PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

Torque converter turbine noise and cavitation noise over varying speed ratio

These investigations will discuss the operational noise caused by automotive torque converters during speed ratio operation. Two specific cases of torque converter noise will be studied; cavitation, and a monotonic turbine induced noise. Cavitation occurs at or near stall, or zero turbine speed. The bubbles produced due to the extreme torques at low speed ratio operation, upon collapse, may cause a broadband noise that is unwanted by those who are occupying the vehicle as other portions of the vehicle drive train improve acoustically. Turbine induced noise, which occurs at high engine torque at around 0.5 speed ratio, is a narrow-band phenomenon that is audible to vehicle occupants currently. The solution to the turbine induced noise is known, however this study is to gain a better understanding of the mechanics behind this occurrence. The automated torque converter dynamometer test cell was utilized in these experiments to determine the effect of torque converter design parameters on the offset of cavitation and to employ the use a microwave telemetry system to directly measure pressures and structural motion on the turbine. Nearfield acoustics were used as a detection method for all phenomena while using a standardized speed ratio sweep test. Changes in filtered sound pressure levels enabled the ability to detect cavitation desinence. This, in turn, was utilized to determine the effects of various torque converter design parameters, including diameter, torus dimensions, and pump and stator blade designs on cavitation. The on turbine pressures and motion measured with the microwave telemetry were used to understand better the effects of a notched trailing edge turbine blade on the turbine induced noise.