Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Quantum transport in a single molecular junction

The craze for faster and smaller electronic devices has never gone down and this has always kept researchers on their toes. Following Moore’s law, which states that the number of transistors in a single chip will double in every 18 months, today “30 million transistors can fit into the head of a 1.5 mm diameter pin”. But this miniaturization cannot continue indefinitely due to the ‘quantum leakage’ limit in the thickness of the insulating layer between the gate electrode and the current carrying channel. To bypass this limitation, scientists came up with the idea of using vastly available organic molecules as components in an electronic device. One of the primary challenges in this field was the ability to perform conductance measurements across single molecular junctions. Once that was achieved the focus shifted to a deeper understanding of the underlying physics behind the electron transport across these molecular scale devices. Our initial theoretical approach is based on the conventional Non-Equilibrium Green Function(NEGF) formulation, but the self-energy of the leads is modified to include a weighting factor that ensures negligible current in the absence of a molecular pathway as observed in a Mechanically Controlled Break Junction (MCBJ) experiment. The formulation is then made parameter free by a more careful estimation of the self-energy of the leads. The calculated conductance turns out to be atleast an order more than the experimental values which is probably due to a strong chemical bond at the metal-molecule junction unlike in the experiments. The focus is then shifted to a comparative study of charge transport in molecular wires of different lengths within the same formalism. The molecular wires, composed of a series of organic molecules, are sanwiched between two gold electrodes to make a two terminal device. The length of the wire is increased by sequentially increasing the number of molecules in the wire from 1 to 3. In the low bias regime all the molecular devices are found to exhibit Ohmic behavior. However, the magnitude of conductance decreases exponentially with increase in length of the wire. In the next study, the relative contribution of the ‘in-phase’ and the ‘out-of-phase’ components of the total electronic current under the influence of an external bias is estimated for the wires of three different lengths. In the low bias regime, the ‘out-of-phase’ contribution to the total current is minimal and the ‘in-phase’ elastic tunneling of the electrons is responsible for the net electronic current. This is true irrespective of the length of the molecular spacer. In this regime, the current-voltage characteristics follow Ohm’s law and the conductance of the wires is found to decrease exponentially with increase in length which is in agreement with experimental results. However, after a certain ‘off-set’ voltage, the current increases non-linearly with bias and the ‘out-of-phase’ tunneling of electrons reduces the net current substantially. Subsequently, the interaction of conduction electrons with the vibrational modes as a function of external bias in the three different oligomers is studied since they are one of the main sources of phase-breaking scattering. The number of vibrational modes that couple strongly with the frontier molecular orbitals are found to increase with length of the spacer and the external field. This is consistent with the existence of lowest ‘off-set’ voltage for the longest wire under study.

EVALUATING THE INSTALLATION AND PERFORMANCE OF MANUALLY DRILLED WELLS IN NORTH-EASTERN MADAGASCAR

Manual drilling is a popular solution for programs seeking to increase drinking water supply in rural Madagascar. Lightweight, affordable and locally produced drilling equipment allows rapid implementation where access is problematic and funds are limited. This report will look at the practical implications of using manual drilling as a one-step solution to potable water in rural development. The main benefits of using these techniques are time and cost savings. The author uses his experience managing a drilling campaign in northeastern Madagascar to explore the benefits and limitations of one particular drilling methodology – BushProof’s Madrill technique. Just under 200 wells were drilled using this method in the course of one fiscal year (September 2011-September 2012). The paper explores what compromises must be considered in the quest for cost-effective boreholes and whether everybody - from the implementers to project managers to clients and lawmakers - are in agreement about the consequences of such compromises. The paper also discusses water quality issues encountered when drilling in shallow aquifers.

Optimal game theoretic distributed control methodologies in small scale power systems

This dissertation presents the competitive control methodologies for small-scale power system (SSPS). A SSPS is a collection of sources and loads that shares a common network which can be isolated during terrestrial disturbances. Micro-grids, naval ship electric power systems (NSEPS), aircraft power systems and telecommunication system power systems are typical examples of SSPS. The analysis and development of control systems for small-scale power systems (SSPS) lacks a defined slack bus. In addition, a change of a load or source will influence the real time system parameters of the system. Therefore, the control system should provide the required flexibility, to ensure operation as a single aggregated system. In most of the cases of a SSPS the sources and loads must be equipped with power electronic interfaces which can be modeled as a dynamic controllable quantity. The mathematical formulation of the micro-grid is carried out with the help of game theory, optimal control and fundamental theory of electrical power systems. Then the micro-grid can be viewed as a dynamical multi-objective optimization problem with nonlinear objectives and variables. Basically detailed analysis was done with optimal solutions with regards to start up transient modeling, bus selection modeling and level of communication within the micro-grids. In each approach a detail mathematical model is formed to observe the system response. The differential game theoretic approach was also used for modeling and optimization of startup transients. The startup transient controller was implemented with open loop, PI and feedback control methodologies. Then the hardware implementation was carried out to validate the theoretical results. The proposed game theoretic controller shows higher performances over traditional the PI controller during startup. In addition, the optimal transient surface is necessary while implementing the feedback controller for startup transient. Further, the experimental results are in agreement with the theoretical simulation. The bus selection and team communication was modeled with discrete and continuous game theory models. Although players have multiple choices, this controller is capable of choosing the optimum bus. Next the team communication structures are able to optimize the players’ Nash equilibrium point. All mathematical models are based on the local information of the load or source. As a result, these models are the keys to developing accurate distributed controllers.

IMPROVING STARTABILITY AND REDUCING EMISSIONS IN FLEXFUEL SPARK IGNITION DIRECT INJECTION VARIABLE CAM TIMING ENGINE

Experimental work and analysis was done to investigate engine startup robustness and emissions of a flex-fuel spark ignition (SI) direct injection (DI) engine. The vaporization and other characteristics of ethanol fuel blends present a challenge at engine startup. Strategies to reduce the enrichment requirements for the first engine startup cycle and emissions for the second and third fired cycle at 25°C ± 1°C engine and intake air temperature were investigated. Research work was conducted on a single cylinder SIDI engine with gasoline and E85 fuels, to study the effect on first fired cycle of engine startup. Piston configurations that included a compression ratio change (11 vs 15.5) and piston geometry change (flattop vs bowl) were tested, along with changes in intake cam timing (95,110,125) and fuel pressure (0.4 MPa vs 3 MPa). The goal was to replicate the engine speed, manifold pressure, fuel pressure and testing temperature from an engine startup trace for investigating the first fired cycle for the engine. Results showed bowl piston was able to enable lower equivalence ratio engine starts with gasoline fuel, while also showing lower IMEP at the same equivalence ratio compared to flat top piston. With E85, bowl piston showed reduced IMEP as compression ratio increased at the same equivalence ratio. A preference for constant intake valve timing across fuels seemed to indicate that flattop piston might be a good flex-fuel piston. Significant improvements were seen with higher CR bowl piston with high fuel pressure starts, but showed no improvement with low fuel pressures. Simulation work was conducted to analyze initial three cycles of engine startup in GT-POWER for the same set of hardware used in the experimentations. A steady state validated model was modified for startup conditions. The results of which allowed an understanding of the relative residual levels and IMEP at the test points in the cam phasing space. This allowed selecting additional test points that enable use of higher residual levels, eliminating those with smaller trapped mass incapable of producing required IMEP for proper engine turnover. The second phase of experimental testing results for 2nd and 3rd startup cycle revealed both E10 and E85 prefer the same SOI of 240°bTDC at second and third startup cycle for the flat top piston and high injection pressures. E85 fuel optimal cam timing for startup showed that it tolerates more residuals compared to E10 fuel. Higher internal residuals drives down the Ø requirement for both fuels up to their combustion stability limit, this is thought to be direct benefit to vaporization due to increased cycle start temperature. Benefits are shown for an advance IMOP and retarded EMOP strategy at engine startup. Overall the amount of residuals preferred by an engine for E10 fuel at startup is thought to be constant across engine speed, thus could enable easier selection of optimized cam positions across the startup speeds.