of riparian ecotones; the Soil Survey Database (SSURGO) and National Wetland Inventory (NWI) databases to distinguish contiguous areas beyond the 50-year plain; and land use/cover characteristics associated with the delineated riparian zones. The model utilizes spatial data readily available from Federal and State agencies and geospatial clearinghouses. An accuracy assessment was performed to assess the impact of varying the 50-year flood height, changing the DEM spatial resolution (1, 3, 5 and 10m), and positional inaccuracies with the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) streams layer on the boundary placement of the delineated variable width riparian ecotones area. The result of this study is a robust and automated GIS based model attached to ESRI ArcMap software to delineate and classify variable-width riparian ecotones.

Modeling mechanical response of heterogeneous materials

Heterogeneous materials are ubiquitous in nature and as synthetic materials. These materials provide unique combination of desirable mechanical properties emerging from its heterogeneities at different length scales. Future structural and technological applications will require the development of advanced light weight materials with superior strength and toughness. Cost effective design of the advanced high performance synthetic materials by tailoring their microstructure is the challenge facing the materials design community. Prior knowledge of structure-property relationships for these materials is imperative for optimal design. Thus, understanding such relationships for heterogeneous materials is of primary interest. Furthermore, computational burden is becoming critical concern in several areas of heterogeneous materials design. Therefore, computationally efficient and accurate predictive tools are highly essential. In the present study, we mainly focus on mechanical behavior of soft cellular materials and tough biological material such as mussel byssus thread. Cellular materials exhibit microstructural heterogeneity by interconnected network of same material phase. However, mussel byssus thread comprises of two distinct material phases. A robust numerical framework is developed to investigate the micromechanisms behind the macroscopic response of both of these materials. Using this framework, effect of microstuctural parameters has been addressed on the stress state of cellular specimens during split Hopkinson pressure bar test. A voronoi tessellation based algorithm has been developed to simulate the cellular microstructure. Micromechanisms (microinertia, microbuckling and microbending) governing macroscopic behavior of cellular solids are investigated thoroughly with respect to various microstructural and loading parameters. To understand the origin of high toughness of mussel byssus thread, a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based optimization framework has been developed. It is found that two different material phases (collagens) of mussel byssus thread are optimally distributed along the thread. These applications demonstrate that the presence of heterogeneity in the system demands high computational resources for simulation and modeling. Thus, Higher Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) based surrogate modeling concept has been proposed to reduce computational complexity. The applicability of such methodology has been demonstrated in failure envelope construction and in multiscale finite element techniques. It is observed that surrogate based model can capture the behavior of complex material systems with sufficient accuracy. The computational algorithms presented in this thesis will further pave the way for accurate prediction of macroscopic deformation behavior of various class of advanced materials from their measurable microstructural features at a reasonable computational cost.

Lava discharge rate estimates from thermal infrared satellite data at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala

Time-averaged discharge rates (TADR) were calculated for five lava flows at Pacaya Volcano (Guatemala), using an adapted version of a previously developed satellite-based model. Imagery acquired during periods of effusive activity between the years 2000 and 2010 were obtained from two sensors of differing temporal and spatial resolutions; the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) Imager. A total of 2873 MODIS and 2642 GOES images were searched manually for volcanic “hot spots”. It was found that MODIS imagery, with superior spatial resolution, produced better results than GOES imagery, so only MODIS data were used for quantitative analyses. Spectral radiances were transformed into TADR via two methods; first, by best-fitting some of the parameters (i.e. density, vesicularity, crystal content, temperature change) of the TADR estimation model to match flow volumes previously estimated from ground surveys and aerial photographs, and second by measuring those parameters from lava samples to make independent estimates. A relatively stable relationship was defined using the second method, which suggests the possibility of estimating lava discharge rates in near-real-time during future volcanic crises at Pacaya.

Parameter estimation for transformer modeling

Large Power transformers, an aging and vulnerable part of our energy infrastructure, are at choke points in the grid and are key to reliability and security. Damage or destruction due to vandalism, misoperation, or other unexpected events is of great concern, given replacement costs upward of $2M and lead time of 12 months. Transient overvoltages can cause great damage and there is much interest in improving computer simulation models to correctly predict and avoid the consequences. EMTP (the Electromagnetic Transients Program) has been developed for computer simulation of power system transients. Component models for most equipment have been developed and benchmarked. Power transformers would appear to be simple. However, due to their nonlinear and frequency-dependent behaviors, they can be one of the most complex system components to model. It is imperative that the applied models be appropriate for the range of frequencies and excitation levels that the system experiences. Thus, transformer modeling is not a mature field and newer improved models must be made available. In this work, improved topologically-correct duality-based models are developed for three-phase autotransformers having five-legged, three-legged, and shell-form cores. The main problem in the implementation of detailed models is the lack of complete and reliable data, as no international standard suggests how to measure and calculate parameters. Therefore, parameter estimation methods are developed here to determine the parameters of a given model in cases where available information is incomplete. The transformer nameplate data is required and relative physical dimensions of the core are estimated. The models include a separate representation of each segment of the core, including hysteresis of the core, λ-i saturation characteristic, capacitive effects, and frequency dependency of winding resistance and core loss. Steady-state excitation, and de-energization and re-energization transients are simulated and compared with an earlier-developed BCTRAN-based model. Black start energization cases are also simulated as a means of model evaluation and compared with actual event records. The simulated results using the model developed here are reasonable and more correct than those of the BCTRAN-based model. Simulation accuracy is dependent on the accuracy of the equipment model and its parameters. This work is significant in that it advances existing parameter estimation methods in cases where the available data and measurements are incomplete. The accuracy of EMTP simulation for power systems including three-phase autotransformers is thus enhanced. Theoretical results obtained from this work provide a sound foundation for development of transformer parameter estimation methods using engineering optimization. In addition, it should be possible to refine which information and measurement data are necessary for complete duality-based transformer models. To further refine and develop the models and transformer parameter estimation methods developed here, iterative full-scale laboratory tests using high-voltage and high-power three-phase transformer would be helpful.

Energy and conductance state modeling of power electronic converters for DC microgrids

This document will demonstrate the methodology used to create an energy and conductance based model for power electronic converters. The work is intended to be a replacement for voltage and current based models which have limited applicability to the network nodal equations. Using conductance-based modeling allows direct application of load differential equations to the bus admittance matrix (Y-bus) with a unified approach. When applied directly to the Y-bus, the system becomes much easier to simulate since the state variables do not need to be transformed. The proposed transformation applies to loads, sources, and energy storage systems and is useful for DC microgrids. Transformed state models of a complete microgrid are compared to experimental results and show the models accurately reflect the system dynamic behavior.

A STUDY ON THE FEASIBILITY OF UNIVERSAL CHIP CONTROL IN MACHINING

A novel solution to the long standing issue of chip entanglement and breakage in metal cutting is presented in this dissertation. Through this work, an attempt is made to achieve universal chip control in machining by using chip guidance and subsequent breakage by backward bending (tensile loading of the chip's rough top surface) to effectively control long continuous chips into small segments. One big limitation of using chip breaker geometries in disposable carbide inserts is that the application range is limited to a narrow band depending on cutting conditions. Even within a recommended operating range, chip breakers do not function effectively as designed due to the inherent variations of the cutting process. Moreover, for a particular process, matching the chip breaker geometry with the right cutting conditions to achieve effective chip control is a very iterative process. The existence of a large variety of proprietary chip breaker designs further exacerbates the problem of easily implementing a robust and comprehensive chip control technique. To address the need for a robust and universal chip control technique, a new method is proposed in this work. By using a single tool top form geometry coupled with a tooling system for inducing chip breaking by backward bending, the proposed method achieves comprehensive chip control over a wide range of cutting conditions. A geometry based model is developed to predict a variable edge inclination angle that guides the chip flow to a predetermined target location. Chip kinematics for the new tool geometry is examined via photographic evidence from experimental cutting trials. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are used to characterize the chip kinematics. Results from the chip characterization studies indicate that the chip flow and final form show a remarkable consistency across multiple levels of workpiece and tool configurations as well as cutting conditions. A new tooling system is then designed to comprehensively break the chip by backward bending. Test results with the new tooling system prove that by utilizing the chip guidance and backward bending mechanism, long continuous chips can be more consistently broken into smaller segments that are generally deemed acceptable or good chips. It is found that the proposed tool can be applied effectively over a wider range of cutting conditions than present chip breakers thus taking possibly the first step towards achieving universal chip control in machining.