Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Online distribution management framework by incorporating wind generation

In distribution system operations, dispatchers at control center closely monitor system operating limits to ensure system reliability and adequacy. This reliability is partly due to the provision of remote controllable tie and sectionalizing switches. While the stochastic nature of wind generation can impact the level of wind energy penetration in the network, an estimate of the output from wind on hourly basis can be extremely useful. Under any operating conditions, the switching actions require human intervention and can be an extremely stressful task. Currently, handling a set of switching combinations with the uncertainty of distributed wind generation as part of the decision variables has been nonexistent. This thesis proposes a three-fold online management framework: (1) prediction of wind speed, (2) estimation of wind generation capacity, and (3) enumeration of feasible switching combinations. The proposed methodology is evaluated on 29-node test system with 8 remote controllable switches and two wind farms of 18MW and 9MW nameplate capacities respectively for generating the sequence of system reconfiguration states during normal and emergency conditions.

"The need obliged us" : culture as capacity during the Hurricane Stan emergency response. A case study from Tectitan, Huehuetenango, Guatemala

A major deficiency in disaster management plans is the assumption that pre-disaster civil-society does not have the capacity to respond effectively during crises. Following from this assumption a dominant emergency management strategy is to replace weak civil-society organizations with specialized disaster organizations that are often either military or Para-military and seek to centralize decision-making. Many criticisms have been made of this approach, but few specifically addresses disasters in the developing world. Disasters in the developing world present unique problems not seen in the developed world because they often occur in the context of compromised governments, and marginalized populations. In this context it is often community members themselves who possess the greatest capacity to respond to disasters. This paper focuses on the capacity of community groups to respond to disaster in a small town in rural Guatemala. Key informant interviews and ethnographic observations are used to reconstruct the community response to the disaster instigated by Hurricane Stan (2005) in the municipality of Tectitán in the Huehuetenango department. The interviews were analyzed using techniques adapted from grounded theory to construct a narrative of the events, and identify themes in the community’s disaster behavior. These themes are used to critique the emergency management plans advocated by the Guatemalan National Coordination for the Reduction of Disasters (CONRED). This paper argues that CONRED uncritically adopts emergency management strategies that do not account for the local realities in communities throughout Guatemala. The response in Tectitán was characterized by the formation of new organizations, whose actions and leadership structure were derived from “normal” or routine life. It was found that pre-existing social networks were resilient and easily re-oriented meet the novel needs of a crisis. New or emergent groups that formed during the disaster utilized social capital accrued by routine collective behavior, and employed organizational strategies derived from “normal” community relations. Based on the effectiveness of this response CONRED could improve its emergency planning on the local-level by utilizing the pre-existing community organizations rather than insisting that new disaster-specific organizations be formed.

Structural response and dynamics of fluid-structure-control interaction in wind turbine blades

Reducing the uncertainties related to blade dynamics by the improvement of the quality of numerical simulations of the fluid structure interaction process is a key for a breakthrough in wind-turbine technology. A fundamental step in that direction is the implementation of aeroelastic models capable of capturing the complex features of innovative prototype blades, so they can be tested at realistic full-scale conditions with a reasonable computational cost. We make use of a code based on a combination of two advanced numerical models implemented in a parallel HPC supercomputer platform: First, a model of the structural response of heterogeneous composite blades, based on a variation of the dimensional reduction technique proposed by Hodges and Yu. This technique has the capacity of reducing the geometrical complexity of the blade section into a stiffness matrix for an equivalent beam. The reduced 1-D strain energy is equivalent to the actual 3-D strain energy in an asymptotic sense, allowing accurate modeling of the blade structure as a 1-D finite-element problem. This substantially reduces the computational effort required to model the structural dynamics at each time step. Second, a novel aerodynamic model based on an advanced implementation of the BEM(Blade ElementMomentum) Theory; where all velocities and forces are re-projected through orthogonal matrices into the instantaneous deformed configuration to fully include the effects of large displacements and rotation of the airfoil sections into the computation of aerodynamic forces. This allows the aerodynamic model to take into account the effects of the complex flexo-torsional deformation that can be captured by the more sophisticated structural model mentioned above. In this thesis we have successfully developed a powerful computational tool for the aeroelastic analysis of wind-turbine blades. Due to the particular features mentioned above in terms of a full representation of the combined modes of deformation of the blade as a complex structural part and their effects on the aerodynamic loads, it constitutes a substantial advancement ahead the state-of-the-art aeroelastic models currently available, like the FAST-Aerodyn suite. In this thesis, we also include the results of several experiments on the NREL-5MW blade, which is widely accepted today as a benchmark blade, together with some modifications intended to explore the capacities of the new code in terms of capturing features on blade-dynamic behavior, which are normally overlooked by the existing aeroelastic models.

Wind plant interaction with series-compensated power systems

Wind power based generation has been rapidly growing world-wide during the recent past. In order to transmit large amounts of wind power over long distances, system planners may often add series compensation to existing transmission lines owing to several benefits such as improved steady-state power transfer limit, improved transient stability, and efficient utilization of transmission infrastructure. Application of series capacitors has posed resonant interaction concerns such as through subsynchronous resonance (SSR) with conventional turbine-generators. Wind turbine-generators may also be susceptible to such resonant interactions. However, not much information is available in literature and even engineering standards are yet to address these issues. The motivation problem for this research is based on an actual system switching event that resulted in undamped oscillations in a 345-kV series-compensated, typical ring-bus power system configuration. Based on time-domain ATP (Alternative Transients Program) modeling, simulations and analysis of system event records, the occurrence of subsynchronous interactions within the existing 345-kV series-compensated power system has been investigated. Effects of various small-signal and large-signal power system disturbances with both identical and non-identical wind turbine parameters (such as with a statistical-spread) has been evaluated. Effect of parameter variations on subsynchronous oscillations has been quantified using 3D-DFT plots and the oscillations have been identified as due to electrical self-excitation effects, rather than torsional interaction. Further, the generator no-load reactance and the rotor-side converter inner-loop controller gains have been identified as bearing maximum sensitivity to either damping or exacerbating the self-excited oscillations. A higher-order spectral analysis method based on modified Prony estimation has been successfully applied to the field records identifying dominant 9.79 Hz subsynchronous oscillations. Recommendations have been made for exploring countermeasures.

COMPUTATIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE AEROELASTIC DYNAMICS OF A WIND TURBINE BLADE WITH VARIABLE-SPEED STALL CONTROL

The accuracy of simulating the aerodynamics and structural properties of the blades is crucial in the wind-turbine technology. Hence the models used to implement these features need to be very precise and their level of detailing needs to be high. With the variety of blade designs being developed the models should be versatile enough to adapt to the changes required by every design. We are going to implement a combination of numerical models which are associated with the structural and the aerodynamic part of the simulation using the computational power of a parallel HPC cluster. The structural part models the heterogeneous internal structure of the beam based on a novel implementation of the Generalized Timoshenko Beam Model Technique.. Using this technique the 3-D structure of the blade is reduced into a 1-D beam which is asymptotically equivalent. This reduces the computational cost of the model without compromising its accuracy. This structural model interacts with the Flow model which is a modified version of the Blade Element Momentum Theory. The modified version of the BEM accounts for the large deflections of the blade and also considers the pre-defined structure of the blade. The coning, sweeping of the blade, tilt of the nacelle and the twist of the sections along the blade length are all computed by the model which aren’t considered in the classical BEM theory. Each of these two models provides feedback to the other and the interactive computations lead to more accurate outputs. We successfully implemented the computational models to analyze and simulate the structural and aerodynamic aspects of the blades. The interactive nature of these models and their ability to recompute data using the feedback from each other makes this code more efficient than the commercial codes available. In this thesis we start off with the verification of these models by testing it on the well-known benchmark blade for the NREL-5MW Reference Wind Turbine, an alternative fixed-speed stall-controlled blade design proposed by Delft University, and a novel alternative design that we proposed for a variable-speed stall-controlled turbine, which offers the potential for more uniform power control and improved annual energy production.. To optimize the power output of the stall-controlled blade we modify the existing designs and study their behavior using the aforementioned aero elastic model.

MULTIDIMENSIONAL OPTIMAL DROOP CONTROL FOR WIND RESOURCES IN DC MICROGRIDS

Two important and upcoming technologies, microgrids and electricity generation from wind resources, are increasingly being combined. Various control strategies can be implemented, and droop control provides a simple option without requiring communication between microgrid components. Eliminating the single source of potential failure around the communication system is especially important in remote, islanded microgrids, which are considered in this work. However, traditional droop control does not allow the microgrid to utilize much of the power available from the wind. This dissertation presents a novel droop control strategy, which implements a droop surface in higher dimension than the traditional strategy. The droop control relationship then depends on two variables: the dc microgrid bus voltage, and the wind speed at the current time. An approach for optimizing this droop control surface in order to meet a given objective, for example utilizing all of the power available from a wind resource, is proposed and demonstrated. Various cases are used to test the proposed optimal high dimension droop control method, and demonstrate its function. First, the use of linear multidimensional droop control without optimization is demonstrated through simulation. Next, an optimal high dimension droop control surface is implemented with a simple dc microgrid containing two sources and one load. Various cases for changing load and wind speed are investigated using simulation and hardware-in-the-loop techniques. Optimal multidimensional droop control is demonstrated with a wind resource in a full dc microgrid example, containing an energy storage device as well as multiple sources and loads. Finally, the optimal high dimension droop control method is applied with a solar resource, and using a load model developed for a military patrol base application. The operation of the proposed control is again investigated using simulation and hardware-in-the-loop techniques.

MODEL UPDATING AND STRUCTURAL HEALTH MONITORING OF HORIZONTAL AXIS WIND TURBINES VIA ADVANCED SPINNING FINITE ELEMENTS AND STOCHASTIC SUBSPACE IDENTIFICATION METHODS

Wind energy has been one of the most growing sectors of the nation’s renewable energy portfolio for the past decade, and the same tendency is being projected for the upcoming years given the aggressive governmental policies for the reduction of fossil fuel dependency. Great technological expectation and outstanding commercial penetration has shown the so called Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWT) technologies. Given its great acceptance, size evolution of wind turbines over time has increased exponentially. However, safety and economical concerns have emerged as a result of the newly design tendencies for massive scale wind turbine structures presenting high slenderness ratios and complex shapes, typically located in remote areas (e.g. offshore wind farms). In this regard, safety operation requires not only having first-hand information regarding actual structural dynamic conditions under aerodynamic action, but also a deep understanding of the environmental factors in which these multibody rotating structures operate. Given the cyclo-stochastic patterns of the wind loading exerting pressure on a HAWT, a probabilistic framework is appropriate to characterize the risk of failure in terms of resistance and serviceability conditions, at any given time. Furthermore, sources of uncertainty such as material imperfections, buffeting and flutter, aeroelastic damping, gyroscopic effects, turbulence, among others, have pleaded for the use of a more sophisticated mathematical framework that could properly handle all these sources of indetermination. The attainable modeling complexity that arises as a result of these characterizations demands a data-driven experimental validation methodology to calibrate and corroborate the model. For this aim, System Identification (SI) techniques offer a spectrum of well-established numerical methods appropriated for stationary, deterministic, and data-driven numerical schemes, capable of predicting actual dynamic states (eigenrealizations) of traditional time-invariant dynamic systems. As a consequence, it is proposed a modified data-driven SI metric based on the so called Subspace Realization Theory, now adapted for stochastic non-stationary and timevarying systems, as is the case of HAWT’s complex aerodynamics. Simultaneously, this investigation explores the characterization of the turbine loading and response envelopes for critical failure modes of the structural components the wind turbine is made of. In the long run, both aerodynamic framework (theoretical model) and system identification (experimental model) will be merged in a numerical engine formulated as a search algorithm for model updating, also known as Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) process. This iterative engine is based on a set of function minimizations computed by a metric called Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC). In summary, the Thesis is composed of four major parts: (1) development of an analytical aerodynamic framework that predicts interacted wind-structure stochastic loads on wind turbine components; (2) development of a novel tapered-swept-corved Spinning Finite Element (SFE) that includes dampedgyroscopic effects and axial-flexural-torsional coupling; (3) a novel data-driven structural health monitoring (SHM) algorithm via stochastic subspace identification methods; and (4) a numerical search (optimization) engine based on ASA and MAC capable of updating the SFE aerodynamic model.