5 resultados para social management of the risk

em Digital Commons - Michigan Tech


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Invasive plant species threaten natural areas by reducing biodiversity and altering ecosystem functions. They also impact agriculture by reducing crop and livestock productivity. Millions of dollars are spent on invasive species control each year, and traditionally, herbicides are used to manage invasive species. Herbicides have human and environmental health risks associated with them; therefore, it is essential that land managers and stakeholders attempt to reduce these risks by utilizing the principles of integrated weed management. Integrated weed management is a practice that incorporates a variety of measures and focuses on the ecology of the invasive plant to manage it. Roadways are high risk areas that have high incidence of invasive species. Roadways act as conduits for invasive species spread and are ideal harborages for population growth; therefore, roadways should be a primary target for invasive species control. There are four stages in the invasion process which an invasive species must overcome: transport, establishment, spread, and impact. The aim of this dissertation was to focus on these four stages and examine the mechanisms underlying the progression from one stage to the next, while also developing integrated weed management strategies. The target species were Phragmites australis, common reed, and Cisrium arvense, Canada thistle. The transport and establishment risks of P. australis can be reduced by removing rhizome fragments from soil when roadside maintenance is performed. The establishment and spread of C. arvense can be reduced by planting particular resistant species, e.g. Heterotheca villosa, especially those that can reduce light transmittance to the soil. Finally, the spread and impact of C. arvense can be mitigated on roadsides through the use of the herbicide aminopyralid. The risks associated with herbicide drift produced by application equipment can be reduced by using the Wet-Blade herbicide application system.

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The purpose of this research is to examine the role of the mining company office in the management of the copper industry in Michigan’s Keweenaw Peninsula between 1901 and 1946. Two of the largest and most influential companies were examined – the Calumet & Hecla Mining Company and the Quincy Mining Company. Both companies operated for more than forty years under general managers who were arguably the most influential people in the management of each company. James MacNaughton, general manager at Calumet and Hecla, worked from 1901 through 1941; Charles Lawton, general manager at Quincy Mining Company, worked from 1905 through 1946. In this case, both of these managers were college-educated engineers and adopted scientific management techniques to operate their respective companies. This research focused on two main goals. The first goal of this project was to address the managerial changes in Michigan’s copper mining offices of the early twentieth century. This included the work of MacNaughton and Lawton, along with analysis of the office structures themselves and what changes occurred through time. The second goal of the project was to create a prototype virtual exhibit for use at the Quincy Mining Company office. A virtual exhibit will allow visitors the opportunity to visit the office virtually, experiencing the office as an office worker would have in the early twentieth century. To meet both goals, this project used various research materials, including archival sources, oral histories, and material culture to recreate the history of mining company management in the Copper Country.

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The Cliff Mine, an archaeological site situated on the Keweenaw Peninsula of Michigan, is the location of the first successful attempt to mine native copper in North America. Under the management of the Pittsburgh & Boston Mining Company from 1845-1879, two-third of the Cliff’s mineral output was in the form of mass copper, some pieces of which weighed over 5 tons when removed from the ground. The unique nature of mass copper and the Cliff Mine’s handling of it make it one of the best examples of early mining processes in the Keweenaw District. Mass copper only constituted 2% of the entire product of the Lake Superior copper districts, and the story of early mining on the Peninsula is generally overshadowed by later, longer running mines such as the Calumet & Helca and Quincy Mining Companies. Operating into the mid-twentieth century, the size and duration of these later mines would come to define the region, though they would not have been possible without the Cliff’s early success. Research on the Cliff Mine has previously focused on social and popular history, neglecting the structural remains. However, these remains are physical clues to the technical processes that defined early mining on the Keweenaw. Through archaeological investigations, these processes and their associated networks were documented as part of the 2010 Michigan Technological Archaeology Field School’s curriculum. The project will create a visual representation of these processes utilizing Geographic Information Systems software. This map will be a useful aid in future research, community engagement and possible future interpretive planning.

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The time course of lake recovery after a reduction in external loading of nutrients is often controlled by conditions in the sediment. Remediation of eutrophication is hindered by the presence of legacy organic carbon deposits, that exert a demand on the terminal electron acceptors of the lake and contribute to problems such as internal nutrient recycling, absence of sediment macrofauna, and flux of toxic metal species into the water column. Being able to quantify the timing of a lake’s response requires determination of the magnitude and lability, i.e., the susceptibility to biodegradation, of the organic carbon within the legacy deposit. This characterization is problematic for organic carbon in sediments because of the presence of different fractions of carbon, which vary from highly labile to refractory. The lability of carbon under varied conditions was tested with a bioassay approach. It was found that the majority of the organic material found in the sediments is conditionally-labile, where mineralization potential is dependent on prevailing conditions. High labilities were noted under oxygenated conditions and a favorable temperature of 30 °C. Lability decreased when oxygen was removed, and was further reduced when the temperature was dropped to the hypolimnetic average of 8° C . These results indicate that reversible preservation mechanisms exist in the sediment, and are able to protect otherwise labile material from being mineralized under in situ conditions. The concept of an active sediment layer, a region in the sediments in which diagenetic reactions occur (with nothing occurring below it), was examined through three lines of evidence. Initially, porewater profiles of oxygen, nitrate, sulfate/total sulfide, ETSA (Electron Transport System Activity- the activity of oxygen, nitrate, iron/manganese, and sulfate), and methane were considered. It was found through examination of the porewater profiles that the edge of diagenesis occurred around 15-20 cm. Secondly, historical and contemporary TOC profiles were compared to find the point at which the profiles were coincident, indicating the depth at which no change has occurred over the (13 year) interval between core collections. This analysis suggested that no diagenesis has occurred in Onondaga Lake sediment below a depth of 15 cm. Finally, the time to 99% mineralization, the t99, was viewed by using a literature estimate of the kinetic rate constant for diagenesis. A t99 of 34 years, or approximately 30 cm of sediment depth, resulted for the slowly decaying carbon fraction. Based on these three lines of evidence , an active sediment layer of 15-20 cm is proposed for Onondaga Lake, corresponding to a time since deposition of 15-20 years. While a large legacy deposit of conditionally-labile organic material remains in the sediments of Onondaga Lake, it becomes clear that preservation, mechanisms that act to shield labile organic carbon from being degraded, protects this material from being mineralized and exerting a demand on the terminal electron acceptors of the lake. This has major implications for management of the lake, as it defines the time course of lake recovery following a reduction in nutrient loading.

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Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.