FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Design, construction, and testing of a research quality electric machine testbed

With energy demands and costs growing every day, the need for improving energy efficiency in electrical devices has become very important. Research into various methods of improving efficiency for all electrical components will be a key to meet future energy needs. This report documents the design, construction, and testing of a research quality electric machine dynamometer and test bed. This test cell system can be used for research in several areas including: electric drives systems, electric vehicle propulsion systems, power electronic converters, load/source element in an AC Microgrid, as well as many others. The test cell design criteria, and decisions, will be discussed in reference to user functionality and flexibility. The individual power components will be discussed in detail to how they relate to the project, highlighting any feature used in operation of the test cell. A project timeline will be discussed, clearly stating the work done by the different individuals involved in the project. In addition, the system will be parameterized and benchmark data will be used to provide the functional operation of the system. With energy demands and costs growing every day, the need for improving energy efficiency in electrical devices has become very important. Research into various methods of improving efficiency for all electrical components will be a key to meet future energy needs. This report documents the design, construction, and testing of a research quality electric machine dynamometer and test bed. This test cell system can be used for research in several areas including: electric drives systems, electric vehicle propulsion systems, power electronic converters, load/source element in an AC Microgrid, as well as many others. The test cell design criteria, and decisions, will be discussed in reference to user functionality and flexibility. The individual power components will be discussed in detail to how they relate to the project, highlighting any feature used in operation of the test cell. A project timeline will be discussed, clearly stating the work done by the different individuals involved in the project. In addition, the system will be parameterized and benchmark data will be used to provide the functional operation of the system.

Managing server energy and reducing operational cost for online service providers

The past decade has seen the energy consumption in servers and Internet Data Centers (IDCs) skyrocket. A recent survey estimated that the worldwide spending on servers and cooling have risen to above $30 billion and is likely to exceed spending on the new server hardware . The rapid rise in energy consumption has posted a serious threat to both energy resources and the environment, which makes green computing not only worthwhile but also necessary. This dissertation intends to tackle the challenges of both reducing the energy consumption of server systems and by reducing the cost for Online Service Providers (OSPs). Two distinct subsystems account for most of IDC’s power: the server system, which accounts for 56% of the total power consumption of an IDC, and the cooling and humidifcation systems, which accounts for about 30% of the total power consumption. The server system dominates the energy consumption of an IDC, and its power draw can vary drastically with data center utilization. In this dissertation, we propose three models to achieve energy effciency in web server clusters: an energy proportional model, an optimal server allocation and frequency adjustment strategy, and a constrained Markov model. The proposed models have combined Dynamic Voltage/Frequency Scaling (DV/FS) and Vary-On, Vary-off (VOVF) mechanisms that work together for more energy savings. Meanwhile, corresponding strategies are proposed to deal with the transition overheads. We further extend server energy management to the IDC’s costs management, helping the OSPs to conserve, manage their own electricity cost, and lower the carbon emissions. We have developed an optimal energy-aware load dispatching strategy that periodically maps more requests to the locations with lower electricity prices. A carbon emission limit is placed, and the volatility of the carbon offset market is also considered. Two energy effcient strategies are applied to the server system and the cooling system respectively. With the rapid development of cloud services, we also carry out research to reduce the server energy in cloud computing environments. In this work, we propose a new live virtual machine (VM) placement scheme that can effectively map VMs to Physical Machines (PMs) with substantial energy savings in a heterogeneous server cluster. A VM/PM mapping probability matrix is constructed, in which each VM request is assigned with a probability running on PMs. The VM/PM mapping probability matrix takes into account resource limitations, VM operation overheads, server reliability as well as energy effciency. The evolution of Internet Data Centers and the increasing demands of web services raise great challenges to improve the energy effciency of IDCs. We also express several potential areas for future research in each chapter.

ADVENTURES IN FRIEDMANN COSMOLOGIES---INTERACTION OF POSITIVE ENERGY DENSITIES WITH NEGATIVE ENERGY DENSITIES AND CURVATURE OF THE UNIVERSE

In this report we will investigate the effect of negative energy density in a classic Friedmann cosmology. Although never measured and possibly unphysical, the evolution of a Universe containing a significant cosmological abundance of any of a number of hypothetical stable negative energy components is explored. These negative energy (Ω < 0) forms include negative phantom energy (w<-1), negative cosmological constant (w=-1), negative domain walls (w=-2/3), negative cosmic strings (w= -1/3), negative mass (w=0), negative radiation (w=1/3), and negative ultra-light (w > 1/3). Assuming that such universe components generate pressures as perfect fluids, the attractive or repulsive nature of each negative energy component is reviewed. The Friedmann equations can only be balanced when negative energies are coupled to a greater magnitude of positive energy or positive curvature, and minimal cases of both of these are reviewed. The future and fate of such universes in terms of curvature, temperature, acceleration, and energy density are reviewed including endings categorized as a Big Crunch, Big Void, or Big Rip and further qualified as "Warped", "Curved", or "Flat", "Hot" versus "Cold", "Accelerating" versus" Decelerating" versus "Coasting". A universe that ends by contracting to zero energy density is termed a Big Poof. Which contracting universes ``bounce" in expansion and which expanding universes ``turnover" into contraction are also reviewed. The name by which the ending of the Universe is mentioned is our own nomenclature.

LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT OF BIOFUEL PRODUCED FROM ALGAE

Algae are considered a promising source of biofuels in the future. However, the environmental impact of algae-based fuel has high variability in previous LCA studies due to lack of accurate data from researchers and industry. The National Alliance for Advanced Biofuels and Bioproducts (NAABB) project was designed to produce and evaluate new technologies that can be implemented by the algal biofuel industry and establish the overall process sustainability. The MTU research group within NAABB worked on the environmental sustainability part of the consortium with UOP-Honeywell and with the University of Arizona (Dr. Paul Blowers). Several life cycle analysis (LCA) models were developed within the GREET Model and SimaPro 7.3 software to quantitatively assess the environment viability and sustainability of algal fuel processes. The baseline GREET Harmonized algae life cycle was expanded and replicated in SimaPro software, important differences in emission factors between GREET/E-Grid database and SimaPro/Ecoinvent database were compared, and adjustments were made to the SimaPro analyses. The results indicated that in most cases SimaPro has a higher emission penalty for inputs of electricity, chemicals, and other materials to the algae biofuels life cycle. A system-wide model of algae life cycle was made starting with preliminary data from the literature, and then progressed to detailed analyses based on inputs from all NAABB research areas, and finally several important scenarios in the algae life cycle were investigated as variations to the baseline scenario. Scenarios include conversion to jet fuel instead of biodiesel or renewable diesel, impacts of infrastructure for algae cultivation, co-product allocation methodology, and different usage of lipid-extracted algae (LEA). The infrastructure impact of algae cultivation is minimal compared to the overall life cycle. However, in the scenarios investigating LEA usage for animal feed instead of internal recycling for energy use and nutrient recovery the results reflect the high potential variability in LCA results. Calculated life cycle GHG values for biofuel production scenarios where LEA is used as animal feed ranged from a 55% reduction to 127% increase compared to the GREET baseline scenario depending on the choice of feed meal. Different allocation methods also affect LCA results significantly. Four novel harvesting technologies and two extraction technologies provided by the NAABB internal report have been analysis using SimaPro LCA software. The results indicated that a combination of acoustic extraction and acoustic harvesting technologies show the most promising result of all combinations to optimize the extraction of algae oil from algae. These scenario evaluations provide important insights for consideration when planning for the future of an algae-based biofuel industry.

Functional ZnO nanostructures for electronic and energy applications

ZnO has proven to be a multifunctional material with important nanotechnological applications. ZnO nanostructures can be grown in various forms such as nanowires, nanorods, nanobelts, nanocombs etc. In this work, ZnO nanostructures are grown in a double quartz tube configuration thermal Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) system. We focus on functionalized ZnO Nanostructures by controlling their structures and tuning their properties for various applications. The following topics have been investigated: 1. We have fabricated various ZnO nanostructures using a thermal CVD technique. The growth parameters were optimized and studied for different nanostructures. 2. We have studied the application of ZnO nanowires (ZnONWs) for field effect transistors (FETs). Unintentional n-type conductivity was observed in our FETs based on as-grown ZnO NWs. We have then shown for the first time that controlled incorporation of hydrogen into ZnO NWs can introduce p-type characters to the nanowires. We further found that the n-type behaviors remained, leading to the ambipolar behaviors of hydrogen incorporated ZnO NWs. Importantly, the detected p- and n- type behaviors are stable for longer than two years when devices were kept in ambient conditions. All these can be explained by an ab initio model of Zn vacancy-Hydrogen complexes, which can serve as the donor, acceptors, or green photoluminescence quencher, depend on the number of hydrogen atoms involved. 3. Next ZnONWs were tested for electron field emission. We focus on reducing the threshold field (Eth) of field emission from non-aligned ZnO NWs. As encouraged by our results on enhancing the conductivity of ZnO NWs by hydrogen annealing described in Chapter 3, we have studied the effect of hydrogen annealing for improving field emission behavior of our ZnO NWs. We found that optimally annealed ZnO NWs offered much lower threshold electric field and improved emission stability. We also studied field emission from ZnO NWs at moderate vacuum levels. We found that there exists a minimum Eth as we scale the threshold field with pressure. This behavior is explained by referring to Paschen’s law. 4. We have studied the application of ZnO nanostructures for solar energy harvesting. First, as-grown and (CdSe) ZnS QDs decorated ZnO NBs and ZnONWs were tested for photocurrent generation. All these nanostructures offered fast response time to solar radiation. The decoration of QDs decreases the stable current level produced by ZnONWs but increases that generated by NBs. It is possible that NBs offer more stable surfaces for the attachment of QDs. In addition, our results suggests that performance degradation of solar cells made by growing ZnO NWs on ITO is due to the increase in resistance of ITO after the high temperature growth process. Hydrogen annealing also improve the efficiency of the solar cells by decreasing the resistance of ITO. Due to the issues on ITO, we use Ni foil as the growth substrates. Performance of solar cells made by growing ZnO NWs on Ni foils degraded after Hydrogen annealing at both low (300 °C) and high (600 °C) temperatures since annealing passivates native defects in ZnONWs and thus reduce the absorption of visible spectra from our solar simulator. Decoration of QDs improves the efficiency of such solar cells by increasing absorption of light in the visible region. Using a better electrolyte than phosphate buffer solution (PBS) such as KI also improves the solar cell efficiency. 5. Finally, we have attempted p-type doping of ZnO NWs using various growth precursors including phosphorus pentoxide, sodium fluoride, and zinc fluoride. We have also attempted to create p-type carriers via introducing interstitial fluorine by annealing ZnO nanostructures in diluted fluorine gas. In brief, we are unable to reproduce the growth of reported p-type ZnO nanostructures. However; we have identified the window of temperature and duration of post-growth annealing of ZnO NWs in dilute fluorine gas which leads to suppression of native defects. This is the first experimental effort on post-growth annealing of ZnO NWs in dilute fluorine gas although this has been suggested by a recent theory for creating p-type semiconductors. In our experiments the defect band peak due to native defects is found to decrease by annealing at 300 °C for 10 – 30 minutes. One of the major future works will be to determine the type of charge carriers in our annealed ZnONWs.

THE USE OF LIFE-CYCLE ANALYSIS TO REDUCE THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF MATERIALS IN MANUFACTURING

This thesis is composed of three life-cycle analysis (LCA) studies of manufacturing to determine cumulative energy demand (CED) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). The methods proposed could reduce the environmental impact by reducing the CED in three manufacturing processes. First, industrial symbiosis is proposed and a LCA is performed on both conventional 1 GW-scaled hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H)-based single junction and a-Si:H/microcrystalline-Si:H tandem cell solar PV manufacturing plants and such plants coupled to silane recycling plants. Using a recycling process that results in a silane loss of only 17 versus 85 percent, this results in a CED savings of 81,700 GJ and 290,000 GJ per year for single and tandem junction plants, respectively. This recycling process reduces the cost of raw silane by 68 percent, or approximately $22.6 and $79 million per year for a single and tandem 1 GW PV production facility, respectively. The results show environmental benefits of silane recycling centered around a-Si:H-based PV manufacturing plants. Second, an open-source self-replicating rapid prototype or 3-D printer, the RepRap, has the potential to reduce the environmental impact of manufacturing of polymer-based products, using distributed manufacturing paradigm, which is further minimized by the use of PV and improvements in PV manufacturing. Using 3-D printers for manufacturing provides the ability to ultra-customize products and to change fill composition, which increases material efficiency. An LCA was performed on three polymer-based products to determine the CED and GHG from conventional large-scale production and are compared to experimental measurements on a RepRap producing identical products with ABS and PLA. The results of this LCA study indicate that the CED of manufacturing polymer products can possibly be reduced using distributed manufacturing with existing 3-D printers under 89% fill and reduced even further with a solar photovoltaic system. The results indicate that the ability of RepRaps to vary fill has the potential to diminish environmental impact on many products. Third, one additional way to improve the environmental performance of this distributed manufacturing system is to create the polymer filament feedstock for 3-D printers using post-consumer plastic bottles. An LCA was performed on the recycling of high density polyethylene (HDPE) using the RecycleBot. The results of the LCA showed that distributed recycling has a lower CED than the best-case scenario used for centralized recycling. If this process is applied to the HDPE currently recycled in the U.S., more than 100 million MJ of energy could be conserved per annum along with significant reductions in GHG. This presents a novel path to a future of distributed manufacturing suited for both the developed and developing world with reduced environmental impact. From improving manufacturing in the photovoltaic industry with the use of recycling to recycling and manufacturing plastic products within our own homes, each step reduces the impact on the environment. The three coupled projects presented here show a clear potential to reduce the environmental impact of manufacturing and other processes by implementing complimenting systems, which have environmental benefits of their own in order to achieve a compounding effect of reduced CED and GHG.

CAN CHINA USE ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES INSTEAD OF COAL TO PROVIDE MORE ELECTRICITY BY 2030?

Following the rapid growth of China's economy, energy consumption, especially electricity consumption of China, has made a huge increase in the past 30 years. Since China has been using coal as the major energy source to produce electricity during these years, environmental problems have become more and more serious. The research question for this paper is: "Can China use alternative energies instead of coal to produce more electricity in 2030?" Hydro power, nuclear power, natural gas, wind power and solar power are considered as the possible and most popular alternative energies for the current situation of China. To answer the research question above, there are two things to know: How much is the total electricity consumption in China by 2030? And how much electricity can the alternative energies provide in China by 2030? For a more reliable forecast, an econometric model using the Ordinary Least Squares Method is established on this paper to predict the total electricity consumption by 2030. The predicted electricity coming from alternative energy sources by 2030 in China can be calculated from the existing literature. The research results of this paper are analyzed under a reference scenario and a max tech scenario. In the reference scenario, the combination of the alternative energies can provide 47.71% of the total electricity consumption by 2030. In the max tech scenario, it provides 57.96% of the total electricity consumption by 2030. These results are important not only because they indicate the government's long term goal is reachable, but also implies that the natural environment of China could have an inspiring future.

EVALUATING THE OIL SANDS RECLAMATION PROCESS: ASSESSING POLICY CAPACITY AND STAKEHOLDER ACCESS FOR GOVERNMENT AND NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS OPERATING IN ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS

By employing interpretive policy analysis this thesis aims to assess, measure, and explain policy capacity for government and non-government organizations involved in reclaiming Alberta's oil sands. Using this type of analysis to assess policy capacity is a novel approach for understanding reclamation policy; and therefore, this research will provide a unique contribution to the literature surrounding reclamation policy. The oil sands region in northeast Alberta, Canada is an area of interest for a few reasons; primarily because of the vast reserves of bitumen and the environmental cost associated with developing this resource. An increase in global oil demand has established incentive for industry to seek out and develop new reserves. Alberta's oil sands are one of the largest remaining reserves in the world, and there is significant interest in increasing production in this region. Furthermore, tensions in several oil exporting nations in the Middle East remain unresolved, and this has garnered additional support for a supply side solution to North American oil demands. This solution relies upon the development of reserves in both the United States and Canada. These compounding factors have contributed to the increased development in the oil sands of northeastern Alberta. Essentially, a rapid expansion of oil sands operations is ongoing, and is the source of significant disturbance across the region. This disturbance, and the promises of reclamation, is a source of contentious debates amongst stakeholders and continues to be highly visible in the media. If oil sands operations are to retain their social license to operate, it is critical that reclamation efforts be effective. One concern non-governmental organizations (NGOs) expressed criticizes the current monitoring and enforcement of regulatory programs in the oil sands. Alberta's NGOs have suggested the data made available to them originates from industrial sources, and is generally unchecked by government. In an effort to discern the overall status of reclamation in the oil sands this study explores several factors essential to policy capacity: work environment, training, employee attitudes, perceived capacity, policy tools, evidence based work, and networking. Data was collected through key informant interviews with senior policy professionals in government and non-government agencies in Alberta. The following are agencies of interest in this research: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP); Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development (AESRD); Alberta Energy Regulator (AER); Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA); Alberta Environment Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting Agency (AEMERA); Wood Buffalo Environmental Association (WBEA). The aim of this research is to explain how and why reclamation policy is conducted in Alberta's oil sands. This will illuminate government capacity, NGO capacity, and the interaction of these two agency typologies. In addition to answering research questions, another goal of this project is to show interpretive analysis of policy capacity can be used to measure and predict policy effectiveness. The oil sands of Alberta will be the focus of this project, however, future projects could focus on any government policy scenario utilizing evidence-based approaches.