Effects of management on native and exotic plant communities in Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Ecological disturbances may be caused by a range of biotic and abiotic factors. Among these are disturbances that result from human activities such as the introduction of exotic plants and land management activities. This dissertation addresses both of these types of disturbance in ecosystems in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Invasive plants are a significant cause of disturbance at Pictured Rocks Natural Lakeshore. Management of invasive plants is dependent on understanding what areas are at risk of being invaded, what the consequences of an invasion are on native plant communities and how effective different tools are for managing the invasive species. A series of risk models are described that predict three stages of invasion (introduction, establishment and spread) for eight invasive plant species at Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore. These models are specific to this location and include species for which models have not previously been produced. The models were tested by collecting point data throughout the park to demonstrate their effectiveness for future detection of invasive plants in the park. Work to describe the impacts and management of invasive plants focused on spotted knapweed in the sensitive Grand Sable Dunes area of Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore. Impacts of spotted knapweed were assessed by comparing vegetation communities in areas with varying amounts of spotted knapweed. This work showed significant increases in species diversity in areas invaded by knapweed, apparently as a result of the presence of a number of non-dune species that have become established in spotted knapweed invaded areas. An experiment was carried out to compare annual spot application of two herbicides, Milestone® and Transline® to target spotted knapweed. This included an assessment of impacts of this type of treatment on non-target species. There was no difference in the effectiveness of the two herbicides, and both significantly reduced the density of spotted knapweed during the course of the study. Areas treated with herbicide developed a higher percent cover of grasses during the study, and suffered limited negative impacts on some sensitive dune species such as beach pea and dune stitchwort, and on some other non-dune species such as hawkweed. The use of these herbicides to reduce the density of spotted knapweed appears to be feasible over large scales.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC, CLIMATE, AND POLICY INDUCED CHANGES OF PHOSPHORUS EXPORT IN THE UNITED STATES LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS

Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.