Do increases in oil prices precede U.S. recessions?

This thesis examines the relationship between oil prices and economic activity, and it attempts to address the question: do increases in oil prices (oil shocks) precede U.S. recessions? This paper also applied macroeconomics, either through the direct use of a macroeconomic point of view or using a combination of mathematical and statistical models. Two mathematical and statistical models are used to determine the ability of oil prices to predict recessions in the United States. First, using the binary cyclical (Bry-Boschan method) indicator procedure to test the turning point of oil prices compared with turning points in GDP finds that oil prices almost always turn five month before a recession, suggesting that an oil shock might occur before a recession. Second, the Granger causality test shows that oil prices change do Granger cause U.S. recessions, indicating that oil prices are a useful signal to indicate a U.S. recession. Finally, combining this analysis with the literature, there are several potential explanations that the spike in oil prices result in slower GDP growth and are a contributing factor to U.S. recessions.

The long-term effects of whole-tree harvest at final felling on soil properties in a Norway Spruce (Picea Abies (L) Karst.) Stand

Increased demand for forest-derived biomass has resulted in changes in harvest intensities in Finland. Conventional stem-only harvest (CH) has to some extent been replaced with whole-tree harvest (WTH). The latter involves a greater removal of nutrients from the forest ecosystem, as all the above ground biomass is exported from the site. This has raised concerns that WTH could result in large changes in the nutrient dynamics of a forest stand and could eventually lower its site productivity. Little empirical data exists to support this assumption as only a limited number of studies have been conducted on the topic. A majority of these discuss the short-term effects, thus the long-term consequences remain unknown. The objective of this study was to compare differences in soil properties after CH and WTH in a fertile Norway spruce (Picea abies (L) Karst.) stand in Southern Finland. The site was clear-felled in August 2000 and spruce seedlings were planted in the following summer. Soil sampling in the form of systematic randomized sampling was carried out in May 2011. Changes in base saturation, cation exchange capacity, elemental pools (total and exchangeable) and acidity were studied in both organic and mineral horizons. The results indicate that WTH lowered effective cation exchange capacity and base saturation particularly in the humus layer. The pools of exchangeable Al and Fe were increased in the humus layer, whereas the amount of exchangeable Ca decreased in both layers. WTH also resulted in lower Ca/Al-ratios across the sampled layers. Treatment did not have a significant effect on pH, total pools of elements or on the C/N-ratio of the soil. The results suggest that although the stand possesses significant pools of nutrients at present, WTH, if continued, could have long-term effects on site productivity.

SURFACTANT-OIL INTERACTIONS: FOAMING & TOXICITY

Surfactants find large applications in detergents, paints, coatings, food and pharmaceutical industries. Other than that, much focused work has been carried out in oil recovery in petroleum industries and raw material extraction in mining industries. This is because of their unique structure and ability to simultaneously adhere to materials which are both structurally and physically different. The current thesis focuses on interactions of oil with different commercially available and laboratory synthesized surfactants in terms of characteristics such as foaming, ultrasound exposure and toxicity. Foaming is one important characteristic of surfactants that is widely utilized for oil recovery purposes. Researchers utilize surfactants' special ability to provide foam stability to for more efficient oil herding capability. The foam stability and foam volumes are calculated using static foam height tests. Further dispersion or oil in water emulsion formation is observed using ultrasound sources. As described earlier surfactants are not only used as foams for oil displacement, but they are also used for dispersion purposes where they are key components of dispersant formulations. During such operations, especially in sea conditions where adverse effects on aquatic life are a concern, toxicity of chemicals used becomes an important factor. Our toxicity testing experiments involves different surfactants, solvents and crude oil combinations through exposure to special light luminescent bacteria. The decrease in light intensity of the exposed bacteria is related to toxic effects of the samples.

ECONOMIC PROFITABILITY OF THE BAKKEN, NORTH DAKOTA UNCONVENTIONAL OIL PLAYS BASED ON A TYPICAL WELL PERFORMANCE WITH CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS

Increases in oil prices after the economic recession have been surprising for domestic oil production in the United States since the beginning of 2009. Not only did the conventional oil extraction increase, but unconventional oil production and exploration also improved greatly with the favorable economic conditions. This favorable economy encourages companies to invest in new reservoirs and technological developments. Recently, enhanced drilling techniques including hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have been supporting the domestic economy by way of unconventional shale and tight oil from various U.S. locations. One of the main contributors to this oil boom is the unconventional oil production from the North Dakota Bakken field. Horizontal drilling has increased oil production in the Bakken field, but the economic issues of unconventional oil extraction are still debatable due to volatile oil prices, high decline rates of production, a limited production period, high production costs, and lack of transportation. The economic profitability and viability of the unconventional oil play in the North Dakota Bakken was tested with an economic analysis of average Bakken unconventional well features. Scenario analysis demonstrated that a typical North Dakota Bakken unconventional oil well is profitable and viable as shown by three financial metrics; net present value, internal rate of return, and break-even prices.