Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Cladophora, mass transport, and the nearshore phosphorus shunt

Excessive Cladophora growth in the Great Lakes has led to beach fouling and the temporary closure of nuclear power plants and has been associated with avian botulism and the persistence of human pathogens. As the growth-limiting nutrient for Cladophora, phosphorus is the appropriate target for management efforts. Dreissenids (zebra and quagga mussels) have the ability to capture particulate phase phosphorus (otherwise unavailable to Cladophora) and release it in a soluble, available form. The significance of this potential nutrient source is, in part, influenced by the interplay between phosphorus flux from the mussel bed and turbulent mixing in establishing the phosphorus levels to which Cladophora is exposed. It is hypothesized that under quiescent conditions phosphorus will accumulate near the sediment-water interface, setting up vertical phosphorus gradients and favorable conditions for resource delivery to Cladophora. These gradients would be eliminated under conditions of wind mixing, reducing the significance of the dreissenid-mediated nutrient contribution. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) levels were monitored over dreissenid beds (densities on the order of 350•m-2 and 3000∙m-2) at a site 8 m deep in Lake Michigan. Monitoring was based on the deployment of Modified Hesslein Samplers which collected samples for SRP analysis over a distance of 34 cm above the bottom in 2.5 cm intervals. Deployment intervals were established to capture a wind regime (calm, windy) that persisted for an interval consistent with the sampler equilibration time of 7 hours. Results indicate that increased mussel density leads to an increased concentration boundary layer; increased wind speed leads to entrainment of the concentration boundary layer; and increased duration of quiescent periods leads to an increased concentration boundary layer. This concentration boundary layer is of ecological significance and forms in the region inhabited by Cladophora

Bacteriorhodopsin protein hybrids for chemical and biological sensing

Bacteriorhodopsin (bR), an optoelectric protein found in Halobacterium salinarum, has the potential for use in protein hybrid sensing systems. Bacteriorhodopsin has no intrinsic sensing properties, however molecular and chemical tools permit production of bR protein hybrids with transducing and sensing properties. As a proof of concept, a maltose binding protein-bacteriorhodopsin ([MBP]-bR) hybrid was developed. It was proposed that the energy associated with target molecule binding, maltose, to the hybrid sensor protein would provide a means to directly modulate the electrical output from the MBP-bR bio-nanosensor platform. The bR protein hybrid is produced by linkage between bR (principal component of purified purple membrane [PM]) and MBP, which was produced by use of a plasmid expression vector system in Escherichia coli and purified utilizing an amylose affinity column. These proteins were chemically linked using 1-ethyl-3-[3-dimethylaminopropyl]carbodiimide hydrochloride (EDC) and N-hydroxysuccinimide (NHS), which facilitates formation of an amide bond between a primary carboxylic acid and a primary amine. The presence of novel protein hybrids after chemical linkage was analyzed by SDSPAGE. Soluble proteins (MBP-only derivatives and unlinked MBP) were separated from insoluble proteins (PM derivatives and unlinked PM) using size exclusion chromatography. The putatively identified MBP-bR protein hybrid, in addition to unlinked bR, was collected. This sample was normalized for bR concentration to native PM and both were deposited onto indium tin oxide (ITO) coated glass slides by electrophoretic sedimentation. The photoresponse of both samples, activated using 100 Watt tungsten lamp at 10 cm distance, were equal at 175 mV. Testing of deposited PM with 1 mM sucrose or 1 mM maltose showed no change in the photoresponse of the xiv material, however addition of 1 mM maltose to the deposited MBP-bR linked hybrid material elicited a 57% decrease in photoresponse indicating a positive response for targeting of maltose. This chemically linked MBP-bR hybrid protein, with bacteriorhodopsin, as a photoresponsive transducing substrate, shows promise for creation of a universal sensing array by attachment of other pertinent sensing materials, in lieu of the maltose binding protein utilized. This strategy would allow significant reduction in sensor size, while increasing responsiveness and sensitivity at nano and picomolar levels.

IN-SITU TEM PLASMA CHIP NANOFABRICATION AND CHARACTERIZATION

A silicon-based microcell was fabricated with the potential for use in in-situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) of materials under plasma processing. The microcell consisted of 50 nm-thick film of silicon nitride observation window with 60μm distance between two electrodes. E-beam scattering Mont Carlo simulation showed that the silicon nitride thin film would have very low scattering effect on TEM primary electron beam accelerated at 200 keV. Only 4.7% of primary electrons were scattered by silicon nitride thin film and the Ar gas (60 μm thick at 1 atm pressure) filling the space between silicon nitride films. Theoretical calculation also showed low absorption of high-energy e-beam electrons. Because the plasma cell needs to survive the high vacuum TEM chamber while holding 1 atm internal pressure, a finite element analysis was performed to find the maximum stress the low-stress silicon nitride thin film experienced under pressure. Considering the maximum burst stress of low-stress silicon nitride thin film, the simulation results showed that the 50 nm silicon nitride thin film can be used in TEM under 1 atm pressure as the observation window. Ex-situ plasma generation experiment demonstrated that air plasma can be ignited at DC voltage of 570. A Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis showed that etching and deposition occurred during the plasma process and larger dendrites formed on the positive electrode.

An Investigation of Waste Glass-Based Geopolymers Supplemented with Alumina

An increased consideration of sustainability throughout society has resulted in a surge of research investigating sustainable alternatives to existing construction materials. A new binder system, called a geopolymer, is being investigated to supplement ordinary portland cement (OPC) concrete, which has come under scrutiny because of the CO2 emissions inherent in its production. Geopolymers are produced from the alkali activation of a powdered aluminosilicate source by an alkaline solution, which results in a dense three-dimensional matrix of tetrahedrally linked aluminosilicates. Geopolymers have shown great potential as a building construction material, offering similar mechanical and durability properties to OPC. Additionally, geopolymers have the added value of a considerably smaller carbon footprint than OPC. This research considered the compressive strength, microstructure and composition of geopolymers made from two types of waste glass with varying aluminum contents. Waste glass shows great potential for mainstream use in geopolymers due to its chemical and physical homogeneity as well as its high content of amorphous silica, which could eliminate the need for sodium silicate. However, the lack of aluminum is thought to negatively affect the mechanical performance and alkali stability of the geopolymer system. Mortars were designed using various combinations of glass and metakaolin or fly ash to supplement the aluminum in the system. Mortar made from the high-Al glass (12% Al2O3) reached over 10,000 psi at six months. Mortar made from the low-Al glass (<1% Al2O3) did not perform as well and remained sticky even after several weeks of curing, most likely due to the lack of Al which is believed to cause hardening in geopolymers. A moderate metakaolin replacement (25-38% by mass) was found to positively affect the compressive strength of mortars made with either type of glass. Though the microstructure of the mortar was quite indicative of mechanical performance, composition was also found to be important. The initial stoichiometry of the bulk mixture was maintained fairly closely, especially in mixtures made with fine glass. This research has shown that glass has great potential for use in geopolymers, when care is given to consider the compositional and physical properties of the glass in mixture design.