Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Assessment of soil erosion vulnerability in rural communities in the vicinity of Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas, Mexico : a physical and sociological approach

Soil erosion is a natural geological phenomenon resulting from removal and transportation of soil particles by water, wind, ice and gravity. As soil erosion may be affected from cultural factors as well. The physical and social phenomena of soil erosion are researched in six communities in the upper part of Rio Grijalva Basin in the vicinity of Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas, Mexico. For this study, the USDA RUSLE model was applied to estimate soil erosion rates in the six communities based on the available data. The RUSLE model is based on soil properties, topography, and land cover and management factors. These results showed that estimated soil erosion rates ranged from a high of 2,050 metric ton ha-1 yr-1 to a low of 100 metric ton ha-1 yr-1. A survey concerning knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) related to soil erosion was also conducted in all 236 households in the six communities. The main findings of the KAP survey were: 69% of respondents did not know what soil erosion was, while over 40% of the population perceived that hurricanes are the biggest factors that cause soil erosion, and about 20 % of the interviewees said that the landslides are the consequences of the soil erosion. People in communities did not perceive cultural factors as important in conservation efforts for reduce vulnerability to erosion; therefore, the results obtained are suggested to be useful for informing efforts to educate stakeholders.

Adapting health-risk communication to the specific cultural contexts of diverse populations : an assessment of malaria-treatment programs in Liberia

Drawing on theories of technical communication, rhetoric, literacy, language and culture, and medical anthropology, this dissertation explores how local culture and traditions can be incorporated into health-risk-communication-program design and implementation, including the design and dissemination of health-risk messages. In a modern world with increasing global economic partnerships, mounting health and environmental risks, and cross-cultural collaborations, those who interact with people of different cultures have “a moral obligation to take those cultures seriously, including their social organization and values” (Hahn and Inhorn 10). Paradoxically, at the same time as we must carefully adapt health, safety, and environmental-risk messages to diverse cultures and populations, we must also recognize the increasing extent to which we are all becoming part of one, vast, interrelated global village. This, too, has a significant impact on the ways in which healthcare plans should be designed, communicated, and implemented. Because communicating across diverse cultures requires a system for “bridging the gap between individual differences and negotiating individual realities” (Kim and Gudykunst 50), both administrators and beneficiaries of malaria-treatment-and-control programs (MTCPs) in Liberia were targeted to participate in this study. A total of 105 people participated in this study: 21 MTCP administrators (including designers and implementers) completed survey questionnaires on program design, implementation, and outcomes; and 84 MTCP beneficiaries (e.g., traditional leaders and young adults) were interviewed about their knowledge of malaria and methods for communicating health risks in their tribe or culture. All participants showed a tremendous sense of courage, commitment, resilience, and pragmatism, especially in light of the fact that many of them live and work under dire socioeconomic conditions (e.g., no electricity and poor communication networks). Although many MTCP beneficiaries interviewed for this study had bed nets in their homes, a majority (46.34 percent) used a combination of traditional herbal medicine and Western medicine to treat malaria. MTCP administrators who participated in this study rated the impacts of their programs on reducing malaria in Liberia as moderately successful (61.90 percent) or greatly successful (38.10 percent), and they offered a variety of insights on what they might do differently in the future to incorporate local culture and traditions into program design and implementation. Participating MTCP administrators and beneficiaries differed in their understanding of what “cultural incorporation” meant, but they agreed that using local indigenous languages to communicate health-risk messages was essential for effective health-risk communication. They also suggested that understanding the literacy practices and linguistic cultures of the local people is essential to communicating health risks across diverse cultures and populations.

Life cycle assessment of trayless dining

Universities in the United States are applying more sustainable approaches to their dining service operations. "The increase in social consciousness and environmental stewardship on college campuses has spurred an array of new and innovative sustainability programs"(ARAMARK Higher Education 2008). University residence dining is typically cafeteria style, with students using trays to carry food. Studies report that food served without trays substantially reduces food waste and water and electrical consumption associated with washing trays. Commonly, these reported results are estimates and not measurements taken under actual operating conditions. This study utilizes measurements recorded under actual dining service conditions in student residence halls at Michigan Technological University to develop the following: 1) operational-specific data on the issues and potential savings associated with a conversion to trayless dining and 2) life cycle assessment (LCA) cost and environmental impact analyses comparing dining with and without trays. For the LCA, the entire life cycle of the system is considered, from the manufacturing to the usage and disposal phases. The study shows that trayless dining reduces food waste because diners carry less food. The total savings for the diner shifts when not using trays for the standard academic year (205 days), with an average number of 700 diners, is 7,032 pounds of food waste from the pre-rinse area (33% reduction) and 3,157 pounds of food waste from the pan washing area (39% reduction). In addition, for each day of the study, the diners consumed more food during the trayless portion of the experiment. One possible explanation for the increased food consumption during this short duration study could be that the diners found it more convenient to eat the extra food on their plate rather than carrying it back for disposal. The trayless dining experiment shows a reduction in dishwasher water, steam, and electrical consumption for each day of the study. The average reduction of dishwasher water, steam, and electrical consumption over the duration of the study were 10.7%, 9.5%, and 6.4% respectively. Trayless dining implementation would result in a decrease of 4,305 gallons of consumption and wastewater discharge, 2.87 mm BTU of steam consumption, and 158 kWh of electrical consumption for the dinner shift over the academic year. Results of the LCA indicate a total savings of $190.4 when trays are not used during the dinner shift. Trayless dining requires zero CO2 eq and cumulative energy demand in the manufacturing stage, reductions of 1005 kg CO2 eq and 861 MJ eq in the usage phase, and reductions of 6458 kg CO2 eq and 1821 MJ eq in the end of the life cycle.

Estimating greenhouse gas emissions of highway construction and rehabilitation to support pavement life cycle assessment

Highway infrastructure plays a significant role in society. The building and upkeep of America’s highways provide society the necessary means of transportation for goods and services needed to develop as a nation. However, as a result of economic and social development, vast amounts of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are emitted into the atmosphere contributing to global climate change. In recognizing this, future policies may mandate the monitoring of GHG emissions from public agencies and private industries in order to reduce the effects of global climate change. To effectively reduce these emissions, there must be methods that agencies can use to quantify the GHG emissions associated with constructing and maintaining the nation’s highway infrastructure. Current methods for assessing the impacts of highway infrastructure include methodologies that look at the economic impacts (costs) of constructing and maintaining highway infrastructure over its life cycle. This is known as Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA). With the recognition of global climate change, transportation agencies and contractors are also investigating the environmental impacts that are associated with highway infrastructure construction and rehabilitation. A common tool in doing so is the use of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Traditionally, LCA is used to assess the environmental impacts of products or processes. LCA is an emerging concept in highway infrastructure assessment and is now being implemented and applied to transportation systems. This research focuses on life cycle GHG emissions associated with the construction and rehabilitation of highway infrastructure using a LCA approach. Life cycle phases of the highway section include; the material acquisition and extraction, construction and rehabilitation, and service phases. Departing from traditional approaches that tend to use LCA as a way to compare alternative pavement materials or designs based on estimated inventories, this research proposes a shift to a context sensitive process-based approach that uses actual observed construction and performance data to calculate greenhouse gas emissions associated with highway construction and rehabilitation. The goal is to support strategies that reduce long-term environmental impacts. Ultimately, this thesis outlines techniques that can be used to assess GHG emissions associated with construction and rehabilitation operations to support the overall pavement LCA.