Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

MULTIMODAL PERFORMANCE AND RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE PIERRE AUGER OBSERVATORY NORTH SITE

The Pierre Auger Cosmic Ray Observatory North site employs a large array of surface detector stations (tanks) to detect the secondary particle showers generated by ultra-high energy cosmic rays. Due to the rare nature of ultra-high energy cosmic rays, it is important to have a high reliability on tank communications, ensuring no valuable data is lost. The Auger North site employs a peer-to-peer paradigm, the Wireless Architecture for Hard Real-Time Embedded Networks (WAHREN), designed specifically for highly reliable message delivery over fixed networks, under hard real-time deadlines. The WAHREN design included two retransmission protocols, Micro- and Macro- retransmission. To fully understand how each retransmission protocol increased the reliability of communications, this analysis evaluated the system without using either retransmission protocol (Case-0), both Micro- and Macro-retransmission individually (Micro and Macro), and Micro- and Macro-retransmission combined. This thesis used a multimodal modeling methodology to prove that a performance and reliability analysis of WAHREN was possible, and provided the results of the analysis. A multimodal approach was necessary because these processes were driven by different mathematical models. The results from this analysis can be used as a framework for making design decisions for the Auger North communication system.