The influence of concurrent disturbances on plant community dynamics in northern hemlock-hardwood forests

Throughout the Upper Great Lakes region, alterations to historic disturbance regimes have influenced plant community dynamics in hemlock-hardwood forests. Several important mesic forest species, eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis), yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis), eastern white pine (Pinus strobus), and Canada yew (Taxus canadensis), are in decline due to exploitive logging practices used at the turn of the 20th century and the wave of intense fires that followed. Continued regeneration and recruitment failure is attributed to contemporary forest management practices and overbrowsing by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Therefore, I examined the influence of two concurrent disturbances, overstory removal and herbivory, on plant community dynamics in two hemlock-hardwood forests. I measured the post-disturbance regeneration response (herbaceous and woody species) inside and outside of deer exclosures in 20 artificial canopy gaps (50 – 450 m2) and monitored survival and growth for hundreds of planted seedlings. The results of this research show that interacting disturbances can play a large role in shaping plant community composition and structure in hemlock-hardwood forests. White-tailed deer herbivory homogenized the post-disturbance plant communities across the experimental gradient of gap areas, essentially making species compositions in small gaps “look like” those in large gaps. Deer browsing also influenced probability of survival for planted Canada yew cuttings; all else being equal an individual was nearly seven times more likely to survive if protected from herbivory (P < 0.001). In contrast, the ability of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) to persist under high levels of herbivory and respond rapidly to overstory release appears to be related to the presence of stem layering(i.e., portions of below-ground prostrate stem). Layering occurred in 52% of excavated saplings (n = 100) and was significantly associated with increased post-disturbance height growth. Understory light was also important to planted seedling establishment and height growth. Higher levels of direct under-canopy light negatively impacted survival for shade-tolerant hemlock and Canada yew, while an increase in diffuse light was linked to a higher probability of survival for yellow birch and height growth for hemlock and Canada yew. Increases in white pine height growth were also significantly associated with a decrease in canopy cover.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

FACTORS AFFECTING DIPOREIA GROWTH RATES IN LAKE SUPERIOR

An ability to predict population dynamics of the amphipod Diporeia is important in understanding how energy pathways in the Lake Superior food web might be altered by disturbances to the ecosystem. Estimating growth rates for this prominent prey item for fish requires information on the physiological effects of changes to its environment. These effects have been investigated for Diporeia in other Great Lakes, but little is known about Lake Superior populations. The primary objective of this study is to obtain quantitative data for rates of Diporeia respiration and consumption that can be incorporated into a bioenergetics model for Lake Superior. Benthic communities in Lake Superior were sampled bimonthly from April through September during 2011 and 2012 to investigate spatial and temporal trends of Diporeia abundances as well as size class structures of the population. Additional samples of Diporeia were collected and kept alive in natural sediment for laboratory experiments. Respiration rates for Diporeia were measured by monitoring dissolved oxygen concentrations in microcosoms using microelectrodes. Additionally, a series of experiments to estimate consumption rates based on food availability were conducted using 14C-labeled algae (Selenastrum capricornutum). Amphipod population densities are highest between 30-110 m (slope) compared to 0-30 m (shelf) or >110 m (profundal) regions in Lake Superior. This heterogeneous distribution of Diporeia in Lake Superior is an important component to quantifying lake-wide biomass. Rates of oxygen consumption by Diporeia range from 32.0 to 44.7 mgO2*gDW-1*d-1, and do not vary significantly with body size per individual. The predicted consumption rate corresponding to average Lake Superior algal carbon fluxes was 0.08 ± SE mgC*gDW-1*d-1. Data on Lake Superior Diporeia biomass and bioenergetics found in this study can be incorporated in a model used to estimate the viability of this population under potential future environmental stressors.