Do increases in oil prices precede U.S. recessions?

This thesis examines the relationship between oil prices and economic activity, and it attempts to address the question: do increases in oil prices (oil shocks) precede U.S. recessions? This paper also applied macroeconomics, either through the direct use of a macroeconomic point of view or using a combination of mathematical and statistical models. Two mathematical and statistical models are used to determine the ability of oil prices to predict recessions in the United States. First, using the binary cyclical (Bry-Boschan method) indicator procedure to test the turning point of oil prices compared with turning points in GDP finds that oil prices almost always turn five month before a recession, suggesting that an oil shock might occur before a recession. Second, the Granger causality test shows that oil prices change do Granger cause U.S. recessions, indicating that oil prices are a useful signal to indicate a U.S. recession. Finally, combining this analysis with the literature, there are several potential explanations that the spike in oil prices result in slower GDP growth and are a contributing factor to U.S. recessions.

Financial decision making about found oil and gas in Ghana : real options vs. traditional methods

This research is a study of the use of capital budgeting methods for investment decisions. It uses both the traditional methods and the newly introduced approach called the real options analysis to make a decision. The research elucidates how capital budgeting can be done when analysts encounter projects with high uncertainty and are capital intensive, for example oil and gas production. It then uses the oil and gas find in Ghana as a case study to support its argument. For a clear understanding a thorough literature review was done, which highlights the advantages and disadvantages of both methods. The revenue that the project will generate and the costs of production were obtained from the predictions by analysts from GNPC and compared to others experts’ opinion. It then applied both the traditional and real option valuation on the oil and gas find in Ghana to determine the project’s feasibility. Although, there are some short falls in real option analysis that are presented in this research, it is still helpful in valuing projects that are capital intensive with high volatility due to the strategic flexibility management possess in their decision making. It also suggests that traditional methods of evaluation should still be maintained and be used to value projects that have no options or those with options yet the options do not have significant impact on the project. The research points out the economic ripples the production of oil and gas will have on Ghana’s economy should the project be undertaken. These ripples include economic growth, massive job creation and reduction of the balance of trade deficit for the country. The long run effect is an eventually improvement of life of the citizens. It is also belief that the production of gas specifically can be used to generate electricity in Ghana which would enable the country to have a more stable and reliable power source necessary to attract more foreign direct investment.

Cloning and characterization of the genes involved in cambial growth in response to elevated [CO2]

Aspen (Populus tremuloides) trees growing under elevated [CO2] at a free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) site have produced significantly more biomass compared to control trees. The molecular mechanisms underlying the observed increase in biomass productivity was investigated by producing transcriptomic profiles of the vascular cambium zone (VCZ) and leaves, followed by a comparative study to identify genes and pathways that showed significant changes following long-term exposure to elevated [CO2]. This study is mainly to verify if genetic modification of a few selected candidate genes including CAP1, CKX6, and ASML2 that are expressed in vascular cambium in response to elevated [CO2] can cause the changes in plant growth and development. To this end, these three genes were cloned into both sense and antisense constructs. Then antisense and sense transgenic lines of above-mentioned genes were developed. 15 events were generated for 5 constructs, which were confirmed with regular PCR and RT-PCR. Confirmed plants were planted in greenhouse for growth and phenotypic characterization. The expression of CAP1, CKX6 and ASML2 in antisense plants was measured by real-time RT-PCR, and the changes caused by gene interference in cambial growth were studies by analyzing the microscopic sections made from the antisense transgenic plants. It has been found that 1) CAP1 is mainly expressed in xylem and root. 2) RNAi suppression of CAP1 significantly affected height and diameter. 3) CAP1, ASML2 and CKX6 affected xylem and phloem cell proliferation and elongation. Due to the delay in regenerating sense transgenic plants, the characterization of sense transgenic plants is limited to growth only.