SLOPE STABILITY ANALYSIS OF MOUNT MEAGER, SOUTH-WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA

The Mount Meager Volcanic Complex (MMVC) in south-western British Columbia is a potentially active, hydrothermally altered massif comprising a series of steep, glaciated peaks. Climatic conditions and glacial retreat has led to the further weathering, exposure and de-buttressing of steep slopes composed of weak, unconsolidated material. This has resulted in an increased frequency of landslide events over the past few decades, many of which have dammed the rivers bordering the Complex. The breach of these debris dams presents a risk of flooding to the downstream communities. Preliminary mapping showed there are numerous sites around the Complex where future failure could occur. Some of these areas are currently undergoing progressive slope movement and display features to support this such as anti-scarps and tension cracks. The effect of water infiltration on stability was modelled using the Rocscience program Slide 6.0. The main site of focus was Mount Meager in the south- east of the Complex where the most recent landslide took place. Two profiles through Mount Meager were analysed along with one other location in the northern section of the MMVC, where instability had been detected. The lowest Factor of Safety (FOS) for each profile was displayed and an estimate of the volume which could be generated was deduced. A hazard map showing the inundation zones for various volumes of debris flows was created from simulations using LAHARZ. Results showed the massif is unstable, even before infiltration. Varying the amount of infiltration appears to have no significant impact on the FOS annually implying that small changes of any kind could also trigger failure. Further modelling could be done to assess the impact of infiltration over shorter time scales. The Slide models show the volume of material that could be delivered to the Lillooet River Valley to be of the order of 109 m3 which, based on the LAHARZ simulations, would completely inundate the valley and communities downstream. A major hazard of this is that the removal of such a large amount of material has the potential to trigger an explosive eruption of the geothermal system and renew volcanic activity. Although events of this size are infrequent, there is a significant risk to the communities downstream of the complex.

GROUND-BASED AND SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING OF PAROXYSMAL ERUPTIONS AT ETNA VOLCANO, 2011-2012.

Mt Etna's activity has increased during the last decade with a tendency towards more explosive eruptions that produce paroxysmal lava fountains. From January 2011 to April 2012, 25 lava fountaining episodes took place at Etna's New South-East Crater (NSEC). Improved understanding of the mechanism driving these explosive basaltic eruptions is needed to reduce volcanic hazards. This type of activity produces high sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, associated with lava flows and ash fall-out, but to date the SO2 emissions associated with Etna's lava fountains have been poorly constrained. The Ultraviolet (UV) Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA's Aura satellite and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua were used to measure the SO2 loadings. Ground-based data from the Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand (OPGC) L-band Doppler radar, VOLDORAD 2B, used in collaboration with the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Catania (INGV-CT), also detected the associated ash plumes, giving precise timing and duration for the lava fountains. This study resulted in the first detailed analysis of the OMI and AIRS SO2 data for Etna's lava fountains during the 2011-2012 eruptive cycle. The HYSPLIT trajectory model is used to constrain the altitude of the observed SO2 clouds, and results show that the SO2 emission usually coincided with the lava fountain peak intensity as detected by VOLDORAD. The UV OMI and IR AIRS SO2 retrievals permit quantification of the SO2 loss rate in the volcanic SO2 clouds, many of which were tracked for several days after emission. A first attempt to quantitatively validate AIRS SO2 retrievals with OMI data revealed a good correlation for high altitude SO2 clouds. Using estimates of the emitted SO2 at the time each paroxysm, we observe a correlation with the inter-paroxysm repose time. We therefore suggest that our data set supports the collapsing foam (CF) model [1] as driving mechanism for the paroxysmal events at the NSEC. Using VOLDORAD-based estimates of the erupted magma mass, we observe a large excess of SO2 in the eruption clouds. Satellite measurements indicate that SO2 emissions from Etnean lava fountains can reach the lower stratosphere and hence could pose a hazard to aviation. [1] Parfitt E.A (2004). A discussion of the mechanisms of explosive basaltic eruptions. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 134, 77-107.