5 resultados para parametric estimate
em Digital Commons - Michigan Tech
Resumo:
Due to their high thermal efficiency, diesel engines have excellent fuel economy and have been widely used as a power source for many vehicles. Diesel engines emit less greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide) compared with gasoline engines. However, diesel engines emit large amounts of particulate matter (PM) which can imperil human health. The best way to reduce the particulate matter is by using the Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF) system which consists of a wall-flow monolith which can trap particulates, and the DPF can be periodically regenerated to remove the collected particulates. The estimation of the PM mass accumulated in the DPF and total pressure drop across the filter are very important in order to determine when to carry out the active regeneration for the DPF. In this project, by developing a filtration model and a pressure drop model, we can estimate the PM mass and the total pressure drop, then, these two models can be linked with a regeneration model which has been developed previously to predict when to regenerate the filter. There results of this project were: 1 Reproduce a filtration model and simulate the processes of filtration. By studying the deep bed filtration and cake filtration, stages and quantity of mass accumulated in the DPF can be estimated. It was found that the filtration efficiency increases faster during the deep-bed filtration than that during the cake filtration. A “unit collector” theory was used in our filtration model which can explain the mechanism of the filtration very well. 2 Perform a parametric study on the pressure drop model for changes in engine exhaust flow rate, deposit layer thickness, and inlet temperature. It was found that there are five primary variables impacting the pressure drop in the DPF which are temperature gradient along the channel, deposit layer thickness, deposit layer permeability, wall thickness, and wall permeability. 3 Link the filtration model and the pressure drop model with the regeneration model to determine the time to carry out the regeneration of the DPF. It was found that the regeneration should be initiated when the cake layer is at a certain thickness, since a cake layer with either too big or too small an amount of particulates will need more thermal energy to reach a higher regeneration efficiency. 4 Formulate diesel particulate trap regeneration strategies for real world driving conditions to find out the best desirable conditions for DPF regeneration. It was found that the regeneration should be initiated when the vehicle’s speed is high and during which there should not be any stops from the vehicle. Moreover, the regeneration duration is about 120 seconds and the inlet temperature for the regeneration is 710K.
Resumo:
Northern hardwood management was assessed throughout the state of Michigan using data collected on recently harvested stands in 2010 and 2011. Methods of forensic estimation of diameter at breast height were compared and an ideal, localized equation form was selected for use in reconstructing pre-harvest stand structures. Comparisons showed differences in predictive ability among available equation forms which led to substantial financial differences when used to estimate the value of removed timber. Management on all stands was then compared among state, private, and corporate landowners. Comparisons of harvest intensities against a liberal interpretation of a well-established management guideline showed that approximately one third of harvests were conducted in a manner which may imply that the guideline was followed. One third showed higher levels of removals than recommended, and one third of harvests were less intensive than recommended. Multiple management guidelines and postulated objectives were then synthesized into a novel system of harvest taxonomy, against which all harvests were compared. This further comparison showed approximately the same proportions of harvests, while distinguishing sanitation cuts and the future productive potential of harvests cut more intensely than suggested by guidelines. Stand structures are commonly represented using diameter distributions. Parametric and nonparametric techniques for describing diameter distributions were employed on pre-harvest and post-harvest data. A common polynomial regression procedure was found to be highly sensitive to the method of histogram construction which provides the data points for the regression. The discriminative ability of kernel density estimation was substantially different from that of the polynomial regression technique.
Resumo:
This research was conducted in August of 2011 in the villages of Kigisu and Rubona in rural Uganda while the author was serving as a community health volunteer with the U.S. Peace Corps. The study used the contingent valuation method (CVM) to estimate the populations’ willingness to pay (WTP) for the operation and maintenance of an improved water source. The survey was administered to 122 households out of 400 in the community, gathering demographic information, health and water behaviors, and using an iterative bidding process to estimate WTP. Households indicated a mean WTP of 286 Ugandan Shillings (UGX) per 20 liters for a public tap and 202 UGX per 20 liters from a private tap. The data were also analyzed using an ordered probit model. It was determined that the number of children in the home, and the distance from the existing source were the primary variables influencing households’ WTP.
Resumo:
Ethanol-gasoline fuel blends are increasingly being used in spark ignition (SI) engines due to continued growth in renewable fuels as part of a growing renewable portfolio standard (RPS). This leads to the need for a simple and accurate ethanol-gasoline blends combustion model that is applicable to one-dimensional engine simulation. A parametric combustion model has been developed, integrated into an engine simulation tool, and validated using SI engine experimental data. The parametric combustion model was built inside a user compound in GT-Power. In this model, selected burn durations were computed using correlations as functions of physically based non-dimensional groups that have been developed using the experimental engine database over a wide range of ethanol-gasoline blends, engine geometries, and operating conditions. A coefficient of variance (COV) of gross indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP) correlation was also added to the parametric combustion model. This correlation enables the cycle combustion variation modeling as a function of engine geometry and operating conditions. The computed burn durations were then used to fit single and double Wiebe functions. The single-Wiebe parametric combustion compound used the least squares method to compute the single-Wiebe parameters, while the double-Wiebe parametric combustion compound used an analytical solution to compute the double-Wiebe parameters. These compounds were then integrated into the engine model in GT-Power through the multi-Wiebe combustion template in which the values of Wiebe parameters (single-Wiebe or double-Wiebe) were sensed via RLT-dependence. The parametric combustion models were validated by overlaying the simulated pressure trace from GT-Power on to experimentally measured pressure traces. A thermodynamic engine model was also developed to study the effect of fuel blends, engine geometries and operating conditions on both the burn durations and COV of gross IMEP simulation results.
Resumo:
Civil infrastructure provides essential services for the development of both society and economy. It is very important to manage systems efficiently to ensure sound performance. However, there are challenges in information extraction from available data, which also necessitates the establishment of methodologies and frameworks to assist stakeholders in the decision making process. This research proposes methodologies to evaluate systems performance by maximizing the use of available information, in an effort to build and maintain sustainable systems. Under the guidance of problem formulation from a holistic view proposed by Mukherjee and Muga, this research specifically investigates problem solving methods that measure and analyze metrics to support decision making. Failures are inevitable in system management. A methodology is developed to describe arrival pattern of failures in order to assist engineers in failure rescues and budget prioritization especially when funding is limited. It reveals that blockage arrivals are not totally random. Smaller meaningful subsets show good random behavior. Additional overtime failure rate is analyzed by applying existing reliability models and non-parametric approaches. A scheme is further proposed to depict rates over the lifetime of a given facility system. Further analysis of sub-data sets is also performed with the discussion of context reduction. Infrastructure condition is another important indicator of systems performance. The challenges in predicting facility condition are the transition probability estimates and model sensitivity analysis. Methods are proposed to estimate transition probabilities by investigating long term behavior of the model and the relationship between transition rates and probabilities. To integrate heterogeneities, model sensitivity is performed for the application of non-homogeneous Markov chains model. Scenarios are investigated by assuming transition probabilities follow a Weibull regressed function and fall within an interval estimate. For each scenario, multiple cases are simulated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that variations on the outputs are sensitive to the probability regression. While for the interval estimate, outputs have similar variations to the inputs. Life cycle cost analysis and life cycle assessment of a sewer system are performed comparing three different pipe types, which are reinforced concrete pipe (RCP) and non-reinforced concrete pipe (NRCP), and vitrified clay pipe (VCP). Life cycle cost analysis is performed for material extraction, construction and rehabilitation phases. In the rehabilitation phase, Markov chains model is applied in the support of rehabilitation strategy. In the life cycle assessment, the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) tools are used in estimating environmental emissions for all three phases. Emissions are then compared quantitatively among alternatives to support decision making.