BIAS-CORRECTED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF THE PARAMETERS OF THE WEIGHTED LINDLEY DISTRIBUTION

This report discusses the calculation of analytic second-order bias techniques for the maximum likelihood estimates (for short, MLEs) of the unknown parameters of the distribution in quality and reliability analysis. It is well-known that the MLEs are widely used to estimate the unknown parameters of the probability distributions due to their various desirable properties; for example, the MLEs are asymptotically unbiased, consistent, and asymptotically normal. However, many of these properties depend on an extremely large sample sizes. Those properties, such as unbiasedness, may not be valid for small or even moderate sample sizes, which are more practical in real data applications. Therefore, some bias-corrected techniques for the MLEs are desired in practice, especially when the sample size is small. Two commonly used popular techniques to reduce the bias of the MLEs, are ‘preventive’ and ‘corrective’ approaches. They both can reduce the bias of the MLEs to order O(n−2), whereas the ‘preventive’ approach does not have an explicit closed form expression. Consequently, we mainly focus on the ‘corrective’ approach in this report. To illustrate the importance of the bias-correction in practice, we apply the bias-corrected method to two popular lifetime distributions: the inverse Lindley distribution and the weighted Lindley distribution. Numerical studies based on the two distributions show that the considered bias-corrected technique is highly recommended over other commonly used estimators without bias-correction. Therefore, special attention should be paid when we estimate the unknown parameters of the probability distributions under the scenario in which the sample size is small or moderate.

Optimization of ethanol production by yeasts from lignocellulosic feedstocks

Ethanol from lignocellulosic feedstocks is not currently competitive with corn-based ethanol in terms of yields and commercial feasibility. Through optimization of the pretreatment and fermentation steps this could change. The overall goal of this study was to evaluate, characterize, and optimize ethanol production from lignocellulosic feedstocks by the yeasts Saccharomyces cerevisiae (strain Ethanol Red, ER) and Pichia stipitis CBS 6054. Through a series of fermentations and growth studies, P. stipitis CBS 6054 and S. cerevisiae (ER) were evaluated on their ability to produce ethanol from both single substrate (xylose and glucose) and mixed substrate (five sugars present in hemicellulose) fermentations. The yeasts were also evaluated on their ability to produce ethanol from dilute acid pretreated hydrolysate and enzymatic hydrolysate. Hardwood (aspen), softwood (balsam), and herbaceous (switchgrass) hydrolysates were also tested to determine the effect of the source of the feedstock. P. stipitis produced ethanol from 66-98% of the theoretical yield throughout the fermentation studies completed over the course of this work. S. cerevisiae (ER) was determined to not be ideal for dilute acid pretreated lignocellulose because it was not able to utilize all the sugars found in hemicellulose. S. cerevisiae (ER) was instead used to optimize enzymatic pretreated lignocellulose that contained only glucose monomers. It was able to produce ethanol from enzymatically pretreated hydrolysate but the sugar level was so low (>3 g/L) that it would not be commercially feasible. Two lignocellulosic degradation products, furfural and acetic acid, were evaluated for whether or not they had an inhibitory effect on biomass production, substrate utilization, and ethanol production by P. stipitis and S. cerevisiae (ER). It was determined that inhibition is directly related to the concentration of the inhibitor and the organism. The final phase for this thesis focused on adapting P. stipitis CBS 6054 to toxic compounds present in dilute acid pretreated hydrolysate through directed evolution. Cultures were transferred to increasing concentrations of dilute acid pretreated hydrolysate in the fermentation media. The adapted strains’ fermentation capabilities were tested against the unadapted parent strain at each hydrolysate concentration. The fermentation capabilities of the adapted strain were significantly improved over the unadapted parentstrain. On media containing 60% hydrolysate the adapted strain yielded 0.30 g_ethanol/g_sugar ± 0.033 (g/g) and the unadapted parent strain yielded 0.11 g/g ±0.028. The culture has been successfully adapted to growth on media containing 65%, 70%, 75%, and 80% hydrolysate but with below optimal ethanol yields (0.14-0.19 g/g). Cell recycle could be a viable option for improving ethanol yields in these cases. A study was conducted to determine the optimal media for production of ethanol from xylose and mixed substrate fermentations by P. stipitis. Growth, substrate utilization, and ethanol production were the three factors used to evaluate the media. The three media tested were Yeast Peptone (YP), Yeast Nitrogen Base (YNB), and Corn Steep Liquor (CSL). The ethanol yields (g/g) for each medium are as follows: YP - 0.40-0.42, YNB -0.28-.030, and CSL - 0.44-.051. The results show that media containing CSL result in slightly higher ethanol yields then other fermentation media. P. stipitis was successfully adapted to dilute acid pretreated aspen hydrolysate in increasing concentrations in order to produce higher ethanol yields compared to the unadapted parent strain. S. cerevisiae (ER) produced ethanol from enzymatic pretreated cellulose containing low concentrations of glucose (1-3g/L). These results show that fermentations of lignocellulosic feedstocks can be optimized based on the substrate and organism for increased ethanol yields.

Model to describe the mode I fracture of steel fiber reinforced ultra-high performance concrete

Ultra-high performance fiber reinforced concrete (UHPFRC) has arisen from the implementation of a variety of concrete engineering and materials science concepts developed over the last century. This material offers superior strength, serviceability, and durability over its conventional counterparts. One of the most important differences for UHPFRC over other concrete materials is its ability to resist fracture through the use of randomly dispersed discontinuous fibers and improvements to the fiber-matrix bond. Of particular interest is the materials ability to achieve higher loads after first crack, as well as its high fracture toughness. In this research, a study of the fracture behavior of UHPFRC with steel fibers was conducted to look at the effect of several parameters related to the fracture behavior and to develop a fracture model based on a non-linear curve fit of the data. To determine this, a series of three-point bending tests were performed on various single edge notched prisms (SENPs). Compression tests were also performed for quality assurance. Testing was conducted on specimens of different cross-sections, span/depth (S/D) ratios, curing regimes, ages, and fiber contents. By comparing the results from prisms of different sizes this study examines the weakening mechanism due to the size effect. Furthermore, by employing the concept of fracture energy it was possible to obtain a comparison of the fracture toughness and ductility. The model was determined based on a fit to P-w fracture curves, which was cross referenced for comparability to the results. Once obtained the model was then compared to the models proposed by the AFGC in the 2003 and to the ACI 544 model for conventional fiber reinforced concretes.

Three dimensional finite element simulation of polymer melting and flow in a single-screw extruder : optimization of screw channel geometry

Single-screw extrusion is one of the widely used processing methods in plastics industry, which was the third largest manufacturing industry in the United States in 2007 [5]. In order to optimize the single-screw extrusion process, tremendous efforts have been devoted for development of accurate models in the last fifty years, especially for polymer melting in screw extruders. This has led to a good qualitative understanding of the melting process; however, quantitative predictions of melting from various models often have a large error in comparison to the experimental data. Thus, even nowadays, process parameters and the geometry of the extruder channel for the single-screw extrusion are determined by trial and error. Since new polymers are developed frequently, finding the optimum parameters to extrude these polymers by trial and error is costly and time consuming. In order to reduce the time and experimental work required for optimizing the process parameters and the geometry of the extruder channel for a given polymer, the main goal of this research was to perform a coordinated experimental and numerical investigation of melting in screw extrusion. In this work, a full three-dimensional finite element simulation of the two-phase flow in the melting and metering zones of a single-screw extruder was performed by solving the conservation equations for mass, momentum, and energy. The only attempt for such a three-dimensional simulation of melting in screw extruder was more than twenty years back. However, that work had only a limited success because of the capability of computers and mathematical algorithms available at that time. The dramatic improvement of computational power and mathematical knowledge now make it possible to run full 3-D simulations of two-phase flow in single-screw extruders on a desktop PC. In order to verify the numerical predictions from the full 3-D simulations of two-phase flow in single-screw extruders, a detailed experimental study was performed. This experimental study included Maddock screw-freezing experiments, Screw Simulator experiments and material characterization experiments. Maddock screw-freezing experiments were performed in order to visualize the melting profile along the single-screw extruder channel with different screw geometry configurations. These melting profiles were compared with the simulation results. Screw Simulator experiments were performed to collect the shear stress and melting flux data for various polymers. Cone and plate viscometer experiments were performed to obtain the shear viscosity data which is needed in the simulations. An optimization code was developed to optimize two screw geometry parameters, namely, screw lead (pitch) and depth in the metering section of a single-screw extruder, such that the output rate of the extruder was maximized without exceeding the maximum temperature value specified at the exit of the extruder. This optimization code used a mesh partitioning technique in order to obtain the flow domain. The simulations in this flow domain was performed using the code developed to simulate the two-phase flow in single-screw extruders.

The effect of demand, tank parameters, and pumping stations on energy use in municipal drinking water distribution systems

Two of the indicators of the UN Millennium Development Goals ensuring environmental sustainability are energy use and per capita carbon dioxide emissions. The increasing urbanization and increasing world population may require increased energy use in order to transport enough safe drinking water to communities. In addition, the increase in water use would result in increased energy consumption, thereby resulting in increased green-house gas emissions that promote global climate change. The study of multiple Municipal Drinking Water Distribution Systems (MDWDSs) that relates various MDWDS aspects--system components and properties--to energy use is strongly desirable. The understanding of the relationship between system aspects and energy use aids in energy-efficient design. In this study, components of a MDWDS, and/or the characteristics associated with the component are termed as MDWDS aspects (hereafter--system aspects). There are many aspects of MDWDSs that affect the energy usage. Three system aspects (1) system-wide water demand, (2) storage tank parameters, and (3) pumping stations were analyzed in this study. The study involved seven MDWDSs to understand the relationship between the above-mentioned system aspects in relation with energy use. A MDWDSs model, EPANET 2.0, was utilized to analyze the seven systems. Six of the systems were real and one was a hypothetical system. The study presented here is unique in its statistical approach using seven municipal water distribution systems. The first system aspect studied was system-wide water demand. The analysis involved analyzing seven systems for the variation of water demand and its impact on energy use. To quantify the effects of water use reduction on energy use in a municipal water distribution system, the seven systems were modeled and the energy usage quantified for various amounts of water conservation. It was found that the effect of water conservation on energy use was linear for all seven systems and that all the average values of all the systems' energy use plotted on the same line with a high R 2 value. From this relationship, it can be ascertained that a 20% reduction in water demand results in approximately a 13% savings in energy use for all seven systems analyzed. This figure might hold true for many similar systems that are dominated by pumping and not gravity driven. The second system aspect analyzed was storage tank(s) parameters. Various tank parameters: (1) tank maximum water levels, (2) tank elevation, and (3) tank diameter were considered in this part of the study. MDWDSs use a significant amount of electrical energy for the pumping of water from low elevations (usually a source) to higher ones (usually storage tanks). The use of electrical energy has an effect on pollution emissions and, therefore, potential global climate change as well. Various values of these tank parameters were modeled on seven MDWDSs of various sizes using a network solver and the energy usage recorded. It was found that when averaged over all seven analyzed systems (1) the reduction of maximum tank water level by 50% results in a 2% energy reduction, (2) energy use for a change in tank elevation is system specific, and (2) a reduction of tank diameter of 50% results in approximately a 7% energy savings. The third system aspect analyzed in this study was pumping station parameters. A pumping station consists of one or more pumps. The seven systems were analyzed to understand the effect of the variation of pump horsepower and the number of booster stations on energy use. It was found that adding booster stations could save energy depending upon the system characteristics. For systems with flat topography, a single main pumping station was found to use less energy. In systems with a higher-elevation neighborhood, however, one or more booster pumps with a reduced main pumping station capacity used less energy. The energy savings for the seven systems was dependent on the number of boosters and ranged from 5% to 66% for the analyzed five systems with higher elevation neighborhoods (S3, S4, S5, S6, and S7). No energy savings was realized for the remaining two flat topography systems, S1, and S2. The present study analyzed and established the relationship between various system aspects and energy use in seven MDWDSs. This aids in estimating the amount of energy savings in MDWDSs. This energy savings would ultimately help reduce Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions including per capita CO 2 emissions thereby potentially lowering the global climate change effect. This will in turn contribute to meeting the MDG of ensuring environmental sustainability.