Slope stability analysis of the Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala, using limit equilibrium and finite element method

The Pacaya volcanic complex is part of the Central American volcanic arc, which is associated with the subduction of the Cocos tectonic plate under the Caribbean plate. Located 30 km south of Guatemala City, Pacaya is situated on the southern rim of the Amatitlan Caldera. It is the largest post-caldera volcano, and has been one of Central America’s most active volcanoes over the last 500 years. Between 400 and 2000 years B.P, the Pacaya volcano had experienced a huge collapse, which resulted in the formation of horseshoe-shaped scarp that is still visible. In the recent years, several smaller collapses have been associated with the activity of the volcano (in 1961 and 2010) affecting its northwestern flanks, which are likely to be induced by the local and regional stress changes. The similar orientation of dry and volcanic fissures and the distribution of new vents would likely explain the reactivation of the pre-existing stress configuration responsible for the old-collapse. This paper presents the first stability analysis of the Pacaya volcanic flank. The inputs for the geological and geotechnical models were defined based on the stratigraphical, lithological, structural data, and material properties obtained from field survey and lab tests. According to the mechanical characteristics, three lithotechnical units were defined: Lava, Lava-Breccia and Breccia-Lava. The Hoek and Brown’s failure criterion was applied for each lithotechnical unit and the rock mass friction angle, apparent cohesion, and strength and deformation characteristics were computed in a specified stress range. Further, the stability of the volcano was evaluated by two-dimensional analysis performed by Limit Equilibrium (LEM, ROCSCIENCE) and Finite Element Method (FEM, PHASE 2 7.0). The stability analysis mainly focused on the modern Pacaya volcano built inside the collapse amphitheatre of “Old Pacaya”. The volcanic instability was assessed based on the variability of safety factor using deterministic, sensitivity, and probabilistic analysis considering the gravitational instability and the effects of external forces such as magma pressure and seismicity as potential triggering mechanisms of lateral collapse. The preliminary results from the analysis provide two insights: first, the least stable sector is on the south-western flank of the volcano; second, the lowest safety factor value suggests that the edifice is stable under gravity alone, and the external triggering mechanism can represent a likely destabilizing factor.

FAULT MORPHOLOGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN KENYAN PORTION OF THE EAST AFRICAN RIFT VALLEY

Faults form quickly, geologically speaking, with sharp, crisp step-like profiles. Logic dictates that erosion wears away this "sharpness" or angularity creating more rounded features. As erosion occurs, debris accumulates at the base of the scarp slope. The stable end point of this process is when the scarp slope approaches an ideal sigmoid shape. This theory of fault end process, in combination with a new method developed in this report for fault profile delineation, has the potential to enable observation and categorization of fault profiles over large, diverse swaths of fault formation-- in remote areas such as the Southern Kenyan Rift Valley. This up-to date method uses remote sensing data and the digitizer tool in Global Mapper to create shape files of fault segments. This method can provide further evidence to support the notion that sigmoidal- shaped profiles represent a natural endpoint of the erosional process of fault scarps. Over time, faults of many different ages would exist in this similar shape over a wide region. However, keeping in mind that other processes can be at work on scarps-- most notably drainage patterns, when anomalies in profiles are observed, reactivation in some form possibly has occurred.