Using a Prediction and Option Generation Paradigm to Understand Decision Making

In many complex and dynamic domains, the ability to generate and then select the appropriate course of action is based on the decision maker's "reading" of the situation--in other words, their ability to assess the situation and predict how it will evolve over the next few seconds. Current theories regarding option generation during the situation assessment and response phases of decision making offer contrasting views on the cognitive mechanisms that support superior performance. The Recognition-Primed Decision-making model (RPD; Klein, 1989) and Take-The-First heuristic (TTF; Johnson & Raab, 2003) suggest that superior decisions are made by generating few options, and then selecting the first option as the final one. Long-Term Working Memory theory (LTWM; Ericsson & Kintsch, 1995), on the other hand, posits that skilled decision makers construct rich, detailed situation models, and that as a result, skilled performers should have the ability to generate more of the available task-relevant options. The main goal of this dissertation was to use these theories about option generation as a way to further the understanding of how police officers anticipate a perpetrator's actions, and make decisions about how to respond, during dynamic law enforcement situations. An additional goal was to gather information that can be used, in the future, to design training based on the anticipation skills, decision strategies, and processes of experienced officers. Two studies were conducted to achieve these goals. Study 1 identified video-based law enforcement scenarios that could be used to discriminate between experienced and less-experienced police officers, in terms of their ability to anticipate the outcome. The discriminating scenarios were used as the stimuli in Study 2; 23 experienced and 26 less-experienced police officers observed temporally-occluded versions of the scenarios, and then completed assessment and response option-generation tasks. The results provided mixed support for the nature of option generation in these situations. Consistent with RPD and TTF, participants typically selected the first-generated option as their final one, and did so during both the assessment and response phases of decision making. Consistent with LTWM theory, participants--regardless of experience level--generated more task-relevant assessment options than task-irrelevant options. However, an expected interaction between experience level and option-relevance was not observed. Collectively, the two studies provide a deeper understanding of how police officers make decisions in dynamic situations. The methods developed and employed in the studies can be used to investigate anticipation and decision making in other critical domains (e.g., nursing, military). The results are discussed in relation to how they can inform future studies of option-generation performance, and how they could be applied to develop training for law enforcement officers.

EXPLORING CHANGES IN DETRITAL FLOCCULENT LAYER DYNAMICS DUE TO SHIFTS IN MACROPHYTE COMMUNITIES IN THE NORTHERN EVERGLADES

A shift in plant communities of the Water Conservation Areas (WCAs) within the Everglades has been linked to changes in hydrology and high levels of nutrient loading from surrounding agicultural areas. This has resulted in the encroachment of dense cattail stands (Typha domingensis) into areas that had previously been a ridge and slough landscape populated primarily by native sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense). In order to study ecological management solutions in this area, WCA-2A was broken into study plots; several of which became open water areas through the application of herbicide and burning regimens. The open water areas allowed for Chara spp (a submersed algal species) to replace Typha domingensis as the dominant macrophyte. This study investigated the polymer and ionic profiles of Chara spp, Typha domingensis and Cladium jamaicense and their contributions to detrital flocculent (floc) in the study plots where they are the dominant macrophytes. Floc is not only an important food source for aquatic species; it also supports many algal, fungal and bacterial communities. Data gathered in this study indicated that the floc sample from a phosphorus enriched open water study plot (EO1) where Chara spp was the dominant macrophyte may contain cell wall polymers from sources other than Chara spp (most likely Typha domingensis), while the chemical and polymeric profile of the floc of the study plot where Typha domingensis is the dominant macrophyte (EC1) suggests that the floc layer has contributions from algal sources as well as Typha domingensis. Additionally, monoclonal antibodies to Arabinoglalactan protein (AGP) and (1,4)-β-D galactan were identified as possible biomarkers for distinguishing algal dominated floc layers from layers dominated by emergent vegetation. Calcium labeling could be a useful tool for this as well because of the high amount of Ca2+ associated with Chara spp cell walls. When looking into the soluble phosphorus content of the macrophytes and paired floc samples of WCA-2A, it was found that Chara spp may be contributing a greater amount of Ca-bound phosphorus to floc layers where it is the dominant macrophyte when compared to floc layers from study plots dominated by emergent macrophytes. Floc layers also appear to be acting as a nutrient sink for soluble phosphorus. The findings of this study support the overall hypothesis that the shift from native emergent macrophyte communities to submersed macrophyte communities in study sites of the northern Everglades is affecting the polymeric/chemical profile and ionic content of detrital floc layers. The effects of this shift may contribute to changes in complex flocculent community dynamics.