Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Performance evaluation of VIP latrines in the Upper West Region of Ghana

The prevalence of Ventilated Improved Pit (VIP) latrines in Ghana suggests that the design must have a high user acceptance. The two key factors attributed to user acceptance of a VIP latrine over an alternative latrine design, such as the basic pit latrine, are its ability to remove foul odors and maintain low fly populations; both of which are a direct result of an adequate ventilation flow rate. Adequate ventilation for odorless conditions in a VIP latrine has been defined by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the World Bank, as an air flow rate equivalent to 6 air changes per hour (6 ACH) of the superstructure’s air volume. Additionally, the UNDP determined that the three primary factors that affect ventilation are: 1) wind passing over the mouth of the vent pipe, 2) wind passing into the superstructure, and 3) solar radiation on to the vent pipe. Previous studies also indicate that vent pipes with larger diameters increase flow rates, and the application of carbonaceous materials to the pit sludge reduces odor and insect prevalence. Furthermore, proper design and construction is critical for the correct functioning of VIP latrines. Under-designing could cause problems with odor and insect control; over-designing would increase costs unnecessarily, thereby making it potentially unaffordable for benefactors to independently construct, repair or replace a VIP latrine. The present study evaluated the design of VIP latrines used by rural communities in the Upper West Region of Ghana with the focus of assessing adequate ventilation for odor removal and insect control. Thirty VIP latrines from six communities in the Upper West Region of Ghana were sampled. Each VIP latrine’s ventilation flow rate and micro-environment was measured using a hot-wire anemometer probe and portable weather station for a minimum of four hours. To capture any temporal or seasonal variations in ventilation, ten of the latrines were sampled monthly over the course of three months for a minimum of 12 hours. A latrine usage survey and a cost analysis were also conducted to further assess the VIP latrine as an appropriated technology for sustainable development in the Upper West Region. It was found that the average air flow rate over the entire sample set was 11.3 m3/hr. The minimum and maximum air flow rates were 0.0 m3/hr and 48.0 m3/hr respectively. Only 1 of the 30 VIP latrines (3%) was found to have an air flow rate greater than the UNDP-defined odorless condition of 6 ACH. Furthermore, 19 VIP latrines (63%) were found to have an average air flow rate of less than half the flow rate required to achieve 6 ACH. The dominant factors affecting ventilation flow rate were wind passing over the mouth of the vent pipe and air buoyancy forces, which were the effect of differences in temperature between the substructure and the ambient environment. Of 76 usable VIP latrines found in one community, 68.4% were in actual use. The cost of a VIP latrine was found to be equivalent to approximately 12% of the mean annual household income for Upper West Region inhabitants.

Evaluation of surface defect detection in reinforced concrete bridge decks using terrestrial LiDAR

Routine bridge inspections require labor intensive and highly subjective visual interpretation to determine bridge deck surface condition. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) a relatively new class of survey instrument has become a popular and increasingly used technology for providing as-built and inventory data in civil applications. While an increasing number of private and governmental agencies possess terrestrial and mobile LiDAR systems, an understanding of the technology’s capabilities and potential applications continues to evolve. LiDAR is a line-of-sight instrument and as such, care must be taken when establishing scan locations and resolution to allow the capture of data at an adequate resolution for defining features that contribute to the analysis of bridge deck surface condition. Information such as the location, area, and volume of spalling on deck surfaces, undersides, and support columns can be derived from properly collected LiDAR point clouds. The LiDAR point clouds contain information that can provide quantitative surface condition information, resulting in more accurate structural health monitoring. LiDAR scans were collected at three study bridges, each of which displayed a varying degree of degradation. A variety of commercially available analysis tools and an independently developed algorithm written in ArcGIS Python (ArcPy) were used to locate and quantify surface defects such as location, volume, and area of spalls. The results were visual and numerically displayed in a user-friendly web-based decision support tool integrating prior bridge condition metrics for comparison. LiDAR data processing procedures along with strengths and limitations of point clouds for defining features useful for assessing bridge deck condition are discussed. Point cloud density and incidence angle are two attributes that must be managed carefully to ensure data collected are of high quality and useful for bridge condition evaluation. When collected properly to ensure effective evaluation of bridge surface condition, LiDAR data can be analyzed to provide a useful data set from which to derive bridge deck condition information.

Evaluation of the performance and cost-effectiveness of pavement sections containing open-graded base courses

Moisture induced distresses have been the prevalent distress type affecting the deterioration of both asphalt and concrete pavement sections. While various surface techniques have been employed over the years to minimize the ingress of moisture into the pavement structural sections, subsurface drainage components like open-graded base courses remain the best alternative in minimizing the time the pavement structural sections are exposed to saturated conditions. This research therefore focuses on assessing the performance and cost-effectiveness of pavement sections containing both treated and untreated open-graded aggregate base materials. Three common roadway aggregates comprising of two virgin aggregates and one recycled aggregate were investigated using four open-ended gradations and two binder types. Laboratory tests were conducted to determine the hydraulic, mechanical and durability characteristics of treated and untreated open-graded mixes made from these three aggregate types. Results of the experimental program show that for the same gradation and mix design types, limestone samples have the greatest drainage capacity, stability to traffic loads and resistance to degradation from environmental conditions like freeze-thaw. However, depending on the gradation and mix design used, all three aggregate types namely limestone, natural gravel and recycled concrete can meet the minimum coefficient of hydraulic conductivity required for good drainage in most pavements. Tests results for both asphalt and cement treated open-graded samples indicate that a percent air void content within the range of 15-25 will produce a treated open-graded base course with sufficient drainage capacity and also long term stability under both traffic and environmental loads. Using the new Mechanistic and Empirical Design Guide software, computer simulations of pavement performance were conducted on pavement sections containing these open-graded base aggregate base materials to determine how the MEPDG predicted pavement performance is sensitive to drainage. Using three truck traffic levels and four climatic regions, results of the computer simulations indicate that the predicted performance was not sensitive to the drainage characteristics of the open-graded base course. Based on the result of the MEPDG predicted pavement performance, the cost-effectiveness of the pavement sections with open-graded base was computed on the assumption that the increase service life experienced by these sections was attributed to the positive effects of subsurface drainage. The two cost analyses used gave two contrasting results with the one indicating that the inclusion of open-graded base courses can lead to substantial savings.

EVALUATION OF NON-STATIONARITY IN ANNUAL MAXIMUM FLOOD SERIES OF MODERATELY IMPAIRED WATERSHEDS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

United States federal agencies assess flood risk using Bulletin 17B procedures which assume annual maximum flood series are stationary. This represents a significant limitation of current flood frequency models as the flood distribution is thereby assumed to be unaffected by trends or periodicity of atmospheric/climatic variables and/or anthropogenic activities. The validity of this assumption is at the core of this thesis, which aims to improve understanding of the forms and potential causes of non-stationarity in flood series for moderately impaired watersheds in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern US. Prior studies investigated non-stationarity in flood series for unimpaired watersheds; however, as the majority of streams are located in areas of increasing human activity, relative and coupled impacts of natural and anthropogenic factors need to be considered such that non-stationary flood frequency models can be developed for flood risk forecasting over relevant planning horizons for large scale water resources planning and management.