Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

ASTAXANTHIN PRODUCTION FROM HAEMATOCOCCUS PLUVIALIS UNDER VARIOUS LIGHT INTENSITIES AND CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS

The microalga Haematococcus pluvialis was cultivated in MES-volvox medium at various light intensities and CO2 concentrations. It was found that CO2 concentrations of 10 and 15%, in combination with high irradiance at initial pH =6.7, accelerate astaxanthin accumulation in H. pluvialis cells but obstruct cell growth. The purpose of this research study was to devise a one-stage process consisting of the simultaneous cultivation of H. pluvialis and astaxanthin production using high light intensity and high CO2 concentration. This could be achieved at 200 µE/m2s and 15% CO2 in growth medium at initial pH = 4.3. Compared to the traditional two-stage H. pluvialis cultivation system, this one-step process can save up to 8-9 days of astaxanthin production time. The astaxanthin content in H. pluvialis cells induced with high light intensity only or with a combination of high light intensity and high CO2 concentration had comparable astaxanthin content; 94 and 97 mg/g dry biomass, respectively. However, it was extremely low in nitrate-free medium at high irradiance alone or combined with high CO2 concentration, with an average value of 4 mg/g dry biomass. Cell density was 40% less in cultures under discontinuous illumination compared to continuous illumination. This process could serve as a microalgal CO2 mitigation system after further understanding of the CO2 fixation ability of H. pluvialis has been gained.

CHANGE FOR GOOD? AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN PERCEIVED BENEFITS BY ENGOS AND USER SATISFACTION OF SOLAR BOTTLE LIGHTS IN INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS OF DHAKA CITY, BANGLADESH

A major challenge for a developing country such as Bangladesh is to supply basic services to its most marginalized populations, which includes both rural and urban dwellers. The government struggles to provide basic necessities such as water and electricity. In marginalized urban communities in Bangladesh, in particular informal settlements, meeting basic needs is even direr. Most informal settlements are built to respond to a rapid immigration to urban centers, and are thought of as ‘temporary structures’, though many structures have been there for decades. In addition, as the settlements are often squatting on private land, access to formalized services such as electricity or water is largely absent. In some cases, electricity and water connections are brought in - but through informal and non-government sanctioned ways -- these hookups are deemed ‘illegal’ by the state. My research will focus on recent efforts to help ameliorate issues associated with lack of basic services in informal settlements in Bangladesh – in this case lack of light. When the government fails to meet the needs of the general population, different non-government organizations tend to step in to intervene. A new emphasis on solar bottle systems in informal urban settlement areas to help address some energy needs (specifically day-time lighting). One such example is the solar bottle light in Bangladesh, a project introduced by the organization ‘Change’. There has been mixed reactions on this technology among the users. This is where my research intervenes. I have used quantitative method to investigate user satisfactions for the solar bottle lights among the residents of the informal settlements to address the overarching question, is there a disconnect between the perceived benefits of the ENGO and the user satisfaction of the residents of the informal settlements of Dhaka City? This paper uses survey responses to investigate level of user satisfaction and the contributing factors.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC, CLIMATE, AND POLICY INDUCED CHANGES OF PHOSPHORUS EXPORT IN THE UNITED STATES LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS

Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.