TANK SIZING AND OPTIMIZING LOOP PLACEMENT IN A BRANCHED WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

More than eighteen percent of the world’s population lives without reliable access to clean water, forced to walk long distances to get small amounts of contaminated surface water. Carrying heavy loads of water long distances and ingesting contaminated water can lead to long-term health problems and even death. These problems affect the most vulnerable populations, women, children, and the elderly, more than anyone else. Water access is one of the most pressing issues in development today. Boajibu, a small village in Sierra Leone, where the author served in Peace Corps for two years, lacks access to clean water. Construction of a water distribution system was halted when a civil war broke out in 1992 and has not been continued since. The community currently relies on hand-dug and borehole wells that can become dirty during the dry season, which forces people to drink contaminated water or to travel a far distance to collect clean water. This report is intended to provide a design the system as it was meant to be built. The water system design was completed based on the taps present, interviews with local community leaders, local surveying, and points taken with a GPS. The design is a gravity-fed branched water system, supplied by a natural spring on a hill adjacent to Boajibu. The system’s source is a natural spring on a hill above Boajibu, but the flow rate of the spring is unknown. There has to be enough flow from the spring over a 24-hour period to meet the demands of the users on a daily basis, or what is called providing continuous flow. If the spring has less than this amount of flow, the system must provide intermittent flow, flow that is restricted to a few hours a day. A minimum flow rate of 2.1 liters per second was found to be necessary to provide continuous flow to the users of Boajibu. If this flow is not met, intermittent flow can be provided to the users. In order to aid the construction of a distribution system in the absence of someone with formal engineering training, a table was created detailing water storage tank sizing based on possible source flow rates. A builder can interpolate using the source flow rate found to get the tank size from the table. However, any flow rate below 2.1 liters per second cannot be used in the table. In this case, the builder should size the tank such that it can take in the water that will be supplied overnight, as all the water will be drained during the day because the users will demand more than the spring can supply through the night. In the developing world, there is often a problem collecting enough money to fund large infrastructure projects, such as a water distribution system. Often there is only enough money to add only one or two loops to a water distribution system. It is helpful to know where these one or two loops can be most effectively placed in the system. Various possible loops were designated for the Boajibu water distribution system and the Adaptive Greedy Heuristic Loop Addition Selection Algorithm (AGHLASA) was used to rank the effectiveness of the possible loops to construct. Loop 1 which was furthest upstream was selected because it benefitted the most people for the least cost. While loops which were further downstream were found to be less effective because they would benefit fewer people. Further studies should be conducted on the water use habits of the people of Boajibu to more accurately predict the demands that will be placed on the system. Further population surveying should also be conducted to predict population change over time so that the appropriate capacity can be built into the system to accommodate future growth. The flow at the spring should be measured using a V-notch weir and the system adjusted accordingly. Future studies can be completed adjusting the loop ranking method so that two users who may be using the water system for different lengths of time are not counted the same and vulnerable users are weighted more heavily than more robust users.

Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.

Spatial and temporal analysis of land cover and landscape structure change in Zagros Forests

The Zagros oak forests in Western Iran are critically important to the sustainability of the region. These forests have undergone dramatic declines in recent decades. We evaluated the utility of the non-parametric Random Forest classification algorithm for land cover classification of Zagros landscapes, and selected the best spatial and spectral predictive variables. The algorithm resulted in high overall classification accuracies (>85%) and also equivalent classification accuracies for the datasets from the three different sensors. We evaluated the associations between trends in forest area and structure with trends in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, to identify the most likely driving forces creating deforestation and landscape structure change. We used available socioeconomic (urban and rural population, and rural income), and climatic (mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature) data for two provinces in northern Zagros. The most correlated driving force of forest area loss was urban population, and climatic variables to a lesser extent. Landscape structure changes were more closely associated with rural population. We examined the effects of scale changes on the results from spatial pattern analysis. We assessed the impacts of eight years of protection in a protected area in northern Zagros at two different scales (both grain and extent). The effects of protection on the amount and structure of forests was scale dependent. We evaluated the nature and magnitude of changes in forest area and structure over the entire Zagros region from 1972 to 2009. We divided the Zagros region in 167 Landscape Units and developed two measures— Deforestation Sensitivity (DS) and Connectivity Sensitivity (CS) — for each landscape unit as the percent of the time steps that forest area and ECA experienced a decrease of greater than 10% in either measure. A considerable loss in forest area and connectivity was detected, but no sudden (nonlinear) changes were detected at the spatial and temporal scale of the study. Connectivity loss occurred more rapidly than forest loss due to the loss of connecting patches. More connectivity was lost in southern Zagros due to climatic differences and different forms of traditional land use.

CHANGE FOR GOOD? AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN PERCEIVED BENEFITS BY ENGOS AND USER SATISFACTION OF SOLAR BOTTLE LIGHTS IN INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS OF DHAKA CITY, BANGLADESH

A major challenge for a developing country such as Bangladesh is to supply basic services to its most marginalized populations, which includes both rural and urban dwellers. The government struggles to provide basic necessities such as water and electricity. In marginalized urban communities in Bangladesh, in particular informal settlements, meeting basic needs is even direr. Most informal settlements are built to respond to a rapid immigration to urban centers, and are thought of as ‘temporary structures’, though many structures have been there for decades. In addition, as the settlements are often squatting on private land, access to formalized services such as electricity or water is largely absent. In some cases, electricity and water connections are brought in - but through informal and non-government sanctioned ways -- these hookups are deemed ‘illegal’ by the state. My research will focus on recent efforts to help ameliorate issues associated with lack of basic services in informal settlements in Bangladesh – in this case lack of light. When the government fails to meet the needs of the general population, different non-government organizations tend to step in to intervene. A new emphasis on solar bottle systems in informal urban settlement areas to help address some energy needs (specifically day-time lighting). One such example is the solar bottle light in Bangladesh, a project introduced by the organization ‘Change’. There has been mixed reactions on this technology among the users. This is where my research intervenes. I have used quantitative method to investigate user satisfactions for the solar bottle lights among the residents of the informal settlements to address the overarching question, is there a disconnect between the perceived benefits of the ENGO and the user satisfaction of the residents of the informal settlements of Dhaka City? This paper uses survey responses to investigate level of user satisfaction and the contributing factors.

GENETIC VARIATION, LOCAL ADAPTATION AND POPULATION STRUCTURE IN NORTH AMERICAN RED OAK SPECIES, QUERCUS RUBRA L. AND Q. ELLIPSOIDALIS E. J. HILL

Forest trees, like oaks, rely on high levels of genetic variation to adapt to varying environmental conditions. Thus, genetic variation and its distribution are important for the long-term survival and adaptability of oak populations. Climate change is projected to lead to increased drought and fire events as well as a northward migration of tree species, including oaks. Additionally, decline in oak regeneration has become increasingly concerning since it may lead to decreased gene flow and increased inbreeding levels. This will in turn lead to lowered levels of genetic diversity, negatively affecting the growth and survival of populations. At the same time, populations at the species’ distribution edge, like those in this study, could possess important stores of genetic diversity and adaptive potential, while also being vulnerable to climatic or anthropogenic changes. A survey of the level and distribution of genetic variation and identification of potentially adaptive genes is needed since adaptive genetic variation is essential for their long-term survival. Oaks possess a remarkable characteristic in that they maintain their species identity and specific environmental adaptations despite their propensity to hybridize. Thus, in the face of interspecific gene flow, some areas of the genome remain differentiated due to selection. This characteristic allows the study of local environmental adaptation through genetic variation analyses. Furthermore, using genic markers with known putative functions makes it possible to link those differentiated markers to potential adaptive traits (e.g., flowering time, drought stress tolerance). Demographic processes like gene flow and genetic drift also play an important role in how genes (including adaptive genes) are maintained or spread. These processes are influenced by disturbances, both natural and anthropogenic. An examination of how genetic variation is geographically distributed can display how these genetic processes and geographical disturbances influence genetic variation patterns. For example, the spatial clustering of closely related trees could promote inbreeding with associated negative effects (inbreeding depression), if gene flow is limited. In turn this can have negative consequences for a species’ ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions. In contrast, interspecific hybridization may also allow the transfer of genes between species that increase their adaptive potential in a changing environment. I have studied the ecologically divergent, interfertile red oaks, Quercus rubra and Q. ellipsoidalis, to identify genes with potential roles in adaptation to abiotic stress through traits such as drought tolerance and flowering time, and to assess the level and distribution of genetic variation. I found evidence for moderate gene flow between the two species and low interspecific genetic differences at most genetic markers (Lind and Gailing 2013). However, the screening of genic markers with potential roles in phenology and drought tolerance led to the identification of a CONSTANS-like (COL) gene, a candidate gene for flowering time and growth. This marker, located in the coding region of the gene, was highly differentiated between the two species in multiple geographical areas, despite interspecific gene flow, and may play a role in reproductive isolation and adaptive divergence between the two species (Lind-Riehl et al. 2014). Since climate change could result in a northward migration of trees species like oaks, this gene could be important in maintaining species identity despite increased contact zones between species (e.g., increased gene flow). Finally I examined differences in spatial genetic structure (SGS) and genetic variation between species and populations subjected to different management strategies and natural disturbances. Diverse management activities combined with various natural disturbances as well as species specific life history traits influenced SGS patterns and inbreeding levels (Lind-Riehl and Gailing submitted).

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.