Spatial and temporal analysis of land cover and landscape structure change in Zagros Forests

The Zagros oak forests in Western Iran are critically important to the sustainability of the region. These forests have undergone dramatic declines in recent decades. We evaluated the utility of the non-parametric Random Forest classification algorithm for land cover classification of Zagros landscapes, and selected the best spatial and spectral predictive variables. The algorithm resulted in high overall classification accuracies (>85%) and also equivalent classification accuracies for the datasets from the three different sensors. We evaluated the associations between trends in forest area and structure with trends in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, to identify the most likely driving forces creating deforestation and landscape structure change. We used available socioeconomic (urban and rural population, and rural income), and climatic (mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature) data for two provinces in northern Zagros. The most correlated driving force of forest area loss was urban population, and climatic variables to a lesser extent. Landscape structure changes were more closely associated with rural population. We examined the effects of scale changes on the results from spatial pattern analysis. We assessed the impacts of eight years of protection in a protected area in northern Zagros at two different scales (both grain and extent). The effects of protection on the amount and structure of forests was scale dependent. We evaluated the nature and magnitude of changes in forest area and structure over the entire Zagros region from 1972 to 2009. We divided the Zagros region in 167 Landscape Units and developed two measures— Deforestation Sensitivity (DS) and Connectivity Sensitivity (CS) — for each landscape unit as the percent of the time steps that forest area and ECA experienced a decrease of greater than 10% in either measure. A considerable loss in forest area and connectivity was detected, but no sudden (nonlinear) changes were detected at the spatial and temporal scale of the study. Connectivity loss occurred more rapidly than forest loss due to the loss of connecting patches. More connectivity was lost in southern Zagros due to climatic differences and different forms of traditional land use.

Evaluating stress patterns for Plio-Quaternary brittle deformation along the Calama-Olacapato-El Toro fault zone, Central Andes

Understanding the geometry and kinematics of the major structures of an orogen is important to elucidate its style of deformation, as well as its tectonic evolution. We describe the temporal and spatial changes in the state of stress of the trans-orogen area of the Calama-Olacapato-El Toro (COT) Fault Zone in the Central Andes, at about 24°S within the northern portion of the Puna Plateau between the Argentina-Chile border. The importance of the COT derives principally from the Quaternary-Holocene activity recognized on some segments, which may shed new light on its possible control on Quaternary volcanism and on the seismic hazard evaluation of the area. Field geological surveys along with kinematic analysis and numerical inversion of ∼140 new fault-slip measurements have revealed that this portion of the COT zone, previously considered a continuous, long-lived lineament, in reality has been subjected to three different kinematic regimes: 1) a Miocene transpressional phase with the maximum principal stress (σ1) chiefly trending NNE-SSW; 2) an extensional phase that started by 9 Ma, with a horizontal NW-SE-striking minimum principal stress (σ3) – permutations between σ2 and σ3 axes have been recognized at two sites – and 3) a left-lateral strike-slip phase with a horizontal ∼E-W &sigma1 and ∼N-S σ3 dating to the Late Pliocene-Quaternary. Spatially, in the Quaternary, the left-lateral component decreases toward the westernmost tip of the COT, where it transitions to extension; this produced to a N-S horst and graben structure. Hence, even if transcurrence is still active in the eastern portion of the COT, as focal mechanisms of crustal earthquakes indicate, our study demonstrates that extension is becoming the predominant structural style of deformation, at least in the western region. These major temporal and spatial changes in the tectonic regimes are attributed in part to changes in the magnitude of the boundary forces due to subduction processes. The overall orogen-perpendicular extension might be the result of vertical stress larger than both the horizontal stresses induced by gravitational effect of a thickened crust.

DIFFERENTIATING PATH AND SOURCE PROCESSES IN COMPLEX GEOLOGIC STRUCTURE THROUGH PASSIVE SEISMIC STUDIES: BERING GLACIER, ALASKA AND VILLARRICA VOLCANO, CHILE

Measuring shallow seismic sources provides a way to reveal processes that cannot be directly observed, but the correct interpretation and value of these signals depend on the ability to distinguish source from propagation effects. Furthermore, seismic signals produced by a resonating source can look almost identical to those produced by impulsive sources, but modified along the path. Distinguishing these two phenomena can be accomplished by examining the wavefield with small aperture arrays or by recording seismicity near to the source when possible. We examine source and path effects in two different environments: Bering Glacier, Alaska and Villarrica Volcano, Chile. Using three 3-element seismic arrays near the terminus of the Bering Glacier, we have identified and located both terminus calving and iceberg breakup events. We show that automated array analysis provided a robust way to locate icequake events using P waves. This analysis also showed that arrivals within the long-period codas were incoherent within the small aperture arrays, demonstrating that these codas previously attributed to crack resonance were in fact a result of a complicated path rather than a source effect. At Villarrica Volcano, seismometers deployed from near the vent to ~10 km revealed that a several cycle long-period source signal recorded at the vent appeared elongated in the far-field. We used data collected from the stations nearest to the vent to invert for the repetitive seismic source, and found it corresponded to a shallow force within the lava lake oriented N75°E and dipping 7° from horizontal. We also used this repetitive signal to search the data for additional seismic and infrasonic properties which included calculating seismic-acoustic delay times, volcano acoustic-seismic ratios and energies, event frequency, and real-time seismic amplitude measurements. These calculations revealed lava lake level and activity fluctuations consistent with lava lake level changes inferred from the persistent infrasonic tremor.