Simulating dioxane transport in a heterogeneous glacial aquifer system (Washtenaw County, Michigan) using publicly available models and data

The primary challenge in groundwater and contaminant transport modeling is obtaining the data needed for constructing, calibrating and testing the models. Large amounts of data are necessary for describing the hydrostratigraphy in areas with complex geology. Increasingly states are making spatial data available that can be used for input to groundwater flow models. The appropriateness of this data for large-scale flow systems has not been tested. This study focuses on modeling a plume of 1,4-dioxane in a heterogeneous aquifer system in Scio Township, Washtenaw County, Michigan. The analysis consisted of: (1) characterization of hydrogeology of the area and construction of a conceptual model based on publicly available spatial data, (2) development and calibration of a regional flow model for the site, (3) conversion of the regional model to a more highly resolved local model, (4) simulation of the dioxane plume, and (5) evaluation of the model's ability to simulate field data and estimation of the possible dioxane sources and subsequent migration until maximum concentrations are at or below the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality's residential cleanup standard for groundwater (85 ppb). MODFLOW-2000 and MT3D programs were utilized to simulate the groundwater flow and the development and movement of the 1, 4-dioxane plume, respectively. MODFLOW simulates transient groundwater flow in a quasi-3-dimensional sense, subject to a variety of boundary conditions that can simulate recharge, pumping, and surface-/groundwater interactions. MT3D simulates solute advection with groundwater flow (using the flow solution from MODFLOW), dispersion, source/sink mixing, and chemical reaction of contaminants. This modeling approach was successful at simulating the groundwater flows by calibrating recharge and hydraulic conductivities. The plume transport was adequately simulated using literature dispersivity and sorption coefficients, although the plume geometries were not well constrained.

Dynamic modeling, simulation and control design of a parafoil-payload system for ship launched aerial delivery system (SLADS)

The objective of this research was to develop a high-fidelity dynamic model of a parafoilpayload system with respect to its application for the Ship Launched Aerial Delivery System (SLADS). SLADS is a concept in which cargo can be transfered from ship to shore using a parafoil-payload system. It is accomplished in two phases: An initial towing phase when the glider follows the towing vessel in a passive lift mode and an autonomous gliding phase when the system is guided to the desired point. While many previous researchers have analyzed the parafoil-payload system when it is released from another airborne vehicle, limited work has been done in the area of towing up the system from ground or sea. One of the main contributions of this research was the development of a nonlinear dynamic model of a towed parafoil-payload system. After performing an extensive literature review of the existing methods of modeling a parafoil-payload system, a five degree-of-freedom model was developed. The inertial and geometric properties of the system were investigated to predict accurate results in the simulation environment. Since extensive research has been done in determining the aerodynamic characteristics of a paraglider, an existing aerodynamic model was chosen to incorporate the effects of air flow around the flexible paraglider wing. During the towing phase, it is essential that the parafoil-payload system follow the line of the towing vessel path to prevent an unstable flight condition called ‘lockout’. A detailed study of the causes of lockout, its mathematical representation and the flight conditions and the parameters related to lockout, constitute another contribution of this work. A linearized model of the parafoil-payload system was developed and used to analyze the stability of the system about equilibrium conditions. The relationship between the control surface inputs and the stability was investigated. In addition to stability of flight, one more important objective of SLADS is to tow up the parafoil-payload system as fast as possible. The tension in the tow cable is directly proportional to the rate of ascent of the parafoil-payload system. Lockout instability is more favorable when tow tensions are large. Thus there is a tradeoff between susceptibility to lockout and rapid deployment. Control strategies were also developed for optimal tow up and to maintain stability in the event of disturbances.

Digital processing and data compilation approach for using remotely sensed imagery to identify geological lineaments in hard-rock terrains : an application for groundwater explorations in Nicaragua

Sustainable yields from water wells in hard-rock aquifers are achieved when the well bore intersects fracture networks. Fracture networks are often not readily discernable at the surface. Lineament analysis using remotely sensed satellite imagery has been employed to identify surface expressions of fracturing, and a variety of image-analysis techniques have been successfully applied in “ideal” settings. An ideal setting for lineament detection is where the influences of human development, vegetation, and climatic situations are minimal and hydrogeological conditions and geologic structure are known. There is not yet a well-accepted protocol for mapping lineaments nor have different approaches been compared in non-ideal settings. A new approach for image-processing/synthesis was developed to identify successful satellite imagery types for lineament analysis in non-ideal terrain. Four satellite sensors (ASTER, Landsat7 ETM+, QuickBird, RADARSAT-1) and a digital elevation model were evaluated for lineament analysis in Boaco, Nicaragua, where the landscape is subject to varied vegetative cover, a plethora of anthropogenic features, and frequent cloud cover that limit the availability of optical satellite data. A variety of digital image processing techniques were employed and lineament interpretations were performed to obtain 12 complementary image products that were evaluated subjectively to identify lineaments. The 12 lineament interpretations were synthesized to create a raster image of lineament zone coincidence that shows the level of agreement among the 12 interpretations. A composite lineament interpretation was made using the coincidence raster to restrict lineament observations to areas where multiple interpretations (at least 4) agree. Nine of the 11 previously mapped faults were identified from the coincidence raster. An additional 26 lineaments were identified from the coincidence raster, and the locations of 10 were confirmed by field observation. Four manual pumping tests suggest that well productivity is higher for wells proximal to lineament features. Interpretations from RADARSAT-1 products were superior to interpretations from other sensor products, suggesting that quality lineament interpretation in this region requires anthropogenic features to be minimized and topographic expressions to be maximized. The approach developed in this study has the potential to improve siting wells in non-ideal regions.

A Surface Displacement Analysis for Volcan Pacaya from October 2001 through March 2013 by Means of 3-D Modeling of Precise Position GPS Data

Volcán Pacaya is one of three currently active volcanoes in Guatemala. Volcanic activity originates from the local tectonic subduction of the Cocos plate beneath the Caribbean plate along the Pacific Guatemalan coast. Pacaya is characterized by generally strombolian type activity with occasional larger vulcanian type eruptions approximately every ten years. One particularly large eruption occurred on May 27, 2010. Using GPS data collected for approximately 8 years before this eruption and data from an additional three years of collection afterwards, surface movement covering the period of the eruption can be measured and used as a tool to help understand activity at the volcano. Initial positions were obtained from raw data using the Automatic Precise Positioning Service provided by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Forward modeling of observed 3-D displacements for three time periods (before, covering and after the May 2010 eruption) revealed that a plausible source for deformation is related to a vertical dike or planar surface trending NNW-SSE through the cone. For three distinct time periods the best fitting models describe deformation of the volcano: 0.45 right lateral movement and 0.55 m tensile opening along the dike mentioned above from October 2001 through January 2009 (pre-eruption); 0.55 m left lateral slip along the dike mentioned above for the period from January 2009 and January 2011 (covering the eruption); -0.025 m dip slip along the dike for the period from January 2011 through March 2013 (post-eruption). In all bestfit models the dike is oriented with a 75° westward dip. These data have respective RMS misfit values of 5.49 cm, 12.38 cm and 6.90 cm for each modeled period. During the time period that includes the eruption the volcano most likely experienced a combination of slip and inflation below the edifice which created a large scar at the surface down the northern flank of the volcano. All models that a dipping dike may be experiencing a combination of inflation and oblique slip below the edifice which augments the possibility of a westward collapse in the future.

MODEL UPDATING AND STRUCTURAL HEALTH MONITORING OF HORIZONTAL AXIS WIND TURBINES VIA ADVANCED SPINNING FINITE ELEMENTS AND STOCHASTIC SUBSPACE IDENTIFICATION METHODS

Wind energy has been one of the most growing sectors of the nation’s renewable energy portfolio for the past decade, and the same tendency is being projected for the upcoming years given the aggressive governmental policies for the reduction of fossil fuel dependency. Great technological expectation and outstanding commercial penetration has shown the so called Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWT) technologies. Given its great acceptance, size evolution of wind turbines over time has increased exponentially. However, safety and economical concerns have emerged as a result of the newly design tendencies for massive scale wind turbine structures presenting high slenderness ratios and complex shapes, typically located in remote areas (e.g. offshore wind farms). In this regard, safety operation requires not only having first-hand information regarding actual structural dynamic conditions under aerodynamic action, but also a deep understanding of the environmental factors in which these multibody rotating structures operate. Given the cyclo-stochastic patterns of the wind loading exerting pressure on a HAWT, a probabilistic framework is appropriate to characterize the risk of failure in terms of resistance and serviceability conditions, at any given time. Furthermore, sources of uncertainty such as material imperfections, buffeting and flutter, aeroelastic damping, gyroscopic effects, turbulence, among others, have pleaded for the use of a more sophisticated mathematical framework that could properly handle all these sources of indetermination. The attainable modeling complexity that arises as a result of these characterizations demands a data-driven experimental validation methodology to calibrate and corroborate the model. For this aim, System Identification (SI) techniques offer a spectrum of well-established numerical methods appropriated for stationary, deterministic, and data-driven numerical schemes, capable of predicting actual dynamic states (eigenrealizations) of traditional time-invariant dynamic systems. As a consequence, it is proposed a modified data-driven SI metric based on the so called Subspace Realization Theory, now adapted for stochastic non-stationary and timevarying systems, as is the case of HAWT’s complex aerodynamics. Simultaneously, this investigation explores the characterization of the turbine loading and response envelopes for critical failure modes of the structural components the wind turbine is made of. In the long run, both aerodynamic framework (theoretical model) and system identification (experimental model) will be merged in a numerical engine formulated as a search algorithm for model updating, also known as Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) process. This iterative engine is based on a set of function minimizations computed by a metric called Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC). In summary, the Thesis is composed of four major parts: (1) development of an analytical aerodynamic framework that predicts interacted wind-structure stochastic loads on wind turbine components; (2) development of a novel tapered-swept-corved Spinning Finite Element (SFE) that includes dampedgyroscopic effects and axial-flexural-torsional coupling; (3) a novel data-driven structural health monitoring (SHM) algorithm via stochastic subspace identification methods; and (4) a numerical search (optimization) engine based on ASA and MAC capable of updating the SFE aerodynamic model.

DESIGN OF EFFICIENT IN-NETWORK DATA PROCESSING AND DISSEMINATION FOR VANETS

By providing vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure wireless communications, vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs), also known as the “networks on wheels”, can greatly enhance traffic safety, traffic efficiency and driving experience for intelligent transportation system (ITS). However, the unique features of VANETs, such as high mobility and uneven distribution of vehicular nodes, impose critical challenges of high efficiency and reliability for the implementation of VANETs. This dissertation is motivated by the great application potentials of VANETs in the design of efficient in-network data processing and dissemination. Considering the significance of message aggregation, data dissemination and data collection, this dissertation research targets at enhancing the traffic safety and traffic efficiency, as well as developing novel commercial applications, based on VANETs, following four aspects: 1) accurate and efficient message aggregation to detect on-road safety relevant events, 2) reliable data dissemination to reliably notify remote vehicles, 3) efficient and reliable spatial data collection from vehicular sensors, and 4) novel promising applications to exploit the commercial potentials of VANETs. Specifically, to enable cooperative detection of safety relevant events on the roads, the structure-less message aggregation (SLMA) scheme is proposed to improve communication efficiency and message accuracy. The scheme of relative position based message dissemination (RPB-MD) is proposed to reliably and efficiently disseminate messages to all intended vehicles in the zone-of-relevance in varying traffic density. Due to numerous vehicular sensor data available based on VANETs, the scheme of compressive sampling based data collection (CS-DC) is proposed to efficiently collect the spatial relevance data in a large scale, especially in the dense traffic. In addition, with novel and efficient solutions proposed for the application specific issues of data dissemination and data collection, several appealing value-added applications for VANETs are developed to exploit the commercial potentials of VANETs, namely general purpose automatic survey (GPAS), VANET-based ambient ad dissemination (VAAD) and VANET based vehicle performance monitoring and analysis (VehicleView). Thus, by improving the efficiency and reliability in in-network data processing and dissemination, including message aggregation, data dissemination and data collection, together with the development of novel promising applications, this dissertation will help push VANETs further to the stage of massive deployment.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

VALIDATION OF A 'DISPLACEMENT TOMOGRAPHY' INVERSION METHOD FOR MODELING SHEET INTRUSIONS

The study of volcano deformation data can provide information on magma processes and help assess the potential for future eruptions. In employing inverse deformation modeling on these data, we attempt to characterize the geometry, location and volume/pressure change of a deformation source. Techniques currently used to model sheet intrusions (e.g., dikes and sills) often require significant a priori assumptions about source geometry and can require testing a large number of parameters. Moreover, surface deformations are a non-linear function of the source geometry and location. This requires the use of Monte Carlo inversion techniques which leads to long computation times. Recently, ‘displacement tomography’ models have been used to characterize magma reservoirs by inverting source deformation data for volume changes using a grid of point sources in the subsurface. The computations involved in these models are less intensive as no assumptions are made on the source geometry and location, and the relationship between the point sources and the surface deformation is linear. In this project, seeking a less computationally intensive technique for fracture sources, we tested if this displacement tomography method for reservoirs could be used for sheet intrusions. We began by simulating the opening of three synthetic dikes of known geometry and location using an established deformation model for fracture sources. We then sought to reproduce the displacements and volume changes undergone by the fractures using the sources employed in the tomography methodology. Results of this validation indicate the volumetric point sources are not appropriate for locating fracture sources, however they may provide useful qualitative information on volume changes occurring in the surrounding rock, and therefore indirectly indicate the source location.

DATA DRIVEN INTELLIGENT AGENT NETWORKS FOR ADAPTIVE MONITORING AND CONTROL

To analyze the characteristics and predict the dynamic behaviors of complex systems over time, comprehensive research to enable the development of systems that can intelligently adapt to the evolving conditions and infer new knowledge with algorithms that are not predesigned is crucially needed. This dissertation research studies the integration of the techniques and methodologies resulted from the fields of pattern recognition, intelligent agents, artificial immune systems, and distributed computing platforms, to create technologies that can more accurately describe and control the dynamics of real-world complex systems. The need for such technologies is emerging in manufacturing, transportation, hazard mitigation, weather and climate prediction, homeland security, and emergency response. Motivated by the ability of mobile agents to dynamically incorporate additional computational and control algorithms into executing applications, mobile agent technology is employed in this research for the adaptive sensing and monitoring in a wireless sensor network. Mobile agents are software components that can travel from one computing platform to another in a network and carry programs and data states that are needed for performing the assigned tasks. To support the generation, migration, communication, and management of mobile monitoring agents, an embeddable mobile agent system (Mobile-C) is integrated with sensor nodes. Mobile monitoring agents visit distributed sensor nodes, read real-time sensor data, and perform anomaly detection using the equipped pattern recognition algorithms. The optimal control of agents is achieved by mimicking the adaptive immune response and the application of multi-objective optimization algorithms. The mobile agent approach provides potential to reduce the communication load and energy consumption in monitoring networks. The major research work of this dissertation project includes: (1) studying effective feature extraction methods for time series measurement data; (2) investigating the impact of the feature extraction methods and dissimilarity measures on the performance of pattern recognition; (3) researching the effects of environmental factors on the performance of pattern recognition; (4) integrating an embeddable mobile agent system with wireless sensor nodes; (5) optimizing agent generation and distribution using artificial immune system concept and multi-objective algorithms; (6) applying mobile agent technology and pattern recognition algorithms for adaptive structural health monitoring and driving cycle pattern recognition; (7) developing a web-based monitoring network to enable the visualization and analysis of real-time sensor data remotely. Techniques and algorithms developed in this dissertation project will contribute to research advances in networked distributed systems operating under changing environments.